The Collaborative City: Future Scenarios

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The accompanies the launch report and includes the six scenarios developed as part of the early London Collaborative work, along with an account of the process by which the scarious were developed, and an indication of how they can be used.

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<ul><li><p>thelondoncollaborative</p><p>The Collaborative CityFuture Scenarios</p></li><li><p> THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS </p><p>The Collaborative City Future Scenarios </p><p>Contents </p><p>Introduction________________________________________________________________________________ 1 </p><p>1.FullSpeedAhead:SuperGlobalCity___________________________________________________ 7 </p><p>2.HittingtheBuffers:LondonFallingApart____________________________________________13 </p><p>3.SteadyAhead:GrowingOutwards,GrowingGreener _______________________________18 </p><p>4.KnockedOffCourse:ShockstotheSystem___________________________________________24 </p><p>5.OutofControl:DividedCity ___________________________________________________________27 </p><p>.BrakesOn:LondonintheSlowLane _________________________________________________31 6</p></li><li><p> THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS </p></li><li><p> assumptions.</p><p>Thethreecorescenariosi.e.thethreewiththehighestlikelihoodwithinthe15yeartimeframearedescribedbelow,alongwithanoverviewofthemainchallengesandissuestheyraiseforpublicservices,</p><p>THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 1 </p><p>Introduction ThefutureofacityascomplexandunpredictableasLondonisinherentlyunknowable.Butaswithothercomplextopics,scenarioscanprovideahelpfulway</p><p>oprepare.ofthinkingaboutdifferentpossiblefuturesanddecidingthebestwayt</p><p>Thisreport,whichaccompaniesthemainLondonCollaborativereportTheCollaborativeCity,includesthesixscenariosdevelopedaspartoftheearlyLondonCollaborativework,alongwithanaccountoftheprocessbywhichthescenariosweredeveloped,andanindicationofhowtheycanbeused.</p><p>Thescenariosincludedinthisreportarenotendsinthemselves,buttoolstosurfacekeystrategicchallenges,choices,tensionsandtradeoffs.Theyhavebeentestedalreadybypublicsectorleadersinaseriesofworkshops,andrefinedinlightoffeedback.</p><p>ThisreportshouldbereadalongsidetheFuturetrendsevidencereviewreport,whichoffersananalysisofmorethan50studiesaboutthefutureofLondon,anevidencebasethatprovidedavitalunderpinningforthescenarios.</p><p>What do the scenarios cover? WehavedevelopedsixalternativescenariosofthefutureofLondonin2023.Eachscenariooffersachronology,indicatingthestepsalongthewaytothispossiblefuturesituation.Allofthescenariosthencover,tovaryingdegrees,thefollowing</p><p>aspectsoffutureLondon:</p><p> e1. Demographicchang</p><p> 2. Economyandskills</p><p> 3. Housingandinfrastructure vironment4. Climatechangeandtheen</p><p> 5. Technologicalinnovation</p><p> s6. Lifestylesandbehaviour d7. Socialcohesion/discor</p><p>8. HealthandwellbeingNoneofthescenariosareintendedtopredictthefutureofLondon:thechancesofthecapitalactuallylooking,feelingorworkinglikethe2023asdescribedinanyoneofthescenariosarevirtuallynonexistent.Butwiththissaid,theeventsdescribedinsomeofthescenariosaremorelikelytooccurthanothers,givencurrentdataand</p></li><li><p> THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 2 </p><p>Scenario 1: Full Speed Ahead Super Global City InthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbyhighpopulationgrowth,aprevailingsocialattitudeoftolerantcoexistenceandaverystrongeconomy(i.e.onewithgrowthinoutputandemploymentexceedingthemostoptimisticofcurrentpredictions).SignificantandcontinuinginvestmentinLondonstransportinfrastructureenablescontinuingpopulationandworkforcemobility.Thereisamature,wellestablishedmarketforpublicserviceprovision,inwhichprivateand</p><p>rs.thirdsectorprovidersaremajorplaye</p><p>Challenges,issuesandopportunities:</p><p> Whatshouldtheroleofthepublicsectorbeinaprivatesectordominatedfuture?</p><p> Howtocopewithanextremelymobileandchangingpopulation. Theissues(e.g.governance)posedbyaLondonplushinterlandscenario.</p><p>Scenario 2: Hitting the Buffers London Falling Apart ThisscenarioexplorestheimpactonLondonofincreasingoutmigrationbutsteadypopulationgrowthduetoahigherthanexpectedbirthrate,andaprolongedrecession.Thesetrendscombinewithotherstocreateaprevailingsocialclimateoffear,suspicionandcompetitionbetweencommunities.Thecapitalhaslongbeenovertakenbyinternationalcompetitorsandisnolongerthedestinationofchoiceforeconomicmigrants,letalonetourists.Thepoorestpeopleliveincreasinglybeyondthemarginsofformalsociety:inhealthandhousingconditionsthatseemtobelonginapastcentury.</p><p>Challenges,issuesandopportunities:</p><p> ofrecession.Preventingbraindrainandmajorskillsshortagesintheevent Dealingwithchronichealth,employmentandcrimeproblems. Howtorespondtoseverecommunitytensions,includingtheriseofthefarright.</p><p>Scenario 3: Steady Ahead Growing Outwards, Growing Greener InthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbypopulationgrowthinthemiddlebandofcurrentpredictions,aprevailingsocialattitudeoftolerantcoexistenceandmediumeconomicgrowth(i.e.withgrowthinoutputandemploymentinlinewithcurrentlongtermpredictions).Thelastfifteenyearshaveseenashiftofpeople,moneyandpowerfromthecentretothesuburbs,andfromthereonwardsdowntolocalwardsandcommunities.Whilstthishashadmanypositivebenefits,Londonasawholeissomethingofapatchwork,andstandardsvaryconsiderably.Sustainabilityandtheenvironmenthavecontinuedtheirsteadyriseupthepoliticalandpersonalagendas.</p></li><li><p> THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 3 </p><p>Challenges,issuesandopportunities:</p><p> aintainingstandards.Balancingcommunityleddecisionmakingwithm Theimpactofamajorincreaseinhomeworking.</p><p> Whatpartpublicservicesshouldplayinfacilitatingenvironmentalchange.</p><p>Theotherthreescenarios,whicharearguablylesslikelybutarestillworthyofcarefulconsiderationbecauseofthetypeofopportunitiesorchallengestheypose,are:</p><p>Scenario 4: Knocked Off Course? Shocks to the System Inthisvisionof2023LondonisrecoveringfromanumberofdisastersoverthepastthreeyearsincludingayearofsustainedfloodingthatleftinfrastructureruinedandaffectedthelivesofthousandsofLondoners.Inspiteofthis,Londonisamuchmorecohesivecitythaninpreviousdecades,andamajorpublicreconstructionprogrammehashelpedthecapitalavoidaprolongedrecession.Conditionsinsome</p><p>jorhealthandcrimeproblems,however.areasremainextremelypoor,withma</p><p>Challenges,issuesandopportunities:</p><p> Howtoplanforthepostdisasterphaseofreconstruction. Providinglongtermforthemostseverelyhitcommunities.</p><p>Scenario 5: Off the Rails Divided City Londoninthisscenarioischaracterisedbypopulationandeconomicgrowthinthemiddlebandofcurrentpredictions,butissufferingfromaprevailingsocialattitudeofsegregation,fearandsuspicioncausedbyglobalinstabilityandsustainedterroristthreat.</p><p>Challenges,issuesandopportunities:</p><p> elations.Howtorespondtogloballydriventrends,e.g.incommunityr Potentialofhousingpolicytoamelioratespatialsegregation.</p><p>Scenario 6: Brakes On London in the Slow Lane Thisscenarioischaracterisedbyashrinkingpopulationandprolongedrecession,butgenerallystrongtiesbetweendifferentcommunitiesandgoodlevelsofcohesiveness.Londonisnolongerthemagnetitoncewasforcorporateinvestors,so</p><p>ismhavesteppedintofillthegap.thepublicsectorandcommunityactiv</p><p>Challenges,issuesandopportunities:</p><p> gpopulation.Dealingwiththeunexpected,inparticularashrinkin Respondingtotheprivatesectorquittingthecity.</p></li><li><p>Thediagrambelowconveyshowthescenariossitinrelationtoeachother,intermsftheiroveralllikelihoodinthetimeframeweareconsidering(thenext15years).o</p><p>Off the rails-Social cohesion </p><p>breaks down</p><p>Breaks on-Slower growth, </p><p>more sustainability</p><p>Likely</p><p>Uncertain</p><p>Random</p><p>Steady ahead</p><p>Hitting the buffers-Slowdown in UK economy</p><p>Super global city- Population and economy grow </p><p>fast</p><p>Knocked off Course</p><p>Shocks to thesystem</p><p>Consider Carefully in</p><p>planning</p><p>Less certain</p><p>Be preparedand resilient</p><p>Flood Economic collapseTerrorist</p><p>attack Riot</p><p>How were the scenarios developed? Thesescenariosweredevelopedonthebasisofsecondaryratherthannewprimaryresearch.ThistooktheformofanextensivereviewofexistingevidenceandanalysisaboutthefutureofLondon,thefindingsofwhicharecapturedintheseparately</p><p>ort.publishedFuturetrendsevidencereviewrep</p><p>Thisreviewprovideduswiththescenariocontent,andinparticularasoundunderstandingoftherangeofpossiblefutures.Thecontentofallofthescenariostakentogetherisrepresentedbythelistofeightfactorsoutlinedearlier.</p><p>Thenextstepwastodefinethescenarioparameters:thefactorsthatwouldframeordriveeachoftheimagesofthefuture.Clearparametersareimportantinorder</p><p>tivethread.togiveeachscenarioastrongrationaleandnarra</p><p>arioparameters:Threefactorsprovideourscen</p><p> wth1. Rateofpopulationgro 2. Stateoftheeconomy</p><p>3. Strengthoftiesbetweencommunities</p><p>THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 4 </p></li><li><p> THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 5 </p><p>Thesefactorswerechosenoverothersbecausetheywerefelttobeareasofhighimpact,butalsofundamentaluncertainty.Oneofthekeymessagesfromourexpertworkshopwasthatdespitetheairofpredictabilityprovidedbypopulationoreconomicprojections,trendsintheseareascanchangerapidlyandwithfarreachingconsequences.Andourreviewofevidencesuggestedthatsocietalattitudesandcommunitycohesionwereparticularlyhardtopredict,butoffundamentalimportance.</p><p>Ourscenarioparameterswerealsochosenbecausetheyarecomparativelyindependentasvariables:outsideofthecontrolofanyoneorganisation(includinganyonepublicbody)orindividual,andapowerfuldriverofchangeinotherareas.Weuseddifferentconfigurationsofeachofthethreefactorstoframeeachofthescenarios,andthefirstparagraphofeachofthescenariosdescribesthisstartingpoint.</p><p>Otherfactorsconsideredanddiscountedincludedclimatechange,whichwhilstclearlyimportantforthefutureofLondonwasfelttobetoocertainbutalsolikelytobedirectlyexperiencedtoonlyasmallextentinthe15yeartimeframe;andgovernance/theroleofthestate,whichisincludedasthelensthroughwhichallotherfactorsarerefractedinthescenarios.</p><p>DraftsofthecorescenarioswerethentestedbyparticipantsinfoursharedinterestworkshopsheldduringFebruary2008.Workshopparticipants,includingmembersofourLeadershipNetworkalongwithacademicsandleadingpolicymakers,wereaskedtoconsiderboththeopportunitiesandchallengesthescenariosposedfortheirorganisationandhowthescenariotheywereaskedtofocusonmightbemademorecoherent,consistentanduseful.</p><p>Feedbackfromworkshopdiscussionswasusedtomakesubstantialamendmentstothescenariosandhashelpedustodeveloptheversionspresentedherein.</p><p>How can the scenarios be used? Thescenarioswillhaveawiderangeofpotentialapplications,including,butnotlimitedto:</p><p> usingthescenariosasthebasisforawholesystemsimulation,whereinparticipantstakeonaroleinthefutureasoutlinedinoneormoreofthe</p><p>policyresponses;scenarios,andusethisexercisetotestoutorganisationaland</p><p> disaggregatingthescenariosandrebuildingapreferred,ornormativescenario,basedoncurrentpreferencesets;</p><p> takingthesescenariosasglobalversionsofthefutureanddoingfurtherresearchandanalysistocreatemoredetailedscenariosforaparticularsector,industryororganisationsituatedwithintheglobalframework;</p></li><li><p> THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 6 </p><p> usingthescenariostotestoutthestrengthsandweaknessesofaparticularpolicyprogrammeorcourseofaction,usingtheopportunitiesandchallengespresentedbythescenarios;</p><p> workingacrossthescenarios,perhapsinaworkshopsetting,todefinetheos.robustactionsfortodayi.e.thosethatholdacrossallofthescenari</p><p>Theremainderofthisreportismadeupbythesixscenariosthemselves.</p></li><li><p> THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 7 </p><p>1. Full Speed Ahead: SuperInthisscenarioLondonischaracterisedbyhighpopulationgrowth,aprevailingsocialattitudeoftolerantcoexistenceandaverystrongeconomy(i.e.growthin</p><p>.</p><p> Global City </p><p>outputandemploymentexceedthemostoptimisticofcurrentpredictions)</p><p>Its2023andLondonisbooming.Asyoung,dynamic,creativecity,twentysomethingsfromacrosstheworldareheadingforLondonasbetterofffamiliesandolderLondonersincreasinglychoosetomoveouttotheHomeCounties.</p><p>LondonsworkforceiscolonisingtheSouthEastasneverbefore,confirmingitasthemegacitythatithaslongpromisedtobecome.Thishasbeenenabledaboveallbythehugeimprovementsinpublictransportinfrastructure,drivenbyastrongregionalassemblywhichincreasinglyleavesboroughcouncilsintheshade.</p><p>WithintheboundariesofGreaterLondonitself,populationgrowthishigherthanpredictionsatthestartofthecenturysuggested,buttheeconomyisstrongandthereisaclimateoftolerancetowardsnewimmigrantsbothfromEasternEuropeanddevelopingnations,eventhoughgenuineintegrationislessevident.</p><p>Transportaside,thepublicsectorhasfoundithardtokeeppacewiththegrowthofbusiness,however,andthisfastmoving,highchurnpopulationaremostlyhappyfortheprivateandthirdsectorstoprovidemoreofthoseservicestraditionallyofferedythestate.b</p><p>Chronology</p><p>AllofthescenariosofferanimageofLondonin2023.Thefollowingaresomeofthekeypointsinthedevelopmentofthisparticulartrajectoryofthefuturewhathappened .betweennow(2008)andthen(2023)tobringthisscenariointobeing</p><p> 2013:Londonsemploymentratetops72percent,andpredictionsarethatitwillcontinuetorise.</p><p> 2015:AreportfromthegovernmentsunifiedregulatorybodyhighlightstherealandgrowingproblemsofpublicspendingfailingtokeeppacewiththegrowthintheeconomyofLondon.Transportistheonlypublicservicewhichhaskeptpacewithgrowth,andinothersacrisisispredictedannually.</p><p> 2018:Crossrailopens,alittlelaterthanplanned,andisanimmediatesuccesswiththepublic.EastLondonhasalreadybenefitedhugelyfromtheprospectofitsarrivalwithcompanieskeentosetupalongtheroute.</p><p> 2021:Agovernmentreportsuggeststhat1millionoverseasmigrantshavearrivedintheUKduringthepast5years.ManyliveinLondon,whosepopulationnowstandsat8.9million,upfrom7.3millionattheturnofthecenturyandabovetheestimatesbeingmadetwentyyearsago.</p></li><li><p> Economy, skills and consumerism Withaneconomythatwasstrugglinginthenineties,thrivinginthenoughtiesandbuzzingintheteenies,Londonin2023isacityofconstantreinventionthathas</p><p>THE COLLABORATIVE CITY FUTURE TRENDS 8 </p><p>Population, immigration and demographic change Migration,bothfromwithintheUKandoverseas,hasledGreaterLondonspopulationtoincreaseto8.9millionbeyondthepredictionsbeingmadeadecadeago.EasternEuropeansfromEUmemberstates(includingTurkey)accountformuchoftheinmigrationtoLondon,alongwithAfricansandSouthAmericans.LondonsprosperitymeansthatmostarequicklyabsorbedintothejobsmarketandexperienceahighdegreeoftolerancefromtheirfellowLondoners.NewoverseasarrivalstendtocongregatewiththeircountrymeninvariouspartsofLondon,butpropertypricesandthesuccessfulpushfornewmixedtenurehousingacrossthecity(drivenbyastrongLondonassembly)havereducedtheriskofincreasedspatialsegregationbetweendifferentethnicandevensocioeconomicgroups.Asaresult,spatialintegrationishigh.Andyet,exceptforinthepoorest(usuallyimmigrant)communities,socialbondsbetweenneighbourstendtoberelativelyweak.</p><p>SizeandethnicdiversityarenottheonlynotablefeaturesofLondonspopulationin2023itsrapidlyshiftingageprofileisalsostriking.LikeallWesternnations,theUKpopulationisageing,yetinLondonitisageingatamuchslowerratethanintherestoftheUK,thankstoitspopularityamongsttheyoung(bothhighearninginternationalgraduatesandlowerskilledmigrants).Families,middleagedpeopleandtheretiredareincreasinglyoptingtomoveoutofGreaterLondonanddispersingtootherpartsoftheSouthEastwhatjournalistscallthemiddleagedspread.ItistruethattheproportionofLondonresidentsagedoversixtyhasgrownsincethestartofthecentury,butonlybyaround3percentratherthanthe5percentpredicted,andinstarkcontrasttothe14percentriseexperiencednationally.Whatsmore,thesefiguresmaskgrowingagepolarisation.InnerLondonboroughsare,onthewhole,gettingyoungerwhilstouterLondonboroughsgetolder.ThoseelderlypeopleremainingininnerLondonareincreasinglyconcentratedatthepoorerendofthespectrumandtendtoliveinrentedaccommodationoneofthefewlifestyletraitstheysharewiththeiryoungneighbours.</p><p>TheflightofolderLondonersandtheinfluxoftheyoung,alongwithcontinuedmigration...</p></li></ul>