the future of cellular-iot - meetup presentation
TRANSCRIPT
THE FUTURE OF CELLULAR IOT
LTE TECHNOLOGIES FOR IOT WILL UNLOCK NEW BUSINESS VALUE
NEW VALUE PROPOSITIONS NEW USE CASES
Lower hardware costs
Longer battery life
Greater RF penetration
Distributed sensor networks (agriculture)
Mobile asset tracking (bikes, pets, kids)
Emergency water valve shutoff (basements)
OVERVIEW
SITUATION
COMPLICATION
QUESTION
ANSWER
New innovative cellular technologies like LTE for IoT and eSIM are becoming available and will unlock new product applications and huge amounts of business value within IoT alone.
The cellular ecosystem is incredibly fragmented, and building vertically integrated products and customer solutions with a guaranteed 5-10 year lifespan is incredibly challenging.
How can product creators build solutions that bring the value of these technological breakthroughs to their customers without exposing themselves to excessive development risk?
1. Discount the hype. New technologies often carry bold claims supported by unrealistic assumptions and use cases. Go hands-on with new tech to understand the value it can provide your customers.
2. Leverage future-compatible platforms and ecosystems. Work with proven technology integrators who can provide a hardware and software-compatible path to future technologies.
3. Don’t wait for the technology of tomorrow. Build your product with technology that works for your customers today.
HELLO! MY NAME IS WILL.
About Me
My name is Will Hart, and I am the General Manager of Developer Tools at Particle, which means I’m responsible for our hardware development kits, open-source firmware stack, IDEs, manufacturing, and fulfillment. I have a background in mechanical engineering with experience in electronics manufacturing, supply chain, and engineering management.
Email - LinkedIn
About Particle
Particle (https://www.particle.io) is a scalable, reliable and secure Internet of Things device platform that enables businesses to quickly and easily build, connect, and manage their connected solutions. The company’s solutions are the most widely-used IoT platform with a developer community of 100,000 users in more than 170 countries with many in the Fortune 500.
1475 Folsom St, Ste 200, San Francisco, CA 94103 415-316-1024 (office)
GM OF DEVELOPER TOOLS
CELLULAR IOT TODAY
A FRAGMENTED ECOSYSTEM
NAVIGATING THE FUTURE
THE FUTURE OF CELLULAR
CELLULAR IOT TODAY
A FRAGMENTED ECOSYSTEM
NAVIGATING THE FUTURE
THE FUTURE OF CELLULAR
CELLULAR IOT TODAY
2G VS 3G
CELLULAR BANDS
THE CELLULAR “STACK”
NETWORK PROVIDERS
THE CELLULAR “STACK” IS DEEP AND COMPLICATED
PLAYER IMPACT ON PRODUCT
CHIPSET Hardware support for 2G, 3G, LTE
MODULE Supported frequencies, price, size
MVNO Carrier support, cost of data
CARRIERS Coverage (not reception)
NETWORK SOFTWARE Network support for for 2G, 3G, LTE
THE INTERNET IoT can exist
IN IOT, COST AND COVERAGE DIFFERENTIATE 2G/3G
HW Cost Power Consumption (Tx) Bandwidth* Network Status
2G $8-$12 Short bursts of power (2A peaks)
50 kbps (GPRS theoretical
max)
Many operators plan to sunset between
2017 and 2020
3G $15-$20 Continuous power draw (~700mA)
1.0 - 15 Mpbs (varies by WCDMA,
HSPA, HSPA+)
No announced sunset timelines
• Cellular chipsets provide support at the HW level • Carriers provide support at the infrastructure level
* for most IoT applications, both are plenty
YOUR HW AND NETWORK MUST SUPPORT THE SAME FREQUENCIES
AT&T 850/1900 MHZ
VODAPHONE 900/2100 MHZ
CHINA MOBILE 900/1800 MHZ
AIRTEL 900/2100 MHZ
T-MOBILE 1900/2100 MHZ
REGIONAL SKUS
GLOBAL SKU
SARA-U260 850/1900 MHZ
SARA-U270 900/1800/2100 MHZ
SARA-U201 850/900/1800/ 1900/2100 MHZ
HARDWARE SUPPORT CARRIER SUPPORT
ROAMING AGREEMENTS (2G/3G)
CARRIERS LEVERAGE ROAMING AGREEMENTS TO PROVIDE WORLDWIDE COVERAGE
YOU
CARRIER
T-MOBILE BIRTHI TELSTRA CHINA MOBILE
ROAMING AGREEMENTS
AT&T 100+ MORE COUNTRIES
DIRECT CARRIER AGREEMENT
CELLULAR IOT TODAY
A FRAGMENTED ECOSYSTEM
NAVIGATING THE FUTURE
THE FUTURE OF CELLULAR
LTE (WHICH APPARENTLY STANDS FOR “LONG TERM EVOLUTION”)
LTE OFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED COVERAGE
COVERAGE (T-Mobile)
LTE COVERAGE 2G COVERAGE
LTE CAN ENSURE LONG TERM (5-10 YR) NETWORK SUPPORT
LONG TERM SUPPORT
2G SUNSET 3G SUNSET
AT&T
VERIZON
T-MOBILE
complete
2020 or later unknown
unknown
by end of 2019 unknown
Sources: • AT&T: http://about.att.com/innovationblog/2g_sunset • Verizon: http://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/verizon-to-shut-down-2g-cdma-1x-network-by-end-2019 • T-Mobile: https://newsroom.t-mobile.com/news-and-blogs/att-2g-iot-lifeline.htm
LTE M1 AND NB1 TARGET LOW BANDWIDTH IOT APPLICATIONS
LTE CAT 6
LTE CAT 4
LTE CAT 1
LTE CAT M1
LTE CAT NB1
COST POWER CONSUMPTION
TARGET APPLICATIONS
VERY HIGH BANDWIDTH
SMARTPHONES
POINT OF SALE
SENSORS AND ACTUATORS
LOW POWER SENSORS
BANDWIDTH (DL)
300 MBPS
150 MBPS
10 MBPS
375 KBPS
27 KBPS
LTE FOR IOT
LTE M1 AND NB1 WILL BOTH BRING VALUE TO IOT
Cost Bandwidth Mobility Power Latency Use Case
LTE M1$8-$15
(forecasted estimate)
375kbpsSupports cellular handoff between
towers
Higher Tx current, —————
Short sleep penalty
10 to 15msLow bandwidth
devices in frequent communication
LTE NB1 (NB-IoT)
$6-$12 (forecasted estimate)
27kbpsDoes not support cellular handoff between towers
Lower Tx current, —————
Long sleep penalty (30s)
1.4 to 10sStationary sensors
transmitting several times per day
ESIM (WHICH STANDS FOR “EMBEDDED SIM”)
ESIM ENABLES LOW-FRICTION PROVISIONING ONTO CELLULAR NETWORKS
NANO SIM (4FF) ESIM (MFF2)
ESIM PROFILE DISCOVERY SERVER
ESIM WILL SIMPLY LIFE FOR MANUFACTURERS
IoT-enabled product manufacturers would have the ability to build devices with “blank” SIMs that could be activated in the destination country. This functionality would make for easy equipment connectivity and allow manufacturers to offer new products in new market segments.
“
”“E-SIM FOR CONSUMERS” MCKINSEY AND COMPANY
ESIM WILL ENABLE NEW CONSUMER BUSINESS MODELS
By adopting e-SIM technology, mobile network operators…would also have the ability to provide convergent offers with multiple devices (for instance, the smart car and smart watch) under a single contract with the consumer more conveniently than they would using physical SIM cards.
“
” “E-SIM FOR CONSUMERS” MCKINSEY AND COMPANY
CELLULAR IOT TODAY
A FRAGMENTED ECOSYSTEM
NAVIGATING THE FUTURE
THE FUTURE OF CELLULAR
LTE COMPLICATIONS (41 BANDS)
LTE COMPLICATIONS
ANTICIPATED INITIAL LTE ROLLOUT
LTE NB1
USA VERIZON, AT&T
CANADA TELUS CHINA
MOST OF THE EU VODAFONE
AUSTRALIA TELSTRA (M1) AND OPTUS (NB1)
MEXICO AT&T
M1 requires software update to existing cellular towers
NB1 requires software update and new radio hardware
M1 AND NB1LTE M1
JAPAN NTT DOCOMO
CHINA
ROAMING AGREEMENTS (2G/3G)
ROAMING AGREEMENTS WILL BREAK DOWN WITH LTE FOR IOT
YOU
CARRIER
T-MOBILE BIRTHI TELSTRA CHINA MOBILE
ROAMING AGREEMENTS
AT&T 100+ MORE COUNTRIES
DIRECT CARRIER AGREEMENT
ROAMING AGREEMENTS (2G/3G)
ROAMING AGREEMENTS WILL BREAK DOWN WITH LTE FOR IOT
YOU
CARRIER
T-MOBILE BIRTHI TELSTRA CHINA MOBILE
ROAMING AGREEMENTS
AT&T 100+ MORE COUNTRIES
DIRECT CARRIER AGREEMENT
T-MOBILEAT&T BIRTHI TELSTRA
ROAMING AGREEMENTS WILL BREAK DOWN WITH LTE FOR IOT
CARRIEREach relationship might take 6-12 months to
negotiate and will be governed under separate contracts with separate pricing, data volumes, device
minimums, and terms of service.
ESIM SUPPORT AND TIMELINE WILL VARY BY CARRIER
The ease of use and ease of operator switching has the potential to weaken the network operator’s position in the mobile value chain, as customers may demand more freedom from contractual lock-ins, as well as more dynamic contractual propositions.
“
”“E-SIM FOR CONSUMERS” MCKINSEY AND COMPANY
CELLULAR IOT TODAY
A FRAGMENTED ECOSYSTEM
NAVIGATING THE FUTURE
THE FUTURE OF CELLULAR
HOW CAN PRODUCT CREATORS BUILD SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE VALUE OF THESE TECHNOLOGICAL
BREAKTHROUGHS TO THEIR CUSTOMERS WITHOUT EXPOSING THEMSELVES TO EXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT RISK?
1. DISCOUNT THE HYPE
1. DISCOUNT THE HYPE (ALL DATA IS ILLUSTRATIVE)
IDEAL ENVIRONMENT REAL LIFE USE CASE
10+ years battery life 12-18 months battery life
vs
1 message per 24 hours 5-10 readings per hour
10,000 mAh Li-metal battery
+
+
2,000mAh Li-Po battery
5% in 24h then 1-2% per month2% annual discharge rate
+
+
2. LEVERAGE FUTURE COMPATIBLE PLATFORMS AND ECOSYSTEMS
HARDWARE TIPS
MODULES WITH 2G/3G FALLBACK
INTEGRATED M1/NB1 HARDWARE
FOOTPRINT AND PIN COMPATIBLE ROADMAPS
“The MDM9206 modem is designed to support LTE category M1 (eMTC),
upgradeable to dual category M1/NB-1 mode with an anticipated upcoming
software update. “
2. LEVERAGE FUTURE COMPATIBLE PLATFORMS AND ECOSYSTEMS
LEVERAGE ESIM TO ENABLE FUTURE CARRIER MOBILITY
ESIM (MFF2)
LEVERAGE INTEGRATED HARDWARE + DATA PLATFORMS
CARRIER TIPS
BROAD LTE ADOPTION
3. DON’T WAIT FOR THE TECHNOLOGY OF TOMORROW
Start building with technology that solves your customers’ problems today
2017 2018 2019
2G
3G
LTE
2G SUNSET (GRADUAL)
2G LEGACY
CONTINUE MANUFACTURING 2G SOLUTION TO REMAIN
COST COMPETITIVE IN SELECT MARKETS
3G REMOTE MARKETS
ESTABLISH PRODUCT ADOPTION IN SECONDARY
MARKETS WHERE IOT IS POORLY ESTABLISHED
LTE WITH FALLBACK
LTE DEPLOYMENTS IN EARLY-ADOPTER MARKETS WITH 3G
FALLBACK AS COVERAGE IMPROVES
LTE GLOBAL SKU
ONCE LTE COVERS ALL PRIMARY MARKETS, COST-REDUCE WITH SINGLE LTE
GLOBAL SKU
THE FUTURE OF CELLULAR IOT