The Demographic Promise of

Expanded Female Education? Trends in Age at First Birth in Malawi

Monica J. Grant

University of Wisconsin-MadisonDepartment of Sociology

Center for Demography and Ecology

Education and Age at First Birth

• Education gradient in age at first birth (AFB)

– Most consistent association with secondary

school (Jejeebhoy 1995; Bledsoe et al. 1999;

Gupta and Mahy 2003)

• How education affects AFB

– Ideational changes

– Labor market prospects

– Autonomy development

Education Policy Change and AFB

• How association between education and

AFB changes over time (Gupta and Mahy 2003;

Lloyd 2005)

• Changing age of compulsory education

– Turkey (Kirder et al 2009); Ecuador (De Paoli 2009); Great Britain (Braakman 2011); Kenya (Ferre 2009)

• Variation in age at graduation

– Sweden (Skirbekk, Kohler, & Prskawetz 2004)

The Promise of Expanded Female

Education

• Jomtien 1990: “Education for All”

• Female education embraced as a population

policy at ICPD 1994

• Female education for economic development

– Girls Count

– “The Girl Effect”

– WDR 2012: Gender Equity and Development

– WDR 2007: Development and the Next Generation

Education not always empowering

• Gender biased classrooms

• Sexual harassment and abuse at

school

• Limited labor market outcomes for

educated women

• 1994: Free primary education policy

– 1993/4 enrollment: 1.9 million

– 1994/5 enrollment: 2.9 million

• 1998: Secondary school expansion

– Created Community Day Secondary

schools from existing DECs

– Tripled number of secondary school

students

Education Change in Malawi

• Did the education gradient in age at

first birth persist after Malawi’s

education policy changes?

• What factors have contributed to a

changing pattern of association?

Research Questions

Data

• Malawi DHS• 1992, 2000, 2004, 2010

• Age at first birth (months)

• Highest grade attended

None, Lower Primary,

Upper Primary,

Secondary

• Malawi Ministry of

Education, Science, and

Technology (MOEST)

data

Survey

year

Age when

free primary

introduced

Age when

CDSS

created

Exposure to

education

policies

1992 22-26 26-30 None

2000 14-18 18-22 Partial late

2004 10-14 14-18 Partial early

2010 4-8 8-12 Full

Women 20-24 Years Old at Time of Survey

Survey year Median years

of schooling

completed

Median age

of first birth

N

1992 2.9 18.9 953

2000 3.9 19.3 2957

2004 5.2 19.0 2870

2010 5.8 18.9 4555

Women 20-24 Years Old at Time of Survey

(1) (2) (3)

Coef S.E. Coef S.E. Coef S.E.

Survey year (ref. 1992)

2000 -0.01 0.01

2004 -0.01 0.01

2010 -0.02 0.01 *

Lower primary

Upper primary

Secondary or higher

Interaction terms

2000 * Lower primary

2000 * Upper primary

2000 * Secondary or higher

2004 * Lower primary

2004 * Upper primary

2004 * Secondary or higher

2010 * Lower primary

2010 * Upper primary

2010 * Secondary or higher

Accelerated Failure Time Regression: Age at First Birth

Note: All models control for urban/rural and region * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

(1) (2) (3)

Coef S.E. Coef S.E. Coef S.E.

Survey year (ref. 1992)

2000 -0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.01 **

2004 -0.01 0.01 -0.04 0.01 ***

2010 -0.02 0.02 * -0.05 0.01 ***

Lower primary 0.00 0.01

Upper primary 0.01 0.01

Secondary or higher 0.15 0.01 ***

Interaction terms

2000 * Lower primary

2000 * Upper primary

2000 * Secondary or higher

2004 * Lower primary

2004 * Upper primary

2004 * Secondary or higher

2010 * Lower primary

2010 * Upper primary

2010 * Secondary or higher

Accelerated Failure Time Regression: Age at First Birth

Note: All models control for urban/rural and region * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

(1) (2) (3)

Coef S.E. Coef S.E. Coef S.E.

Survey year (ref. 1992)

2000 -0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.01 ** -0.01 0.01

2004 -0.01 0.01 -0.04 0.01 *** -0.03 0.02

2010 -0.02 0.02 * -0.05 0.01 *** -0.03 0.02

Lower primary 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02

Upper primary 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02

Secondary or higher 0.15 0.01 *** 0.22 0.03 ***

Interaction terms

2000 * Lower primary -0.02 0.02

2000 * Upper primary -0.01 0.02

2000 * Secondary or higher -0.08 0.03 *

2004 * Lower primary -0.01 0.02

2004 * Upper primary -0.01 0.02

2004 * Secondary or higher -0.09 0.03 **

2010 * Lower primary -0.04 0.02 *

2010 * Upper primary -0.02 0.02

2010 * Secondary or higher -0.08 0.03 *

Accelerated Failure Time Regression: Age at First Birth

Note: All models control for urban/rural and region * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

• Selection

• Enrollment patterns and grade

progression

• School quality

Why has AFB declined among

secondary school attenders?

Passed Malawi Secondary Certificate Exam (MSCE)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1975 1985 1995 2005

Pe

rce

nt

of

stu

de

nts

wh

o p

asse

d M

SCE

Year

Total

Girls

Boys

(1) (2)

OLS First Stage (Yrs schlg) Second Stage (AFB)

Coef. SE Coef. SE Coef. SE

Years of schooling 0.29 0.01 ***

Exposure to Policy

1980-84 (vs. 1976-79)

Ethnicity (ref. Chewa)

Tumbuka -0.25 0.24

Lomwe -0.50 0.17 **

Yao 0.06 0.22

Ngoni -0.03 0.19

Other -0.16 0.18

Religion (ref. Catholic)

Protestant -0.03 0.11

Muslim -0.40 0.21

Other/none 0.10 0.59

Urban 0.03 0.15

Constant 17.47 0.25 ***

Linear Regression: Age at First Birth, Women Born 1976-1984

Note: All models include district-level fixed effects. * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

(1) (2)

OLS First Stage (Yrs schlg) Second Stage (AFB)

Coef. SE Coef. SE Coef. SE

Years of schooling 0.29 0.01 ***

Exposure to Policy

1980-84 (vs.

1976-79) 0.57 0.12 ***

Ethnicity (ref. Chewa)

Tumbuka -0.25 0.24 1.47 0.32 ***

Lomwe -0.50 0.17 ** 0.08 0.25

Yao 0.06 0.22 0.26 0.31

Ngoni -0.03 0.19 0.73 0.26 **

Other -0.16 0.18 0.01 0.27

Religion (ref. Catholic)

Protestant -0.03 0.11 -0.79 0.16 ***

Muslim -0.40 0.21 -1.64 0.30 ***

Other/none 0.10 0.59 -2.48 0.52 ***

Urban 0.03 0.15 2.71 0.20 ***

Constant 17.47 0.25 *** 5.63 0.35 ***

F-test (Exposure to policy) 23.48 ***

Linear Regression: Age at First Birth, Women Born 1976-1984

Note: All models include district-level fixed effects. * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

(1) (2)

OLS First Stage (Yrs schlg) Second Stage (AFB)

Coef. SE Coef. SE Coef. SE

Years of schooling 0.29 0.01 *** -0.44 0.21 *

Exposure to Policy

1980-84 (vs. 1976-79) 0.57 0.12 ***

Ethnicity (ref. Chewa)

Tumbuka -0.25 0.24 1.47 0.32 *** 0.83 0.43

Lomwe -0.50 0.17 ** 0.08 0.25 -0.44 0.26

Yao 0.06 0.22 0.26 0.31 0.27 0.31

Ngoni -0.03 0.19 0.73 0.26 ** 0.52 0.32

Other -0.16 0.18 0.01 0.27 -0.14 0.25

Religion (ref. Catholic)

Protestant -0.03 0.11 -0.79 0.16 *** -0.61 0.24 *

Muslim -0.40 0.21 -1.64 0.30 *** -1.62 0.48 ***

Other/none 0.10 0.59 -2.48 0.52 *** -1.78 0.82 *

Urban 0.03 0.15 2.71 0.20 *** 2.02 0.65 **

Constant 17.47 0.25 *** 5.63 0.35 *** 21.84 1.34 ***

F-test (Exposure to policy) 23.48 ***

Linear Regression: Age at First Birth, Women Born 1976-1984

Note: All models include district-level fixed effects. * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

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Ave

rage

age

of

curr

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tly

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rolle

d s

tud

en

ts

Year of secondary school

1992

2000

2004

2010

Average Age Currently Enrolled Secondary School Students

School Quality

• Heterogeneity by type of secondary

school

– Differences in resources, teacher

qualifications, learning outcomes

– Schoolgirl pregnancy

– Labor market prospects

• What would have happened if

secondary expanded without FPE?

• How well does the experience of

Malawi predict what will happen

elsewhere?

Additional Questions

0

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10 20 30 40 50afb

Distribution of AFB

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Pro

po

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Highest Grade Completed

2000

2004

2010

Grade-specific literacy rates