The Effectiveness of Gun Control LawsKelsey Roberts

SUMMARYLegislative responses to higher crime rates, specifically homicide rates, often seek to raise the costs of legally obtaining and carrying firearms even though such a response to legal changes is theoretically ambiguous. This study focuses on the changes in concealed carry laws from 1999 to 2010, as many states have become less restrictive. Focusing on these changes in the right to carry laws within each state, I find no resulting effect on the homicide rate. This paper also examines whether perpetrators of homicides substitute other weapons in place of firearms in states with more restrictive carry laws. Considering the Uniform Crime Report’s data on murder by type of weapon, the analysis rejects this theory.

HYPOTHESISChanges in gun regulations will not significantly affect the murder rate, but will create a substitution effect to the least costly weapon.

FACTORSMaking it more costly for citizens to legally bear arms may reduce the availability of firearms that can be used to commit crimes. Conversely, reducing the ability of citizens to carry firearms may also reduce the ability of citizens to protect themselves from being victims of crime.

DATA ANALYSIS

REGRESSIONComplete prohibition of concealed carry is the dummy variable omitted from the regressions. All regressions include state and year fixed effects. Control variables in the equation include ability to carry in a restaurant, the non-murder violent crime rate, percentage Black, percentage Hispanic, median family income, employment of mental health counselors, number of executions lagged one year, arrests for sale of cocaine and opiates, and NICS additions and stock lagged one year.

ESTIMATIONThe dependent variable of the first regression is the rate of murder and non-negligent manslaughter. Using the same set of control variables, the second and third regressions measure the percentage of murders committed with any gun and the percentage of murders committed with other weapons, respectively.

RESULTSAs states move to less restrictive concealed carry laws, the murder rate decreased insignificantly. The non-murder violent crime rate and percentage Black held positive and significant coefficients. In the second set of regressions, the percentage of murders committed with firearms increased insignificantly as carrying a gun became less costly. The rate of total murders committed without guns decreased when states had some restrictions but increased when there were not any laws restricting concealed carry. However, these coefficients have insignificant t-values.

CONCLUSIONThis study shows a statistically insignificant negative relationship between the weakening of right-to-carry laws and the rate of murders committed in general and using a non-gun weapon. It also shows an insignificant positive relationship between the percentage of murders committed with a gun and the less restrictive concealed carry laws. The results lead to a general conclusion that the murder rate is a consequence of a naturally high crime rate and not a result of more or less restrictive concealed carry laws.