The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Decision Support Tools

Gary Shenk5/21/2013

2

Chesapeake Bay Partnership Models

Bay WQSTM

NEIEN

CBP Modeling Tools

CASTInteractionTools

DecisionModels/Databases

RelatedTools sparrow

201020202030

Prince George’s County

Anne ArundelCounty

6

Estuarine Model

• 57,000 cells• sub-hour hydrodynamics

•CH3D •CEQUAL-ICM

7

Water Quality Model State Variables

Temperature Salinity

Fixed Solids Freshwater Cyanobacteria

Spring Diatoms Other (Green) Algae

Microzooplankton Mesozooplankton

Dissolved Organic Carbon Labile Particulate Organic Carbon

Refractory Particulate Organic Carbon Ammonium

Nitrate+Nitrite Dissolved Organic Nitrogen

Labile Particulate Organic Nitrogen Refractory Particulate Organic Nitrogen

Total Phosphate Dissolved Organic Phosphorus

Labile Particulate Organic Phosphorus Refractory Particulate Organic Phosphorus

Chemical Oxygen Demand Dissolved Oxygen

Dissolved Silica Particulate Biogenic Silica

Living Resources OutputsSAVOystersMenhaden

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Estuarine Model

Decision variablesDissolved OxygenClarity Submerged Aquatic VegetationChlorophyll concentrations

Role of the Bay Partnership Models In Decision-Making

Annual, monthly or daily values of anthropogenic factors:Land use acresBMP implementationFertilizer Application RatesManure Application RatesMaximum UptakeVegetative CoverAFO-CAFO and Septic Loads

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Annual, monthly, or daily values of anthropogenic factors:

Land Use AcreageBMPsFertilizerManureTillageCrop typesAtmospheric depositionWaste water treatmentSeptic loads

Hourly or daily values of Meteorologicalfactors:

PrecipitationTemperatureEvapotranspirationWindSolar RadiationDew pointCloud Cover

Daily flow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment comparedto observationsover 21 years

How the Watershed Model Works

HSPF

Calibration Mode

1111

Each segment consists of 30 separately-modeled land uses:

• Regulated Pervious Urban• Regulated Impervious Urban• Unregulated Pervious Urban• Unregulated Impervious Urban• Construction• Extractive • Combined Sewer System• Wooded / Open• Disturbed Forest

• Corn/Soy/Wheat rotation (high till)

• Corn/Soy/Wheat rotation (low till)

• Other Row Crops• Alfalfa• Nursery• Pasture• Degraded Riparian Pasture• Afo / Cafo• Fertilized Hay • Unfertilized Hay

– Nutrient management versions of the above

Plus: Point Source andSeptic Loads, and

Atmospheric Deposition Loads Each calibrated to nutrient and

Sediment targets

How the Watershed Model Works

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Precipitation FertilizerManureAtmospheric deposition

Runoff

How the Watershed Model Works

Hydrologysubmodel

Management filter

RiverSedimentsubmodel Phosphorus

submodel

Nitrogensubmodel

}hourly

Bufferswetlands

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14

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MA NA SSA S P ARK

ELK

TIOG A

ON EID A

YO RK

KEN T

STEU BE N

SUS SE X

HER KIM E R

PO TTER

DEL A WA RE

BER KS

OTS EG O

MC KE AN

ACC O M AC K

IND IAN A

WAY NE

HALIF AX

ALL EG AN Y

SO M ERS ET

LE E

CLEA RFIE LD

CAY UG A

BLAIR

LU ZE RN E

BRA DF OR D

CEN TR E

TIOG A

LA NC AS TER

PER RY

BRO O M E

CH EST ER

CH EN ANG O

KEN T

SUR R Y

CAM B RIA

ST M AR YS

CLIN TO N

ON TAR IO MA DIS ON

CEC IL

DO RC H ESTE R

LO U ISA

PITTS YLVA NIA

ON O ND AG A

GA RR ETT

CH AR LES

WISE

SCO TT

PRE STO N

HU NTIN G DO N

LY CO M IN G

BED FO RD

SCH U YLKILL

GU ILFO RD

FRA NK LIN

TALBO T

SUS SE X

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FAU QU IER

FL OY DSM YTH

YATE S

HEN R Y

STO KE S

AUG U STA

JE FFER SO N

BATH

HAR D Y

FULTO N

SO M ERS ET

HAM P SH IRE

BLAN D

ALBE MA RLE

SUS Q UEH AN N A

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MIF FLIN

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MO N RO E

WO RC ES TER

LIV ING S TON

CAR O LINE

SCH O HA RIE

CR AIG

LO U DO U N

LY CO M IN G

TUC KE R

NO RT HAM P TO N

CEN TR E

WAR R EN

AM ELIA

FAIR FAX

FRA NK LIN

PER SO N

HAN O VER

CAR R OLL

GR AN VILLE

CAM P BELL

CAR R OLL

JU NIA TA

TOM P KIN S

CO LUM B IA

DIN WID DIE

SULLIV AN

SUF FO LK

OR AN G E

MC D OW ELL

BRU N SWIC K

BED FO RD

CO RT LAND

BATH

CAR BO N

BUC H ANA N

ASH E

SULLIV AN

NELS O N

SUR R Y

CAS WE LL

ME CK LEN BU RGPATR IC K

FOR SY TH

BUC KIN G HA M

ESS EX

RO CK ING H AM

RU SSE LL

DAU PH IN

TAZE WELL

GR AN T

SNY DE R

CH EM UN G

ALAM AN C E

OR AN G E

CH AR LOTT E

PULA SKI

BO TETO U RT

VAN CE

CAM E RO N

SO UTH AM P TON

RO CK BR IDG E

YO RK

AL LEG HA NY

WAS HIN G TO N

LE BA NO N

AM HE RS T

NEW C ASTLE

ANN E A RU ND EL

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PEN DLE TO N

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PRIN C E G EO RG ES

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MO N TG OME RY

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CH ESA PEA KE

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GR EE NE

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SCO TT

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BO TETO U RT

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RO AN O KE

LY NC HB UR G

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CAR R OLL

DIST OF CO LUM B IA

PO RTS M OU THWAS HIN G TO N

PETE RS BU RG

BRIS TO L

RAD FO RD

WAY NE SBO R O

HO PE WELL

MA NA SSA S

EMPO RIA

BED FO RD

FRE DE RIC KSB UR G

WILLIAM S BU RG

SO UTH BO ST ON

CH EST ER

RO CK BR IDG E

RO CK ING H AM

ARLIN G TO N

SALE M

STAU N TON

GA LAX

ALEX AN DR IA

HAR R ISO NB UR G

NO RT ON

FRA NK LIN

MA RT INSV ILLE

WIN CH EST ER

CH AR LOTT ESV ILLE

BUE NA VIST A

FAIR FAX CITY

CO L O NIAL H EIG H TS

CO VIN G TONLE XIN G TON

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FALL S C HU R CH

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Phase 5 land segmentation

• Most counties are completely within a hydrogeomorphic region

• BMP and Crop data are not known on a finer scale in most cases

• Near the limit of computing capacity

15

Phase 5 RiverSegmentation

• Greater than 100 cfsor

• Has a flow gage

• Near the limit of meaningful data

• Consistent criterion

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Snapshot ofanthropogenic factors:

Land Use AcreageBMPsFertilizerManureTillageCrop typesAtmospheric depositionWaste water treatmentSeptic loads

Hourly or daily values of Meteorologicalfactors:

PrecipitationTemperatureEvapotranspirationWindSolar RadiationDew pointCloud Cover

Flow-normalized loads

How the Watershed Model Works

HSPF

Scenario Mode

Nitrogen Loads to the Chesapeake Bay2012 Estimated

Agriculture -Manure15%

Agriculture -Chemical Fertilizer

19%

Agriculture -Legume Fixation

5%

Atmospheric Deposition -livestock &

fertilized soil emissions,

mobile+utility+industry

33%

Urban / Suburban -Fertilizer

8%

Wastewater17%

Septic3%

Source: CBP Phase 5.3.2 Watershed Model data and simulation for 2012 assessment including jurisdictional supplied inputs

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0020

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1020

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CBP Watershed Model Phase 5.3.2 Nitrogen Million lb per year (not official progress runs)

PAVAMDNYWVDCDE

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Nutrient Impacts on Bay WQ

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Scenario Builder

Livestock

Manure storage practice

Pasture Fertilizer

Crops

Image Creditshttps://utextension.tennessee.edu/lincoln/4-H/Pages/Livestock-Skillathons-%28Beef,-Sheep-and-Swine%29.aspxRebelwoodsranch.comSeaburst.comhttp://pubs.ext.vt.edu/442/442-308/442-308.html

BMPs

BMPs

BMPs

BMPs

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Scenario Builder

Scenario Builder

• Input processor for the Watershed Model

• Generates past, present or future state of watershed conditions

• Specific WSM Inputs from Scenario Builder:o Management practiceso Land use acreso Manure and chemical

fertilizer application rateso Crop growtho Septic loads

Spatial ScaleCounty scale source data and calculations.

To output at a finer scale, Scenario Builder uses an area-weighted average.

Scenario Builder Ag Data Output• BMPs

– Acres– Pounds nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment reduced

• Manure application (nutrient species/month)• Fertilizer application (month)• Legumes (pounds ammonium)• Maximum Crop uptake (monthly nutrients)• Vegetative cover• Sediment generated by plowing• Land use acreage

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Scenario BuilderAg Census Crops

Land Change ModelLand Use

Conservation Practices

BMPs

Breakout 1

Breakout 2

Breakout 3

Ag Census Crops

Regional Crop data Max uptake

Vegetative cover

Plowing Effects

Leguminous Fixation

Crop Need

Ag Census Animals

Manure applicationRegional management data

Fertilizer application