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The demographic challenge of higher education: Impacts of a decline in student numbers on the Scottish economy Kristinn Hermannsson Katerina Lisenkova Peter McGregor Kim Swales June 30, 2009 Scotland’s Universities and the Economy: Impact, Value and Challenges - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • The demographic challenge of higher education: Impacts of a decline in student numbers on the Scottish economy

    Kristinn HermannssonKaterina LisenkovaPeter McGregorKim Swales

    June 30, 2009Scotlands Universities and the Economy: Impact, Value and Challenges

    Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde; Centre for Public Policy for Regions (CPPR), Universities of Glasgow and Strathclyde

  • The demographic challenge for HEIsDemographic changes in the UK are projected to result in a fall in the number of students

    Recent Universities UK report makes projections of likely numbers of students

    We provide a CGE analysis of likely impacts on Scottish economy of Universities UK scenarios

  • In 2007 71% of the first year full-time UK-domiciled undergraduates were aged 18-20-16.9%-11.0%

    Chart2

    202428

    204294

    203819

    203551

    204305

    205519

    204267

    199890

    193857

    189486

    187134

    185181

    182902

    177656

    173239

    169030

    168254

    169813

    173049

    175832

    178234

    180093

    thousands of persons

    Population aged 18-20Scotland2006-based principal GAD/ONS projection

    HEI income

    Table 1 - Income of UK HE institutions by source and location of institution 2004/05 ( thousands)

    North EastNorth WestYorkshire & the HumberEast MidlandsWest MidlandsEastLondonSouth EastSouth WestThe Open UniversityEngland totalWalesScotlandNorthern IrelandAll UK institutions

    Total income7623661711821142242310889281285519138362837734192041095101893133323014821360853126193634438233217993162

    Funding Council grants307123688431559535442910479742398179135593175363745024418270956184413555738106871826456967346

    HE provision(#7)

    Recurrent grants (Teaching)21876350805139034232731633646523955485378846592632700616830938355202470025642961286154775433

    Recurrent grants (Research)472191108501056596324169678110649310948190948635315834107855761920178360395541358391

    Recurrent grants (other)32101481983744323349456722830510596268024420556349437458319675153510059531019

    Release of deferred capital grants90401528616564115421615912367422282004613526221715897511774164964417191662

    FE provision(#8)0604695271746211768730443005869341260107931291000110841

    Tuition fees & education grants & contracts1889454198963681852990513356752865519862954623342245591155153687006189504396830623124335652

    Home & EU domicile

    FT HE fees

    Standard rates667901607791370631131781042426768923235615162298403287113240986673168916320831420081

    Non-standard rates30080691165839542352846815650115811873207275710600021275944174811412680775

    PT HE fees15227379382646830725247931764986490410741961711326941325015600246329303462785

    Non-EU domicile59484120919119075972351015259082240176415558567036136112148064871712477474761395773

    Non-credit-bearing course fees115652559818601104041102650384883392639997895582526638238280691973290943

    Other fees & support grants579955468583515794083506192281444721434073857268286916585295

    Research grants & contracts10121424234822364314321415869228226369601136933112210384202347239105600365425656362883900

    OST Research Councils2831687298761395321949164110459171876145082459704589772112288091178777496926294

    UK-based charities1847943164445282094927124640752495278944726866123058538915258932666139700052

    UK central government/local authorities, health & hospital authorities2993865840544952859655407318611058194247424755849440034257686859231467565861

    UK industry, commerce & public corporations648814476217042015011604355135462523382115814111999348506321092856243405

    EU sources11624201101700312504108611935446262372039104109318511812003294779915236513

    Other overseas sources3920857771744776242517731534682685530272311281842602166553810151251

    Other sources2449288326003020210732701443448888001736468126547449395360524

    Other income - other services rendered4949694806593125089770116200347153159998374183925198223288236987880151071007684

    UK central government/local authorities, health & hospital authorities, EU government bodies27582566831989116639317738503252879139601223126231693254536301839603411254

    Other21914381233942134258383431153151002808587729608225750539627833576975504596430

    Other income - other106652236665195633144558226092168965522743305498169347163212092474105486247891532142499065

    Residences & catering operations (including conferences)533891031369459389827984156433018810215542175551092276455830111517127541102865

    Grants from local authorities00685700123102010212482702213

    Income from health & hospital authorities (excluding teaching contracts)13193233013225518217158241981210232111215320270268165144321942718255320279

    Release of deferred capital grants520654145971213874469364153345550510766153628688568200674978

    Income from intellectual property rights438053010446608313250591808405503195271481676874128517

    Other operating income344261048146159933325977997232721069613150456056158128183583079310160419458970213

    Endowment & investment income8936296751611582981520247323592805045810839774625387214594276313418299515

    # see relevant footnote in Notes to tables.

    Copyright Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited 2006

    &C&"Arial,Bold"&8&P

    ScottishStudents

    ukregions students

    students by uk region

    InstitutionTotal2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsUK domiciledDomicile (Region)Scotland2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsNon-UK domiciledDomicile (Region)Geographic region - Other European Union2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsNon-UK domiciledDomicile (Region)Geographic region - Other Europe2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsNon-UK domiciledDomicile (Region)Geographic region - Africa2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsNon-UK domiciledDomicile (Region)Geographic region - Asia2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsNon-UK domiciledDomicile (Region)Geographic region - Australasia2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsNon-UK domiciledDomicile (Region)Geographic region - Middle East2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsNon-UK domiciledDomicile (Region)Geographic region - North America2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsNon-UK domiciledDomicile (Region)Geographic region - South America2005/06Student headcount - HEAll yearsNon-UK domiciledDomicile (Region)Geographic region - Non-European Union unknownInternationalRUKnon-ScottishScottish Studentstotal

    The University of Aberdeen13760964588575185695101402451545229518204115964513760

    University of Abertay Dundee4125297041510403600151055860295115529704125

    Bell College4720468550050000010253546854720

    The University of Dundee186101300570550570960352004654053030257556051300518610

    Edinburgh College of Art170584519545512051580504703908608451705

    The University of Edinburgh2371511650163024515013055010574060042857780120651165023715

    Glasgow Caledonian University17045149703654018048010954505122085520751497017045

    Glasgow School of Art155582013535106501045003004357358201555

    The University of Glasgow235901863075070100985101353601002420254049601863023590

    Heriot-Watt University10225488510051252701165152001359010301523255340488510225

    Napier University148501071017306518091510809510103095104541401071014850

    Northern College of Education1304011810470535410020150095527512301181013040

    Queen Margaret University, Edinburgh5410383026545305105352500915665158038305410

    The Robert Gordon University127909465810100500106510908020026756503325946512790

    The Royal Scottish Academy of Music and Drama6804404010515503500110130240440680

    The University of St Andrews86452915835100406051535129515029402790573029158645

    Scottish Agricultural College77067020005000002575100670770

    The University of Stirling8940678033545704455356510010101150216067808940

    The University of Strathclyde2510521535750130250108015155165400258598535702153525105

    UHI Millennium Institute6600631011550500150514514529063106600

    The University of the West of Scotland150001181047053541002015009552235

    156570333152918559310156570215880

    Notes to table84%

    The University of Cambridge - 2005/06

    The University of Cambridge has taken the opportunity of a new student record system to review the recording of student data. The Head of Planning and Resource Allocation at the University of Cambridge should be consulted about significant variances when

    Definitions

    HESA Rounding strategy

    Due to the provisions of the Data Protection Act 1998 and the Human Rights Act 1998, HESA implements a strategy in published and released tabulations designed to prevent the disclosure of personal information about any individual. These tabulations are de

    0, 1, 2 are rounded to 0

    All other numbers are rounded to the nearest multiple of 5

    So for example 3 is represented as 5, 22 is represented as 20, 3286 is represented as 3285 while 0, 20, 55, 3510 remain unchanged.

    This rounding strategy is also applied to total figures: the consequence of which is that the sum of numbers in each row or column rarely match the total shown precisely. Note that subject level data calculated by apportionment will also be rounded in acc

    Average values, proportions and FTE values prepared by HESA are not usually affected by the above strategy, and are calculated on precise raw numbers. However, percentages calculated on populations which contain 52 or fewer individuals will be suppressed

    STUDENT DEFINITIONS

    Please find below the Student definitions

    Coverage - 2002/03 to 2006/07

    Higher education (HE) students are those students on programmes o