the human population and it’s impact. how has the human population grown historically a. early...
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The Human Population and it’s impact
How Has the Human Population Grown How Has the Human Population Grown HistoricallyHistorically
A. Early Hunter Gatherers1. Nomadic, With a Strong Sense of the Earth
2. Practiced Intentional Birth Control
B. Rise of Agriculture1. Necessary for Survival
a. Animals became extinct via predation and altered habitat
b. Humans began to cultivate own food
C. Agriculture Gives Rise to Cities1. Food Produced in Country, Consumed in City
a. Food wastes are no longer returned to soil
b. Soil becomes less productive
2. Waste of Populations Concentrated in Cities
3. Population Control in Medieval Societiesa. Infanticide
b. Plagues
D. Industrialization1. View of Children During Early Phases of Industrial Growth
a. Valued as cheap source of income and cheap labor
b. Exponential growth of populations
2. By 1900s, Birth Rate in Industrialized World Droppeda. Rise in standards of living
b. Safe and inexpensive means of birth control introduced
c. Increase in the cost of child rearing
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1750 1950 1995 2025 2100
developed countries
less developed countries
MILLIONS
Current World Population• Population Clock Vital Events (per time unit)
Global population was 6,379,870,732On November 2, 2004 at 11:05 am
• The global population grows by: – Nearly 4 persons per seconds– Over 225,000 persons per day – Over 82 million persons per year
Uneven distribution of population growth
• Developed – 0.1% per year
• Developing – 1.5% per year
Projections in 2050
• 10.7 billion
• World population growth – 1.22% per year
How Much is a Billion?How Much is a Billion?
• 1,000 seconds = 16.7 minutes
• 1 million-s = 16,677 min = 11.6 days
• 1 billion-s = 11,574 days = 31.7 years
• 1,000 pennies = ~ 88 ounces = 5.5 pounds
• 1 million pennies = 5,500 pounds (~1-Suburban)
• 1 billion pennies = 2,750 tons (~2 Space Shuttles)
Factors for population increase
• ability to expand into new habitats and climate zones
• emergence of modern agriculture
• improved health care, sanitation,sourcs of water
Human Population DynamicsHuman Population Dynamics• There are just three sources of change
in population size —1. fertility (births)2. mortality (deaths)
A. "natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births
3. migration– Net migration is the number of
immigrants minus emigrants
Rates of Global Pop. ChangeRates of Global Pop. Changeuse: International Data Base http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html,
then Online Demographic Aggregation
• CBR (crude birth rate) = # births / 1000 population1990: 24 now: 20.6
• CDR (crude death rate) = # deaths / 1000 population1990: 9 now: 8.8
• Growth Rate = (b + i) – (d + e)1990: 1.5% now: 1.19%
– growth rates have come down
Human Population DynamicsHuman Population Dynamics• Total fertility rate (TFR)
– The average number of children born to a woman
– Average in developed countries = 1.5
– Average in developing countries = 3.8
– Worldwide 1990: 3.1 now: 2.76
• Replacement fertility rate (RFR)– The number of children a couple must have to replace
themselves
– A TFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates
– Africa RFR = 2.5
Factors affecting fertility rate
• children part of labor force
• cost of raising and educating children
• availability of pension system
• World TFR has dropped from 5. 7 to 1.6
Factors affecting death rate
• increased life expectancy
• urbanization
• education and job opportunities for women
Infant Mortality Infant Mortality RateRate
measure of a nations quality of life
• infant deaths per 1000 live births (infant < 1 yr)– 1990: 62 now: 52.4
(normal in 1900: 200)
http://www.povertymap.net/pub/mipwa/sections/w-global/health-sanit/infant-mortality-2.htm
• Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1.7 per cent; if this rate continues, the population will double in 42 years.
• Unabated, such a rate would lead to a point about 2000 years hence when the mass of humanity would weigh more, and be larger, than the Earth.
• But, the growth rate is decreasing
Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Graphic device: bar graph• shows the age and gender composition of a region• pre-reproductive, reproductive, post-reproductive• horizontal axis: gender
– male: left-hand female: right-hand– absolute number of people or %
• vertical axis: age– 5-year or 10-year age groups
Population Pyramid with Population Pyramid with young cohortsyoung cohorts
-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85 OR
female
male
Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Population Pyramids on the Web
• High Growth: Afghanistan
Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Population Pyramids on the Web
Moderate Growth: Mexico
Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Population Pyramids on the Web
• Zero Growth: U.S.
Tracking the baby-boom generation in the United StatesTracking the baby-boom generation in the United States
Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Population Pyramids on the Web
• Negative Growth: Italy
Effects of Population DeclineEffects of Population Decline• As percentage of 60+ aged people increases,
population begins decline• 60+population increase --> severe economic and
social problems because 60+ consume– more medical care– Social Security– costly public services
• Labor shortages require automation & immigration
• Movement of a nation from high population growth to low population as it develops economically
• Transition as a result of four stages– Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high– Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high;
growth rate rises– Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living
rises; growth rate falls– Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or
to a negative rate
Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition
Five Stages of the Demographic Five Stages of the Demographic TransitionTransition
• Used to be 4, now 5 stages
• birth rates, death rates and growth rates systematically change through time as societies change:– modernize, urbanize– gain access to technology
Stage 1Stage 1• high birth rates, high
(at time erratic) death rates, low growth rates
• stage for much of human history, traditional societies
• practically no country today
Stage 2Stage 2• high birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates• improvements in sanitation (water) and medicine• in Europe during Industrial Revolution• in developing countries since the 50s/60s• much of Africa today, some countries of Asia
(Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)
Stage 3Stage 3• continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates, growth rates decline from high to lower levels• change in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate,
in particular infant mortality rate• economic change: urbanization (incentive to have
fewer children)• Mexico today
Stage 4 & 5Stage 4 & 5
• Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low growth rates
– United States today
• Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)– several countries of Europe today (Austria)
Population Pyramids and Population Pyramids and Demographic StagesDemographic Stages
• characteristics shapes of ‘pyramids’– wide base (true pyramid)– wide middle (bulge), somewhat wider base– urn- or bottle-shaped– reversed pyramid
• different shapes--different dynamics
Population Pyramid and Demographic TransitionPopulation Pyramid and Demographic Transition• Stage 2: wide base• stage 3: wide middle
• stage 4: slender
• stage 5: narrow base
Population Pyramid and Demographic TransitionPopulation Pyramid and Demographic Transition• Stage 2: wide base
• stage 3: wide middle• stage 4: slender
• stage 5: narrow base
Population Pyramid and Demographic TransitionPopulation Pyramid and Demographic Transition• Stage 2: wide base
• stage 3: wide middle
• stage 4: slender• stage 5: narrow base
Population Pyramid and Demographic TransitionPopulation Pyramid and Demographic Transition• Stage 2: wide base
• stage 3: wide middle
• stage 4: slender
• stage 5: narrow base
What Is What Is Family PlanningFamily Planning?
A. Definition
1. Measures enabling parents to control number of children (if they so desire)
B. Goals of Family Planning
1. Not to limit births
2. For couples to have healthy children
3. For couples to be able to care for their children
4. For couples to have the number of children that they want
Sustainable Cities
Definitions• Urban (metropolitan) area = town plus its
suburbs– City = large number of people with a variety of
professions who depend on resources from the outside of city boundary
• Rural area = an area with a population less than 2,500 people– Village = group of rural households liked by custom,
culture,family ties. Historical utilization of natural resources
Urbanization & Urban growth
• Degree of urbanization is percentage of population living in area of greater than 2,500 people
• Urban growth due to:– natural increase - births– immigration - poor are pulled to urban areas or are
pushed from rural areas
• Trends of urban growth:– Increase of 2% to 45% of people in urban areas since
1950– By 2050 about 66% of the world’s people will be living
in urban areas.
Urbanization & Urban growth
• The number of large cities is mushrooming– Today, more than 400 cities have over 1 mil. or more
people.
– 18 megacities with over 10 mil. People i.e.Tokyo (26 mil), Mexico City (18 mil), New York (17 mil).
– 4 Hypercities (more than 20 million people)- Mumbai(India) , Lagos(Nigeria), Dakha(Bangladesh) Sao Paulo(Brazil)
– 2009 :38% of the people in live in cities.
– 2025 it will be 54%.
– Many of these cities are already short on water, have waste & pollution problems.
Urbanization & Urban GrowthUrbanization & Urban Growth
• Urban growth is slower in developed countries– 75% of the people live in cities. But by 2030 it will be
81%.
• Poverty is becoming increasingly urbanized– slums, squatter settlements and shantytowns– at least 1 billion people live in crowed slums of inner cities.
No access to water, sewer, electricity, education etc. 100 mil people are homeless & sleep on the streets
• Case study - Mexico City
United States Urbanization1800- 2008 = 5%-79%
• Migration from rural areas• Migration to developed rural areas• Large central cities to suburbs• North east to South and West• Urban sprawl, growth of low-density development
on the edge of cities. Encouraged by:- availability of cheap land, (forests, agriculture fields etc.).- government loans guarantees for new single-family homes- government & state funding of highways- low-cost gasoline encourage car use- low interest mortgage
Urban sprawl: growth of low density housing
• availability of cheap land
• government loans for new single family homes
• government and state funding of highways
• low cost gasoline
• tax laws encourage home ownership
• multiple political jurisdictions which do not work together to control urban growth
Concentric Circle ModelConcentric Circle Model
1. Central business district (CBD)
2. Deteriorating transition zone
3. Worker’s homes
4. Middle-class suburbs
5. Commuter's zone
Sector ModelSector Model
1. High-rent residential2. Intermediate-rent residential3. Low-rent residential4. Education and recreation5. Transportation6. Industrial7. Core (CBD)
Multiple-Nuclei ModelMultiple-Nuclei Model
1. CBD
2. Wholesale, light manufacturing
3. Low-rent residential
4. Intermediate-rent residential
5. High-rent residential
6. Heavy manufacturing
7. Outlying business district
8. Residential Suburb
9. Industrial Suburb
Major Urban Problems in U.S.
• Deteriorating services
• Aging infrastructures
• Budget crunches from lost tax revenues as businesses and affluent people leave
• Rising poverty with violence, drugs, decay
• Urban sprawl - growth of low-density development on edges of cities and towns– 9 consequences of “bad growth”
Advantages of UrbanizationAdvantages of Urbanization
– recycling more economically feasible
– decreased birth rates reduces environmental pressures
– per capita expenditures on environmental protection high in urban areas
– population concentration impacts biodiversity less
Disadvantages of Urbanization
• Destruction of plant life - what is $ value?• Cities produce little of own food• Urban heat island effect --> dust dome• Huge ecological footprint• Water supply and flooding problems
– 5 ways to reduce demand on reservoirs and waste treatment systems
• High pollution exposure• Noise pollution
•The enormous amount of heat generated creates an urban heat island
•Additional heat changes climate of surrounding area
Transportation and Urban DevelopmentTransportation and Urban Development
• Determines where people live, where they go to work and buy stuff, how much land is paved and exposure to air pollution
• Cities grow up if they can’t grow out; more prone to use mass transit
• Urban sprawl due to cheap gas and land and highways; dispersed car-centered cities use 10x more energy
Smart growth tools for cities
• Regulations
• Zoning
• PlanningProtection
• Taxes
• Tax Break
• Revitalization
International Development DaysVancouver, BC October 2 – 4, 2002
Maureen C. Shaw
Industrial Accident Prevention Association
October 3, 2002
Email: [email protected] Website: www.iapa.on.ca
To improve the quality of life in workplaces and communities we serve by being an internationally recognized leader in providing effective programs, products and services for the prevention of injury and illness.
"A World where risks are controlled because everyone believes suffering and loss are morally, socially and economically unacceptable."
Essential Components of Sustainable Cities
Environmental Integrity
• living within ecological limits
• protecting natural resources
• responsible consumption patterns; re-use & recycling
• measurable carrying capacity indicators
Quality of Life
• diversity
• cooperation
• health
• education
• communication
• compassion
• efficient, affordable, accessible transportation
• linking jobs to housing and communities
• honouring culture
• pluralism and tolerance
Economic Security• local, regional economic viability
• opportunities for employment
• economic justice/equity
• reduce gap between rich and poor
• economic security
• appropriate technology and economics
• long term view not short term gains
Democratic Participation
• communication, education, information, collaboration
• all stakeholders represented and involved
• power from within the community
• belief in the possibility of change
• democracy
• accountability
• personal dignity
• grassroots organizations
Source
Dr. Warren Flint
Five E’s Unlimited
Traditional Corporate
Responsibilities
Ensuring Health, Safety, Wellness
& Security of Employees
Management of Natural Resources
Conservation
Minimizing Waste
Recycling
Minimizing Pollution
Compliance with Regulations &
Legislation
Based on European Sustainable Cities Report
Corporate Community &
Workplace Leadership Imperatives
Sharing Best Practices
Mentoring Concern for
Individuals Colleagues & Neighbours
Social Responsibility to
Community & Workplace Activities
Support of Cultural Heritage
Political Influence Locally
Nationally
Maureen C. Shaw - IAPA