TheFutureofEnergyInsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussionsBangkok|23July2017 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram

LookingForwardsOrganisa0onsincreasinglywanttoiden0fyandunderstand

boththean0cipatedandunexpectedchangessothattheycanbebeHerpreparedforthefuture.

FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram

thataccessesmul0pleviewsofthenextdecadesothatwecanallbebeHerinformedands0mulateinnova0on.

FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin25countries.FutureAgenda2.0doubledtheface-to-faceinterac0on

andsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.

FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS

FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS

TheWorldin2025Thisisasummaryofwhatweheardaboutthefutureenergyfrommul0plevoicesaroundtheworld–onhowitischanging,whatisdrivingthechange,wherewillbetheimpactsandhowtheymayevolveoverthenextdecade.

TheFutureofEnergyIndiscussionsoneachcon0nent,weiden0fieddriversofchangefortheworld

ofenergyacrossfourbroadthemes–macroshi]s,technologychanges,poten0aldisrup0onsandchangesinbusiness.Allhavemajorpoten0alimpact.

TechnologyChange

MacroShi]s

ChangesinBusiness

Poten0alDisrup0ons

ThisDocumentTheinsightsinthisdocumentaredesignedtobeusedasthecores0mulusforaworkshopthatexploresfuturepossibili0es,iden0fiestheareasofgreatestpoten0alchangeandthedetailsspecificimpactsandtheirimplica0ons.

MacroShiPsDrivingEnergyDemand

GrowingPopulaSonsBy2050wemayaddanother2bnpeopletotheplanet,mostinplacesleastabletoaccommodatethem.Whilesomeregionsfacedecliningbirthrates,mostmaintaincurrentlevelsandexperiencemajorpopula0ongrowth.

LivingLongerTheglobalpopula0onaddsanother2billionpeoplebutitisrapidlyageing:achildbornnextyearwilllive6monthslongerthanoneborntoday.Whilemigra0onhelpstorebalance,increasingdependencyra0oschallengemany.

WorkingLongerPeoplearehavingtoworkforlongertosupportlongerre0rements.

Flexibleworkingprac0cesandpoliciesareemerging,butsomeemployerscon0nuetoremainambivalentaboutolderworkers.

RisingYouthUnemploymentWithunemploymentratesover50%insomena0ons,accesstoworkisarisingbarrier.EspeciallyacrossNorthAfrica,theMiddleEastandsouthernEurope,alostgenera0onof100myoungpeoplefailstogainfromglobalgrowth.

EducaSonRevoluSonBroaderaccesstoimprovededuca0onactsasamajorcatalystfor

empowerment,sustainedeconomicgrowth,overcominginequalityandreducingconflict.Adigitaleduca0onsystemlevelstheglobalplayingfield.

IncreasingUrbanisaSonBy2050over70%ofpeoplewillliveinacity.Thegrowthofmega-ci0esiscrea0nganewwaveofurbanisa0on.Suchmassurbanisa0onincreasingly

requiresarethinkabouthowweplan,designanduseci0es.

AccesstoTransportThewidespreadneedforindividualstotravelshortdistancesbecomesakeyfeatureofurbandesignandregenera0on.Plannersusetransport

infrastructuretoinfluencesocialchangeandlowercarbonliving.

KeyResourceConstraintsEconomic,physicalandpoli0calshortagesofkeyresourcesincreaseanddriveincreasingtensionbetweenandwithincountries.AsweexceedtheEarth’snaturalthresholds,foodandwaterreceiveasmuchfocusasoilandgas.

TrueValueofWaterAswaterstressimpacts40%oftheworld,wehavetopaythetruevaluefor

thisresource.Inamorewater-consciousworld,thecostofwaterisrecognised,footprintsaremeasuredandcompaniesreduceconsump0on.

PlanetaryNexusesMoreeco-friendlyopportuni0es,andtrade-offs,onenergysupplyanduseemergefromconsideringthenexusesofcoreresourcessuchas

food,water,energyandlandwithagrowingpopula0on.

Water

Food

Land

Energy

IncreasingEnergyDemandAscountriesgroweconomicallysodoestheirenergyconsump0on.EnergydemandpercapitarisewithGDPun0lthepointwhereenoughisenough–butthatpoint

variessignificantlybyregionandlevelingoffearlyistheambi0onforall.

FossilFuelsDominanceWithgasgrowingfasterthanoil,fossilfuelsremainthedominantsourceofenergypoweringtheglobaleconomy,providingaround60%ofthegrowthinenergyands0llaccoun0ngforalmost80%oftotalenergysupplyin2035.

ShiPingPowerandInfluenceThecentreofgravityofeconomicpowercon0nuesshi]ingeastwards,backtowhereitwas2000yearsago.Recentsuperpowersseektomoderatethepace

ofchangebutthereali0esofpopula0onandresourceareimmoveable.

China’sExtendingInfluenceChinaisopeningupandwantsthenaturalprivilegesaleadingeconomy

mightexpect:Abigsayoverglobalrulesoffinanceandtradeareincreasinglylinkedtotakingtheleadonkeyissuessuchasclimatechange.

ChinaasAsia’sVoiceDespitegrowthofotherASEANna0ons,Chinaremainsthecleareconomicleaderintheregion–becomingmoreinfluen0alastheprimarysourceof

capitalandthevoiceofAsiaontheworldstage.

DecliningGovernmentInfluenceNa0onalgovernments’abilitytoleadchangecomesundergreaterpressurefrombothaboveandbelow-mul0na0onalorganisa0onsincreasinglysettheruleswhileci0zenstrustandsupportlocalandnetworkbasedac0ons.

DecliningEnergyIntensityAsmajorgrowthregionsinvestinlower-carbonsupplyop0onsandpriori0seenergyefficiency,weseeanassociateddeclineinenergyintensityintheeconomy–achievingreduc0onsofupto10%overthenextdecade.

EnergyEfficiency–TheInvisibleFuelThecheapestandcleanestformofenergyistheenergywedon’tuse.

Adop0onofeffec0veenergyefficiencymeasuresandcarefulmanagementofenergydemandwillplayakeyroleincrea0ngaclean,lowcostenergyfuture.

EnergySecurityFacedwithbothincreasingna0onalismandrisingtensionbetween

keyenergysuppliers,morehighenergyconsump0oncountriesseektoensure100%energysecurity-evenifitcomesataprice.

SupportforParisWithafewexcep0ons,globalsupportforimplemen0ngtheParisCOPAgreementdrivesfasterandgreatermi0ga0on.Thethreatsofpoten0al3Cand4Cofglobalwarmings0rac0vitytoachieveacredible2Ctarget.

AdaptaSontoClimateChangeWhilemi0ga0onofclimatechangeremainsattheforeforsomecountries,formoreadapta0ontotheimpactsof3Cand4Cofglobalwarmingstartto

takepriority.Resilienceplanningandregulatorychangeaccelerate.

InfrastructureDeficitInfrastructureagainbecomesasourceofcompe00veadvantage.Emerging

economiesinvestinnewrailroadsandhighwaysformoreeffec0vemovementofpeopleandgoods,whiledevelopedna0onssufferfrompoorlegacy.

MillennialMindsetsEstablishedbusinessesstruggletoadapttoanalterna0vesetofvalues

andaspira0ons.Adap0ngtoamoreflexible,transientworkforceforcesmanytoseektoreinventtheemployer/employeecontract.

TechnologyChangingtheIndustry

EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul0plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec0onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmoreeffec0velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityoftheinforma0onthatflows.

Industry4.0Smartfactoriesusecyber-physicalsystemsthatsharedataandcooperatewitheachotherwithexcep0onallevelsofproduc0vityandquality.By2030

manufacturersgofromideatoproductinafrac0onofthe0metoday.

TheRiseofMachinesThegrowthintheintelligenceandcapabili0esofmachinespresentsbothathreatandanopportunity:GreaterAIandautoma0onfreeup0me,butalso

threatenjobs-bothlowskilledandmanagerial/administra0veroles.

MachineLearningTakingControlWiththeriseofAIandautonomouscompu0ng,machinelearningis

increasinglyputincontrolofmanagingourenergysystems–quicklyrealizingefficiencysavingsofaround50%insomesectors.

FallingCostofSolarTheconsistentdeclineinthecostofsolarPVmodulesover0mefollows

a20%reduc0onforeverydoublingofproduc0on.At2cperkWh,solartakesofftobecometheworld’sleadingenergysourcewithtwodecades.

NuclearFusionBreakthroughThepromiseofintrinsicallysafe,cleanandlimitlessenergycomestrue.TheITERprogrammedeliversmaximumpoweraheadofits2035target,

spurringtheroll-outofNuclearFusionacrosspartnerna0ons.

EnergyStorageStorage,andpar0cularlyelectricitystorage,isthemissingpieceintherenewablesjigsaw.Ifsolved,itcanenabletrulydistributedsolar

energyaswellasacceleratetheelectrifica0onofthetransportindustry.

HighPerformanceBa]eriesMajorimprovementsinimprovementinenergydensityforlithium-ion

andlithium-airbaHeriesallopenthedoortolongerlas0ng,smallerbaHeries-andsoacceleratetheshi]torenewables.

SuccessfulCCSA]eryearsofresearch,fullscalecarboncaptureandstoragesystemsfinallyprovetheirworthatunsubsidizedindustrialscale:InvestmentinCCSasaninterimsolu0onforthetransi0ontorenewablesincreasessignificantly.

HVDCTransmissionAdvancesinhighvoltageDCtransmissioncreatethelower-cost/lower-losspowersuperhighway.Longdistancetransmissionchangessupplydynamicsandsupportsconcentratedsolarpowerandmassiveoff-shorewindfarms.

SpaceBasedSolarSomeaccelerateinvestmentinthekeytechnologiesthatwillenablethe

deploymentofspacebasedsolarenergysystems.Newfundingmechanisms,energysharingpartnershipsandregionalalliancescometothefore.

AutonomousVehiclesTheshi]tofullyautonomoustransportisanevolu0onviatruckplatoonsonhighwaysandsmallurbandeliverypods.Logis0csorganisa0onscreatethe

networkandtestthetechnologiesfortherevolu0onarydriverlessexperience.

SmartGridsPervasivesmartmeters,smartappliancesanddynamicpricingdrivea

reengineeringoftheelectricitysupplysector.Mul0plefullyinter-connectedenergysystemsreducewaste,increasereliabilityandimproveresilience.

RiseoftheMicro-ActorsWeseeablurringofenergyconsumersandproducers–to‘prosumers’whodoboth:Amovetomul0plemicro-actorsworkingindividuallyandcollec0vely

-supportedbynewtechnologicaldevelopments,includingstorage.

DataOwnershipIndividualsrecognizethevalueoftheirdigitalshadows,privacyagentscurateclients’datasetswhilepersonaldatastoresgiveustransparentcontrolofourinforma0on:Weretainmoreownershipofourdataandopttoshareit.

PotenSalDisrupSonstoConsider

Instability,ConflictandEventRiskThereisanendtotheequilibriumwithincreasingregionalvola0lityand

instability.Power,migrantsandtrademovetothosestatesbestabletobuildadap0vecapacity,func0onalredundancyandresistprotec0onistpressures.

FloodedCiSesThevastmajorityofourci0esarenotpreparedforflooding.Manydistrictsandhouseholdscannolongergetfloodinsuranceandareinjeopardy.Manyoftheworld’smajorpopula0oncentresfaceregularfloods.

MoreSelfInsuranceAsmoreweirdweatherbecomesthenorm,insurancecompanieswithdrawcoverfromvulnerableloca0ons.Communi0esrespondbyself-insuringfor

majorriskandreplicatetheapproachestakenbymanyoilmajors.

AirQualityAsmoreexperienceasthmaandotherbreathingdifficul0es,urbanairqualitybecomesavisibleissueandthemajorcatalystforchange

–intransportpolicy,inenergysupplyandincitydesign.

LastMileGridConnecSvityPrivate/publiccollabora0onsgiveanother100mpeopleinIndiaaccesstoelectricityviaconnec0ontothegrid-but250mpeoplecon0nuetousewood,dieselandkerosenetocookandlighttheirhomes.

UniversalBasicIncomeFollowingsuccessfultrails,theadop0onofuniversalbasicincomeisembracedbymanygrowingeconomies.Allci0zensreceivingaregularincomeenablesmanytoaccessthegrowthladderandisaprotec0onfromautoma0on.

InfluenceofKeyCiSesCi0esaremoreimportantthancountriesandincreasinglyinfluen0al.O]encentresforinnova0on,theirreachstretchesfarbeyondtheconfinesofna0onalboundariesastheyposi0onthemselvesascentresofexcellence.

SpliangoftheEUDrivenbythedecreasingglobalinfluenceoftheEuro,theEUsplitsintotwo.

ANorthernDeutschmarkzonepowersaheadleavingsouthernna0onsseekingindependentcollabora0onratherthanfallingbehind.

GrowingCyberTerrorismTheenergysystembecomesanincreasinglypopulartargetforhackersandcyberterrorists.Pervasiveconnec0vityandweaksecurityprovide

increasinglyopenbackdoorsforsustaineddenialofservice.

LeapfroggingtoLeadersSomeemergingeconomiesdomorethatcatchup.Aswithmobiletelecoms,theyadoptnewenergysystemsearly,leapfroggingtheWestwithsomerapidlybecomingleadersinlow-costservicestoagrowingmiddleclass.

GreaterFemaleInfluenceAsmorewomenleadcompaniesandgovernments,thenatureofenergysupplyandthesectoritselfmaychange.Weseenewpriori0es,more

effec0veapproachesanddifferentareasoffocusallcomingtothefore.

Asia

FutureRoleoftheUSAlthoughtheUSFederalGovernmentseekstodelayprogressontheswitchtorenewables,USstates,ci0esandcompaniescon0nueindependently.USenergyinnova0onseekstokeeppacewiththerestoftheworld.

G20EnergySubsidiesDecadesofG20subsidyforalterna0veenergysystemscometoanend.

Greatercompe00onisdrivenbymoretransparentpricing,globalinvestmentandsocio-poli0caladvocacy.

BanningofDieselLedbykeyci0essuchasParis,MexicoCityandAthens,themayorsoftheworldslargesturbandistrictsproac0velybandieselcarsfrom2025.Na0onalgovernmentsfollowsuitofferingsubsidiesforEValterna0ves.

TheEndofIPIntellectualpropertyisincreasinglyseenasabarriertocollabora0on,andrapidtechnologychange.MorecompaniesshareIPordon’tfile

patentsinordertoaccelerateshi]sinkeysectors.

Eco-CivilisaSonOverthepast40yearsChinahasgrownapace,mostlywithoutconcernfor

long-termenvironmentalimpacts.However,nowfacedwithmajorchallenges,sustainabledevelopmentisattheforeanddrivingglobalchange.

Off-GridPeoplelivingoff-grid,byinequalityorchoice,canexacerbatesocietaldivisionorimproveprivacy,healthandwellbeing.Eitherway,doingsoprovidesfer0legroundforinnova0on.

AcceleraSngDisplacementClimatechange,conflict,resourceshortages,inequalityandpoli0cal

elitesunabletochangealltriggerunprecedentedmigra0ontotheNorth.Overthenext50years,asmanyas1billionpeoplecouldbeonthemove.

TheChangingBusinessEnvironment

ShiPinTheInvestmentLandscapeAsrenewable/storagetechnologiesbecomecostcompe00veweseeasustainedshi]ininvestmentsen0menttowardscleanerenergysolu0ons.Developingcountries’investmentscon0nuetosurpassthoseoftheWest.

EnergyPriceVolaSlityMorevola0lityofenergypricesproducesgreatercost,increasedproject0meframes

andwiderskillsgaps.Thismakesa‘guessinggame’oflong-termeconomicsforenergyproviderswhich,inturn,makesitdifficultforuserstodevelopreliableplans.

ChangingEnergyRiskProfileTheimpactofnaturaldisasters,wideracceptanceoftheneedtoavoida

warmerworldandincreasedriskofcyber-crimetoourinfrastructureallleadtoadeeperunderstandingoftheriskprofileofdifferentenergysolu0ons.

HydroRevivalInresponsetorisingCO2andpollu0onaswellasassociatedhealth

concerns,Chinawillcon0nuetoinfluencethefundingandwillingnesstobuildlarge-scalehydrosolu0ons,especiallyinthedevelopingworld.

NuclearGrowthMoreseenuclearenergyasasignificantpieceofthecorefutureenergymix

–drivenbyslowerthanneededtransi0onawayfromfossilfuels.Butmanyareunpreparedwithregardtoskills,policyandpublicdebate.

DistributedEnergySupplyKeydevelopingeconomiesinvestheavilyinlower-carbon,distributed

energywithintegratedstoragetodelivermorereliableandaffordablepower.ThisissupportedbybeHermarketpricingandsmartersubsidies.

IncreasingValueofDataAsorganisa0onstrytoretainasmuchinforma0onabouttheircustomersaspossible,databecomesacurrencywithavalueandaprice.Ittherefore

requiresamarketplacewhereanythingthatisinforma0onisrepresented.

MulSnaSonalIndiansTheglobalinfluenceofIndiancompaniesgrowsasinnova0ve,low-cost,mass

scalesolu0onsgaintrac0on.FromastrongITbase,mul0na0onalIndiancompanieshaveimpactacrosshealthcare,energy,transportandmedia.

BigBusinessDefinestheFutureLargemul0na0onalenergyconsumersdefinethefutureenergymix.100%renewableenergybecomesthenormforkeysectorsandspursdevelopmentaheadofgovernmentandenergysuppliers’expecta0ons

CircularEconomyGrowthThereiswidespreadapplica0onofprocessesfocusedonkeepingresourcesinuseforaslongaspossible-extrac0ngthemaximumvaluefromthemwhileinuse,thenrecoveringandreusingmaterialsattheendofeachservicelife.

FullCostIncreasingtransparencyofsociety’srelianceonnature,intensify

requirementsforbusinesstopaythetruecostoftheresourcesprovidedby‘naturalcapital’andsocompensatefortheirnega0veimpactonsociety.

CompanieswithPurposeAstrustin‘business’declines,structuresandprac0cesoflargecorpora0onsareunderscru0ny.Businessescomeundergreaterpressuretoimprove

socialandenvironmentalperformance-achievingbothpurposeandprofit.

HumanTouchAsserviceprovisionandconsump0onbecomesevermoredigital,

automatedandalgorithmic,thosebrandsthatcanoffermoreemo0onalengagementandhuman-to-humancontactbecomeincreasinglyaHrac0ve.

OrganisaSon3.0NewformsofflaHer,project-based,collabora0ve,virtual,informal

organisa0onsdominate-enabledbytechnologyandamobileworkforce.Assuchthenatureofworkandtheroleoftheorganisa0onblurs.

TheTalentChallengeAstheglobalworkforcebecomesmoremobile,organisa0ons

struggletoaHractandretaintoptalent.Governmentsseektoprovideci0zenswiththerelevanteduca0onthatwillalloweconomiestothrive.

DigitalMoneyCashcon0nuestobegraduallyreplacedbydigitalmoney,providing

consumerswithmoreconvenienceandchoice–andorganisa0onswithlowercosttransac0ons.Wideradop0onenablesnewofferstoproliferate.

DynamicPricingThealgorithmsofAmazonandUbercrossovertoaffectmorebusinesses,

fromenergyusetoparking.Real-0metransparencyallowsbeHerpurchasingatthesame0measmarginsandyieldsareautoma0callyenhanced.

StandardsDrivingTradeMostinterna0onalregula0onisprogressivelyaimedatfreeinguptradeand

makingitsimplerandlessbureaucra0c–butthereareanumberofagreementsandstandardsthatsomeareseeingasincreasinglyconstraining.

OpSmisingLastMileDeliverySeamless,integratedandsharedlast-miledeliveryreplacesinefficientcompe00onandduplica0onofgoodsdistribu0on.Greaterefficiencyin

movingthingsisasimportantasmovingpeopleandafocusforinnova0on.

AcceleraSngEVShareofMarketLeadingOEMsseethat,by2030,around3in10newvehiclesbeingsoldgloballyareEVs.Thisviewhaschangedfrom1in10twelvemonthsago.ThemostprobableleadmarketsareseentobeUS,ChinaandEurope.

AccessNotOwnershipThegrowthofleasing,carsharing,poolingandon-demandtravelisdrivenbyinnova0vebusinessmodels,disrup0vestart-upsandmoreflexiblemobilitysolu0ons.Vehicleownershipdeclinessignificantly,especiallyinurbanareas.

PeakCar(inUSandEU)ThedistancetravelledbycarandthenumberofvehiclesontheroadsintheEUandtheUShaspasseditsmaximum.Althoughthetotalnumberofvehiclesintheworlddoublesfrom2010to2030,thegrowthisallinotherregions.

SecondGeneraSonBiofuelsWiththefoodvs.fuelchallengeof1stgenbiofuelsevident,theshi]to2ndgenaccelerates.The10%transportmixmandatespreadsgloballyascellulosicbioethanolandadvancedbiodieselsbecomecompe00vearound2020.

SpeedtoScaleGreaterglobalconnec0vity,growingconsumerwealthandbroaderreachallcombinetoacceleratethe0meto1bncustomersanda$10bnvalua0onforstart-upsandnewcorporateventuresalike.

TheRealSharingEconomyIncreasingcollabora0ondrivesorganisa0onstoreconfigurebasedonsocialnetworksandimpact.Realsharingenterprises,notdrivenbyprofits,seek

toshareresources,knowledge,anddecision-makingresponsibili0es.

DeeperCollaboraSonPartnershipsshi]tobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra0sed,

mul0-partycollabora0ons.Compe0toralliancesandpublicpar0cipa0ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe0ccollabora0on.

USINGTHISMATERIALTheseareinformedviewsfromaroundtheworld.Somewillhavegreaterpoten0alimpactthanothers.Thechallengeistoworkouthow,whereand

withwhatimplica0onstoyourstrategyandunderlyingassump0ons

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