The global livestock sector:Trends and health implications

Biennial meeting of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (RSTMH) "Measuring progress” Oxford, 27 September 2014

Timothy Robinson,

William Wint, Giulia Conchedda, Giuseppina Cinardi, Thomas Van Boeckel, Bernard Bett and Marius Gilbert

Overview

• The global livestock sector• Links between livestock and health• Trends and drivers• Mapping livestock distributions and

production systems• Applications for targetting and impact

assessment• Data dissemination• Outlook for measuring progress

The global livestock sector

• Livestock numbers (FAOSTAT 2012)• 1.8 billion cattle and buffalo• 2.5 billion sheep and goats• 1.5 billion pigs• 30.6 billion poultry

• Sector accounts for 30% of the land surface

• 70% of all agricultural land• 8% of human water use

The global livestock sector

Health and nutrition

Poverty and

growth

Climate and natural

resource use

Livestock production

Links between livestock and health

• Poverty• Poor people are less healthy• Livestock contribute to livelihoods and resilience• Economic losses from endemic diseases of

production

• Nutrition• Positive: Hunger, malnutrition, stunting, cognitive

impairment• Negative: Obesity and associated health risks

• Diseases• Food-borne diseases• 39% OIE diseases are zoonotic• Aflatoxin poisoning• Antimicrobial resistance

• Climate change• Reduced food security• Heat waves, floods and droughts• Changing VBD risks

Livelihoods and resilience

• Value of livestock sector c. $1.4 trillion• Account for 40% of agricultural GDP• Employs 1.3 billion people• Provides 17% of calories and 26% of

protein, globally• Provides valuable micronutrients to the

poor• Provides livelihoods for 800 million

poor small-holders• Contribute nutrients and traction for

mixed farming• Utilises primary production of no direct

value for human consumption• Serves as a bank, and insurance against

hard times (e.g. drought)

Otte et al. (2013)

• More than 2 billion are sickened each year from the food they eat

• Millions more die from zoonotic diseases that emerge from, or persist in, agricultural ecosystems

• Diseases recently emerged from animals make up 25% of the infectious disease burden in least developed countries and kill one in ten people who live there

➜ We have proven agricultural interventions which can tackle the diseases associated with agriculture

➜ $25 billion invested in zoonotic disease control would bring benefits worth $125 billion

Diseases related to livestock farming

(Source: Grace 2012)

Nutrition: the double-edged sword

• 17% of calories and 26% of protein• Valuable micronutrients to the poor• We live in a world more than with 800 million

hungry and 165 million stunted children

.. BUT …

• Over one third of all adults across the world – 1.46 billion people – are obese or overweight

• Between 1980 and 2008, the numbers of people affected in the developing world more than tripled, from 250 million to 904 million

• In high-income countries the numbers increased by 1.7 times over the same period

• Diets are changing with income rises in developing countries, shifting from starch to meat, milk, fats and sugar, fruit and vegetables

Livestock are key to both sides

Livestock’s long shadow

• Land degradation• Sector accounts for 30% of the land surface • 70% of all agricultural land• 20% of world’s pastures are degraded through

overgrazing, compaction, and erosion

• Anthropogenic GHG emissions• Sector accounts for 18% (±26%)• Land use change - CO2 (32%)

• Enteric fermentation - CH4 (25%)

• Manure and slurry - N2O (31%)

• Water resource depletion/degradation• Sector accounts for 8% of human water use• Most for irrigation of feed-crops• Water pollution (waste, pesticides, etc.)

• Biodiversity losses• Livestock threaten 306/825 biomes globally

Steinfeld et al. (2006)

Livestock Systems - Environment

➜ ADAPTATION➜ Capacity to respond

to changes

Livestock Systems

Environment

GHG emissions

Climate change

Carbon sequestration

Land use change

Pollution

Water resource availability

Feed availability

Nutrient cycling

Land degradation

Biodiversity

➜ MITIGATION➜ Climate-smart

agriculture

Source: Gerber et al. (2013)

• 14.5% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions• Beef production generates 6 times more GHG emissions per unit of protein

than pork, chicken and eggs

Kil

og

ram

s o

f C

O2e

pe

r k

ilo

gra

m o

f p

rote

inContribution to climate change

The global livestock sector

Health and nutrition

Poverty and

growth

Climate and natural

resource use

Livestock productionPopulation

growth

Policie

s a

nd

in

sti

tuti

on

al

ch

an

ge

Economic

growth

Urb

anis

atio

n

Trade &

marke

ting

Changing diets

Globalisatio

n Climate

change

Feed prices

Energy prices

Transport

Surface temperature projections

Source: IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report

World population projection (UN 2012)

Source: Gerland et al. 2014Year

Tota

l pop

ulati

on (b

illio

ns)

7 Billion

9.5 Billion

11 Billion

Continental population projection

Source: Gerland et al. 2014Year

Tota

l pop

ulati

on (b

illio

ns)

Urbanisation

Projections

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Urban

Rural

Hu

ma

n p

op

ula

tio

n in

th

ou

sa

nd

s

GDP projections

Year

Gro

ss D

omes

tic P

rodu

ct (U

S$ B

n)

Drivers of change

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000

Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)

Pe

r c

ap

ita

me

at

co

ns

um

pio

n (

kg

/ye

ar)

USA

Japan

China

India

USA

JapanChina

India

Per capita GDP (US$ ppp)

Per c

apita

mea

t con

sum

ption

(kg/

year

) 2005

Source: FAO 2009

Livestock to 2030 – demand growth

REGION

Beef Milk Mutton Pork Poultry Eggs

Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop. Abs. Prop.

East Asia and Pacific

8,798 130% 23,765 132% 1,669 58% 28,075 63% 22,522 143% 10,188 45%

China 6,888 132% 15,936 143% 1,537 56% 22,050 54% 14,609 121% 6,810 34%

Eastern Europe and C. Asia

290 11% 4,364 15% 204 40% 112 5% 2,310 108% 684 28%

Latin America and Caribbean

7,302 58% 39,818 72% 239 54% 4,405 100% 14,434 126% 3,246 78%

Middle East and N. Africa

1,929 112% 17,913 111% 1,287 103% 9 52% 6,296 243% 1,799 148%

South Asia 3,367 84% 118,942 126% 1,722 115% 950 160% 11,491 725% 5,947 294%

India 1,338 51% 79,330 119% 588 85% 921 160% 8,865 844% 4,251 280%

Sub-Saharan Africa

3,768 113% 20,939 107% 1,883 137% 1,106 155% 3,235 170% 1,727 155%

Livestock to 2030 – demand growth

Meat consumption is increasing faster in developing countries than in developed countries

Mill

ions

of t

onne

s

Year

Developed

Developing

Disaggregating demand growthGrowth in poultry consumption in China to 2030

Demand growth attributable to population growth

Demand growth attributable to

changing consumption patterns

Demand growth as a function of both

Demand in 2000

Implications for production

• Rural population growth

→ EXPANSION

• Urban population growth• Increasing wealth• Changing consumption patterns

→ INTENSIFICATION

• Demographic and social drivers• Population: + 32% or 9.6 billion people by 2050• Income growth: + 2% per year by 2050• Urbanization: 70% will live in cities by 2050

➜ Growth in demand for animal source foods• + 70% by 2050• + 200 million tonnes of meat

➜ Structural changes in the livestock sector• Shift from ruminant to monogastric• Intensification of production

➜ Impinges on global public goods• Poverty and growth• Climate and natural resources• Health and nutrition

• Integrated approach to socially desirable livestock sector development

• Need reliable data and information to guide policy

The changing livestock sector

Livestock distribution and production

Livestock distribution modelling

Livestock maps by production system

Livestock productionestimates

Global livestockmaps

Production systemsmodelling

Sub-national Livestock data

Herd / production modelling

Data collection, cleaning and geo-registration

Source: Robinson et al (2014)

Livestock distributions

Pigs

Chickens

Ducks

• Updated sub-national statistics• 1km MODIS data (2001-2008)• Standardised to FAOSTAT 2006• New, improved modelling approach• Accuracy estimates (internal)• Cluster computing (SIB)

Cattle distribution (2006)

Source: Robinson et al. (2014)

Mapped based on rural population

Difference(total – extensive)

% backyard

% intensive

Monogastric production systems

Livestock distribution

Extensive production

Intensive production

Chicken systemsO

utpu

t / in

put r

atio

(log

kg-1 s

tock

-1 y

ear-1

)

Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year)From World Bank data

Chicken systems

Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year)From World Bank data

Prop

ortio

n of

ext

ensi

vely

rais

ed c

hick

ens

Chicken systems

Extensive chickenproduction

Intensive chickenproduction

Predicting future livestock systems

Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year)From World Bank data

Prop

ortio

n of

ext

ensi

vely

rais

ed c

hick

ens

2000log GDP per capita c. $ 2.9% extensive c. 83 %

2000

2030

2030log GDP per capita c. $ 3.8% extensive c. 18 %

Chicken production in China

HPAI H5N1 risk prediction

H5N1

Source: Gilbert et al. (2008)

Rift Valley Fever

Source: Bett al. (under development)

Source : Shaw et al. (2014)

Trypanosomosis

Photo credit: Sue Welburn

Economic benefits over 20 years of trypanosomosis removal

Antimicrobial resistance

Source: Van Boeckel et al. (under development)

Cattle Chickens Pigs

Log10 Population Correction Units (Kg of Meat) – OECD countries 2010

Log 10

mg

mic

robi

al

Posterior distributions for estimates of antimicrobial consumption

Antimicrobial resistance

Source: Van Boeckel et al. (under development)

Global antimicrobial use in food animals (mg per 10km pixel)

http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org

Looking forward

• Improvements to livestock maps• Better disaggregation into production

systems• Better understanding of the key drivers

and how they will shape the livestock sector of the future

• How will this evolving livestock sector affect livelihoods, equality, the environment and public health

• How can we translate the resulting evidence into actionable policies to guide sector development