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The Human Population and it’s impact

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Page 1: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

The Human Population and it’s impact

Page 2: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

How Has the Human Population Grown How Has the Human Population Grown HistoricallyHistorically

A. Early Hunter Gatherers1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the Earth

2. Practiced Intentional Birth Control

B. Rise of Agriculture1. Necessary for Survival

a. Animals became extinct via predation and altered habitat

b. Humans began to cultivate own food

Page 3: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

C. Agriculture Gives Rise to Cities1. Food Produced in Country, Consumed in City

a. Food wastes are no longer returned to soil

b. Soil becomes less productive

2. Waste of Populations Concentrated in Cities

3. Population Control in Medieval Societiesa. Infanticide

b. Plagues

D. Industrialization1. View of Children During Early Phases of Industrial Growth

a. Valued as cheap source of income and cheap labor

b. Exponential growth of populations

2. By 1900s, Birth Rate in Industrialized World Droppeda. Rise in standards of living

b. Safe and inexpensive means of birth control introduced

c. Increase in the cost of child rearing

Page 4: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 5: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1750 1950 1995 2025 2100

developed countries

less developed countries

MILLIONS

Page 6: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Current World Population• Population Clock Vital Events (per time unit)

Global population was 6,379,870,732On November 2, 2004 at 11:05 am

• The global population grows by: – Nearly 4 persons per seconds– Over 225,000 persons per day – Over 82 million persons per year

Page 7: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Uneven distribution of population growth

• Developed – 0.1% per year

• Developing – 1.5% per year

Page 8: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Projections in 2050

• 10.7 billion

• World population growth – 1.22% per year

Page 9: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

How Much is a Billion?How Much is a Billion?

• 1,000 seconds = 16.7 minutes

• 1 million-s = 16,677 min = 11.6 days

• 1 billion-s = 11,574 days = 31.7 years

• 1,000 pennies = ~ 88 ounces = 5.5 pounds

• 1 million pennies = 5,500 pounds (~1-Suburban)

• 1 billion pennies = 2,750 tons (~2 Space Shuttles)

Page 10: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Factors for population increase

• ability to expand into new habitats and climate zones

• emergence of modern agriculture

• improved health care, sanitation,sourcs of water

Page 11: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Human Population DynamicsHuman Population Dynamics• There are just three sources of change

in population size —1. fertility (births)2. mortality (deaths)

A. "natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births

3. migration– Net migration is the number of

immigrants minus emigrants

Page 12: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Rates of Global Pop. ChangeRates of Global Pop. Changeuse: International Data Base http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html,

then Online Demographic Aggregation

• CBR (crude birth rate) = # births / 1000 population1990: 24 now: 20.6

• CDR (crude death rate) = # deaths / 1000 population1990: 9 now: 8.8

• Growth Rate = (b + i) – (d + e)1990: 1.5% now: 1.19%

– growth rates have come down

Page 13: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 14: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 15: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 16: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Human Population DynamicsHuman Population Dynamics• Total fertility rate (TFR)

– The average number of children born to a woman

– Average in developed countries = 1.5

– Average in developing countries = 3.8

– Worldwide 1990: 3.1 now: 2.76

• Replacement fertility rate (RFR)– The number of children a couple must have to replace

themselves

– A TFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates

– Africa RFR = 2.5

Page 17: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Factors affecting fertility rate

• children part of labor force

• cost of raising and educating children

• availability of pension system

• World TFR has dropped from 5. 7 to 1.6

Page 18: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Factors affecting death rate

• increased life expectancy

• urbanization

• education and job opportunities for women

Page 19: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Infant Mortality Infant Mortality RateRate

measure of a nations quality of life

• infant deaths per 1000 live births (infant < 1 yr)– 1990: 62 now: 52.4

(normal in 1900: 200)

Page 21: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

• Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1.7 per cent; if this rate continues, the population will double in 42 years.

• Unabated, such a rate would lead to a point about 2000 years hence when the mass of humanity would weigh more, and be larger, than the Earth.

• But, the growth rate is decreasing

Page 22: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Graphic device: bar graph• shows the age and gender composition of a region• pre-reproductive, reproductive, post-reproductive• horizontal axis: gender

– male: left-hand female: right-hand– absolute number of people or %

• vertical axis: age– 5-year or 10-year age groups

Page 23: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population Pyramid with Population Pyramid with young cohortsyoung cohorts

-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85 OR

female

male

Page 24: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Population Pyramids on the Web

• High Growth: Afghanistan

Page 25: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 26: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Population Pyramids on the Web

Moderate Growth: Mexico

Page 27: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 28: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Population Pyramids on the Web

• Zero Growth: U.S.

Page 29: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 30: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Tracking the baby-boom generation in the United StatesTracking the baby-boom generation in the United States

Page 31: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 32: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Population Pyramids on the Web

• Negative Growth: Italy

Page 33: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 34: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Effects of Population DeclineEffects of Population Decline• As percentage of 60+ aged people increases,

population begins decline• 60+population increase --> severe economic and

social problems because 60+ consume– more medical care– Social Security– costly public services

• Labor shortages require automation & immigration

Page 35: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

• Movement of a nation from high population growth to low population as it develops economically

• Transition as a result of four stages– Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high– Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high;

growth rate rises– Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living

rises; growth rate falls– Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or

to a negative rate

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

Page 36: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 37: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Five Stages of the Demographic Five Stages of the Demographic TransitionTransition

• Used to be 4, now 5 stages

• birth rates, death rates and growth rates systematically change through time as societies change:– modernize, urbanize– gain access to technology

Page 38: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Stage 1Stage 1• high birth rates, high

(at time erratic) death rates, low growth rates

• stage for much of human history, traditional societies

• practically no country today

Page 39: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Stage 2Stage 2• high birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates• improvements in sanitation (water) and medicine• in Europe during Industrial Revolution• in developing countries since the 50s/60s• much of Africa today, some countries of Asia

(Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)

Page 40: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Stage 3Stage 3• continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates, growth rates decline from high to lower levels• change in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate,

in particular infant mortality rate• economic change: urbanization (incentive to have

fewer children)• Mexico today

Page 41: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Stage 4 & 5Stage 4 & 5

• Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low growth rates

– United States today

• Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)– several countries of Europe today (Austria)

Page 42: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population Pyramids and Population Pyramids and Demographic StagesDemographic Stages

• characteristics shapes of ‘pyramids’– wide base (true pyramid)– wide middle (bulge), somewhat wider base– urn- or bottle-shaped– reversed pyramid

• different shapes--different dynamics

Page 43: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population Pyramid and Demographic TransitionPopulation Pyramid and Demographic Transition• Stage 2: wide base• stage 3: wide middle

• stage 4: slender

• stage 5: narrow base

Page 44: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population Pyramid and Demographic TransitionPopulation Pyramid and Demographic Transition• Stage 2: wide base

• stage 3: wide middle• stage 4: slender

• stage 5: narrow base

Page 45: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population Pyramid and Demographic TransitionPopulation Pyramid and Demographic Transition• Stage 2: wide base

• stage 3: wide middle

• stage 4: slender• stage 5: narrow base

Page 46: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Population Pyramid and Demographic TransitionPopulation Pyramid and Demographic Transition• Stage 2: wide base

• stage 3: wide middle

• stage 4: slender

• stage 5: narrow base

Page 47: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

What Is What Is Family PlanningFamily Planning?

A. Definition

1. Measures enabling parents to control number of children (if they so desire)

B. Goals of Family Planning

1. Not to limit births

2. For couples to have healthy children

3. For couples to be able to care for their children

4. For couples to have the number of children that they want

Page 48: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Sustainable Cities

Page 49: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Definitions• Urban (metropolitan) area = town plus its

suburbs– City = large number of people with a variety of

professions who depend on resources from the outside of city boundary

• Rural area = an area with a population less than 2,500 people– Village = group of rural households liked by custom,

culture,family ties. Historical utilization of natural resources

Page 50: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Urbanization & Urban growth

• Degree of urbanization is percentage of population living in area of greater than 2,500 people

• Urban growth due to:– natural increase - births– immigration - poor are pulled to urban areas or are

pushed from rural areas

• Trends of urban growth:– Increase of 2% to 45% of people in urban areas since

1950– By 2050 about 66% of the world’s people will be living

in urban areas.

Page 51: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Urbanization & Urban growth

• The number of large cities is mushrooming– Today, more than 400 cities have over 1 mil. or more

people.

– 18 megacities with over 10 mil. People i.e.Tokyo (26 mil), Mexico City (18 mil), New York (17 mil).

– 4 Hypercities (more than 20 million people)- Mumbai(India) , Lagos(Nigeria), Dakha(Bangladesh) Sao Paulo(Brazil)

– 2009 :38% of the people in live in cities.

– 2025 it will be 54%.

– Many of these cities are already short on water, have waste & pollution problems.

Page 52: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Urbanization & Urban GrowthUrbanization & Urban Growth

• Urban growth is slower in developed countries– 75% of the people live in cities. But by 2030 it will be

81%.

• Poverty is becoming increasingly urbanized– slums, squatter settlements and shantytowns– at least 1 billion people live in crowed slums of inner cities.

No access to water, sewer, electricity, education etc. 100 mil people are homeless & sleep on the streets

• Case study - Mexico City

Page 53: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

United States Urbanization1800- 2008 = 5%-79%

• Migration from rural areas• Migration to developed rural areas• Large central cities to suburbs• North east to South and West• Urban sprawl, growth of low-density development

on the edge of cities. Encouraged by:- availability of cheap land, (forests, agriculture fields etc.).- government loans guarantees for new single-family homes- government & state funding of highways- low-cost gasoline encourage car use- low interest mortgage

Page 54: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Urban sprawl: growth of low density housing

• availability of cheap land

• government loans for new single family homes

• government and state funding of highways

• low cost gasoline

• tax laws encourage home ownership

• multiple political jurisdictions which do not work together to control urban growth

Page 55: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Concentric Circle ModelConcentric Circle Model

1. Central business district (CBD)

2. Deteriorating transition zone

3. Worker’s homes

4. Middle-class suburbs

5. Commuter's zone

Page 56: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Sector ModelSector Model

1. High-rent residential2. Intermediate-rent residential3. Low-rent residential4. Education and recreation5. Transportation6. Industrial7. Core (CBD)

Page 57: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Multiple-Nuclei ModelMultiple-Nuclei Model

1. CBD

2. Wholesale, light manufacturing

3. Low-rent residential

4. Intermediate-rent residential

5. High-rent residential

6. Heavy manufacturing

7. Outlying business district

8. Residential Suburb

9. Industrial Suburb

Page 58: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Major Urban Problems in U.S.

• Deteriorating services

• Aging infrastructures

• Budget crunches from lost tax revenues as businesses and affluent people leave

• Rising poverty with violence, drugs, decay

• Urban sprawl - growth of low-density development on edges of cities and towns– 9 consequences of “bad growth”

Page 59: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Advantages of UrbanizationAdvantages of Urbanization

– recycling more economically feasible

– decreased birth rates reduces environmental pressures

– per capita expenditures on environmental protection high in urban areas

– population concentration impacts biodiversity less

Page 60: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Disadvantages of Urbanization

• Destruction of plant life - what is $ value?• Cities produce little of own food• Urban heat island effect --> dust dome• Huge ecological footprint• Water supply and flooding problems

– 5 ways to reduce demand on reservoirs and waste treatment systems

• High pollution exposure• Noise pollution

Page 61: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

•The enormous amount of heat generated creates an urban heat island

•Additional heat changes climate of surrounding area

Page 62: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the
Page 63: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Transportation and Urban DevelopmentTransportation and Urban Development

• Determines where people live, where they go to work and buy stuff, how much land is paved and exposure to air pollution

• Cities grow up if they can’t grow out; more prone to use mass transit

• Urban sprawl due to cheap gas and land and highways; dispersed car-centered cities use 10x more energy

Page 64: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Smart growth tools for cities

• Regulations

• Zoning

• PlanningProtection

• Taxes

• Tax Break

• Revitalization

Page 65: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

International Development DaysVancouver, BC October 2 – 4, 2002

Maureen C. Shaw

Industrial Accident Prevention Association

October 3, 2002

Email: [email protected] Website: www.iapa.on.ca

Page 66: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

To improve the quality of life in workplaces and communities we serve by being an internationally recognized leader in providing effective programs, products and services for the prevention of injury and illness.

"A World where risks are controlled because everyone believes suffering and loss are morally, socially and economically unacceptable."

Page 67: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Essential Components of Sustainable Cities

Environmental Integrity

• living within ecological limits

• protecting natural resources

• responsible consumption patterns; re-use & recycling

• measurable carrying capacity indicators

Quality of Life

• diversity

• cooperation

• health

• education

• communication

• compassion

• efficient, affordable, accessible transportation

• linking jobs to housing and communities

• honouring culture

• pluralism and tolerance

Economic Security• local, regional economic viability

• opportunities for employment

• economic justice/equity

• reduce gap between rich and poor

• economic security

• appropriate technology and economics

• long term view not short term gains

Democratic Participation

• communication, education, information, collaboration

• all stakeholders represented and involved

• power from within the community

• belief in the possibility of change

• democracy

• accountability

• personal dignity

• grassroots organizations

Source

Dr. Warren Flint

Five E’s Unlimited

Page 68: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Traditional Corporate

Responsibilities

Ensuring Health, Safety, Wellness

& Security of Employees

Management of Natural Resources

Conservation

Minimizing Waste

Recycling

Minimizing Pollution

Compliance with Regulations &

Legislation

Based on European Sustainable Cities Report

Page 69: The Human Population and it’s impact. How Has the Human Population Grown Historically A. Early Hunter Gatherers 1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the

Corporate Community &

Workplace Leadership Imperatives

Sharing Best Practices

Mentoring Concern for

Individuals Colleagues & Neighbours

Social Responsibility to

Community & Workplace Activities

Support of Cultural Heritage

Political Influence Locally

Nationally

Maureen C. Shaw - IAPA