the future is messy

D A N M C C L U R E & S A G A R PA U L

THE FUTURE IS MESSY

THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION(THE MESSY REVOLUTION)

2

“In its scale, scope and complexity the transformation will

be unlike any humankind has experienced before …

disrupting almost every industry in every country.

The breadth and depth of these changes herald the

transformation of entire systems of production,

management, and governance.”

How Do We Go To This

Next Level?

End of Dentistry

5

Impossible

Problems

Demand Messy

Solutions

Aravind Eye Hospital

ARAVIND EYE CARE – THE CHALLENGE

6

Worldwide – 45 million blind

India - 12million

4 million more each year

80% of this preventable

Lack of doctors

400 surgeries / year

Intraocular lenses @ $150

Doctor

Patient

ARAVIND EYE CARE – THE CHALLENGE

7

5X productivity

97% cost reduction

Lowest infection rate worldwide

Scale to 400,000+ surgeries

Doctor

Patient

New Actors

(Nurses)

New Tech

(Local Lenses)

Clinic

New Systems

(Franchise Model)

Clinic

Clinic

A Short History of What

We’re Good At

REDUCTIONISTS -

ENGINEERING CHANGE

BUILDING BIG THINGS WITH REDUCTIONIST

ENGINEERING

10

DECOMPOSITION

ANALYSIS

COMMAND/CONTROL

ENGINEERING BIG WELL

UNDERSTOOD PROJECTS

12

13

DISCOVER INCREMENTAL

IMPROVEMENTS

W. Edward Deming

INCREMENTAL INNOVATION

Product or

Service

Product

Service

Feature

User

Value

Provider

Payment

Research and

Testing

SIMPLIFIED WORLD OF PRODUCT DISCOVERY

15

LEAN STARTUP

(USER DIRECTED

LEARNING)

X

Cross Functional

Team

Fail Fast

Double

Down

Pivot

TWO THINGS WE’RE GOOD AT

17

OPPORTUNITY IN THE MESSY

MIDDLE

18

But We’re Not

Very Good At Messy

(… yet)

20

New Actors

New Connections

New Tech

New Systems

FragileOngoing Crisis

System ChangeNew Possibilities

Evolve Over Time

Sustainable SystemResilient / Independent

AT THE HEART OF MESSY

COMPLEXITY

COMPLEXITY IS HARD Diverse Domains

Coupled Choices

Conflicting Needs

Large Scale

Unknown

Uncertain

Changing

21

Product

Quality

Maintenance

Effort

Program

Revenues

User

Satisfaction

Program

Costs

Investment

Funding

Product

Availability

Speed of

Scaling

User Base

New

Features

--

+

+

+

+

++

+

+ -

+

RIVIGO

RIVIGO

Road Infrastructure Strained

Freight Costs high – 13% GDP (10% US

and 8% Germany)

Productivity low – 15 km/hour

25 Nights Away

1mn Driver Shortfall

23

25

DAYS

RIVIGO

Productivity - 50km/hr

50% reduction in TAT

Time at Home

24

Driver Relay model

Tech

Insight

Starts from home

Goes home often

THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION(THE MESSY REVOLUTION)

25

“In its scale, scope and complexity the transformation will

be unlike any humankind has experienced before …

disrupting almost every industry in every country.

The breadth and depth of these changes herald the

transformation of entire systems of production,

management, and governance.”

USERS NOW LIVE IN A FOURTH INDUSTRIAL

WORLD

26

User

IOT LET’S YOU ENGAGE THEM WITHIN THEIR

LIFE

27

User

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

User

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

… BUT MOST OF THE IOT IS NOT YOURS

28

YOU CAN BEGIN TO CONNECT A COMPLEX

SYSTEM

29

User

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

BUT… BIG DATA AND THE CLOUD

EXPANDS THE SYSTEM

30

User

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

Big Data

+ Cloud

User

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

Big Data

+ Cloud AI

AI

AI CREATES AUTONOMOUS ACTORS

31

User

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOTIOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

IOT

Big Data

+ Cloud AI

AI Robot

ROBOTS GIVE THEM THE POWER TO

PARTICIPATE

32

Mandatory Messiness

New Actors

New Connections

New Technology

34

DISCOVERY MESSY SYSTEMS

Product or

Service

Product or

Service User

Value

Provider

Payment

Research and

Testing

ENGINEERING



Evolve Over Time


How Do We Embrace

Messiness ?

PLAN TO LEARN AND ADJUST

36

COMPLEXITY EVOLVES (AND GROWS)

37



Evolve Over Time


DESIGN ORGANIZATIONS

FOR MESSINESS

EMPOWER TEAMS TO PURSUE OUTCOMES

39

Silos

Tasks

Collaboration

Goals

Efficient Staffing Empowered Teams

DESIGN ORGANIZATIONS

FOR MESSINESS

Flexible

Collaborative

Outcome Focused

GET A CHOREOGRAPHER

THE FROZEN MIDDLE

42

M A N A G E R

E N G I N E E R

Organization

and Priority

Engineering

and Expertise

FOCUSON

OUTPUTS

CONNECTING GOALS WITH ACTION

44

M A N A G E R

E N G I N E E R

Big Picture Vision

Complex Pivots

M A N A G E R

E N G I N E E R

C H O R E O G R A P H E R

Organization

and Priority

Engineering

and Expertise

FOCUSON

OUTCOMES

LISTEN FOR STORIES OF ROGUE CREATION

Crossing

Silos

Rescuing

Initiatives

Leading

Without

Mandates

LEVERAGE

CREATIVE PLATFORMS

DIVERSE DOMAINS FORCE BUSINESS AND TECH

TOGETHER

Dan McClure

2016

Go-Jek

GO-JEK

50

M A N A G E R

E N G I N E E R

MESSY BUSINESS ALIGNS WITH TECH

Technology Platform

Mirrors the Business

Platform

Evolutionary

Architecture Built for

Change

Business Platform is Built

on 300,000 Drivers

Technology Plat form

Mirrors Business Plat form

GO-JEK

51

M A N A G E R

E N G I N E E R

EVOLVING OPPORTUNITIES

Release one product every other

month

Work with one fourth the tech team

Messy is not impossible

Go-Jek

Value of

Platforms

Don’t Over

Simplify the

Opportunity

Claim the

Messy

Possibilities

Extra Slides

THE MESSY MIDDLE IS DIFFERENT

57

SIMPLIFIED WORLD OF PRODUCT / FEATURE

DISCOVERY

58

Product or

Service

Product

Service

Feature

User

Value

Provider

Payment

Research and

Testing

IT’S NOT ABOUT THE FLYING CAR

IOT(internet of

things)

Ubiquitous

Big Data

AI (Artificial

Intelligence)

Robotics

IT’S ABOUT MASTERING MESSINESS