the effects of weather on football matches played within the german bundesliga

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Dissertation project on my investigation into if weather effects the outcome of football matches for 21 years of games played within the German Bundesliga 1 & 2

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  • Declaration Cover Sheet for Project Submission SECTION 1 Student to complete

    Name:

    Student ID:

    Supervisor:

    SECTION 2 Confirmation of Authorship The acceptance of your work is subject to your signature on the following declaration: I confirm that I have read the College statement on plagiarism (summarised overleaf and printed in full in the Student Handbook) and that the work I have submitted for assessment is entirely my own work. Signature:_______________________________________________ Date:____________ NB. If it is suspected that your assignment contains the work of others falsely represented as your own, it will be referred to the Colleges Disciplinary Committee. Should the Committee be satisfied that plagiarism has occurred this is likely to lead to your failing the module and possibly to your being suspended or expelled from college. Complete the sections above and attach it to the front of one of the copies of your assignment.

  • National College of Ireland

    Hdip

    2013/2014

    Alastair Macnair

    x13129325

    alastair.macnair@ncirl.ie

    Can the weather kill goals?

    The effects of weather on goal outcome for football

    matches played within the German Bundesliga

    Dissertation

  • Table of Contents

    Executive Summary .............................................................................................. 5

    1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 6

    1.1 Background ............................................................................................. 6

    1.2 Aims ........................................................................................................ 7

    1.2.1 Research Questions ......................................................................... 9

    1.3 Solution Overview .................................................................................. 10

    1.4 Structure ................................................................................................ 11

    2 Literature Review and Related Work ........................................................... 12

    2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................ 12

    2.2 Statistical analysis in football ................................................................. 12

    2.2.1 Football Tradition versus Data Analysis .......................................... 12

    2.2.2 Statistical Methods in sports ........................................................... 13

    2.3 The effect of weather on sports performance ........................................ 15

    2.3.1 Weather, Altitude and measurement Indices. ................................. 15

    2.3.2 Weather Effects in Sport ................................................................. 16

    2.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 19

    3 System and Datasets .................................................................................. 20

    3.1 Design and Architecture ........................................................................ 20

    3.2 Datasets ................................................................................................ 21

    3.2.1 Data Set 1 Bundesliga Football Results ....................................... 21

    3.2.2 Data Set 2 Weather Observation Data for Germany .................... 21

    3.2.3 Data Set 3 - Stadiums ..................................................................... 22

    3.2.4 Data Set 4 - Weather Stations ........................................................ 22

    3.2.5 Limitations of the Data .................................................................... 23

    3.3 Data Processing .................................................................................... 24

    3.3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 24

    3.3.2 Football Match Data ........................................................................ 26

    3.3.3 Stadium Data Set creation .............................................................. 26

    3.3.4 Distance Matrix Calculation ............................................................. 26

    3.3.5 Checking Altitude Differential .......................................................... 27

  • - 3 -

    3.4 Dealing with Missing Data ..................................................................... 28

    3.5 Mashup .................................................................................................. 29

    3.6 Feature Engineering .............................................................................. 30

    4 Testing, Evaluation & Error Checking .......................................................... 32

    4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................ 32

    4.1.1 Test 01 Check Downloaded files .................................................. 32

    4.1.2 Test 02 Football match data set ................................................... 32

    4.1.3 Test 03 Weather Station data ...................................................... 32

    4.1.4 Test 04 Stadium Data .................................................................. 32

    4.1.5 Test 05 Distance Matrix ............................................................... 32

    4.1.6 Test 06 Imputed Data .................................................................. 33

    4.1.7 Test 07 Final Checking ................................................................ 34

    4.2 Data analysis ......................................................................................... 35

    4.2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 35

    4.2.2 Data Analysis Process and Methodology ........................................ 35

    4.2.3 Exploratory Analysis ....................................................................... 36

    4.2.4 Total Goals Analysis ....................................................................... 44

    4.2.5 Over/Under 2.5 goals scored .......................................................... 49

    4.2.6 Goal Difference ............................................................................... 53

    4.2.7 Home/Away Win or Draw ................................................................ 56

    4.3 Altitude Effects ....................................................................................... 59

    4.4 Scatter plots and correlation .................................................................. 60

    4.5 Data Mining and Predictive Modelling ................................................... 62

    4.6 Analysis Conclusion .............................................................................. 62

    5 Conclusions ................................................................................................. 64

    5.1.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 64

    5.1.2 Theoretical Implications .................................................................. 66

    5.1.3 Conclusion ...................................................................................... 67

    6 Further development or research ................................................................ 69

    7 References .................................................................................................. 70

    8 Appendix ..................................................................................................... 75

    8.1 Glossary of Terms ................................................................................. 75

  • - 4 -

    8.2 Geography ............................................................................................. 77

    8.2.1 Map of Europe and Germany .......................................................... 77

    8.2.2 Map of Germany ............................................................................. 78

    8.2.3 States of Germany (and created Regions) ...................................... 79

    8.2.4 Weather Station & Stadium Locations ............................................ 80

    8.2.5 Final weather station and Stadium locations ................................... 82

    8.3 Data Sets ............................................................................................... 83

    8.3.1 Football Data ................................................................................... 83

    8.3.2 Weather Observation Data .............................................................. 84

    8.3.3 Stadium Data .................................................................................. 88

    8.3.4 Weather Station Data ...................................................................... 91

    8.4 Data Set Variables ................................................................................. 92

    8.5 Nave Bayes probability outcomes ........................................................ 94

    8.6 List of Figures and Tables ..................................................................... 95

    8.7 List of Tables ......................................................................................... 96

    8.8 Initial Project Plan .................................................................................. 97

    8.9 Initial