the lulucf sector: land use, land-use change and forestry
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The LULUCF sector: land use, land-use change and forestry. Ian McCallum International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). LULUCF options considered. Conservation , prevent emissions from existing carbon pools, e.g., avoided deforestation - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The LULUCF sector: land use, land-use change and forestry
Ian McCallumInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
LULUCF options considered
1. Conservation, prevent emissions from existing carbon pools, e.g., avoided deforestation
2. Sequestration, increase stocks in existing carbon pools, e.g., reduced tillage (CO2), longer rotations (FM), afforestation on agricultural land
3. Substitution, substitute fossil fuel products with renewables, e.g., sustainable bioenergy: ethanol, biodiesel, fuel for combustion
LULUCF mitigation model tree
P
Mitigation
Scenarios POP, GDP, Energy demand
Geo
grap
hica
lly e
xplic
it d
ata
Glob
al aggregate
d data
bases:
AGRICULTURE
Crop production, environmental factors
FORESTS
Forest biomass harvest, supply Age, etc.
LAND USE
Trade and competition between regions,, market feedbacks (affor, defor bioenergy)Opportunity costsProduction costs
Baseline construction and calibratione.g. afforestation, deforestation
Reported 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Aus
tral
ia
Can
ada
EU
27
Rus
sia
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Afforestation
Deforestation
UNFCCC 2008
Tg
CO
2
Baseline projection 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Aus
tral
ia
Can
ada
EU
27
Rus
sia
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Reported 2005 Baseline in 2020
Marginal abatement curves:Afforestation until 2020
Afforestation
$/to
nne
CO
2
Percent of 1990 total emissions
Marginal abatement curves:Deforestation until 2020
$/to
nne
CO
2
Percent of 1990 total emissions
Marginal abatement curve:Forest management until 2020
$/to
nne
CO
2
Percent of 1990 total emissions
Limitations and caveats
• Data issues– Global land cover, NPP– Forest inventories– Global statistics on forests, products, etc.
• Baseline assumptions– Forest management, deforestation– Not all countries reporting
• Market– Market feedbacks are included for Afforestation &
Deforestation– Forest management: costs expected to rise in case of timber
shortage
Summary
• Work in progress
• Mitigation potentials for– Afforestation & Deforestation < 1%,– Forest Management < 5% of 1990 emissions, until 2020 (preliminary
results)
• Large uncertainties specific to the biosphere