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SPEC BarometerPress Release: One-Third Gender Rule

Prepared by: Ipsos

Release date: 8th May 2015

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Methodology

Methodology

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Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015

Sample Size 1,964

Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)

Universe

Data collection methodology

Sampling error

Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Poll funding Ipsos Limited

Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in Urban and Rural areas

+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

Sample Structure Statistics

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RegionSample Frame statistics

(April 2015)*Weighted data

% Population Census as at 2009

Adults (18 years +)%

Central 257 13 2,548,038 13

Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9

Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15

Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10

North Eastern94* 5 929,158 5

Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13

Rift Valley484 25 4,795,482 25

Western 200 10 1,980,090 10

TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100

Quality Control Measures

For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout

Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).

After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).

Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.

Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.

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Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data

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Respondents’ Demographic Profile:

Catholic

Catholic Charismatic

Mainstream Protestant (ACK, Methodist, Presbyterian, AIC)

SDA

Evangelical

Other Christian

Muslim

Refused To Answer/None

No religion

Public Sector wages/salary

Private sector wages /salary

Gains from self employment/ Business owner/trader

Agriculture (own/household farm)

Livestock

Given money by others

Pension from previous employment

Other

Don’t Know

Refused To Answer

28%

2%

30%

8%

11%

9%

10%

1%

1%

9%

22%

28%

23%

4%

4%

2%

5%

1%

2%

Demographic Profile

Nairobi

Coast

Nyanza

Rift Valley

North Eastern

Eastern

Central

Western

Female

Male

18 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45+

Urban

Rural

Kenyans

10%

9%

13%

25%

5%

15%

13%

10%

51%

49%

28%

29%

18%

25%

37%

63%

100%

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Region

Gender

Age

Setting

Religion

Nationality

Source of Household Income

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Demographic Profile

No formal education

Some primary education

Primary education completed

Some secondary education

Secondary education completed

Some middle level college (not university)

Completed mid-level college (Not University)

Some University education

University education completed

Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)

Less than 10,000

10,001 – 25,000

25,001 – 40,000

40,001 – 55,000

55,001 – 75,000

75,001 – 100,000

100,001 and above

Has No income

RTA/DK

4%

14%

19%

14%

26%

8%

7%

3%

3%

1%

42%

33%

11%

4%

1%

1%

0%

2%

7%

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Level of Education

Monthly Household Income (ALL members of the Household)

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Demographic Profile

Self-Employed

Unemployed

Employed in the private sector

Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)

Casual labour

Employed in the public sector

Student

Retired

Other

41%

18%

11%

10%

7%

5%

5%

2%

1%

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Employment Status

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

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Awareness of 1/3 Gender Rule

“If you know, what is the constitutional requirement about the representation of women in all elected bodies such as parliament, county assemblies?” (By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

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Total (n=1,964) Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008) CORD Supporters (n=624)

Jubilee Supporters (n=871)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

39%

45%

33%

41%44%

25% 25% 24% 24% 24%

37%

29%

43%

36%

32%

Correct answer [at least one-third women] Incorrect answer Don't Know

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YES; 52%

NO; 34%

Not sure/Don't Know; 14%

Base: Those aware of the one-third gender rule (n=764)

“Do you think that this requirement will be met within the period stated in the constitution (August 2015)?” (By Total)

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All respondents (n=1,964)

Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008) CORD Supporters (n=624)

Jubilee Supporters (n=871)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

48% 47% 48%44%

53%

27%32%

23%29% 27%25%

21%

29% 28%

20%

YES NO Not sure

“Do you think having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would improve the quality of politics and governance?” (By Total, Gender, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

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Those aware of the 1/3 Gender rule

(n=764)

Male (n=435) Female (n=329) CORD Supporters (n=254)

Jubilee Supporters (n=384)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

66%63%

70%66% 65%

27%31%

22% 24%29%

7% 6% 8% 10%6%

YES NO Not sure

“Do you think having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would improve the quality of politics and governance?” (Of Those Aware of the 1/3 Gender Rule: by Total, Gender, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

For further information contact: Dr Tom WolfSocial Political Consultanttpwolf1944@gmail.com

Victor RatengProject Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com

Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe

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