the collaborative city: future scenarios

Download The Collaborative City: Future Scenarios

Post on 22-Mar-2016

215 views

Category:

Documents

1 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

The accompanies the launch report and includes the six scenarios developed as part of the early London Collaborative work, along with an account of the process by which the scarious were developed, and an indication of how they can be used.

TRANSCRIPT

  • thelondoncollaborative

    The Collaborative CityFuture Scenarios

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS

    The Collaborative City Future Scenarios

    Contents

    Introduction________________________________________________________________________________ 1

    1.FullSpeedAhead:SuperGlobalCity___________________________________________________ 7

    2.HittingtheBuffers:LondonFallingApart____________________________________________13

    3.SteadyAhead:GrowingOutwards,GrowingGreener _______________________________18

    4.KnockedOffCourse:ShockstotheSystem___________________________________________24

    5.OutofControl:DividedCity ___________________________________________________________27

    .BrakesOn:LondonintheSlowLane _________________________________________________31 6

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS

  • assumptions.

    Thethreecorescenariosi.e.thethreewiththehighestlikelihoodwithinthe15yeartimeframearedescribedbelow,alongwithanoverviewofthemainchallengesandissuestheyraiseforpublicservices,

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 1

    Introduction ThefutureofacityascomplexandunpredictableasLondonisinherentlyunknowable.Butaswithothercomplextopics,scenarioscanprovideahelpfulway

    oprepare.ofthinkingaboutdifferentpossiblefuturesanddecidingthebestwayt

    Thisreport,whichaccompaniesthemainLondonCollaborativereportTheCollaborativeCity,includesthesixscenariosdevelopedaspartoftheearlyLondonCollaborativework,alongwithanaccountoftheprocessbywhichthescenariosweredeveloped,andanindicationofhowtheycanbeused.

    Thescenariosincludedinthisreportarenotendsinthemselves,buttoolstosurfacekeystrategicchallenges,choices,tensionsandtradeoffs.Theyhavebeentestedalreadybypublicsectorleadersinaseriesofworkshops,andrefinedinlightoffeedback.

    ThisreportshouldbereadalongsidetheFuturetrendsevidencereviewreport,whichoffersananalysisofmorethan50studiesaboutthefutureofLondon,anevidencebasethatprovidedavitalunderpinningforthescenarios.

    What do the scenarios cover? WehavedevelopedsixalternativescenariosofthefutureofLondonin2023.Eachscenariooffersachronology,indicatingthestepsalongthewaytothispossiblefuturesituation.Allofthescenariosthencover,tovaryingdegrees,thefollowing

    aspectsoffutureLondon:

    e1. Demographicchang

    2. Economyandskills

    3. Housingandinfrastructure vironment4. Climatechangeandtheen

    5. Technologicalinnovation

    s6. Lifestylesandbehaviour d7. Socialcohesion/discor

    8. HealthandwellbeingNoneofthescenariosareintendedtopredictthefutureofLondon:thechancesofthecapitalactuallylooking,feelingorworkinglikethe2023asdescribedinanyoneofthescenariosarevirtuallynonexistent.Butwiththissaid,theeventsdescribedinsomeofthescenariosaremorelikelytooccurthanothers,givencurrentdataand

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 2

    Scenario 1: Full Speed Ahead Super Global City InthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbyhighpopulationgrowth,aprevailingsocialattitudeoftolerantcoexistenceandaverystrongeconomy(i.e.onewithgrowthinoutputandemploymentexceedingthemostoptimisticofcurrentpredictions).SignificantandcontinuinginvestmentinLondonstransportinfrastructureenablescontinuingpopulationandworkforcemobility.Thereisamature,wellestablishedmarketforpublicserviceprovision,inwhichprivateand

    rs.thirdsectorprovidersaremajorplaye

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    Whatshouldtheroleofthepublicsectorbeinaprivatesectordominatedfuture?

    Howtocopewithanextremelymobileandchangingpopulation. Theissues(e.g.governance)posedbyaLondonplushinterlandscenario.

    Scenario 2: Hitting the Buffers London Falling Apart ThisscenarioexplorestheimpactonLondonofincreasingoutmigrationbutsteadypopulationgrowthduetoahigherthanexpectedbirthrate,andaprolongedrecession.Thesetrendscombinewithotherstocreateaprevailingsocialclimateoffear,suspicionandcompetitionbetweencommunities.Thecapitalhaslongbeenovertakenbyinternationalcompetitorsandisnolongerthedestinationofchoiceforeconomicmigrants,letalonetourists.Thepoorestpeopleliveincreasinglybeyondthemarginsofformalsociety:inhealthandhousingconditionsthatseemtobelonginapastcentury.

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    ofrecession.Preventingbraindrainandmajorskillsshortagesintheevent Dealingwithchronichealth,employmentandcrimeproblems. Howtorespondtoseverecommunitytensions,includingtheriseofthefarright.

    Scenario 3: Steady Ahead Growing Outwards, Growing Greener InthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbypopulationgrowthinthemiddlebandofcurrentpredictions,aprevailingsocialattitudeoftolerantcoexistenceandmediumeconomicgrowth(i.e.withgrowthinoutputandemploymentinlinewithcurrentlongtermpredictions).Thelastfifteenyearshaveseenashiftofpeople,moneyandpowerfromthecentretothesuburbs,andfromthereonwardsdowntolocalwardsandcommunities.Whilstthishashadmanypositivebenefits,Londonasawholeissomethingofapatchwork,andstandardsvaryconsiderably.Sustainabilityandtheenvironmenthavecontinuedtheirsteadyriseupthepoliticalandpersonalagendas.

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 3

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    aintainingstandards.Balancingcommunityleddecisionmakingwithm Theimpactofamajorincreaseinhomeworking.

    Whatpartpublicservicesshouldplayinfacilitatingenvironmentalchange.

    Theotherthreescenarios,whicharearguablylesslikelybutarestillworthyofcarefulconsiderationbecauseofthetypeofopportunitiesorchallengestheypose,are:

    Scenario 4: Knocked Off Course? Shocks to the System Inthisvisionof2023LondonisrecoveringfromanumberofdisastersoverthepastthreeyearsincludingayearofsustainedfloodingthatleftinfrastructureruinedandaffectedthelivesofthousandsofLondoners.Inspiteofthis,Londonisamuchmorecohesivecitythaninpreviousdecades,andamajorpublicreconstructionprogrammehashelpedthecapitalavoidaprolongedrecession.Conditionsinsome

    jorhealthandcrimeproblems,however.areasremainextremelypoor,withma

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    Howtoplanforthepostdisasterphaseofreconstruction. Providinglongtermforthemostseverelyhitcommunities.

    Scenario 5: Off the Rails Divided City Londoninthisscenarioischaracterisedbypopulationandeconomicgrowthinthemiddlebandofcurrentpredictions,butissufferingfromaprevailingsocialattitudeofsegregation,fearandsuspicioncausedbyglobalinstabilityandsustainedterroristthreat.

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    elations.Howtorespondtogloballydriventrends,e.g.incommunityr Potentialofhousingpolicytoamelioratespatialsegregation.

    Scenario 6: Brakes On London in the Slow Lane Thisscenarioischaracterisedbyashrinkingpopulationandprolongedrecession,butgenerallystrongtiesbetweendifferentcommunitiesandgoodlevelsofcohesiveness.Londonisnolongerthemagnetitoncewasforcorporateinvestors,so

    ismhavesteppedintofillthegap.thepublicsectorandcommunityactiv

    Challenges,issuesandopportunities:

    gpopulation.Dealingwiththeunexpected,inparticularashrinkin Respondingtotheprivatesectorquittingthecity.

  • Thediagrambelowconveyshowthescenariossitinrelationtoeachother,intermsftheiroveralllikelihoodinthetimeframeweareconsidering(thenext15years).o

    Off the rails-Social cohesion

    breaks down

    Breaks on-Slower growth,

    more sustainability

    Likely

    Uncertain

    Random

    Steady ahead

    Hitting the buffers-Slowdown in UK economy

    Super global city- Population and economy grow

    fast

    Knocked off Course

    Shocks to thesystem

    Consider Carefully in

    planning

    Less certain

    Be preparedand resilient

    Flood Economic collapseTerrorist

    attack Riot

    How were the scenarios developed? Thesescenariosweredevelopedonthebasisofsecondaryratherthannewprimaryresearch.ThistooktheformofanextensivereviewofexistingevidenceandanalysisaboutthefutureofLondon,thefindingsofwhicharecapturedintheseparately

    ort.publishedFuturetrendsevidencereviewrep

    Thisreviewprovideduswiththescenariocontent,andinparticularasoundunderstandingoftherangeofpossiblefutures.Thecontentofallofthescenariostakentogetherisrepresentedbythelistofeightfactorsoutlinedearlier.

    Thenextstepwastodefinethescenarioparameters:thefactorsthatwouldframeordriveeachoftheimagesofthefuture.Clearparametersareimportantinorder

    tivethread.togiveeachscenarioastrongrationaleandnarra

    arioparameters:Threefactorsprovideourscen

    wth1. Rateofpopulationgro 2. Stateoftheeconomy

    3. Strengthoftiesbetweencommunities

    THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 4

  • THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 5

    Thesefactorswerechosenoverothersbecausetheywerefelttobeareasofhighimpact,butalsofundamentaluncertainty.Oneofthekeymessagesfromourexpertworkshopwasthatdespitetheairofpredictabilityprovidedbypopulationoreconomicprojections,trendsintheseareascanchangerapidlyandwithfarreachingconsequences.Andourreviewofevidencesuggestedthatsocietalattitudesandcommunitycohesionwereparticularlyhardtopredict,butoffundamentalimportance.

    Ourscenarioparameterswerealsochosenbecausetheyarecomparativelyindependentasvariables:outsideofthecontrolofanyoneorganisation(includinganyonepublicbody)orindividual,andapowerfuldriverofchangeinotherareas.Weuseddifferentconfigurationsofeachofthethreefactorstoframeeachofthescenarios,andthefirstparagraphofeachofthescenariosdescribesthisstartingpoint.

    Otherfactorsconsideredanddiscountedincludedclimatechange,whichwhilstclearlyimportantforthefutureofLondonwasfelttobetoocertainbutalsolikelytobedirectlyexperiencedtoonlyasmallextentinthe15yeartimeframe;andgovernance/theroleofthestate,whichisincludedasthelensthroughwhichallotherfactorsarerefractedinthescenarios.

    DraftsofthecorescenarioswerethentestedbyparticipantsinfoursharedinterestworkshopsheldduringFebruary2008.Workshopparticipants,includingmembersofourLeadershipNetworkalongwithacademicsandleadingpolicymakers,wereaskedtoconsiderboththeo

Recommended

View more >