The Collaborative City: Future Scenarios

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The accompanies the launch report and includes the six scenarios developed as part of the early London Collaborative work, along with an account of the process by which the scarious were developed, and an indication of how they can be used.

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  • thelondoncollaborative

    The Collaborative CityFuture Scenarios

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS

    The Collaborative City Future Scenarios

    Contents

    Introduction________________________________________________________________________________ 1

    1.FullSpeedAhead:SuperGlobalCity___________________________________________________ 7

    2.HittingtheBuffers:LondonFallingApart____________________________________________13

    3.SteadyAhead:GrowingOutwards,GrowingGreener _______________________________18

    4.KnockedOffCourse:ShockstotheSystem___________________________________________24

    5.OutofControl:DividedCity ___________________________________________________________27

    .BrakesOn:LondonintheSlowLane _________________________________________________31 6

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS

  • assumptions.

    Thethreecorescenariosi.e.thethreewiththehighestlikelihoodwithinthe15yeartimeframearedescribedbelow,alongwithanoverviewofthemainchallengesandissuestheyraiseforpublicservices,

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 1

    Introduction ThefutureofacityascomplexandunpredictableasLondonisinherentlyunknowable.Butaswithothercomplextopics,scenarioscanprovideahelpfulway

    oprepare.ofthinkingaboutdifferentpossiblefuturesanddecidingthebestwayt

    Thisreport,whichaccompaniesthemainLondonCollaborativereportTheCollaborativeCity,includesthesixscenariosdevelopedaspartoftheearlyLondonCollaborativework,alongwithanaccountoftheprocessbywhichthescenariosweredeveloped,andanindicationofhowtheycanbeused.

    Thescenariosincludedinthisreportarenotendsinthemselves,buttoolstosurfacekeystrategicchallenges,choices,tensionsandtradeoffs.Theyhavebeentestedalreadybypublicsectorleadersinaseriesofworkshops,andrefinedinlightoffeedback.

    ThisreportshouldbereadalongsidetheFuturetrendsevidencereviewreport,whichoffersananalysisofmorethan50studiesaboutthefutureofLondon,anevidencebasethatprovidedavitalunderpinningforthescenarios.

    What do the scenarios cover? WehavedevelopedsixalternativescenariosofthefutureofLondonin2023.Eachscenariooffersachronology,indicatingthestepsalongthewaytothispossiblefuturesituation.Allofthescenariosthencover,tovaryingdegrees,thefollowing

    aspectsoffutureLondon:

    e1. Demographicchang

    2. Economyandskills

    3. Housingandinfrastructure vironment4. Climatechangeandtheen

    5. Technologicalinnovation

    s6. Lifestylesandbehaviour d7. Socialcohesion/discor

    8. HealthandwellbeingNoneofthescenariosareintendedtopredictthefutureofLondon:thechancesofthecapitalactuallylooking,feelingorworkinglikethe2023asdescribedinanyoneofthescenariosarevirtuallynonexistent.Butwiththissaid,theeventsdescribedinsomeofthescenariosaremorelikelytooccurthanothers,givencurrentdataand

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 2

    Scenario 1: Full Speed Ahead Super Global City InthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbyhighpopulationgrowth,aprevailingsocialattitudeoftolerantcoexistenceandaverystrongeconomy(i.e.onewithgrowthinoutputandemploymentexceedingthemostoptimisticofcurrentpredictions).SignificantandcontinuinginvestmentinLondonstransportinfrastructureenablescontinuingpopulationandworkforcemobility.Thereisamature,wellestablishedmarketforpublicserviceprovision,inwhichprivateand

    rs.thirdsectorprovidersaremajorplaye

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    Whatshouldtheroleofthepublicsectorbeinaprivatesectordominatedfuture?

    Howtocopewithanextremelymobileandchangingpopulation. Theissues(e.g.governance)posedbyaLondonplushinterlandscenario.

    Scenario 2: Hitting the Buffers London Falling Apart ThisscenarioexplorestheimpactonLondonofincreasingoutmigrationbutsteadypopulationgrowthduetoahigherthanexpectedbirthrate,andaprolongedrecession.Thesetrendscombinewithotherstocreateaprevailingsocialclimateoffear,suspicionandcompetitionbetweencommunities.Thecapitalhaslongbeenovertakenbyinternationalcompetitorsandisnolongerthedestinationofchoiceforeconomicmigrants,letalonetourists.Thepoorestpeopleliveincreasinglybeyondthemarginsofformalsociety:inhealthandhousingconditionsthatseemtobelonginapastcentury.

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    ofrecession.Preventingbraindrainandmajorskillsshortagesintheevent Dealingwithchronichealth,employmentandcrimeproblems. Howtorespondtoseverecommunitytensions,includingtheriseofthefarright.

    Scenario 3: Steady Ahead Growing Outwards, Growing Greener InthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbypopulationgrowthinthemiddlebandofcurrentpredictions,aprevailingsocialattitudeoftolerantcoexistenceandmediumeconomicgrowth(i.e.withgrowthinoutputandemploymentinlinewithcurrentlongtermpredictions).Thelastfifteenyearshaveseenashiftofpeople,moneyandpowerfromthecentretothesuburbs,andfromthereonwardsdowntolocalwardsandcommunities.Whilstthishashadmanypositivebenefits,Londonasawholeissomethingofapatchwork,andstandardsvaryconsiderably.Sustainabilityandtheenvironmenthavecontinuedtheirsteadyriseupthepoliticalandpersonalagendas.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 3

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    aintainingstandards.Balancingcommunityleddecisionmakingwithm Theimpactofamajorincreaseinhomeworking.

    Whatpartpublicservicesshouldplayinfacilitatingenvironmentalchange.

    Theotherthreescenarios,whicharearguablylesslikelybutarestillworthyofcarefulconsiderationbecauseofthetypeofopportunitiesorchallengestheypose,are:

    Scenario 4: Knocked Off Course? Shocks to the System Inthisvisionof2023LondonisrecoveringfromanumberofdisastersoverthepastthreeyearsincludingayearofsustainedfloodingthatleftinfrastructureruinedandaffectedthelivesofthousandsofLondoners.Inspiteofthis,Londonisamuchmorecohesivecitythaninpreviousdecades,andamajorpublicreconstructionprogrammehashelpedthecapitalavoidaprolongedrecession.Conditionsinsome

    jorhealthandcrimeproblems,however.areasremainextremelypoor,withma

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    Howtoplanforthepostdisasterphaseofreconstruction. Providinglongtermforthemostseverelyhitcommunities.

    Scenario 5: Off the Rails Divided City Londoninthisscenarioischaracterisedbypopulationandeconomicgrowthinthemiddlebandofcurrentpredictions,butissufferingfromaprevailingsocialattitudeofsegregation,fearandsuspicioncausedbyglobalinstabilityandsustainedterroristthreat.

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    elations.Howtorespondtogloballydriventrends,e.g.incommunityr Potentialofhousingpolicytoamelioratespatialsegregation.

    Scenario 6: Brakes On London in the Slow Lane Thisscenarioischaracterisedbyashrinkingpopulationandprolongedrecession,butgenerallystrongtiesbetweendifferentcommunitiesandgoodlevelsofcohesiveness.Londonisnolongerthemagnetitoncewasforcorporateinvestors,so

    ismhavesteppedintofillthegap.thepublicsectorandcommunityactiv

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    gpopulation.Dealingwiththeunexpected,inparticularashrinkin Respondingtotheprivatesectorquittingthecity.

  • Thediagrambelowconveyshowthescenariossitinrelationtoeachother,intermsftheiroveralllikelihoodinthetimeframeweareconsidering(thenext15years).o

    Off the rails-Social cohesion

    breaks down

    Breaks on-Slower growth,

    more sustainability

    Likely

    Uncertain

    Random

    Steady ahead

    Hitting the buffers-Slowdown in UK economy

    Super global city- Population and economy grow

    fast

    Knocked off Course

    Shocks to thesystem

    Consider Carefully in

    planning

    Less certain

    Be preparedand resilient

    Flood Economic collapseTerrorist

    attack Riot

    How were the scenarios developed? Thesescenariosweredevelopedonthebasisofsecondaryratherthannewprimaryresearch.ThistooktheformofanextensivereviewofexistingevidenceandanalysisaboutthefutureofLondon,thefindingsofwhicharecapturedintheseparately

    ort.publishedFuturetrendsevidencereviewrep

    Thisreviewprovideduswiththescenariocontent,andinparticularasoundunderstandingoftherangeofpossiblefutures.Thecontentofallofthescenariostakentogetherisrepresentedbythelistofeightfactorsoutlinedearlier.

    Thenextstepwastodefinethescenarioparameters:thefactorsthatwouldframeordriveeachoftheimagesofthefuture.Clearparametersareimportantinorder

    tivethread.togiveeachscenarioastrongrationaleandnarra

    arioparameters:Threefactorsprovideourscen

    wth1. Rateofpopulationgro 2. Stateoftheeconomy

    3. Strengthoftiesbetweencommunities

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 4

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 5

    Thesefactorswerechosenoverothersbecausetheywerefelttobeareasofhighimpact,butalsofundamentaluncertainty.Oneofthekeymessagesfromourexpertworkshopwasthatdespitetheairofpredictabilityprovidedbypopulationoreconomicprojections,trendsintheseareascanchangerapidlyandwithfarreachingconsequences.Andourreviewofevidencesuggestedthatsocietalattitudesandcommunitycohesionwereparticularlyhardtopredict,butoffundamentalimportance.

    Ourscenarioparameterswerealsochosenbecausetheyarecomparativelyindependentasvariables:outsideofthecontrolofanyoneorganisation(includinganyonepublicbody)orindividual,andapowerfuldriverofchangeinotherareas.Weuseddifferentconfigurationsofeachofthethreefactorstoframeeachofthescenarios,andthefirstparagraphofeachofthescenariosdescribesthisstartingpoint.

    Otherfactorsconsideredanddiscountedincludedclimatechange,whichwhilstclearlyimportantforthefutureofLondonwasfelttobetoocertainbutalsolikelytobedirectlyexperiencedtoonlyasmallextentinthe15yeartimeframe;andgovernance/theroleofthestate,whichisincludedasthelensthroughwhichallotherfactorsarerefractedinthescenarios.

    DraftsofthecorescenarioswerethentestedbyparticipantsinfoursharedinterestworkshopsheldduringFebruary2008.Workshopparticipants,includingmembersofourLeadershipNetworkalongwithacademicsandleadingpolicymakers,wereaskedtoconsiderboththeopportunitiesandchallengesthescenariosposedfortheirorganisationandhowthescenariotheywereaskedtofocusonmightbemademorecoherent,consistentanduseful.

    Feedbackfromworkshopdiscussionswasusedtomakesubstantialamendmentstothescenariosandhashelpedustodeveloptheversionspresentedherein.

    How can the scenarios be used? Thescenarioswillhaveawiderangeofpotentialapplications,including,butnotlimitedto:

    usingthescenariosasthebasisforawholesystemsimulation,whereinparticipantstakeonaroleinthefutureasoutlinedinoneormoreofthe

    policyresponses;scenarios,andusethisexercisetotestoutorganisationaland

    disaggregatingthescenariosandrebuildingapreferred,ornormativescenario,basedoncurrentpreferencesets;

    takingthesescenariosasglobalversionsofthefutureanddoingfurtherresearchandanalysistocreatemoredetailedscenariosforaparticularsector,industryororganisationsituatedwithintheglobalframework;

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 6

    usingthescenariostotestoutthestrengthsandweaknessesofaparticularpolicyprogrammeorcourseofaction,usingtheopportunitiesandchallengespresentedbythescenarios;

    workingacrossthescenarios,perhapsinaworkshopsetting,todefinetheos.robustactionsfortodayi.e.thosethatholdacrossallofthescenari

    Theremainderofthisreportismadeupbythesixscenariosthemselves.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 7

    1. Full Speed Ahead: SuperInthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbyhighpopulationgrowth,aprevailingsocialattitudeoftolerantcoexistenceandaverystrongeconomy(i.e.growthin

    .

    Global City

    outputandemploymentexceedthemostoptimisticofcurrentpredictions)

    Its2023andLondonisbooming.Asyoung,dynamic,creativecity,twentysomethingsfromacrosstheworldareheadingforLondonasbetterofffamiliesandolderLondonersincreasinglychoosetomoveouttotheHomeCounties.

    LondonsworkforceiscolonisingtheSouthEastasneverbefore,confirmingitasthemegacitythatithaslongpromisedtobecome.Thishasbeenenabledaboveallbythehugeimprovementsinpublictransportinfrastructure,drivenbyastrongregionalassemblywhichincreasinglyleavesboroughcouncilsintheshade.

    WithintheboundariesofGreaterLondonitself,populationgrowthishigherthanpredictionsatthestartofthecenturysuggested,buttheeconomyisstrongandthereisaclimateoftolerancetowardsnewimmigrantsbothfromEasternEuropeanddevelopingnations,eventhoughgenuineintegrationislessevident.

    Transportaside,thepublicsectorhasfoundithardtokeeppacewiththegrowthofbusiness,however,andthisfastmoving,highchurnpopulationaremostlyhappyfortheprivateandthirdsectorstoprovidemoreofthoseservicestraditionallyofferedythestate.b

    Chronology

    AllofthescenariosofferanimageofLondonin2023.Thefollowingaresomeofthekeypointsinthedevelopmentofthisparticulartrajectoryofthefuturewhathappened .betweennow(2008)andthen(2023)tobringthisscenariointobeing

    2013:Londonsemploymentratetops72percent,andpredictionsarethatitwillcontinuetorise.

    2015:AreportfromthegovernmentsunifiedregulatorybodyhighlightstherealandgrowingproblemsofpublicspendingfailingtokeeppacewiththegrowthintheeconomyofLondon.Transportistheonlypublicservicewhichhaskeptpacewithgrowth,andinothersacrisisispredictedannually.

    2018:Crossrailopens,alittlelaterthanplanned,andisanimmediatesuccesswiththepublic.EastLondonhasalreadybenefitedhugelyfromtheprospectofitsarrivalwithcompanieskeentosetupalongtheroute.

    2021:Agovernmentreportsuggeststhat1millionoverseasmigrantshavearrivedintheUKduringthepast5years.ManyliveinLondon,whosepopulationnowstandsat8.9million,upfrom7.3millionattheturnofthecenturyandabovetheestimatesbeingmadetwentyyearsago.

  • Economy, skills and consumerism Withaneconomythatwasstrugglinginthenineties,thrivinginthenoughtiesandbuzzingintheteenies,Londonin2023isacityofconstantreinventionthathas

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 8

    Population, immigration and demographic change Migration,bothfromwithintheUKandoverseas,hasledGreaterLondonspopulationtoincreaseto8.9millionbeyondthepredictionsbeingmadeadecadeago.EasternEuropeansfromEUmemberstates(includingTurkey)accountformuchoftheinmigrationtoLondon,alongwithAfricansandSouthAmericans.LondonsprosperitymeansthatmostarequicklyabsorbedintothejobsmarketandexperienceahighdegreeoftolerancefromtheirfellowLondoners.NewoverseasarrivalstendtocongregatewiththeircountrymeninvariouspartsofLondon,butpropertypricesandthesuccessfulpushfornewmixedtenurehousingacrossthecity(drivenbyastrongLondonassembly)havereducedtheriskofincreasedspatialsegregationbetweendifferentethnicandevensocioeconomicgroups.Asaresult,spatialintegrationishigh.Andyet,exceptforinthepoorest(usuallyimmigrant)communities,socialbondsbetweenneighbourstendtoberelativelyweak.

    SizeandethnicdiversityarenottheonlynotablefeaturesofLondonspopulationin2023itsrapidlyshiftingageprofileisalsostriking.LikeallWesternnations,theUKpopulationisageing,yetinLondonitisageingatamuchslowerratethanintherestoftheUK,thankstoitspopularityamongsttheyoung(bothhighearninginternationalgraduatesandlowerskilledmigrants).Families,middleagedpeopleandtheretiredareincreasinglyoptingtomoveoutofGreaterLondonanddispersingtootherpartsoftheSouthEastwhatjournalistscallthemiddleagedspread.ItistruethattheproportionofLondonresidentsagedoversixtyhasgrownsincethestartofthecentury,butonlybyaround3percentratherthanthe5percentpredicted,andinstarkcontrasttothe14percentriseexperiencednationally.Whatsmore,thesefiguresmaskgrowingagepolarisation.InnerLondonboroughsare,onthewhole,gettingyoungerwhilstouterLondonboroughsgetolder.ThoseelderlypeopleremainingininnerLondonareincreasinglyconcentratedatthepoorerendofthespectrumandtendtoliveinrentedaccommodationoneofthefewlifestyletraitstheysharewiththeiryoungneighbours.

    TheflightofolderLondonersandtheinfluxoftheyoung,alongwithcontinuedmigration,meanthatLondonisacityofhighhumanchurn.Thisinevitablyunderminescontinuitywithinlocalcommunities,andfewerpeoplethaneverclaimtoknowtheirneighboursorfeelanyrealattachmenttowheretheylive.Astheextendedfamiliesdisperseandasthemiddleagedleave,soLondonsneighbourhoodslosetheverypeoplewhotypicallymaintainedthecommunitygroups,clubsandsocietiesthatformedtheirsocialglue.Forpeoplewhofeeltheyaredoingwellinaprosperous,tolerantcity,thisrarelyseemstomatter,butsomefearitsstoringupsocialproblemsforthefuture.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 9

    resistedthetemptationtorestonitslaurelsandis,somesay,asexcitingasthenewglobalcitiesofMumbaiandBeijing.ThebackingofsuccessivemayorsforaquestforglobaldominanceissymbolisedbythenewiconicofficebuildingsthathavesprungupinDocklands,theCityandpartsofEastLondon.Acontinualflowofmigrantsensuresthatskillsgapsarebeingmet.Whatsmore,higherstandardsineducationandinnovativepartnershipsbetweenbusinessandcollegesparticularlysincetheraisingoftheschoolleavingagein2013areseeinggreateropportunitiesforLondonshomegrownyoungsterstoshareinthecapitalssuccess.Since2005,UKgrowthhasaveragedover3percentayear,anditisLondonthathasdrivenmuchofthatsuccess.Itcontinuestobethemostpopulardestinationforgraduatesinanumberoffields,frominsideandoutsidetheUK,andaround800,000newjobshavebeencreatedinLondonsince2002.

    Theconspicuoussuccessofthefinancialsectorinthefirstdecadeofthecenturyhasbeenmaintained,withthreequartersofnewLondonjobssince2005havingbeencreatedinthissector.Newmediahasalsobecomeanestablishedspecialism,andLondonremainsaworldleaderinmusicandthearts.Inthisenvironmentofcreativity,highculturethrives,butformostinLondonitisstraightforwardconsumerismthatfuelsthecityseconomicandculturallife.Asthehighstreetcontinuestocompetewithinternetshopping,thebigLondonstoreshaveintroducedarangeofinteractivegames,activitiesandeventhemeparkstyleridestotaketheshoppingexperiencetoanotherlevel.

    ThehighdemandforcommercialpropertyinLondonhasbeenabigincentivetobusinessesenablinghomeworking,andmostlargeandmediumsizedcompanies,alongwithpublicbodies,havebeenabletoreducetheirofficespaceasaresult.Itisestimatedthat85percentofLondonsworkersnowspendatleastsomeoftheircontractedhoursofemploymentworkingbeyondtheoffice.CentralLondonnonethelessexertsapullcommerciallyandculturallythattheouterboroughsandsuburbsfinditdifficulttocompetewith.TheexcellenttransportlinksthatcarryfarflungLondonerstoworkeachdayalsoenablethemtoremainthereuntiltheearlyhours,whilsttheirownlocalbars,restaurantsandleisurecentresrarelyenjoytheirpatronage.Thusnewleisureindustriesthriveaboveallintheheartofthecity,andyoungpeopleinparticulartendtotravelintoStratford,thenewvibrant

    rthemoreoldfashion .artshubinCanningTowno edWestEndforagoodnightout

    Thereare,however,someinevitablesideeffectsofLondonsprosperity.Arisingnumberofyoungprofessionalsaresustainedbyahighoctanelifestyleofbingedrinkingandrecreationaldruguse(thelatterfuellingtheblackeconomy),andstressanddepressioncontinuetobethebiggestdrainonhealthspending,costingLondonanestimated2.5millionworkingdaysin2022.Nextgenerationpsychoactivesubstanceswhichstimulateneuralactivityandallowworkerswhousethemtoworkseveraldaysinarowarewidespreadandeventacitlycondonedbysomeofthebiggercorporations.

  • how thepoliticsoftheirowndormitorytowns.

    Theenvironmentalawarenessthatblossomedinthemidnoughtiesdidnotmaintainitstrajectoryinthedecadesthatfollowed,notleastbecauseofthetensionswithgrowthandprosperity,whichappeartoodifficulttoreconcileinthe

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 10

    CrimeislowbyhistoricLondonstandards,buthighprofileinstancesofviolentcrimeamongstthecitysyouthhintatthegangculturethatpersistsandthealienationofthosewhofeelthatthesuccessenjoyedbyothersispassingthemby.Therearesome,ofcourse,whobenefitlittlefromLondonsmaterialprosperity.Whilstemploymentlevelsarehigh,competitionforjobsinthemostlucrativesectorsisalsohigh,andalthoughmoreyoungpeoplearenowenteringfulltimeworkwithformalskills,someofLondonsyoungstersstillslipthroughthenet.

    Housing, transport and the enviAftersuchaslowstart,theannualhousebuildingtargetof31,090unitsbetween2007and2017alwaysseemedambitious,andfailedtobemetontime.Astrongsteerthecentreensuredthatthetargetvolumeswerefinallyreached(fouryearslate)buthigherthanforecastpopulationgrowthhasmeantthatthechallengetohousethisexpandingcitycontinues.Housingcostsremainhigh,andformanyyoungerpeople,thedreamofbuyingtheirownhomehasbeenalmostifnotentirelyabandoned,leadingtoastrongercultureofrenting,andhighleisurespendingtocompensate.Avibrantprivatesectoroffersfirstentrylevelhousingtomanynewarrivals,butwhereregulationsareinfringed,publicagenciesoftenseemtolackthe

    ronment

    capacitytointervene.

    NewhousingdevelopmentsinLondonhavedealtcreativelywiththeneedtoincreasedensities,andhavebeenpraisedfortheirhighaestheticdesignqualityandcontributiontotheurbanlandscape.Theircredentialsintermsofenvironmentalsustainabilityhave,however,beenlessimpressiveinthedrivetomeetvolumetargets.Somesmallscaleflagshipprojectswinplauditsfortheirinnovativeenergyproductionandusage,butthemajorityofhousingdevelopmentescapesthescrutinythatenvironmentalcampaignershadhopedfor.

    Thecongestionchargehasrisensignificantlyacrossthelastdecade,andhasbeenexpandedfurthertothewestandnorth,withaneasternextensionintheplanningstage.PublicandevenbusinessoppositiontothishasbeenminimalaspublictransportimprovesandfulfilstheessentialtaskofgettingLondonerstowork.Thankstothishugelyimprovedtransportsituation,LondonsworkforcehascontinuedtospreadoutintotherestoftheSouthEast,withsomecommutingdistancesreachinghundredsofmiles.Theemergenceofwhatamountstoaregionwidemegacitycreatesheadachesforplannerstryingtodefendthegreenbeltandcreatesustainablecommunities,andalsoproveschallengingfortraditionalgovernanceboundariestoaccommodate.HundredsofthousandsofLondonemployeesspendmostoftheirlivesinthecapitalyethavenodemocraticvoicein

    itisrunandlittleinterestin

  • livinglongerandbetterlives.

    Governmentmeasuresrelatingtofoodcontentandadvertisingweretightenedasaresultofcontinuingyouthobesity,whichhadreached12percentby2018.Sport,exerciseandnutritionstudieshaveseenrenewedprominenceinthecurriculum.Obesityamongstthecurrentgenerationofschoolchildrenisnowlowerthanitwasfiveyearsago,reflectingthesuccessofthesemeasures,butremainsabove10percent.Amongstoverthirties,theratesofobesityandrelatedillnessarecontinuingtorise.NineoutoftenadultmeninLondonarenowoverweight,halfofthemobese.

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 11

    shortterm.Theaffluentgreenconsumerisstillalucrativemarket,butcampaignerswarnthatLondonersarestickingtheirheadsinthesandandinthelongtermcannotbuytheirwayoutofclimatechange.Onthewhole,thepublicseemtohavelostfaithinthevalueofdoingtheirbitandarerelyingongovernmentstocomeupwithbig,longtermsolutionstoenvironmentalchallenges.

    Londonsgrowingpopulationisacceleratingtheneedfornewhousingaffordablehousinginparticularand,asapriorityforallboroughs,haspushedgreenissuesfurtherdowntheagenda.TheLondonAssembly,councilsandbusinessescontinuetosettargetsforenergyefficiency,carbonemissionsandimprovedrecycling,buttheyarenotambitious,andcapacityisnottheretodriverealimprovements.Atleastthankstomassivetransportinvestment(aswellastheprohibitivecongestioncharge)carownershipinLondonbecomeslessandlessattractive,andcontinuestofall.

    Public services and healthcare ThefailureofthepublicsectortokeeppacewithLondonsgrowthhasledtofarmoremarketdrivenprivateandthirdsectorprovisionandselfhelp.Newcommunitiesandincreasinglyconfidentreligiousgroupsaresettinguptheirownschools,hospitals,communityandvoluntaryservicestofillthegapleftbyshrinkingpublicprovision.LondonsRegionalAssemblyandtheofficeofthemayorhavebuiltahighprofile,withinLondon,theUKandinternationally,andlocalgovernmentisseenaslessandlessrelevanttomostpeopleslives.Thisonlyservestoentrenchvoterapathy,whichishigh.Londonboroughsareincreasinglylookingtovoxpopparticipationtofillthegapleftbyoldfashioneddemocraticengagement.

    Healthserviceshavefailedtokeeppacewithpopulationgrowth,andlargenumbersofyoungLondonersandnewarrivalsseemtohavedecidednottobotherwithconventionalhealthcareatall,turningtoalternativemedicineorprivateprovision.BootstheChemist,forinstance,offersarangeofservicesaimedatbusycommuters,manyofwhomarenotevenregisteredwithadoctor.ForthosedependentonsocialservicesandtheNHS,thereisagrowingcrisis,butspendingproblemsandpoliticalsquabblesmeanthattheissueisnotbeingtackled.

    TechnologicaladvancesinmedicinehaveimprovedthelivesofLondonerswithlongtermdebilitatingillnesses,andaneverhighernumberofterminallyillpeopleare

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 12

    Lifeexpectancyhascontinuedtoriseinlinewithpredictions,thoughifobesityamongstadultscannotbesuccessfullytackled,itthreatenstostartfalling.Alongwithdruguse,bingedrinking,stressanddepression,thisservestoremindpoliticiansthatawealthyLondonisnotnecessarilyahealthyLondon,andthateveninthegoodtimestherearesignificantchallengesforthecapitalsleaderstoovercome.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 13

    2. Hitting the Buffers: LondInthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbyincreasingoutmigrationbutsteadypopulationgrowthduetoahigherthanexpectedbirthrate,andaprolongedrecession.Thesetrendscombinewithotherstocreateaprevailingsocialclimateof

    on Falling Apart

    fear,suspicionandcompetitionbetweencommunities.

    Itis2023,andLondonisafracturedcity.Overtakenbyinternationalcompetitorsandunabletoshakeoffrecession,Londonnolongerhastheselfconfidenceandoptimismitoncehad.Afteradecadeoffairlyhighinmigrationattheturnofthecentury,movementtoLondonfromoverseashasslowedinmorerecentyearsasthecapitalbecomeslessandlessattractiveasadestinationforeconomicmigrants.Outmigration,conversely,hasincreasedamongstthemostskilledsectionsoftheworkforce.However,ahighbirthrateamongsttheyoungimmigrantcommunitiesthatarrivedinthenoughtiesandtheteensisplacingpressureonLondonspublicservices,theirspendingsqueezedbytheeconomiccrisis.

    Risingunemploymentandcompetitionforscarceresources(lengthyqueuesforbasicprovisionsarecommon)hasfosteredintercommunitytensions,leavingLondonafarmoresegregatedandsuspiciousplacethanitwasfifteenyearsago.Thepoorestpeopleliveincreasinglybeyondthemarginsofformalsociety:inhealthandhousingconditionsthatshameaonceglobalcity,andyouthcrimeandgangculturearerife.

    SharpsegregationisevidentbetweenthemoreestablishedcommunitiesofowneroccupiersinthesuburbsandaffluentpartsofinnerLondonontheonehand,andthemoremarginalboroughsontheother,whichseemtobegoingbackwardsasthehopeofregenerationandeconomicgrowthrecedes.Againstthisbackdrop,thesocioeconomicheterogeneitythatcametocharacterisesomanyneighbourhoodsinthegoodtimesisindeclineaspolarisationincreasesandthecityswealthierinhabitantsretreatbehindevermoreadvancedhomesecurity.Thoseglobalcitiesthathaveweatheredtherecessionbest,intheUS,ChinaandIndia,areattractingLondonsgraduates,andLondonisneitherthefinancialnorthecorporatecentreitncewas.o

    Chronology

    AllofthescenariosofferanimageofLondonin2023.Thefollowingaresomeofthekeypointsinthedevelopmentofthisparticulartrajectoryofthefuturewhathappened .betweennow(2008)andthen(2023)tobringthisscenariointobeing

    2010:Thedownturninthehousingmarketwhichbegantamelyin2008wasworsenedbythedeepeningworldrecession,resultinginaUKwidehousingmarketcrashthathitLondonparticularlyhard.

    2015:AnOlympicblipin2012broughtsomerespiteashousepricesbeganto

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 14

    stabiliseataround25percentbelowtheirformerlevels,buttheglobaleconomyremainedinflux.

    2016:AgovernmentreportseriouslyquestionedtheOlympiclegacyassitesandfacilitiesdueforconversionremainedmothballed,paralysedbytheeconomicdownturn.Inthesameyear,amajorinternationalreportsuggeststhatasotherglobalcitiesareshowingtheearlysignsofeconomicrecovery,Londonseemsunabletoturnthecorner.

    2022:WithLondonseconomystillinthedoldrums,competitionforresourcesinitspoorestcommunitiesishigh.Mythsaroundpreferentialtreatmentforethnicminoritygroupsinhousingallocationandpublicsectoremploymentschemesarerife,andarevivedBNPwinsitsfirstparliamentaryseat(inouterLondon)attheGeneralElection.

    Population, immigration and demographic change Londonspopulationhasgrownoverthelasttenyears,butlessthanwasanticipatedadecadeago.Thisisdueinparttofewermigrantscomingtothecity,butalsotohighlevelsofoutmigrationasmoreLondonerschoosetomoveouttootherpartsoftheUKor,inthecaseofthemosthighlyskilledandhighearners,tootherpartsoftheworld.OppositionpartiesaccusethegovernmentofpresidingoverLondonsworstbraindrainforfiftyyearsasskilledprofessionalslookforabetterqualityoflifeworkinginthefastdevelopingBRICcountries.ThesteadypopulationgrowththatnowexistsisdrivenprimarilybyahighbirthrateamongstLondonsyoungmigrantcommunities.Thecityspopulationisnowsaidtostandat8.8million,althoughacontinualflowofnewsstoriesexposingweaknessesinofficialdatameanthatfaithinstatisticsislow,andpressrumoursaboutanewtideofillegal

    tensions.immigrantsfantheflamesofcommunity

    Populationgrowthissteadyoverall,butdemographicchangesareprovingdifficulttocopewith.Theoriginalbabyboomersareintheirseventiesandneedincreasinglevelsofadultsocialcare,whilstanewbabyboomgenerationinLondon,fuelledbyhighBMEbirthrates,causesproblemsforschoolsandchildrensservices.Povertybecomesevermoreconcentratedinspecificneighbourhoodsasthebetteroffleavethosemostdepressedareasthatwerepreviouslyregenerating,resultingingreatersocialandethnicsegregation.

    Communit cLondonisamuchlesstolerantandintegratedcitythanitwasevenadecadeago.ThosemoredeprivedpartsofLondonwhichhadseemedtobemodelsofdiversitybackthenhavesincebecomeheavilydivided.Communitiescompetefortheattentionofunderfundedpublicagencies,andinthecontextofsuspicionandresentmentfromotherLondoners,ethnicandfaithcommunitieshavebecome

    y and ivil society

  • outstripthoseofotherEuropeancitiesandinparticularLondon.

    WhilstsomealternativecommunitiesofartistsandmusiciansmakethemostofLondonsdecliningfortunesandmoveintotheareasthatothersaremovingoutof,thecreativeindustriesmorebroadlyarenolongerasLondoncentredastheyonce

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 15

    increasinglyinwardlookingandselfreliant.Spendingcutshaveinanycaseleftpublicservicesunabletocopewiththedemandsplaceduponthem,andprojectstoimproveintegrationandcohesionareforcedtotakeabackseatatthetimewhentheyremostnecessary.Recentstudiesintocohesionhintataseverelackofcommonidentityorasharedsenseofbelongingbetweenneighbours.Whatmostdoshare,however,isapathytowardspoliticiansandthepoliticalsystem,reflectedinadeclininginterestinengagingwithcivilsocietyandthestateatanylevel.

    Crimerateshaverisen,andfearofcrime,fuelledbythemedia,soars.Thishasledtoasurgeinthesocalledgatedcommunity,withnewinteractiveprivatesecuritytechnologiesbecomingpopularwithresurgentNeighbourhoodWatchgroupsinleafierareaswherethereislesspopulationchurn.ResidentsclubtogetherforCCTVsurveillanceandprivatesecurity,andthroughinteractivemultimedia,allcanbekeptuptodatewithwhatsgoingonaroundtheminsomecasesencouragingaworryingvigilanteculturetoemerge.Inmoredeprivedareaswherecrimeisworst,faithinanoverstretchedpoliceforceisfallingandorganisedcrime,fedbyamyriadofyouthgangs,isontheincrease.

    Economy and skills Therecessionhasbeendamagingtocitiesacrossthecountry,butasthegeneratorofsomuchofthenationswealth,Londonhashadfurthesttofall.Thewealthgap,maskedinthedaysofplentybyaboomingconsumerculture,nowbreedsresentmentamongstthepoorestinsociety.AvastinformaleconomyhassprunguptofillthevoidinpartsofLondonandthereare,formanyteenagers,twocareersonoffer,andthelureofcashinhandishardtoresistforalargeproportion.

    Povertyandworklessnessaremostmarkedamongstcertainethnicgroups.TheemploymentrateamongstthoseofPakistaniandBangladeshiorigininLondonhasbarelyshiftedsincetheearlypartofthecentury,stagnantat48percentand37percentrespectively.TwodecadesagowhenchildpovertyinLondonstoodataround40percent,thegovernmenthadaimedtoeradicatetheproblemby2020.Childpovertyremainsareality,however,andpovertystillaffectsoverathirdofthecityschildren.InitiativestoraiseskillsamongstLondonsyoungpeoplehavehadlittlelastingimpact,theeconomicmeltdownabarriertoinvestmentbyindustryand

    ofyoungpeoplethemselves.adisincentivetoaspirationonthepart

    ThebraindrainmeansthatLondonishaemorrhagingskillstoothercitiesisfindingithardtoattracttheoverseastalentitoncedid,oreventokeephomegrowngraduates.TheflowofEasternEuropeanmigrantsthatwassoprominenttwentyyearsagohasreducedtoatrickleasopportunitiesintheirhomecountriesstartto

  • Londonsregionalgovern ce.

    Theprolongedrecessionhinderedalreadyambitioushousingtargets,andlocalandregionalgovernmenthavebeentoobusydealingwiththecitysotherproblemstoprovidesufficientsteer.Socialpolarisationhasmeantthereemergenceofproblemestates,whichbecomevirtualnogoareasforthebetteroffandwhichconcentratesocialproblemsinsmallareas,puttingincreasingpressureonstrained

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 16

    were.WithintheUK,artsandmediacompaniesareincreasingtheirprominenceinplaceslikeManchesterandLeeds,andisinfinanceandotherfields,thehighestpaidaredrawntoresurgentworldcitiessuchasNewYork.StatesupportfortheartshasbarelysurvivedinLondon,originallyreplacedbyawillingprivatesectorwhichisnowtighteningitsbeltandwithdrawingsponsorship.

    Homeworkingwasalreadypopularbeforetherecession,andnowascompaniestrydesperatelytocutoverheadsitisencouragedasneverbefore.Peoplearenowmuchmoreaccustomedwithvirtualchatintheireverydaylives,andforawholegenerationoftwentysomethingsbroughtupwithonlinenetworkingsitessincechildhood,thisformsamajorpartoftheirleisuretime.Addedtothefactthatdigitalhomeentertainmentsareevermoreadvanced,therelativeattractionsofbars,clubsandrestaurantsinthistimeofcontinuingeconomicstagnationarelow.Horrorstoriesaboutcrimeonpublictransportatnightalsodetersomefromgoingoutaltogether.

    Housing, transpoTherecessionhashaltedmajorpublictransportinvestmentprogrammessuchasCrossrail(stillyettooperate)andthesystemhasbeencreakingattheseamsforadecade.ThisfailuretooverhaulthetransportnetworkisseenaskeytoLondonsinabilitytogetbackonitsfeetandcatchupwiththoseotherworldcities,whichweremuchnimblerintheirrecoveryfromrecession.SafetyconcernsandstaffingproblemshaveevenresultedinperiodsofsuspensionforsomeUndergroundlines.Thecongestionchargehasbeenrelaxedasatemporarymeasure,butfewtakeadvantageofthis,theinstabilityintheMiddleEasthavingsentfuelpricesrocketing.LackofinvestmentinnewtechnologiesandalternativeenergiesmeansthatLondonsmissesitsCO2milestonetargets,andthe60percentreductionby2050

    hecenturynowlooksimpossiblyoutofreach.

    rt and the environment

    thatwassetattheturnoft

    Economicuncertaintyhasstuntedhopesofrevivalinthecityshousingmarket,thestagnationandsubsequentfallinhousepricesleavesthousandsofLondonhomeownersinnegativeequity.LondonremainsthemostexpensivecityintheUK,thoughthedifferentialwithotherleadingUKcitiesisnarrowing.FallinglandvaluesmeanthatthedreamsofregenerationintheeastofLondonaftertheOlympicsneverbecameareality,severelydamagingfaithinLondonsabilitytomakegoodonbigstrategicprojectsataregionallevel.OneLondonmayorafteranotherhasblamedtheshortsightednessofboroughs,whointurnaccuse

    orsofconfusedprioritiesandsupremearrogan

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 17

    localservices.Ironically,ashousinginLondonbecomesmoreaccessibleforfirsttimebuyers,manyarenowreluctant,giventheuncertaintyofthecitysfuture,tocommitsuchalargescaleinvestment.Astheywaittoseewhatwillhappen,longtermrentingonthecontinentalmodelisnowthenormformostyoungprofessionals.ThisleadstoacontinuingfreezeintheowneroccupationmarketandslowsdowntheLondonseconomicrecovery.

    Thehousingmarketcrashhasmadeiteasierforsociallandlordstobuildandbuyalreadybuiltschemesfromdevelopers.Itwashopedthattheriseofregisteredsociallandlordswouldunderminetheworstelementsoftheprivaterentedsector,butunscrupulouslandlordscontinuetobuyuponeandtwobedroomschemesintendedforyoungprofessionalsandoverfillthemwithmigrantworkers(andevenfamilies).Longerstandingresidentscomplainaboutrubbishandtheincreasinglyunkemptenvironment,exasperatingcommunitytensionsandlackoffaithincouncilstocope.

    ThedirectimpactofclimatechangeonUKweatherhashithertobeenminimal,butinthelastdecadetherehavebeendevastatingfloods,droughtsandfamineinpartsofAfrica,AsiaandSouthAmerica.WorldrecessionhasmadetheWestslowtoprovidefinancialaid,andeconomicandpoliticaltensionsinthosemosteffectedregionshaveledtoasignificantriseinmigrationtoEurope.LondonseconomicandsocialproblemsaremakingotherEuropeancitiescomparativelymoreattractivetothesemigrants,andhardenedimmigrationlawsintheUKhavehelpedtostemtheflow,butpressureonbordercontrolisgrowingandstatisticsonlevelsofillegalimmigrationarehotlycontested,playingintothehandsofpoliticalextremism.

    PubThehealthsysteminLondonisbucklingundertheburdenofapopulationtopheavywithyoungchildrenandtheelderly,yetfindsitsfundingincreasinglysqueezed.Publichealthisworsening,particularlyamongstimmigrantcommunitieswhoarebecomingincreasinglyinwardlookingandselfreliantinthefaceofrisingintolerance.Amidtheovercrowdedapartmentblocksthathavebecomeghettos,andwherefacilitiessuchaswaterandheatingarefrequentlyoutof

    lic services and healthcare

    order,diseaseandpoorhealthgounchecked.

    NewhometechnologieshavemadeitmucheasierforLondonerstointeractwithserviceprovidersandhaveaidedthepersonalisationofpublicservicedelivery.Asauthoritiesrelyonthesenewformsofengagementandservicedeliverymoreandmore,however,Londonsgrowingunderclasswhoare,literally,disconnectedareincreasinglyleftoutoftheengagementloop.Moreover,thegeneralapathythatexistsaroundpoliticalinstitutionshasmeantthateventhosewithgoodremoteaccesstopublicservicesareincreasinglyoptingtotuneoutandswitchoffwhenitcomestomakingthemselvesheard.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 18

    3. Steady Ahead: Growing Outwards, Growing Greener InthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbypopulationgrowthinthemiddlebandofcurrentpredictions,aprevailingsocialattitudeoftolerantcoexistenceandmediumeconomicgrowth(i.e.withgrowthinoutputandemploymentinlinewithcurrentlongtermpredictions).

    Itis2023andLondonisacityofvillages.Socially,Londonersarehappylivingalongsideoneanother,andwilljoinforcesatlocalforasuchascommunityassetplanningmeetings,butgenuinecohesivenessamongstpeoplefromdifferentbackgroundsisdistinctlylacking.Thelastfifteenyearshaveseenashiftofpeople,moneyandpowerfromthecentretothesuburbs,andfromthereonwardsdowntolocalwardsandcommunities.ThisispartlyduetopublictransportLondonismoreconnectedthanitusedtobe,makingiteasiertolivefurtherawayfromthecentre.ItisalsobecauseofthehungWestminsterparliamentthatdevolvedpowertolocalcouncils,partiallybypassingtheregionaltier.Localcouncilshave,byandlarge,respondedtoaupwardtrendincommunityactivismbydevolvingcontrolfordecisionmakingandspendtowards.Technologyhasplayedaparttoo,withastepchangeinaffordabilityandeffectivenessandthewidespreadprovisionofsharedsuburbanofficespacesabettingadramaticincreaseinfullhomeworking.

    Sustainabilityandtheenvironmenthavecontinuedtheirsteadyriseupthepoliticalandpersonalagendas.Thecrucialdifferenceisthatthepersoninthestreetseemsmorewillingtochangehisorherbehaviourtomitigatethemarchofclimatechange.Youcanseebicycleracksinalmosteverybackgardennow,aspeopletakeadvantageofLondonsgreatlyexpandedcyclenetwork.Centrally,housingstandardshavebecomefarstricterintermsofsustainability;thispleasedthepublicinitially,althoughthiscouldchangewiththeloominghousingshortage.Financially,Londonhasmaintaineditsleadingpositioninworldcities,althoughpublicspendingisbeginningtofall.Theflipsideofdoubledevolutionissomethingofapatchwork:manycommentatorspointtoapostcodelotteryofserviceprovision,withyourchancesofgettinggoodserviceshighlycontingentuponwhereyoulive.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 19

    Chronology AllofthescenariosofferanimageofLondonin2023.Thefollowingaresomeofthekeypointsinthedevelopmentofthisparticulartrajectoryofthefuturewhathappenedbetweennow(2008)andthen(2023)tobringthisscenariointobeing.

    2010:LondonsbusnetworkundergoesamuchneededexpansionintherunuptotheOlympics,andthecrossrivertram(CamdenTowntoBrixtonandPeckham)isintroduced.

    2013:TheLondonassemblyrespondstointernationalscientificwarningsaboutclimatechange(mainlycomingfromtheUNsnewEnvironmentOffice),andbeginstoenforcestrictemissionstargetsontoLondonbusinesses.

    2018:thenationalelectoratereturnsahungparliamentforthesecondtimeinarow,afterthepreviouscoalitiongovernmentisaccusedoffiscalirresponsibility.Londoncouncilsbenefitasyetfurtherpowersaredevolved,andpublicspendingbeginstofallasthenewadministrationseekstoreassure.

    2021:theMayorsannualreportshowsthatinmigrationtoLondonhascontinuedtorisesteadily(from31,000in1996,100,000in1999and200,000in2021),particularlyaspartsoftheIndiansubcontinentandelsewherearebadlyhitbytheimpactofclimatechange.Londonspopulationnowstandsat8.3million.

    Population, immigration and demographic change TheshapeofLondonhaschanged.Londonspopulationhasgrownatasteadyrate,nowstandingat8.3million,inthemiddleoflatetwentiethcenturypredictions.Immigrationhasalsorisensteadily(apartfromtherushofIndianimmigrantsfleeingthesubcontinentsfloods),sincestandardsandemploymentprospectsinEastEuropehaverisen,persuadingitsnationalstostayhome.Rather,itisthespreadofpeopleinLondonthathaschanged:thecreepingsuccessofthesuburbs,spurredbythedevolutionofspendingpowersandtargetsettingtolocalauthoritiesandthenceontolocalcommunities,hasseenthemodelofyoungfamiliesleaving

    onchallenged.Lond

    TheflightofthirtysomethingstothesuburbsishavingthebyeffectofhighlightingtheagepolarisationincentralLondon.InnerLondonisgettingyoungerandyounger,with86percentofLondonersundertheageof64.Thisisgoodnewsforyoungpeoplezones1and2aremorevibrantthaneverandthemusicsceneisboomingbutbadnewsforoldercitizens,whoalienatedfrominnerLondonsfastpaced,predominantlysingle,vibe.Olderpeoplearequicklyjoiningtheyoungfamiliesinthesuburbs.

    Therehasalsobeenacontinuingnetnorthwardflow,asLondonerslooktotakeadvantageoftheirhigherthanaveragehousepricesandexchangelifeinthesouth

  • Environment, housing and transport TransporthasbeenoneofLondonssuccessesinthelastdecadeCrossrailwascompletedin2016(althoughthreeyearsbehindtarget)andalongsidethis,thecycle

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 20

    forlifeinManchesterorLeeds.In2021,forexample,38,000peopleleftLondonforK.oneofthenorthernregionsoftheU

    Thelastdecadehasseenadefiniteslowingofthepopulationchurnthatwassuchamarkedfeatureofthecapitalaroundtheturnofthecentury.Themutuallyreinforcingtrendsofpeoplemovingtothesuburbsandbusinessesmovingoutofthecentre,whencombinedwithimportantlegislativechangessuchasgreatercontrolforboroughsoversettinglocaltaxlevels,meanthatwhenindividualsandfamiliesfindaboroughthatsuitsthem,theyoftenstayforlongerthantheywouldhavedonebefore.

    Economy and skills Theeconomyhasbeenupanddownoverthelastfifteenyears.TherecessioninthelatenoughtieshadanegativeimpactonthewholeoftheUK,withspendingreignedin,andbusinessgettingjittery.However,theOlympicsplayedabigpartinturningLondonseconomyaround,withtheincreaseindemandforskilledandunskilledlabourpullingtheeconomyoutofrecession,thentheriseintourismandincreasedinvestmentinEastLondon.OuterEastLondondevelopedaaninternationalreputationasoneofthemostexcitingurbanspotsintheworld,andLondoncontinuedtopullintopgraduatesandbusinesses.Therehavebeenafewblipssincethen,buttheeconomyhasaveraged12percentgrowth.

    Currently,LondonseconomycontinuestooutperformtheUKs,despitethefallinpublicspending.Inparticular,thepercentageincreaseinemploymentinouterLondonhasrisensharplyby8percent,asbusinessesbeginsestablishingsecondaryofficesintheouterboroughs,respondingtheyoungfamiliesandprofessionalsbasingthemselvesthere.Improvementsinbroadbandspeedandcoverage,aswellastheintroductionofneighbourhoodwifi,hasledtoalargeincreaseinthenumberofpeopleworkingfromhomemostofficeworkerswork

    ftenfromthesfromhomeatleastonceaweeknow,andthisifo uburbs.

    Thecommunicationsindustrysawtheadventofhomeworkingasagreatbusinessopportunity,andcommunicationstechnologieshavebeguntocentrearoundhomeworking,includingabilitiesformobilevirtualconferencingviapersonalembeddeddevices(orPEDs),thesuccessortoPDAs.

    Publicspendingiscurrentlyacauseforconcernthough,withdecreasingpublicsectorspendingcausingproblemsinsocialinitiativesandhousingthreemajorcommunitycohesioninitiativesineasternboroughswerehaltedin2018.Intheyearsfollowingthistherehasbeenanotableincreaseinhatecrimeinthisarea,whichinturnisaffectingthehousingmarketsinthearea.

  • Lifestyles, social cohesion and democratic renewal Socially,Londoncontinuestobedisconnectedasacityasawhole,althoughboroughboundidentityhasincreased.AlthoughthereisevidentlyadividebetweentheyoungerandoldercitizensinLondon,peoplehaveunitedaroundsuburban

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 21

    networkhasbeenhugelyexpanded,withroughly10percentofpeoplenowcyclingtotheoffice(comparedtoonly3percentin2007).Partly,thetransportnetworkshaveimprovedbecauseofthehighcostoffuel,whichmakesprivatecommutes

    nsive.Butonecannotignoretheinfluenceo expe ftheenvironmentalagenda.

    Theimportanceoftheenvironmentalagendahassurgedaheadsincethenoughties,andLondonhasbecomeaworldleaderinenvironmentaladaptation,encouragedbyasteerfromcentralgovernment.Summersandwintershavegottenwarmer,butextremeweatherhasnotbeencommon,withtemperaturesrisinginthesummerby2degreesonaverage.Intermsoftransport,environmentalismhasexpresseditselfthroughgreaterpenalties(thecongestionchargecurrentlystandsat30),andheavyinvestmentincycleandbusnetworks.Theabundanceofalternative,andmoreimportantlyreliable,publictransportopportunities,hasmadethecongestionchargeeasiertobear.Eventhe4x4drivingyoungfamilieshaveacquiesced,sincetheyarespendingmoretimeintheirlocalboroughandtendnottodrivesomuch.

    EnvironmentalstandardsforhousingarestrictlyenforcedbytheMayorsOfficeofEnvironmentalRegulation:thisisoneofthefewareaswhereLondoncouncilsarewillingtocedecontrol.Whilstthesestandardshavebeenstrictlyenforcedfornewbuildprojects,therehasbeenmuchpatchierprogressonretrofittingexistingstock(stillthevastmajorityofthetotal).InstallationofCombinedHeatandPowerunitsandphotovoltaicshasbeenstronglyencouragedforexistinghousingstock,butthecostofdoingsohasmeantthatonlywherecommunitiescancometogethertoachievethenecessaryeconomiesofscaleisactionpossible.

    Thestrictenvironmentalstandardshavemadebuildingmoreexpensive:so,newbuildsareusuallyloworzerocarbon,buttherearelessofthem,andthehousingtargetshavebeenmissedbyamile.Theresultingshortageinsocialhousingiscausingpoliticaltensionbetweencampaignersonclimatechangeandsocialwelfare.TheThamesGatewayhasbeenhitparticularlyhardbystricterenvironmental

    ds,asthefloodrisksarestandar deemedveryhigh.

    Theshortageofsocialhousingcausesaparticularproblemforasylumseekersandrefugees,whodependonaffordablehousing.Problemsarealsobeingexperiencedbyolderpeople,astheirhomesbecomeinappropriate,andwhoarediscoveringthatitisveryexpensivetomeettherequirementsforenvironmentaladaptationstotheirhomes.ThisisencouragingtheflightofolderpeoplefromcentralLondon,withmanybeingunwillingtopayhighercounciltaxthantheiryoungercounterpartswhohavemadethenecessaryenvironmentaladaptations.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 22

    communitiesintheouterboroughs,tomakethemthefocusoftheirdaytodaylives.OuterLondonsuburbsareattractingyoungfamiliesingreaternumbers,andahomeworkingculture,evolvingoutoftechnologicalprogress,meanspeoplearespendingmoretimeintheirlocality.Socialopportunitiessuchasbars,clubsandmusicvenuesareincreasedinouterLondon,andcertainareashaveavibrancytocountercentralLondon(albeitaslightlyolderdemographicenjoyingthis).AlthoughtheWestEndisstillthefocusofmanynightsout,artandmusicsceneshavespreadfurther,withWalthamstowbeingjustoneexampleofanouterLondonculturalcentre.Thishasbeenaidedby,insomecases,anewapproachtotowncentreplanning,focusingonmixedusedevelopmentsandasmuchonopportunitiesforculturalexchangeasretailtherapy.

    Thedevolutionofspendingpowershasbeenthemajorstimulusforstrongerboroughslocalcouncilshavefarmorecontroloverthetypeofareatheydevelop.Insomeboroughsthishascausedamoveawayfromdevelopingcommercialproperties,insteadfocusingondevelopingcommunitytowncentresforthenewfamiliesmovingtoouterLondon.Heightenedboroughcontroldoeshaveitsdownsidesthough,witharecentGuardianreportarguingthatLondonersaresubjecttotheultimatepostcodelottery:inoneboroughyoumightfindyoupaylowcounciltax,haveasustainablehomeandthechoiceoffiveschools;inanother,youpayhighcounciltaxforunconvertedstockandhavelimitedchoiceinpublicservices.

    Thetrendofcontentmentbutdisconnectionhascontinued,withpeoplestilllikelytonavigatetowardsimilarsocialgroups.Thestrongboroughidentityhasstartedtochallengethis,butnottoanygreateffect.Infact,therearecurrentlyconcernsthatcommunitieswillbecomelesscohesive,ortolerant,inthefaceoffallingpublicspending.Thenewcentraladministrationisseekingtoreassurethepublicofitsfinancialcredentials,anddoesnotwanttobeseenfritteringmoneyaway.Thefirstcutshavebeeninintegrationinitiatives.Crimeratesarerisingslightly(230crimesper1000ofLondonspopulation,comparedto217per1000twentyyearsago)therehasbeenanincreaseinknifeandgangrelatedcrimeanaverageof8incidentsper1000people.Mostofthiscrimefocusesaroundthepoorercentralboroughs:thelosersinthenewpostcodelottery.Theaffordablehousingshortagecouldfuelthiskindofdiscontent.

    SustainabilityremainsanimportantlifestylechoiceincontemporaryLondonwhetheritscycling,solarpanelsoranallotment,everyonetendstoplayapartinthemovetowardsamoresustainablesociety.Bikeracksareacommonsightonthebackofablackcab,asdriverspickupcyclistswhohavehadonetoomanypintstocyclehome.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 23

    Public services and healthcare Publicsectorspendinghasfalleninabsolutetermsandthereisaresultantincreaseintheuseofprivatehealthcareamongsttheaffluent.Butformanyhealthandsocialservicesarefailingtokeepupwithgrowingneeds.Inarecentsurvey,only55percentofLondonersaged16+reportedthemselvestobeingoodhealth.Thisiscomparedto61percenttwentyyearsago.ThereisconcernthatthepanLondonnatureofthehealthagendaisbeingneglectedintheincreasinglyboroughfocusedpoliticalclimate.

    CentralactiononsmokinghasbeeneffectivethenumbersofsmokersinLondonisatitslowestfordecades,asanentiregenerationofteenagershavegrownupduringthepublicsmokingban.Only5percentofLondonersconsiderthemselvesaregularsmoker.However,thisonlyservestoexacerbateconcernsthatthelackofastrongpanLondonhealthplanwillhaveseriousaffectsoncitizenschoices.Indeed,thisisalreadybeingprovedtrue:obesityratesarerising(8percentofallLondondeathswereobesityrelated,including900fromheartattacks).

    RatesofcancerandHIVarebothdown,afterdecadesofawarenessraisingschemesandadvice,aswellasimprovementsinavailabletreatment(especiallyforpeoplewithcancer).Thereareconcernsthataspublicsectorspendingfalls,theavailabilityofthemosteffective(andmostexpensive)cancerdrugswilldecreaseinsomeboroughs.Thisaddingtotheconcernsovertheemergingpostcodelottery.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 24

    4. Knocked Off Course: ShoInthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbypopulationgrowthinthemiddlebandofcurrentpredictions,aprevailingsocialattitudeofsocialcohesion,understandingandstrongcommunitytiesandmediumeconomicgrowth(i.e.

    ons).

    cks to the System

    withgrowthinoutputandemploymentinlinewithcurrentlongtermpredicti

    Its2023andLondonisrecoveringfromanumberofmajordisastersovertheprecedingthreeyears,includingthewidespreadfloodingandinfrastructurefailuredescribedhere.Perhapssurprisingly,Londonisexperiencingoneofthemostcohesiveperiodsithaseverknown,astheshocksandupheavalsandthereconstructionthathasfollowedfosteredcommunityspiritandasenseofcommonpurpose.Thecapitalscitizensaremakinguseoftechnologicalinnovationsinengagement,toensuretheyhavethebestchanceofgettingtheirviewsheard.Financially,Londonhasavoidedtherecessionthattheproblemshavecaused,thankstothesurgeindemandforunskilledlabour.Thishasalsohelpedimmigrationrates,particularlyfromnewaccessionstates,remainconstant.Londonsinfrastructureisundergoingaperiodofchange,astheundergroundandsewersystemarerebuiltafterflooding,andpropertiesgothroughthemajorsustainabilityadaptationsthatclimatechangenecessitates.

    Asalways,Londonalsohasitsproblems:illegalimmigrants,refugees,addictsandpeoplewithmentalhealthproblemshavebeenhithardestbythelastthreeyears,andarestillstrugglingtorecover,withmanycontinuingtoinhabittheirruinedproperties.Theboroughsthathavefounditmostdifficulttorecoveraretheheartoftheinformaleconomy,withdrugsbeingtradedfreelyawayfromtheeyesofmainstreamsociety.Thoselivinginthisareaalsocontinuetofaceseverepublicealthrisks,withTBratesrising.h

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 25

    Chronology AllofthescenariosofferanimageofLondonin2023.Thefollowingaresomeofthekeypointsinthedevelopmentofthisparticulartrajectoryofthefuturewhathappened ntobeing.betweennow(2008)andthen(2023)tobringthisscenarioi

    2011:LondonexperiencesrecordnumbersoftouristsasincreasinginternationalattentionresultingfromtheOlympicscombineswithcontinuinghotsummersandmildwinterstodrawpeopletothecapital.Climatescientistsdominatetheheadlineswithwarningsaboutwhereclimatechangeunmitigatedcouldlead,butthepopulationistoobusygettingatantotakenotice.

    2015:Internationalreportsofunusualweatherpatternsincrease,astheUSAexperiencesthreedevastatinghurricanesinasingleyear,andSouthEastAsiaisrockedbyamediumsizedearthquake.

    2020:Themildwinterscometoanabruptend:seriousandsustainedrainfallcausesayearofdamagingfloodsinLondon,puttinganumberofundergroundlinesoutofactionandmakingthesewersystemaseverepublichealthrisk.Theworldwatches,toseeifoneoftheglobesleadingcitieswilleverbethesame.

    Thesustainedfloodingin2020hasbeenjustoneofanumberofdisasterstostrikethecapitalinthepastthreeyears.IntheshorttermtherewasasignificantimpactonLondonseconomy,ashomes,jobsandbusinesseswerebadlyhitandthefailureoftheundergroundaffectedproductivity.Thedocklandsarea,forsolongtheengineofLondonsinternationalsuccess,wasputoutofcommissionfortwowholeyearsastransportlinksweredamaged.AcrossLondonextraordinarycounciltaxlevywasimposed,tocoveraportionoftherepairbill,andaperiodoftightlycircumscribedpublicsectorspendingprioritisationwasusheredin.

    Oneofthemostdevastatingeffectshasbeenthenumberofpeoplewhodefaultedontheirmortgages(theofficialfigureis15,000althoughtheactualnumberisthoughttobefarhigher;themajorityofdefaultersownedhomesintheregionaffectedbyfloods)andloanstiedtothevalueoftheirproperties.Thiswasworsenedasinsurancecompaniesrevealedtheywouldnotbewillingtoinsureanyhousesthatwererebuiltonthefloodarea,unlessveryexpensivedefencesystemswere

    oared.introduced.Housepricesinrelativelyfloodproofareashaveconsequentlys

    Thedestructionofhousingisalsobeingseenasanopportunitythough,withauthoritiespledgingnottomakethesamemistakestwice.InlinewithnewandstrictenvironmentalhousingtargetsimposedbytheLondonassembly,andcentralsubsidies,thehousingbuiltoutoftheruinsisamodelforsustainabledevelopment,includingbioclimaticdesign,CHPandphotovoltaics.Theprivatehousingsectorhasrisentothechallenge,keentomakeuseofthesubsidiesthegovernmentoffered,andhavehadtheirapprenticestraininsustainabletechniques.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 26

    Thedamagetohousinghas,paradoxically,providedaneconomicopportunity:namely,arouteoutofthelocalisedrecession:Londonseconomicrecoverybeganasskilledandunskilledlabourwasrequiredinvastquantitiestodeliveressentialrepairsandrebuilding.LondonissteadilyreestablishingitselfasafinancialcentreandispilotingenvironmentalplanningschemesthatshouldseeLondontakeonChinaastheworldsmostinnovativesustainabledeveloper.EngineeringgraduatesareflockingtoLondonfromallovertheworld.

    Thepopulationhasgrownandagedaspredicted,withtheonlysurprisebeingtheabruptendtoimmigrationduringthetoughesttimes,andthejustasabruptinfluxonceskilledandunskilledworkerswereneededintherebuildingprocess.Climatechange(summernighttemperatureshaverisenbyahuge7degrees)hasseenmore

    terclimates.EUnationalschoosetostayinLondon,ratherthanreturnhometohot

    Tothesurpriseofmany,Londonisgoingthroughaperiodofrelativesocialcohesion:allotments,sportsclubs,communityactivism,allplayapartinthelivesofindividuals.Rehousingprogrammesalsoforcedpeoplefromdifferentbackgroundstoliveclosely,encouragingintegrationandunderstandingamongstdifferentsocialgroups.Peoplearealsoworkingfromhomemuchmore,sincetheadventofHiPer(HighPerformance)hubtechnology,andclosureoftheunderground,sotendtospendmoretimeinlocalcafesandspaces,meetingpeoplearoundthem.Thosewhohavetotravelintoworkoftendotoaspartofacommunitycarclub,althoughdrivingisonthedecline:11percentnowwalkorcycletowork.ThestreetsaremorepleasantplacestospendtimesincecarusehasdecreasedparticularlysincethepollutionlevelsinLondonnowaverage3justinsidethegoodqualityrating,

    haninrathert themoderateratingofadecadeago.

    Whilstcrimehasfallenoverallandcohesionincreased,criminalactivityhasbecomemoreconcentratedintheboroughsthathavefacedthemostuphillstruggleinreestablishingthemselvesfollowingthedarkdaysofthepastthreeyears.Theseareasarehometothemostdeprivedpocketsofsociety(illegalimmigrants,refugees,addicts).Slumsaregrowinginabandonedhousing,andinthisareathecrimerateisanastonishing270crimesper1000ofthepopulation.Gangsoperatefreelyhere,andtheinformaleconomythrives.ThefloodinghadmanynegativeconsequencesforLondonshealth.Theincidenceofwaterbornediseasesroserapidly,asworkersstruggledtosanitiseconditionsinthefloodedboroughs,andtherearestillconcernsaboutconditionssuchasTBspreadingamongstthedeprivedcommunitiesstilllivinginruinedhousing.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 27

    5. Out of Control: Divided CLondoninthisscenarioischaracterisedbypopulationgrowthinthemiddlebandofcurrentpredictions,aprevailingsocialattitudeofsegregation,fearandsuspicionandmediumeconomicgrowth(i.e.withgrowthinoutputand

    ity

    employmentinlinewithcurrentlongtermpredictions).

    In2023,Londonisacityofdivisions.Thecityenjoyedaperiodofsteadyeconomicandpopulationgrowthinthe201019period,continuingasoneoftheworldsfinancialhubs,recoveringfromaperiodofsustainedglobaleconomicinstability.Theemploymentmarketremainedsteady,withunemploymentinLondonfallingslightlyduringtheOlympics,asmanyofEastLondonslongtermunemployedfoundtemporaryandlongertermwork.NotallstayedonaftertheGames,butEastLondonisstillbenefitingfromitsregeneration,andparticularlyfromtheimprovedpublictransportlinks.

    DuringtheyearafterTurkeysaccessiontotheEU(2020),immigrationratesincreasedasprofessionals,skilled,andsmallernumbersofunskilled,workerscametoLondon.InDecember2021therewasaterroristattackinSanFrancisco.Theinternationalsituationquicklybecameunstable,intheformofrenewedhostilitytoMuslimcommunities.Londonwasnodifferent,andthefracturesinitsapparentlycohesivemulticulturalsocietybegantoshow.In2023,thereisseriousethnicandreligioussegregationinLondon,withaffluentwhitecommunitieslivingapart,ometimeingatedareas,fromtheirneighbours.s

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 28

    Chronology AllofthescenariosofferanimageofLondonin2023.Thefollowingaresomeofthekeypointsinthedevelopmentofthisparticulartrajectoryofthefuturewhathappenedbetweennow(2008)andthen(2023)tobringthisscenariointobeing.

    2012:theOlympicsbegin,andthewholeofLondonisonahigh.Unemploymentisdown,EastLondonislookingthebestithasfordecades,communityrelationsarestable,andthecityisatthecentreofworldmediaattention.

    2020:TurkeyaccedestotheEU,amidstcontroversy.Thetabloidpressbeginscaremongering,althoughthefirstwaveofimmigrantworkersarereceivedpeacefully,anditseemsthatLondonhasavoidedanycompromiseofcommunityrelations.

    2021:AterroristattackinSanFranciscoshockstheworld,andjeopardisestherecentlypeacefulrelationsbetweenUS/UKandtheMiddleEast.TensionsbetweenMuslimandnonMuslimcitizensinLondonreachboilingpoint,andhighlightthefracturesbetweenLondonscommunities,includingtheincreasingdisenchantedyouth.

    SpatialsegregationisthemostnoticeableelementofLondonsociety.SouthLondon,onceoneofLondonsmulticulturalhopes,isnowsharplydividedbetweenthewhiteandtheblackareas,theyoungandtheoldareas.Disparatelivingisevenmoreapparentwhenyoureachzones4and5thisareaisamixtureofaffluentgatedcommunitiesanddeprivedLondonerstryingtofindthecheapestrenttheycan(currentlyabout450p/meveninzones4and5).Thedividebetweentheyoungandoldisalmostasseriousastheemergingracialbarrierstointegration.Londonisayoungcitywithinanageingcountry(85percentofLondonisunder65).Althoughtotheirfrustrationandanger,youngpeoplearebeingpricedoutofLondon,andforcedtomovebackinwithparentsorneverleaveinthefirstplacetosavemoney.

    Crimeisrisingamongstdisenfranchised,poorandangrycommunitiesparticularlyyouths(220crimesper1000ofthepopulation).Racehatecrimeisalsoincreasing,withanumberofhighprofileracialattacksonLondonsMuslimsmakingtheheadlinesaftertheterroristattackinSanFrancisco.Asyoudwellknowfromthetabloidpress,immigrationratestoLondonhaverisenslightlyinthelastfewyears,particularlyfromTurkeyasylumseekerstatisticsshowthattherewereover20,000applicationsfromTurkishasylumseekersin2022,upfromlessthanathousandin2006.Thishasincreasedsegregationpartlybecauseoftheclimateofhostilityandfear,strongersincetheSanFranterroristattack,andpartlybecauseTurkishworkerstendtocrowdintocheapmultipleoccupancyaccommodation.

  • specialistfaithschools.

    Attitudestosustainabilityarealsomixed,andatoddswitheachother.Inthefirstdecadeofthecentury,climatechangewashighonthepublicandthepolicyagenda.Nowithasallbutbeenforgottenbythemainstream.Theworsteffectsofclimatechangeareyettobefelt,althoughnoonecanhelpbutnoticehowmildwintershavebeenrecently.Somegroupsarestronglyenvironmentalist,withecocommunes

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 29

    Thecultureoffearthatisemergingfrompoorracialandgenerationalintegration,alongsiderisingcrimeandyouthdiscontent,hasseenanalreadysteadyincreaseinuseofsurveillancetechnologygothroughtheroof,withadvancedalarmsystems,CCTVandevenpersonalirisrecognitionprogrammeswidelyusedamongstWestLondonsaffluentcitizens.65percentofLondonhomeownersadmittedtohavingthreeormoreformsofsecurityfortheirhome,inarecentLondonpoll.ThehousingsituationinLondonisamixtureofextremes.Everythingfromslumstogatedcommunitiescanbefoundwithinthecity.Ontopofthishousingstandardsarefallingtomakebuildingcheaper.Localauthorities,desperatetocounteracttheangerofyoungpeopleattheirexclusionfromhousing,arepullingoutallthestops(andstandards,particularlyenvironmentalones)toexpandthesocialhousingstock.Anincreaseincaruse(duetoalackofsufficientinvestmentinpublictransport)hasalsoangeredanemerginghardcoreactivistmovementinLondonsyouth.TheactivistbranchofLondonsyouthhavebegunawellreporteddirectactioncampaignagainsttheplaneswhichpeoplecontinuetousefortheirholidays,andthecarstheycontinuetodrivethroughLondon.

    Londonseconomyisdefinedbythepolarisedemploymentfigures.Formostyounggraduates,thingsarecontinuingasalwaysoutofuniversityandintohighperformingLondonbasedfirms.However,thereisaworryingtrendofnonparticipationinemploymentemerginginMuslimcommunitiesperhapsdrivenbyfearofprejudice,Muslimworkersarebeginningtooptoutandbecomeincreasinglyselfreliant.Thisisevenvisibleinthegraduateworld,withadecliningrateofemploymentamongstMuslimengineeringandsciencegraduates.TheSanFranciscoterroristattackhashadaseriousimpactontheworldenergymarkets,asNorthAmericasandWesternEuropesrelationswiththeMiddleEastsoured.Severaloilfieldsweresetalight,andpipelinesobstructed.Late2021andearly2022wasblightedbyoccasionalinstabilityofenergysupply,andmoreoften,highenergycosts.2023threatensmoreofthesame.Althoughcommunityrelationsareseverelystrained,theaccessionofTurkeytotheEUhasbroughtmanypositivebenefitsfortheUK,andLondonseconomy,bringingamuchneededmixtureofskilledmanualworkersandprofessionalsintothecountry.

    Associaldisintegrationandsegregationhasincreased,sohaveattitudestoeducation,andschoolshavebecomepolarised,withsomeparentpressuregroupscampaigningagainsttheinclusionofIslamicfestivals,ortheprovisionsofprayerspace.Feelingtrapped,Muslimparentgroupshavecalledforanincreaseof

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 30

    appearinginNorthEastLondon,andenvironmentaldirectactiongroupsoperatinginWestLondon.Othergroups,particularlyfromthewealthiestpartsofLondon,arenotengagingwithclimatechange,andinsteadprefertospendtheirmoneyonsecurity.Differentstillarethewealthyneighbourhoodswhoarepurchasingsolarpanelingenmass,toprotectthemselvesagainstthepotentialenergycrisis.

    Therehasbeenarecentresurgenceinmalaria.Atfirstthepresswerekeentoblamethehigherimmigrationrates,suggestingdiseaseshadbeenbroughtin,howeverresearchatUCLstropicalmedicinedepartmenthasrecentlyconfirmedthattheoutbreakisdowntotheUKshotterclimate.MosquitoescarryingmalarianolongerfinditdifficulttosurviveintheUKclimate.TheSchoolofTropicalMedicinepredictedthatLondonwouldbeseeincreasesinothertropical,mosquitobornediseasesaswell.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 31

    6. Brakes On: London ne Thisscenarioischaracterisedbyashrinkingpopulationandprolongedrecession,butgenerallystrongtiesbetweendifferentcommunitiesandgoodlevelsof

    in the Slow La

    cohesiveness.

    Itis2023,andLondonisafadedstaramongstitsglobalrivals.Thelingeringimpactofaprolongedrecession,combinedwithrisingtaxesthatsqueezethesuperrich,haveseenLondonswealthiestinhabitantsdrainawaytoothercities.Theculturalandeconomicboomofthefirstdecadeofthecenturyhavebeenreplacedbyanairoffadedgrandeur.Populationprojectionshavefailedtomaterialise,andthecityspopulationisinfactshrinkingforthefirsttimeinthelast50years.

    Thecitysdecliningeconomicfortunesareplacingaheavierburdenonpublicservices,andstateinterventionhasincreased,fundedbythetaxrisessounpopularwithbigcorporationsandtheirwealthiestemployees.Amoreactivepublicsectorispartlyaresponsetocircumstances:Londonisnolongerthemagnetitoncewasforprivatesectorinvestment.Welfareschemesaremorenumerousandsocialhousingishigheruptheagendathanithasbeensincethe1970s.

    YetdespitetheparlousconditionoftheeconomytheLondonersthatremainhave,insomesenses,abetterqualityoflife,oratleasthaveacceptedtheirsituationandresolvedtogetonwithitandeachother.Significantstateinvestmentinpublictransportmakesgettingroundthecitymucheasier,andforanentiregenerationofoungLondoners,cyclingtoyourdestinationisthenorm.y

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 32

    Chronology AllofthescenariosofferanimageofLondonin2023.Thefollowingaresomeofthekeypointsinthedevelopmentofthisparticulartrajectoryofthefuturewhathappenedbetweennow(2008)andthen(2023)tobringthisscenariointobeing.

    2012:theOlympicsareviewedbymanyasanunmitigateddisasterasourceofgreatshametoLondoners,askeyvenuesarenotfullycompletedontimeandthegamesaremiredincontroversycentringonbribespaidbycorporatesponsorstotheorganisingcommitteeandothers.

    2016:EnvironmentalactivistgroupslaunchanunexpectedraidonHeathrowsterminal5,bringingflightstoastandstillforalmostthreedaysbygluingandchainingthemselvestorunways.Itisapublicitystunttoraiseawarenessaboutclimatechange,butisrespondedtoangrilybyholidaymakersandbusinesspeople,wholaunchlawsuitsagainsttheperpetrators.

    2020:theextentofLondonsfallfrominternationalgraceisclearasnofewerthan10majorcorporationspulltheirheadquartersoutofthecapitalinfavourofalternativesitesinothercountries.TheskyscrapersoncetheprideofLondonsskylinestandemptyandunoccupied.

    Whatbeganasastateofaffairsenforcedbycircumstancenamelythemostprolongedandsevererecessioninrecentmemoryhasbecomeanacceptedandevenactivelysupportedrejectionofcapitalism.MostLondonersenjoyabetterwork/lifebalancethantheydidtwentyyearsago.BritainsworkinghoursarenowmoreinlinewiththoseofotherEuropeannations.BusinessleaderscomplainthatLondonwillneverregainitscompetitiveedgeunlessworkersputthehoursin,butforthetimebeingatleast,Londonersseemtovaluetheirtimeabovetheirearnings.WagedifferentialsbetweenLondonsrichestandpooresthavenarrowed,partlybecauseatthetopendthemosthighlypaidjobsaredisappearingelsewhere,whilstatthebottomendincreasestotheminimumwageandthelackofcheapimmigrantlabourmeanthatwagesareupfortheunskilledandsemiskilledworkforce.

    MigrationintoLondonhasdeclinedandislowerthanprojectedasother,thrivingworldcitiesbecomecomparativelymoreattractive.ImmigrantsarenowmorelikelytobenonEUresidents,withworkersfromEasternEuropeanstatesincreasinglyoptingtoremainintheirownboomingcities.ItisgenerallyfeltthatthedeclineinmigrationhasallowedLondonsdiversecommunitiesbreathingspacetostabiliseandsettlewithoutthepressuresofabsorbinglargenumbersofnewarrivals.ThereismuchlesschurninLondonspopulationtodaythantherewasfifteenyearsago,withfamilieslesslikelytorelocateoutofthecityandtheageprofileofmostboroughschangingaccordingly.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 33

    Thestatedriven,socialhousingorientedhousebuildingprogrammeoftheprevioustwodecadesandanewallocationprocesshashelpedtodeghettoisethosepartsofLondonwhereresidentialsegregationbetweenethnicgroupswasmostevident.Moreover,bettereconomicprospectsforBritainsBMEcommunitiesmeansthatmoreaffluent,traditionallywhitesuburbsarenowopeninguptoabroaderrangeofresidents.Intermsofsocialnetworks,moreover,therearemanymoreopportunitiesforpeoplefromdifferentbackgroundstomeetandforgefriendshipsthanwaspreviouslythenorm.

    Commercialpropertypriceshavebeenhitbytherecession.Inthecity,thenewerlandmarkofficebuildingshavestruggledtofindoccupantsandtherehavebeensomehighprofiledefectionsoffirmsrelocatinginsomecasesentirelytootherpartsofEurope.MeetingCO2targetshasbeenapriorityforsuccessivegovernmentsandLondonmayors.Harshlimitshavebeenimposedonbusinesses,includingairlines.Foroveradecade,astheimpactofclimatechangebegantobefeltinSouthernEurope,publicopinionwasbehindsuchmeasures.InthecontextofLondonsfallinginternationalstatus,however,agrowingnumberofpoliticiansandbusinessleadersareaskingifLondonhasputitselfintoanenvironmentalstraightjacket.

    Bettersocialintegrationandreducedthreatofterrorismhasencouragedgreaterunderstandingbetweencultures.Asimmigrationlevelsfall(andtheissuecoolsdowninthemedia)Londonsexistingethniccommunitiesfeelthebenefit,havingpreviouslycomplainedthathostilitytonewarrivalswasleadingtohardeningattitudestoallminoritygroups.ThesenseofcommunitarianisminLondonsboroughshasfosteredaresurgenceintheuseofthepublicrealmandfierceprotectionofpubliclyownedlandagainstcorporationcreep.Activitiessuchasneighbourhoodpicnics,artseventsandsportsdayshavebecomehugelypopularinsomecommunities,ofteninitiatedbylocalauthoritiesbutnowselfsustaining.Commentatorstalkaboutarenaissanceinbelongingwithsquares,parksandotherpublicspace ago.sgenerallybetterkeptandbetterusedthantheyweretwentyyears

    Crimerateshavefallen,andinthisclimate,attitudestosecurityhaverelaxedalittle.Londonersareproudoftheiropennessandreluctancetofencethemselvesofffromeachother.Thesocioeconomicmixofresidentshasimprovedinmanyboroughs,andallreliablemeasurespointtowardsneighbourlinessandtrustbeinghigherthanithasbeenfordecades.Asonepoliticiancynicallycommented,noones

    gthesedays.gotanythingworknickin

    Volunteeringisup,withcommunityactivismmuchstrongerthanpreviously.Somesocialentrepreneursclaimitcouldbestrongerstill,butthatstateinterventionisstiflinggrassrootsactionandinvolvement,ratherthanencouragingit.Therecessionhitthemostcommercialformsofleisureactivity.Associationalcultureandgroupactivitiesaremorepopularthantheywere,andthirdsectorleisureproviders,

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 34

    evolvingfromthecommunitybasedvolunteergroupsgivenalegupbynewfundingportantpstreamstenyearsago,arenowanim artofthemarketinLondon.

    TherehasbeenabiginvestmentineducationinLondonandthegapbetweenthebestandworstschoolshasnarrowed,insomeplacessignificantly.Thesocialandethnicdiversityofuniversityentrantsisgreaterthanitwastwodecadesago,andFE/businesspartnershipsseemgenuinelytobeequippingLondonsyoungpeoplewiththenecessaryskillsforthejobsmarket.Londonisbetteratnurturinghomegrowntalentattainmentandemploymentamongstitsyoungpeoplehaveincreased.Pocketsofworklessnessremaindifficulttoovercome,however,andstillffectsomeethniccommunitiesmorethanothers.e

    LonCollab scenarios PRINT.pdfThe Collaborative City Future Scenarios Contents

    IntroductionWhat do the scenarios cover? Scenario 1: Full Speed Ahead Super Global CityScenario 2: Hitting the Buffers London Falling ApartScenario 3: Steady Ahead Growing Outwards, Growing GreenerScenario 4: Knocked Off Course? Shocks to the SystemScenario 5: Off the Rails Divided CityScenario 6: Brakes On London in the Slow Lane

    How were the scenarios developed?How can the scenarios be used?

    1. Full Speed Ahead: Super Global CityPopulation, immigration and demographic changeEconomy, skills and consumerismHousing, transport and the environmentPublic services and healthcare

    2. Hitting the Buffers: London Falling Apart Population, immigration and demographic changeCommunity and civil societyEconomy and skillsHousing, transport and the environmentPublic services and healthcare

    3. Steady Ahead: Growing Outwards, Growing Greener ChronologyPopulation, immigration and demographic changeEconomy and skillsEnvironment, housing and transportLifestyles, social cohesion and democratic renewalPublic services and healthcare

    4. Knocked Off Course: Shocks to the SystemChronology

    5. Out of Control: Divided City Chronology

    6. Brakes On: London in the Slow Lane Chronology