the coming avian flu pandemic

8/14/2019 The Coming Avian Flu Pandemic

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The Coming Avian Flu Pandemic

Looking into Lessons of the Past toPlan for the Future


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Flu Terms Defined

Seasonal (or common) flu is a respiratoryillness that can be transmitted person toperson. Most people have some immunity, anda vaccine is available.

Avian (or bird) flu is caused by influenza viruses

that occur naturally among wild birds. The H5N1variant is deadly to domestic fowl and can betransmitted from birds to humans. There is nohuman immunity and no vaccine is available.

Pandemic flu is virulent human flu that causes aglobal outbreak, or pandemic, of serious illness.Because there is little natural immunity, thedisease can spread easily from person toperson. Currently, there is no pandemic flu.


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A Historical Perspective

In the last century there were three influenzapandemics. All of them were called pandemicsbecause of their worldwide spread and becausethey were caused by a new influenza virus. The1918 pandemic was especially severe.

1918-1919 Most severe, caused at least 675,000U.S. deaths and up to 50 million deaths worldwide.

1957-1958 Moderately severe, caused at least70,000 U.S. deaths and 1-2 million deathsworldwide.

1968-1969 Least severe, caused at least 34,000U.S. deaths and 700,000 deaths worldwide.


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The 1918 flu virus is resurrected


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How virulent was the 1918 flu?

50 times as many virus particles are released fromhuman lung cells a day after infection with the 1918virus as are released after exposure to acontemporary strain called the Texas virus.

13% of body weight is lost by mice 2 days after infection with 1918 flu; weight loss is only transientin mice infected with the Texas strain.

39,000 times more virus particles are found inmouse lung tissue 4 days after infection with 1918flu than are found with the Texas virus.

All mice died within 6 days of infection with 1918

flu; none died from the Texas strain.


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The Coming vian lu andemic

Deadly avian flu is on the wing Carried by migratory birds across Asia intheir digestive track (Avian)

H5N1, the avian flu subtype that has killed61 people in Southeast Asia is spreading

H5N1 is on the verge of mutating into apandemic form like that which killed 50 to

100 million people in the fall of 1918 H5N1's human epicenter will expand into

the dense overcrowded slums of Asia


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Bird Migration


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Nations With Confirmed CasesH5N1 Avian Influenza (May 12)


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Likely Scenario: The Beginning In April of 2008, an outbreak of severe respiratory

illness is identified in a small Asian village In May, Twenty patients have required

hospitalization at the local hospital, five of whomhave died from pneumonia and respiratory failure

The flu spreads and begins to make headlinesaround the world. Top health officials swing intoaction and isolate the new viral strain inlaboratories. The scientists discover that "thevaccine developed previously for the avian strainwill only provide partial protection,"

In June, federal health officials find airlinepassengers infected with the virus "arriving in four major U.S. cities,"


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1st Week Spread


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The Outbreak

By July, small outbreaks are being reportedaround the nation. The Killer Flu spreads rapidly from cities to

rural areas. As the outbreak peaks, about a quarter of

workers stay home because they are sick or afraid of becoming sick. Hospitals are

overwhelmed.


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2nd and 3 rd Weeks Spread


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4 th Week Spread


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5 th Week


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The Endgame

"Social unrest occurs" "Public anxiety heightens mistrust of government, diminishing compliance withpublic health advisories." Mortuaries andfuneral homes are overwhelmed.

1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5million would be hospitalized


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Struggling with the flu

Troubling weaknesses in the nation's public-health system. The United States relies on private

companies to make flu vaccine. Bush signed the Project Bioshield Act in

2004 yet little has been done. Whether the threat is bioterror or flu, the

lack of vigor in the health care system isbecome critical.


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U.S. Slowly Preparing for Deadly Flu

The United States is slowly preparing for what could become the worst disaster in thenation's history.

The flu is one of the most infectious agents

to humans A concern about avian flu has prompted theSenate to approve $4 billion for bird flureadiness.

A plan has been developedby the Bush administrationto deal with any possible out break

of the avian flu.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/nspi_implementation.pdfhttp://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/nspi_implementation.pdf


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State Government should PrepareNow A large outbreak that begins in Asia would

likely strike the US within weeks. Who will get vaccines first:

workers in plants making the vaccines medical personnel elderly and severely ill

pregnant women transplant and AIDS patients parents of infants police, firefighters and government leaders


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Be Prepared Stock a supply of water and food. During a

pandemic you may not be able to get to a store.Even if you can get to a store, it may be out of supplies. Public waterworks services may alsobe interrupted. Stocking supplies can be usefulin other types of emergencies, such as power outages and disasters.

Store foods that: are nonperishable (will keep for a long time) and don't

require refrigeration are easy to prepare in case you are unable to cook require little or no water, so you can conserve water for

drinking


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Get Informed Knowing the facts is the best preparation. Identify

sources you can count on for reliable information. If apandemic occurs, having accurate and reliableinformation will be critical.

Reliable, accurate, and timely information is available atwww.pandemicflu.gov.

Another source for information on pandemic influenza is theCenters for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Hotline at:1-800-CDC-INFO (1-800-232-4636). This line is available inEnglish and Spanish, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. TTY: 1-888-232-6348. Questions can be e-mailed [email protected] .

Look for information on your local and state government Web

sites. Links are available to each state department of publichealth at www.cdc.gov/other.htm#states . Listen to local and national radio, watch news reports on

television, and read your newspaper and other sources of printed and Web-based information.

Talk to your local health care providers and public health

officials.
mailto:[email protected]://www.cdc.gov/other.htmhttp://www.cdc.gov/other.htmmailto:[email protected]


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At the Tipping Point The California Legislature should approve an

Omnibus Reporting Act

People in close or crowded contact (like collegestudents) should become aware of the Flu.

Antiviral medications (like Tamiflu) can be taken to: Reduce the severity and duration of symptoms caused by

infection with the influenza virus. Shorten the length of the illness. Control outbreaks of the flu. Reduce the spread of the virus to people at high risk for

severe complications of the flu (high-risk groups). Reduce complications from the flu.

Get Your Yearly immunization

the coming avian flu pandemic

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