the facebook face-off - an empirical analysis by human

Who we are

What we plan to discuss today

Provide an empirical backbone to support the rest of the day

Understand who uses Facebook, and how this has changed over time

Consider how Facebook differs from rival “networking” services

Assess whether empirical evidence supports many of the frequently asserted hypotheses

Young under

graduates Female

Most popular

‘Stealing’ share from other sites

Affluent Losing its novelty

Our data comes from Nielsen//Netratings

Nielsen//Netrating’s ‘Netview’ service

Panel based data

Approximately 40,000 panelists

Directional not absolute

UK only

Facebook’s reach has grown by over 1800% over the last year

Monthly unique audience [000s]

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Sep 06

Oct 06

Nov 06

Dec 06

Jan 07

Feb 07

Mar 07

Apr 07

May 07

Jun 07

Jul 07

Aug 07

Sep 07

Facebook ‘reach’ is now 23% of the active UK internet population

Between February and August, reach grew by over 20% each month –

in September this slowed to 15%

• Over the same time, overall internet ‘reach’ has only grown by 11%

Based on number of unique users, it is the 13th most popular site in the UK

SiteUnique users

(Sep 07)Active reach

27.9m 84%

22.3m 67%

16.4m 50%

16.4m 50%

14.7m 44%

10.3m 31%

10.0m 30%

9.4m 28%

9.4m 28%

8.8m 26%

8.7m 26%

8.6m 26%

7.5m 23%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007

• However, Facebook is still not ‘mainstream’ - 77% of the active UK internet population did not visit the site in September

However, based on web pages viewed, it is the 3rd most popular site

SiteTotal page

views (millions)Page views/

person

3,956 142

3,500 240

3,243 434

2,281 122

2,071 130

1,619 262

1,521 347

1,386 85

723 77

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

• Facebook has the 11th highest average page views per user – the highest excluding gaming, gambling and adult sites

• This clearly has significant implications for a predominantly display advertising funded site


Hypothesis 1:Facebook is used predominantly by

young undergraduates

The majority of usage growth has been for 25 to 34 year olds

% of pages viewed by age group

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Aug06

Sep06

Oct06

Nov06

Dec06

Jan07

Feb07

Mar07

Apr07

May07

Jun07

Jul07

Aug07

Sep07

65+50-64

35-49

25-34

18-24

2-17

• In August 2006, 18-24 year olds were responsible for over 80% of page views

• In August 2007, they were responsible for 24%

• In August 2006, under 1% of all page views

were by 25-34 year olds

• In August 2007, they were responsible for

52%

Source: Nielsen//Netratings

The average age of a Facebook user (weighted by reach) is now almost 34

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07

Average audience age (by reach)

Weighted by reach

Weighted by usage


However, Facebook’s audience is still younger than all other top 20 UK sites (ranked by reach), bar Myspace and YouTube

Google

Microsoft

Yahoo!

BBC

eBay

Amazon

Apple

Wikipedia

YouTube

Real NetworkAOL Media Network

Ask Search Network

Myspace.com

Lycos Europe

PayPal

Virgin Media

Multimap.com

Tesco

BSkyB

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46

Average age (ranked by usage)

Average age (ranked by reach)

Used disproportionately more by younger audiences

• NB: Bubble size represents unique audience size (Sept 2007)


Hypothesis 2:Facebook use is

drivenby females

Facebook has a disproportionately high female skew, although there are significant gender skews amongst most networking sites

GoogleMicrosoftYahoo!BBCeBayAmazonAppleWikipediaYouTubeReal NetworkAOL Media NetworkAsk Search NetworkFacebookMyspace.comLycos EuropePayPalVirgin MediaMultimap.comTesco BSkyBbeboFriends ReunitedFacePartyHi5Linkedin

6% more female 22% more female

Composition Index by reach

Composition Index by usage

Male Female Male Female

Site


And young females in particular demonstrate heavy usage

Female 65+

Female 50 - 64

Female 35 - 49

Female 25 - 34

Female 18 - 24

Female 12 - 17 Male 65+

Male 50 - 64

Male 35 - 49

Male 25 - 34

Male 18 - 24

Male 12 - 17

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Average Page Views Per Month

Number of unique users (millions)

Young females use the site disproportionately more than their male

counterparts


Hypothesis 3:Facebook is

the most popular networking site

Based on ‘reach’, Facebook is now clearly the most popular ‘networking’ site

Monthly unique users [000s]

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Nov06

Dec06

Jan07

Feb07

Mar07

Apr07

May07

Jun07

Jul07

Aug07

Sep07

• Facebook became the most popular networking site by ‘reach’ in August 2007


However, based on usage - page views and total time spent - Facebook became the most popular ‘networking’ site much earlier

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Total number of page views (millions)

Nov06

Jan07

Mar07

May07

Jul07

Sep07

Nov06

Jan07

Mar07

May07

Jul07

Sep07

Total number of minutes online (millions)

Facebook became the most popular networking site by total usage in June 2007

• In September 2007, Facebook had more page views and number of minutes spent online than Myspace and Bebo combined

Page Views

Time Spent


Facebook is the most popular ‘networking’ site for all groups, except the very young, and middle aged men, where Myspace is still incumbent

674917F 65+

349438199F 50-64

804971549F 35-49

7331275325F 25-34

7571000400F 18-24

469163717F 2-17

10613176M 65+

504662330M 50-64

867800474M 35-49

616998210M 25-34

726879520M 18-24

509199733M 2-17

MyspaceFacebook Bebo

Reach(unique audience in Sept 2007, 000s)

5 13 2F 65+

19 55 44F 50-64

139 275 224F 35-49

135 979 106F 25-34

220 570 191F 18-24

132 16 311F 2-17

6 51 20M 65+

33 155 73M 50-64

493 349 152M 35-49

187 433 58M 25-34

179 339 180M 18-24

101 34 210 M 2-17

MyspaceFacebook Bebo

Usage(page views per month in Sept 2007, ms)


Hypothesis 4:Facebook is ‘stealing’

share from other social networking

sites

Users of other ‘networking’ sites are more likely to visit Facebook than the wider internet audience

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Monthly audience who also visited Facebook (%)

Total active internet

In September 2007, 23% of the active UK internet

audience visited Facebook, compared to 64% of the

active LinkedIn audience


The proportion of Facebook users who visit other ‘networking’ sites has broadly fallen over time, and Myspace has arguably been worst hit

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Facebook audience

who visited other

networking sites (%)

• This suggests that new users are going straight to Facebook and not to ‘networking’ sites in general.

• This fall in overlap could also include some substitution from Myspace to Facebook


Whilst the majority of growth has been additive rather than substitutional, in recent months there has been a relative fall in the proportion of time spent on Myspace and bebo

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Nov06

Dec06

Jan07

Feb07

Mar07

Apr07

May07

Jun07

Jul07

Aug07

Sep07

% of time online by all users • 6.6% of all time

spent online is spent on the 6 social networking sites

• The proportion of total time Myspace spent has fallen from 2.1% in April to 1.6% in September

• The hypothesis may be trueSource: Nielsen//Netratings

• Time spent on Bebo has also fallen

Hypothesis 5:Facebook is one of the most upmarket social networking

sites

Facebook has a higher proportion of more affluent households than Myspace, bebo, Hi5 and Faceparty, but not notably moreso than for the top 20 sites

0.25

0.35

0.45

0.55

0.65

0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85

Proportion of users with household income > £30k

Proportion of users aged > 35

Google

MicrosoftYahoo!

BBC

eBay

Amazon

Apple

Wikipedia

YouTube

Real Network

AOL Media Network

Ask Search Network

Myspace.com

Lycos Europe

PayPalVirgin Media

Multimap.com

Tesco

BSkyB

bebo

Friends Reunited

FaceParty

Hi5

Linkedin

• LinkedIn has, unsurprisingly, a much older and more affluent audience


This has risen marginally over time, higher than the rate of inflation, and considerably more than Myspace

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

Jan07

Feb07

Mar07

Apr07

May07

Jun07

Jul07

Aug07

Sep07

Average household income (£)

• Facebook’s audience has been consistently more ‘affluent’ than Myspace

• This is perhaps not surprising – over time, Facebook use has grown considerably ‘older’ over time from a comparatively small student-centric core


Hypothesis 6:Early adopters are ‘getting bored’ of

Facebook

The 18-24 age group represent the ‘early adopters’ of Facebook – page views per user from this group have fallen by 43% since March 2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Dec06

Jan07

Feb07

Mar07

Apr07

May07

Jun07

Jul07

Aug07

Sep07

Monthly page views per 18-24 year old user

• Facebook page views per month of the 18-24 year old audience have fallen from almost 850 to 487

• Myspace page views per person have fallen by 33% between March and August


• Although this may partly be explained by seasonality

However, the next adopters – the 25 to 34 year olds – are continuing to use Facebook more and more

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Dec06

Jan07

Feb07

Mar07

Apr07

May07

Jun07

Jul07

Aug07

Sep07

Monthly page views per 25-34 year old user

• Page views per 25-34 year old user grew to over 700 in Aug 07

• Page views per 25-34 year old Myspace user, however fell by 46% from March to August


This suggests there is a ‘life cycle’ in Facebook use

• Usage by age group grows to an extremely high level (700-800+ page views per person per month)

• The experience of 18-24 year old users, however, suggest that over time, this will fall significantly – by as much as 50%

• The initial novelty wears off

• There are fewer new friends to add (or poke!)

• Use becomes increasingly functional

• It is likely that usage patterns for 25-34 year olds will follow a similar trend as their Facebook usage matures

• Myspace, however, is clearly very different

Some final thoughts

Some final thoughts

Reach and use of Facebook has grown extraordinarily over the last year

Facebook is now the UK’s 3rd most popular site based on page views – more than Yahoo, Microsoft and Amazon

It is clearly the most popular networking sites in all cases, except the very young (where Bebo rules) and middle-aged

men (who still prefer Myspace)

Usage of Facebook is heavily skewed towards younger females

The data suggests that there may well be a ‘life cycle’ of Facebook use

About us

Human Capital are a strategic consultancy and research company

We work primarily for media, technology and telecommunications clients

Recent clients include the BBC, IPC Media, The Open University, Johnston Press, UK TV, Ofcom, News

International and lastminute.com

• For more information, please contact:• [email protected]• [email protected]• Or through www.humancapital.co.uk

the facebook face-off - an empirical analysis by human

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