The LULUCF sector: land use, land-use change and forestry

Download The LULUCF sector:  land use, land-use change and forestry

Post on 02-Jan-2016

37 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

The LULUCF sector: land use, land-use change and forestry. Ian McCallum International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). LULUCF options considered. Conservation , prevent emissions from existing carbon pools, e.g., avoided deforestation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

  • The LULUCF sector: land use, land-use change and forestry Ian McCallumInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

  • LULUCF options considered

    Conservation, prevent emissions from existing carbon pools, e.g., avoided deforestation 2. Sequestration, increase stocks in existing carbon pools, e.g., reduced tillage (CO2), longer rotations (FM), afforestation on agricultural land 3. Substitution, substitute fossil fuel products with renewables, e.g., sustainable bioenergy: ethanol, biodiesel, fuel for combustion

  • LULUCF mitigation model tree

    Scenarios POP, GDP, Energy demandGeographically explicit data

    Global aggregated databases:

    AGRICULTURE

    Crop production, environmental factors

    FORESTS

    Forest biomass harvest, supply Age, etc.

    LAND USE

    Trade and competition between regions,, market feedbacks (affor, defor bioenergy)Opportunity costsProduction costs

  • Baseline construction and calibratione.g. afforestation, deforestationUNFCCC 2008Tg CO2Reported 2005Baseline in 2020

    Chart11

    74103.0722958.81

    21253.281091.87

    5486.2182419.6

    00

    00

    Deforestation

    Afforestation

    Reported 2005

    Info

    Info

    Country listOptionsScenariosGHG warming potentials

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestationbaseline1

    AustriaEU 27linearMethan21

    BelarusBelaruscubicN2O310

    BelgiumEU 27mix

    BulgariaEU 27Avoided Deforestationbaseline

    CanadaCanadalinearConversion C to CO2

    CroatiaCroatiacubic3.6666666667

    Czech RepublicEU 27mix

    DenmarkEU 27Forest Managementbaseline

    EstoniaEU 27Units

    FinlandEU 27MitigationTg CO2eq. until 2020

    FranceEU 27

    GermanyEU 27

    GreeceEU 27Ag Soil Sequestrationbaseline

    HungaryEU 27

    IcelandIcelandDomestic Biofuel - Biodieselbaseline

    IrelandEU 27

    ItalyEU 27Domestic Biofuel - Ethanolbaseline

    JapanJapan

    LatviaEU 27Domestic Biofuel - Biogasbaseline

    LiechtensteinLiechtenstein

    LithuaniaEU 27Domestic Biofuel - CHPbaseline

    LuxembourgEU 27

    MonacoMonacoOptionsOptions_short

    NetherlandsEU 27AfforestationLU_AFFOR

    New ZealandNew ZealandAg Soil SequestrationLU_SOILSQ

    NorwayNorwayAvoided DeforestationLU_AVDEF

    PolandEU 27Domestic Biofuel - BiodieselLU_BIOD_PROD

    PortugalEU 27Domestic Biofuel - BiogasLU_BGAS_PROD

    RomaniaEU 27Domestic Biofuel - CHPLU_BIOM_CHP

    RussiaRussiaDomestic Biofuel - EthanolLU_ETH_PROD

    SlovakiaEU 27Forest ManagementLU_FMANA

    SloveniaEU 27

    SpainEU 27

    SwedenEU 27

    SwitzerlandSwitzerland

    TurkeyTurkey

    UkraineUkraine

    United KingdomEU 27

    United StatesUnited States

    Potentials

    Potentials

    2005

    AfforestationDeforestationForest managementReportedGHG total (wo LULUCF)AgricultureAfforestationDeforestationForest management

    Option_shortLU_AFFOROption_shortLU_AVDEFOption_shortLU_FMANAAustralia525408898002295974103-22955

    Canada74688956519109221253-26177

    Sum of MitigationSum of MitigationSum of MitigationEU 275165449.77869818463267.3482419.65486.21-431607.83

    YearScenarioGroupCostsTotalYearScenarioGroupCostsTotalYearScenarioGroupCostsTotalRussia213251813507500-169771

    2005BaselineAustralia015.07828512652005BaselineAustralia086.78075741812020BaselineAustralia032.59036United States724148253627100-582241

    Canada01.1934701449Canada018.0966886622Canada0-35.63483

    EU 27072.5566572428EU 27031.6705243081EU 270-3.5765343717

    Russia00.0007808386Russia021.3319277088Russia0474.5957333333

    United States0100.2263302091United States02.4031793118United States0-52.2237466667

    Baseline Total189.055523562Baseline Total160.2830774091Baseline Total415.750982295

    2020BaselineAustralia019.75803429662020BaselineAustralia085.7736228551

    Canada01.3294636386Canada021.5471104179

    EU 270103.0913741248EU 27016.8805569786

    Russia00.0742940558Russia022.7773290789

    United States0112.884870273United States02.4102684471

    Baseline Total237.1380363889Baseline Total149.3888877776annual

    Scenario1Australia10003.807480733Scenario1Australia10001092.1458553685Scenario1Australia2075103.7355

    Canada10000.2635919925Canada1000282.5160428553Canada5069253.4583333333

    EU 27100024.8850593175EU 271000224.2371524973EU 27

    Russia10000.0046557304Russia1000298.4319105804Russia10721536.0483333333

    United States100030.3828208017United States100031.8101310075United States3711185.57

    Option_short(All)

    Sum of Mitigation

    YearScenarioOptionGroupTotal

    2020Scenario1AfforestationAustralia3.8

    Canada0.3

    EU 2724.9

    Russia0.0

    United States30.4

    Ag Soil SequestrationAustralia0.0

    Canada0.0

    EU 2722.3

    Russia0.0

    United States0.0

    DeforestationAustralia1092.1

    Canada282.5

    EU 27224.2

    Russia298.4

    United States31.8

    Forest ManagementAustralia2074.7

    Canada5069.2

    EU 271810.7

    Russia10721.0

    United States3711.4

    Scenario1 Total25397.7743895509

    Potentials

    2005

    2020

    Afforestation

    Pivot

    2005

    2020

    Deforestation

    Pivot (2)

    2020

    Forest management

    All options

    3.807480733

    0.2635919925

    24.8850593175

    0.0046557304

    30.3828208017

    Afforestation

    All Annex1 CO2

    Deforestation

    Afforestation

    2074.71

    5069.1666666667

    1810.7459333333

    10720.9666666667

    3711.4

    Forest management

    Deforestation

    Forest Management

    Deforestation

    Ag Soil Sequestration

    Afforestation

    Forest management

    Deforestation

    Afforestation

    Baseline projection 2020

    Ag Soil Seq

    Deforestation

    Afforestation

    Reported 2005

    BE Biodiesel

    Option_short(All)US

    Sum of Mitigation

    Sum of MitigationScenarioOption_shortCostsTotal

    YearScenarioOptionGroupTotalBaselineLU_AFFOR0521.5712130198

    2005BaselineAfforestation_2Australia15.0782851265LU_AVDEF012.0789155388

    Canada1.1934701449LU_FMANA0-52.2237466667

    EU 2772.5566572428LU_SOILSQ00

    Russia0.0007808386Baseline Total481.426381892

    United States100.2263302091Scenario1LU_AFFOR100.2520253772

    Deforestation_2Australia86.7807574181200.9469159815

    Canada18.0966886622301.614395206

    EU 2731.6705243081503.6169543283

    Russia21.3319277088705.6823223688

    United States2.40317931181008.8113139933

    Baseline Total349.338600971120017.2629690504

    2020BaselineAfforestation_5Australia19.758034296630021.9368471844

    Canada1.329463638650026.5446595021

    EU 27103.0913741248100030.3828208017

    Russia0.0742940558LU_AVDEF100.5424862666

    United States112.884870273201.0160270985

    Deforestation_5Australia85.7736228551302.3783510935

    Canada21.5471104179506.6282085679

    EU 2716.88055697867010.2518382155

    Russia22.777329078910015.8751015137

    United States2.410268447120024.8567582102

    Forest Management_1Australia32.5903630027.5808980501

    Canada-35.6348350030.041880534

    EU 27-3.5765343717100031.8101310075

    Russia474.5957333333LU_FMANA-2.241.03

    United States-52.22374666670.000.00

    Baseline Total802.27790646160.737.59

    6.3938.47

    10.3064.66

    13.23185.57

    Australia

    Sum of Mitigation

    ScenarioOption_shortCostsTotal

    BaselineLU_AFFOR082.8702867232

    LU_AVDEF0409.3915507149

    LU_FMANA032.59036

    LU_SOILSQ00

    Baseline Total524.8521974381

    Scenario1LU_AFFOR100.0177121743

    200.0494104046

    300.1935760669

    500.4538002036

    700.6781773185

    1001.0339134516

    2002.1444070703

    3002.7014170036

    5003.4213630834

    10003.807480733

    LU_AVDEF10188.2942602875

    20386.6058777339

    30579.0944730125

    50762.8108822923

    70857.3320068986

    100930.6560528088

    2001030.656354743

    300.01068.1

    500.01087.2

    1000.01092.1

    LU_FMANA-3.40.3

    0.00.0

    1.31.7

    6.113.6

    8.801520338724.2971666667

    8.8015534783103.7355

    Canada

    Sum of Mitigation

    ScenarioOption_shortCostsTotal

    BaselineLU_AFFOR06.1798608666

    LU_AVDEF095.5662078283

    LU_FMANA0-35.63483

    LU_SOILSQ00

    Baseline Total66.1112386949

    Scenario1LU_AFFOR100.0022098

    200.0099212443

    300.016312718

    500.0344295341

    700.0523446778

    1000.0815065105

    2000.156068512

    3000.2012411389

    5000.2371751125

    10000.2635919925

    LU_AVDEF100.7330631863

    200.936281873

    303.4564227332

    50111.0095646885

    70174.4563456077

    100212.2665093555

    200255.8129047424

    300262.6711980871

    500281.3956628173

    1000282.5160428553

    LU_FMANA-1.5730892111.26115

    00

    1.3738995486.6372166667

    5.683623404617.5743333333

    8.804477912145.5785

    9.9754007241253.4583333333

    BE Biodiesel

    LU_AVDEF

    LU_FMANA

    LU_AFFOR

    BE Ethanol

    LU_AVDEF

    LU_FMANA

    LU_AFFOR

    BE Biogas

    20202020

    33333333

    46464646

    59595959

    72727272

    Biofuel

    Forest management

    Soil sequestration

    Afforestation

    USEPA

    BE CHP

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    0

    LU_AVDEF

    LU_FMANA

    LU_AFFOR

    CountryAustraliaCountry(All)

    DataDataSum of Mitigation

    ScenarioOption_shortCostsAverage of CostsSum of MitigationScenarioOption_shortCostsAverage of Coststotal 2020annual 2020

    Scenario1LU_AFFOR10100.02Scenario1LU_AFFOR-0.303848443219202-9.696151556780800.00.0

    20200.059.6961515567808-19.6961515567808100.40.0

    30300.1919.6961515567808-29.6961515567808201.90.1

    50500.4529.6961515567808-39.6961515567808303.40.2

    70700.6849.6961515567808-59.6961515567808506.50.3

    1001001.0369.6961515567808-79.6961515567808709.50.5

    2002002.1499.6961515567808-109.69615155678110014.40.7

    3003002.70199.696151556781-209.69615155678120031.91.6

    5005003.42299.696151556781-309.69615155678130043.42.2

    100010003.81499.696151556781-509.69615155678150054.32.7

    LU_AVDEF1010188.29999.696151556781-1009.69615155678100064.03.2

    2020386.61LU_AVDEF-0.303848443219202-9.696151556780800.00.0

    3030579.099.6961515567808-19.696151556780810215.810.8

    5050762.8119.6961515567808-29.696151556780820426.521.3

    7070857.3329.6961515567808-39.696151556780830659.433.0

    100100930.6649.6961515567808-59.6961515567808501063.253.2

    2002001030.6669.6961515567808-79.6961515567808701306.765.3

    3003001068.1399.6961515567808-109.6961515567811001509.675.5

    5005001087.17199.696151556781-209.6961515567812001782.789.1

    100010001092.15299.696151556781-309.6961515567813001877.093.9

    LU_FMANA-3.396457379-3.3964573795.40499.696151556781-509.6961515567815001949.497.5

    000.00999.696151556781-1009.6961515567810001977.998.9

    1.34116017661.341160176633.68LU_FMANA-1.39325.916.3

    6.09103065496.0910306549272.991.331020.251.0

    8.80152033878.8015203387485.945.343303.7165.2

    8.80155347838.80155347832074.718.076247.7312.4

    LU_SOILSQ000.009.4523704.61185.2

    Scenario1 Total114.540970181710870.12LU_SOILSQ-0.303848443219202-9.6961515567808000.0

    9.6961515567808-19.69615155678081040.639462.0

    19.6961515567808-29.696151556780820127.76646.4

    29.6961515567808-39.696151556780830195.421429.8

    39.6961515567808-49.696151556780840273.2964613.7

    49.6961515567808-59.696151556780850330.0780616.5

    59.6961515567808-69.696151556780860363.5602218.2

    69.6961515567808-79.696151556780870389.6244219.5

    79.6961515567808-89.696151556780880409.2127420.5

    89.6961515567808-99.696151556780890430.2149621.5

    99.6961515567808-109.696151556781100446.0084422.3

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    LU_AFFOR

    LU_AVDEF

    LU_FMANA

    LU_SOILSQ

    All Annex 1

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    00

    00

    00

    00

    LU_AFFOR

    LU_AVDEF

    LU_FMANA

    Country x

    All options

    GroupCountryOptionOption_shortScenarioGasYearCostsMitigation

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_1LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020100.0177121743

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_2LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020200.0494104046

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_3LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020300.1935760669

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_4LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020500.4538002036

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_5LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020700.6781773185

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_6LU_AFFORScenario1CO220201001.0339134516

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_7LU_AFFORScenario1CO220202002.1444070703

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_8LU_AFFORScenario1CO220203002.7014170036

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_9LU_AFFORScenario1CO220205003.4213630834

    AustraliaAustraliaAfforestation_10LU_AFFORScenario1CO2202010003.807480733

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_1LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020100

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_2LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020200

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_3LU_AFFORScenario1CO2202030-0.0000197267

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_4LU_AFFORScenario1CO2202050-0.0017014433

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_5LU_AFFORScenario1CO2202070-0.0040573867

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_6LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020100-0.0073526933

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_7LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020200-0.01402654

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_8LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020300-0.01540165

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_9LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020500-0.0180343167

    EU 27AustriaAfforestation_10LU_AFFORScenario1CO220201000-0.0180343167

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_1LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020100

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_2LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020200

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_3LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020300

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_4LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020500

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_5LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020700

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_6LU_AFFORScenario1CO220201000

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_7LU_AFFORScenario1CO220202000

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_8LU_AFFORScenario1CO220203000

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_9LU_AFFORScenario1CO220205000

    BelarusBelarusAfforestation_10LU_AFFORScenario1CO2202010000

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_1LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020100

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_2LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020200

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_3LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020300

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_4LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020500

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_5LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020700

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_6LU_AFFORScenario1CO220201000

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_7LU_AFFORScenario1CO220202000.002985433

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_8LU_AFFORScenario1CO220203000.00719026

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_9LU_AFFORScenario1CO220205000.0108086587

    EU 27BelgiumAfforestation_10LU_AFFORScenario1CO2202010000.0181441663

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_1LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020100

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_2LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020200

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_3LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020300

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_4LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020500

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_5LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020700

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_6LU_AFFORScenario1CO220201000

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_7LU_AFFORScenario1CO220202000

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_8LU_AFFORScenario1CO220203000

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_9LU_AFFORScenario1CO220205000

    EU 27BulgariaAfforestation_10LU_AFFORScenario1CO2202010000

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_1LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020100.0022098

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_2LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020200.0099212443

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_3LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020300.016312718

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_4LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020500.0344295341

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_5LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020700.0523446778

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_6LU_AFFORScenario1CO220201000.0815065105

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_7LU_AFFORScenario1CO220202000.156068512

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_8LU_AFFORScenario1CO220203000.2012411389

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_9LU_AFFORScenario1CO220205000.2371751125

    CanadaCanadaAfforestation_10LU_AFFORScenario1CO2202010000.2635919925

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_1LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020100.00194656

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_2LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020200.0045299063

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_3LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020300.0063085697

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_4LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020500.008445393

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_5LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020700.0109567297

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_6LU_AFFORScenario1CO220201000.0109567297

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_7LU_AFFORScenario1CO220202000.0138529563

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_8LU_AFFORScenario1CO220203000.0138529563

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_9LU_AFFORScenario1CO220205000.0138529563

    CroatiaCroatiaAfforestation_10LU_AFFORScenario1CO2202010000.0138529563

    EU 27Czech RepublicAfforestation_1LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020100

    EU 27Czech RepublicAfforestation_2LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020200

    EU 27Czech RepublicAfforestation_3LU_AFFORScenario1CO22020300

    EU 27Czech Repu...

Recommended

View more >