The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder

Gary ShenkCCMP workshop 5/11/2010

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Chesapeake Bay ProgramDecision Support System

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CFD Curve

Area of Criteria Exceedence

Area of AllowableCriteria

Exceedence

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Management Actions

Watershed Model

Bay Model

CriteriaAssessmentProcedures

Effects

Allocations

Airshed Model

Land UseChange Model

ScenarioBuilder

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Snapshot:

Land Use AcreageBMPsFertilizerManureAtmospheric DepositionPoint SourcesSeptic Loads

Hourly Values:

RainfallSnowfallTemperatureEvapotranspirationWindSolar RadiationDewpointCloud Cover

“Average AnnualFlow-Adjusted Loads”

Quick Overview of Watershed Model ScenariosHourly output is summed over 10 years of hydrology to compare against other management scenarios

HSPF 1991-2000

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Atmosphere FertilizerManure

Runoff

Load reductions attributed to upland benefit employing

“efficiencies”• Efficiencies can vary by hydro-

geomorphic region

Non-Point Source Practices and ProgramsPractices With Nutrient and Sediment Reduction Efficiencies

25 land uses

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Scenario Builder

Software that simulates land use and management for

input to the Phase 5 Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Model

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Number of segment / land-use / years in watershed model

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year of completion

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Watershed Model History

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Management questions and model have been both increasing exponentially in complexity.

Year Segs Years Land Uses Purpose1982 64 2 5 Split point source and nonpoint source1985 64 2 5 Establish 40% goal 1992 64 4 8 Define 40% by basins 1994 89 8 9 Simulate nutrient cycle in more detail 1997 89 8 9 Re-evaluate and redefine 40% by major basin 2000 94 11 9 Set new goals and distribute by major subbasin 2008 1000 22 25 TMDL

Watershed Model History

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Number of Scenarios

• Mid 1980s – 0• Early 1990s – fewer than 10• Late 1990s – 37• Early 2000s – 400-500• 2010 model – about 100 pre-finalization

– 1000s?

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Scenario Generation History• 1982 – no scenarios• 1985 - 1994 – Aquaterra and SAIC

– simple scenarios through hand calculation and spreadsheets

– modified watershed model by hand

• 1995 – 2009 – series of increasingly interconnected spreadsheets– Automated Modification of watershed model

• 2010– Scenario Builder

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VolatilizationPasture

Dairy

Uncollected

Collected

Spring/FallApplication

Daily Application

Crop

Enclosure

BarnyardVolatilization

Storage

VolatilizationVolatilization

Volatilization

RunoffRunoff Runoff

SwineLayersBroilersTurkeysHorses

Beef

Daily Application

Non-Point Source Practices and ProgramsPractices that Alter Nutrient Applications to Agriculture Land

PhytasePrecision Feeding/Forage

Management Manure Transport

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Watershed Wide Crops by Acreage

21.5%

9.1%

14.8%

11.7%

25.7%

11.9%

1.8%

1.2%0.3%

0.8%

0.3%

0.9%

2.4%

Corn & Sorghum (Grain) Corn & Sorghum (Silage) Soybeans Small Grains

Other Hay Alfalfa Vegetables Harvested Berry & Orchard

Potatoes Tobacco Cotton Peanuts

Approximately 100 crop types and 10 growing regions with different parameters for each

Tracking yields and acreages on a county basis

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Outputs to Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model

• BMPs– Descriptions– Acres– Pounds nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment reduced

• Land uses• Manure (nutrient species/land use/month)• Septic system loads• Vegetative Cover • Fertilizer application• Legumes (pounds nitrogen)• Maximum crop uptake• Uptake curve (monthly nutrient uptake by land use)

Scenario Builder Versions

• 1 Land use and Nutrient Inputs• 2 BMPs, point source, septic• 3 NEIEN implementation• 4 Summarized reports • 5 Web interface

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Scenario Builder Planned Enhancements• Version 2.2a: System Maintenance and Documentation Release

– System documentation updated • Version 2.3: Septic and Atmospheric Deposition

– Add these are two new sub-systems • Version 2.4: BMP Descriptions and Other BMP Files

– Accessory BMP files that the model needs to process BMP data from Scenario Builder.

– Input the Phase 5.3 watershed model outputs • Version 2.5: Improve Animal Waste Management System BMPs and Dead

Birds– Both are being addressed by BMPs now—will be addressed more accurately

• Version 2.6: Wastewater Sub System – Will automate input data generation over 3,000 facilities

• Version 3: NEIEN Exchange– Conversion of NEIEN BMP exchange data into Scenario Builder formats.

• Version 4: Data Products– Developing reports or other data products that will stream-line the process for

states, locals and other partners/stakeholders to request information• Version 5: User Interface

– Evolution of version 2.2 User Interface for running “what if” scenarios

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Co-Developers of the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Scenario Builder

DevelopersEPA

U of MDTreCom

USGSNRCSCRC

VaTech

Chesapeake Bay Program

Advisors and data suppliersNY, PA, MD, DE, VA, WV, DC