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NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA Incorporating the 2nd The Changing Role of Simulation Joe Walsh intrinSIM, USA Bradley Holtz Cyon Research, USA

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  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Incorporating the 2nd

    The Changing Role of Simulation

    Joe WalshintrinSIM, USA

    Bradley HoltzCyon Research, USA

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    The Changing Role of Simulation

    The use of Simulation has seen continual double digit % growth annually for about 30 years until 2008

    This cumulative growth now means that Simulation is a significant portion of the Engineering Software Market and a driver for future growth

    This has resulted in increased focus and investment in simulation by major PLM software vendors

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    The Changing Role of Simulation

    This growth is coupled with increasing awareness that Simulation is the key enabler toIncreased Competitiveness

    The changing role of simulation is more about its role in business than the changes in technology

    Lets explore the Simulation as it relates to perceived Business Value and breadth of applicability

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Failure Analysis This is where it

    begins Understanding

    why it failed Run by a few

    experts Dominated by test

    vs analysis comparisons

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Design Validation

    Checking before it fails

    The dawn of Virtual Prototyping

    Broader use of simulation

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Design Decision Support

    Why not use simulation to make better design decisions

    Why not ask designers to run simulations

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Design Drivers

    Simulation making design decisions

    "We are only at the verge of the era where simulation generates, rather than evaluates, geometry."

    Keith Meintjes, CIMdata

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Systems Engineering

    Driven by growth of embedded software

    Heavily used in EDA world

    Design drivers extended to systems

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Business value = broader demand

    Demand should be increasing on a classic S curve

    Is simulation at an inflection point to break through ?

    Simulation Demand

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Business value = broader demand

    intrinSIM looked at actual & projected MCAE Market growth since 2009 (Courtesy of Cambashi data observatories)

    MCAE Approx. Growth Rate

    -15.00%

    -10.00%

    -5.00%

    0.00%

    5.00%

    10.00%

    15.00%

    20.00%

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Chart2

    -0.1093240303

    0.1154686817

    0.1660660582

    0.075382927

    0.0780685965

    0.0933136324

    0.0963872406

    Growth Rate

    MCAE Approx. Growth Rate

    Sheet1

    -10.93%11.55%16.61%7.54%7.81%9.33%9.64%

    20082009201020112012201320142015

    AltairVendor1152,000136,000172,000212,000250,372277,208304,996333,998

    ANSYS WorkbenchVendor2425,542408,339458,386536,651586,128637,653702,319777,066

    DS - SimuliaVendor3141,855144,022169,589202,809234,324271,908318,477371,761

    ESIVendor4103,262104,612111,692131,108143,785153,792165,054176,140

    LMS (now part of SPLM)Vendor5176,516150,301179,078247,741273,127305,821343,172385,963

    MSCVendor6254,386218,066199,500207,500221,971231,805244,414255,810

    50%Other CAE % of other MFGOther944,437796,364893,5131,008,5971,028,6541,073,9541,149,1841,237,979

    2,197,9981,957,7042,183,7582,546,4062,738,3612,952,1413,227,6163,538,717

    AltairVendor1-11%26%23%18%11%10%10%

    ANSYS WorkbenchVendor2-4%12%17%9%9%10%11%

    DS - SimuliaVendor32%18%20%16%16%17%17%

    ESIVendor41%7%17%10%7%7%7%

    LMS (now part of SPLM)Vendor5-15%19%38%10%12%12%12%

    MSCVendor6-14%-9%4%7%4%5%5%

    Other CAE @ 50% of other MCAEOther-16%12%13%2%4%7%8%

    Sheet1

    Vendor1

    Vendor2

    Vendor3

    Vendor4

    Vendor5

    Vendor6

    Other

    MCAE Approx. Worldwide Revenue in $ 1,000s

    Sheet2

    Vendor1

    Vendor2

    Vendor3

    Vendor4

    Vendor5

    Vendor6

    Other

    MCAE Approx. Worldwide Revenue in $ 1,000s

    Growth Rate

    MCAE Approx. Growth Rate

    Sheet3

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Business value = broader demand

    Inserted MCAE growth and evolution based outlook

    This does not look like an inflection point

    What happened?

    Expertise Required MCAE Market Trends evolution

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Business value = broader demand

    Simulation is still done primarily by specialized Analysts

    Growth of MCAE market is tempered due to lack of expertise available

    Expertise Available Expertise Required

    MCAE Market Trends evolution

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Business Drivers

    Business Drivers are going to force a revolution to overcome the expertise based limitation

    Simulation will be forced to find a way

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Business Drivers

    The demand is not going away

    A Simulation revolution will occur: Fit for purpose Smart Integrated Transparent

    Expertise Available Expertise Required

    MCAE Market Trends revolution

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Enabling the Revolution Increased emphasis on

    purpose built applications Increased emphasis on

    Systems Engineering Emergence of simulation

    knowledge capture & reuse

    Emergence of near real time / near physics approaches

    Unlimited access for the appropriate performance evaluation needed

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    ASSESS is Born

    we should have a separate conference just on this topic. Rod Dreisbach, Boeing

    Lunch with Brad Holtz (Cyon Research)

    lets start with a Summit Several discussion and a few

    months later and the Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Summit was born

    http://c4uc.org/News/Summit.aspx

    http://c4uc.org/News/Summit.aspx

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    ASSESS is Born

    January 2015 Santa Fe Institute as a host 40 people for a summit

    Analysis & Simulation focusSystem Engineering focusDesign focusIndustry AnalystsFinancial AnalystsEnd usersSoftware VendorsDomestic & International representation

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    ASSESS at COFES

    ASESS had a strong presence at COFES (Congress On the Future of Engineering Software) 2015 Summary overview of the Summit Presentations on Key Issues from the Summit Roundtable discussion regarding ASSESS

    next steps

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Key Issues from the Summit

    Design-centered Workflow Keith Meintjes

    Ease of use & usabilityMalcolm Panthaki

    Pre-CAD analysis and optimization Steve Levine on behalf of Dipankar Choudhury

    Impact of web/cloud/mobileJon Hirschtick

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Key Issues from the Summit

    Knowledge capture & reuseMarc Halpern

    Ability to combine heterogeneous models in a systems approach

    Steve Coy & Hubertus Tummescheit

    Appropriate model fidelity & role of unsexy stuff

    Jack Ring on behalf of Mary Fortier

    Licensing models need to be revisited

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    ASSESS Next Steps

    Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Strategy initiative First pass at mission statement

    Expanding the use and benefit of Model Based Simulation, Analysis and Systems Engineering

    2005 2015 2020?1 in 22 1 in 6 ALL

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    ASSESS Next Steps

    Establish a community for communication Creating multiple ASSESS LinkedIn groups

    Investigate organizational form going forward Consortium / or part of an existing organization intrinSIM working with AES and others to explore

    potential government funding

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    ASSESS Next Steps

    ASSESS Symposium/ Conference planned Joint activity by Cyon

    Research and intrinSIM Currently targeted for

    January 2016 (1st or 2nd week) Target larger audience than

    the Summit (100-120)

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Summary

    The Role of Simulation is changing Growth is limited by available expertise Simulation is increasingly being seen as a

    key enabler for Competitive Advantage Business Drivers are going to force a

    Revolution Technologies are emerging to enable the

    Revolution

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Summary

    Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Strategy (ASSESS) initiative has been started to address this changing role Collaborative industry wide effort

    Expanding the use and benefit of Model Based Simulation, Analysis and Systems Engineering

  • NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA

    Summary

    ASSESS activities Sponsored by Cyon Research and intrinSIM Initial Summit was January 2015 COFES 2015 sessions covering Summit Report &

    ASSESS next steps Summit report

    Creation of ASSESS LinkedIn Groups Next ASSESS event is being planned for Jan 2016

    Contact us to become part of ASSESS

    The Changing Role of SimulationThe Changing Role of SimulationThe Changing Role of SimulationFailure AnalysisDesign ValidationDesign Decision SupportDesign DriversSystems EngineeringBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness DriversBusiness DriversEnabling the RevolutionASSESS is BornASSESS is BornASSESS at COFESKey Issues from the SummitKey Issues from the SummitASSESS Next StepsASSESS Next StepsASSESS Next StepsSummarySummarySummary