the changing consumer demographicspopulation jennifer m. ortman the changing consumer demographics:...
TRANSCRIPT
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
Welcome
Chairwoman Edith Ramirez Federal Trade Commission
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Changing Demographics of the US Population
Jennifer M Ortman
The Changing Consumer Demographics An FTC Workshop
December 6 2016
This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress Any views expressed on statistical methodological or technical issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the US Census Bureau
5
Overview
Background What Why How
Results from the 2014 National Projections
How to access projections data
6
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced Demographic detail includes
age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
7
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced
Demographic detail includes age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full
demographic detail Havenrsquot released full detail
since 1997 Havenrsquot released any
projections since 2004 Links to states producing
their own projections on our website
8
Why do we produce projections
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging elderly population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning and academic
research
9
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Welcome
Chairwoman Edith Ramirez Federal Trade Commission
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Changing Demographics of the US Population
Jennifer M Ortman
The Changing Consumer Demographics An FTC Workshop
December 6 2016
This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress Any views expressed on statistical methodological or technical issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the US Census Bureau
5
Overview
Background What Why How
Results from the 2014 National Projections
How to access projections data
6
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced Demographic detail includes
age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
7
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced
Demographic detail includes age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full
demographic detail Havenrsquot released full detail
since 1997 Havenrsquot released any
projections since 2004 Links to states producing
their own projections on our website
8
Why do we produce projections
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging elderly population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning and academic
research
9
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Changing Demographics of the US Population
Jennifer M Ortman
The Changing Consumer Demographics An FTC Workshop
December 6 2016
This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress Any views expressed on statistical methodological or technical issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the US Census Bureau
5
Overview
Background What Why How
Results from the 2014 National Projections
How to access projections data
6
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced Demographic detail includes
age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
7
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced
Demographic detail includes age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full
demographic detail Havenrsquot released full detail
since 1997 Havenrsquot released any
projections since 2004 Links to states producing
their own projections on our website
8
Why do we produce projections
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging elderly population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning and academic
research
9
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Changing Demographics of the US Population
Jennifer M Ortman
The Changing Consumer Demographics An FTC Workshop
December 6 2016
This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress Any views expressed on statistical methodological or technical issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the US Census Bureau
5
Overview
Background What Why How
Results from the 2014 National Projections
How to access projections data
6
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced Demographic detail includes
age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
7
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced
Demographic detail includes age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full
demographic detail Havenrsquot released full detail
since 1997 Havenrsquot released any
projections since 2004 Links to states producing
their own projections on our website
8
Why do we produce projections
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging elderly population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning and academic
research
9
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
5
Overview
Background What Why How
Results from the 2014 National Projections
How to access projections data
6
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced Demographic detail includes
age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
7
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced
Demographic detail includes age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full
demographic detail Havenrsquot released full detail
since 1997 Havenrsquot released any
projections since 2004 Links to states producing
their own projections on our website
8
Why do we produce projections
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging elderly population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning and academic
research
9
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Overview
Background What Why How
Results from the 2014 National Projections
How to access projections data
6
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced Demographic detail includes
age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
7
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced
Demographic detail includes age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full
demographic detail Havenrsquot released full detail
since 1997 Havenrsquot released any
projections since 2004 Links to states producing
their own projections on our website
8
Why do we produce projections
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging elderly population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning and academic
research
9
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced Demographic detail includes
age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
7
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced
Demographic detail includes age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full
demographic detail Havenrsquot released full detail
since 1997 Havenrsquot released any
projections since 2004 Links to states producing
their own projections on our website
8
Why do we produce projections
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging elderly population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning and academic
research
9
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
What data do we produce
National Projections More frequently produced
Demographic detail includes age sex race Hispanic origin and nativity (in 2014)
Projections for 50-year horizon
State Projections Less frequently produced Fewer series with full
demographic detail Havenrsquot released full detail
since 1997 Havenrsquot released any
projections since 2004 Links to states producing
their own projections on our website
8
Why do we produce projections
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging elderly population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning and academic
research
9
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Why do we produce projections
Used as the base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies National Institute on Aging elderly population for
health planning Bureau of Labor Statistics working-age population for
labor force projections National Cancer Institute projection of deaths to
project the incidence of cancer Also used for resource planning and academic
research
9
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
How are estimates different from projections
Estimates For dates in the past and present Based on existing data
Projections For dates in the future Based on assumptions about future demographic
trends When both an estimate and projection are
available for the same date estimates are the preferred data
10
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Making National Projections
Starting Population
Births and
Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants Future
Population
Aging
11
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
2014 National Projections
Second series of projections based on the 2010 Census Projections of the US population by age sex
race Hispanic origin and nativity Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 First series of projections to incorporate
separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women
12
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
United States Population by Nativity 2014 to 2060 (Population in millions)
Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born
4168
2764 2866 3025 3151 3260 3386
423 479
569 651
723 782
133 143 158 171 182 188
3187 3345
3594 3802
3983
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change 2014-2060 (In millions)
1966
1568 (797)
native-born mothers
398 (203) foreign-born
mothers 1626
981
641
Total population change Births Deaths Net international migration 2014-2060
14
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Population Aged 65 and Over 2014 to 2060
46
56
74
82 88
98
15 17 21 22 22 24
Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) Percent of total population
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
15
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade 2000-2010 to 2050-2060
Total population 65 and over
39
10 8 7
6 5 5
15
31
11
7
12
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
16
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group 2014 to 2060 (Percent of population 65 and over)
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over
2014
2030
2060 47
53
57
33
35
30
20
13
12
17
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Projected Dependency Ratios 2014 to 2060
Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Note Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and overPopulation aged 18 to 64)100 Youth dependency = (Population under 18Population aged 18 to 64)100 Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)Population aged 18 to 64)100
18
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Percent Female for the Older Population by Age 2014 and 2060
2014 2060
66
56
53
57
54
51
54
60
The percentage of the older population that is female is projected to decrease slightly particularly for those 75 and over
65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Note The scale begins at 50 percent rather than zero
19
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Percent Minority 2014 to 2060 Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over White alone population 56
38 40
45
49
53
22 24
28
34
40
45
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
20
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
India
Indonesia
China
Russia
United States
Poland
Ukraine
Canada
United Kingdom
Spain
France
Italy
Germany
Japan
World
Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries 2014 and 2050
2014 2050
World
Japan
6
7
10
13
15
15
16
17
18
18
18
21
21
8
26
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
United Kingdom Developed
Canada Countries Ukraine
Poland
United States
Russia
China Largest
Indonesia Developing Countries India 15
19
27
26
22
32
29
26
24
31
26
31
30
17
21
40
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Summary
The US population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 and 2060 growing more slowly in future decades than in the recent past By 2060 nearly one-in-five of the nationrsquos
total population is projected to be foreign born
22
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Summary (continued) The older population is projected to more
than double growing from 46 million in 2014 to 98 million in 2060 Growth in the older population will be driven
by the aging of the baby boomers over the next two decades By 2030 one in five people living in the United States will
be 65 years or older
23
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Summary (continued) Despite the increase in the share of the US
population that is in the older ages the nation is projected to remain one of the youngest developed countries in the world
24
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
25
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Contact Information
Jennifer Ortman
jennifermortmancensusgov
Projections Branch
(301) 763-2428
httpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
26
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Big Trends That Are Reshaping Key US Communities
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
Increasing number of people of many different races ethnic groups andnationalities in US make country a hellip
Better place 57
Worse place 8
Doesnt make difference
34
Source Pew Research Center survey of US adults conducted Aug 27-Oct 4 2015
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 29
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Big Trends among US Hispanics
US Latino population growth dispersion slowing US births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic population growth not immigration Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
Half of US-born Latinos are under age 19 A growing share of Latinos live in English only households Record number of young Latinos are attending college
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
US Hispanic Population Reaches New High
In millions
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
Average annual growth rate
Note The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 Source Pew Research Center tabulations of US Census Bureau population estimates ldquoUS Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recessionrdquo
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
among Hispanics
Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer SilentGreatest than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older)
US born 9 347 27 14
Foreign 24 7born 6 26 37
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
among Hispanics
32 35
48
50
12 1
Do not speak English
Speak English less than very well
35 3736
19 22 12 95
27 Speak 37 English 28 very well
Speak only 20 20 16 English at home
Proficient in English
Silent Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest
5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) Note Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home If they answer yes they are asked how well they speak English Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) ldquoThe Nationrsquos Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youthrdquo
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Big Trends among Asian Americans
Asian Americans are diverse Asian community is countryrsquos fastest growing group
Among Asian American adults three-quarters are immigrants Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving population growth not births
Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
US Asian Groups 2013
Population in thousands
Chinese Filipino
Indian Vietnamese
Korean Japanese
Pakistani Cambodian
Hmong Thai
Laotian Bangladeshi
Burmese Indonesian
Nepalese Sri Lankan
Bhutanese Malaysian Mongolian
of Asians
4520 239 3649 193
3461 183 1907 101
1769 94 1447 76
481 25 323 17 286 15 275 15 261
170 09 14
136 07 112 06 99 05 54 32 02
03
32 02 18 01
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
of the Asian-American population that is hellip 100
50
0
61 52 50 44 47
38
20 12 10 8
34
28 30 37 24 28
23 24 24 24
3 17 18 19
18 22
22 20 20 19 Filipino
Chinese
Japanese
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
14657
19659
114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1539
3500
6909
11899
Asian-American population (alone and in combination) in thousands
1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2014
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
Sources of population change from 2000-2013 in millions
US births Immigration
126
31 44
71
Asians Hispanics
Source Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity
of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity
277257
171
94
White Black Hispanic Asian
Source Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Big Trends among Immigrants
US immigrant population is growing ndash in number and share Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants Most immigrants are in the US legally US unauthorized immigrant population has stabilized
Immigrants from Asia are better educated than immigrants from Mexico or Central America
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
US Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015 Projected to be 782 Million in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
US Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
Source Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890 Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955 Pew Research Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
foreign born by county 2010-2014
Source American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 44
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
2013
Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
of immigrants arriving to the US in each year who are hellip
60
20
30
40
50
Asian
Hispanic
10
0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014
Note Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population excluding group quarters 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan 1-Apr 1 2014 Race and ethnicity based on self-reports Asians include only non-Hispanics Hispanics are of any race
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS)
December 9 2016 wwwpewresearchorg 45
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
Source For 1965-2015 Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data for 1840-1919 Office of Immigration Statistics Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2008 Table 2
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the US Census Bureau ldquoStatistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States 1850-2000rdquo
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
Source Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
Source Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to 2014 American Community Survey
wwwpewresearchorg 49
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
wwwpewresearchorg 50
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants by Race and Ethnicity 2010
Less than College College +
35 65Asian
42 58White
62 38Black
84 16Hispanic
Source Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Contact Information
Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research
mlopezpewresearchorg
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Mapping Americarsquos Futures The Growing Diversity of Diversity
in the United States
Rolf Pendall PhD Co-director Metropolitan Housing amp Communities Policy Center
Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
December 6 2016
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Overview
Methods How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide
insights about local population change
Looking toward 2030 Seniors are growing everywhere but non-seniors arenrsquot
Non-whites are growing everywhere but white non-Hispanics arenrsquot
The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population landscape remains ldquodiversely diverserdquo
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
56
How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
US states by life expectancy at birth 2005
Net migration of people born 1976-95 from 2000-15
Sources life expectancy original data from Measure of Americaldquo 2008-09 map by Tasty Cakes CC-BY-30 httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_states_by_life_exp ectancysvg Teen birth rates Centers for Disease Control Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 2011pdf available at httpscommonswikimediaorgwikiFileUS_teen_birth_rates_b y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009png Migration US Census 2000 American Community Survey 2015 via Steven Ruggles Katie Genadek Ronald Goeken Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series Version 60 [Machine-readable database] Minneapolis University of Minnesota 2015
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
Note Images from on-line tool still are based on the first version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures which uses 2012 US Census Bureau projections An updated version of Mapping Americarsquos Futures will be released in 2017
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesm apping-americas-futures
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
All the data are freely downloadable
httpappsurbanorgfeaturesmapping-americas-futures
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
63
What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and
racialethnic diversity across the US
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
Source Mapping Americarsquos Futures 82015 vintage all average scenario
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
74
Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
The US is aging everywherehellip But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration especially from
abroad while others are markedly older because more young people have moved out than in
And apart from a few rural areas over two-thirds of residents will still be under 65 making the future one of age diversity
The US is getting more racially and ethnically diversehellip But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying
faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages of seniors
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
Jennifer Ortman US Census Bureau Mark Lopez Pew Research Center Rolf Pendall Urban Institute
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-
THE CHANGING CONSUMER
DEMOGRAPHICS An FTC Workshop - December 6 2016
- Slide Number 1
- Welcome
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Changing Demographics of the US Population
- Slide Number 5
- Overview
- What data do we produce
- What data do we produce
- Why do we produce projections
- How are estimates different from projections
- Making National Projections
- 2014 National Projections
- Slide Number 13
- Slide Number 14
- Slide Number 15
- Slide Number 16
- Slide Number 17
- Slide Number 18
- Slide Number 19
- Slide Number 20
- Slide Number 21
- Summary
- Summary (continued)
- Summary (continued)
- Accessing Projections Datahttpwwwcensusgovtopicspopulationpopulation-projectionshtml
- Contact Information
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 28
- Most Say Racial Ethnic Diversity Makes the US a Better Place to Live
- Big Trends among US Hispanics
- Slide Number 31
- US Hispanic Population Growth Slows Sharply Since 2007
- Nearly Three-Quarters of US-born Latinos are Millennialsmdashor Younger
- About Three-Quarters of Hispanic Millennials are Proficient in English
- Big Trends among Asian Americans
- US Asian Groups 2013
- A Century of Change for Three of the Nationrsquos Oldest Asian Origin Groups
- US Asian Population Grew 65 Since 2000
- Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
- Slide Number 40
- Big Trends among Immigrants
- Slide Number 42
- Slide Number 43
- Highest share of immigrants in Southwest large cities
- Among new immigrant arrivals Asians outnumber Hispanics
- Latin American Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
- US foreign-born population includes variety of groups
- US Unauthorized immigrant population stable since 2009
- Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrantsby Race and Ethnicity 2010
- Slide Number 52
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Mapping Americarsquos FuturesThe Growing Diversity of Diversity in the United States
- Overview
- How Mapping Americarsquos Futures works
- We start with the Census Bureaursquos mid-range population projectionshellip
- hellipthen assess variations in county and state age- and race-specific birth deaths and net migration (2000s)
- Accounting for variations in birth death and migration we distribute Census projections to counties aggregating to 740 ldquocommuting zonesrdquo
- We then vary our assumptions about birth death and migration rates to create 27 scenarioshellip
- hellipso users can explore the impact of changing assumptions on population change
- All the data are freely downloadable
- What the latest update of Mapping Americarsquos Futures suggests about aging and racialethnic diversity across the US
- Variation in growth rates with Midwest amp rural loss gains in coastal areas Sunbelt and the Rockies
- A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-25M new residents between 2015 and 2030
- Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30 often by over 50 sometimes more than doubling
- But under-65 population will decline or grow very little in large swaths of the US
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by the year 2030
- Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas with older predominantly Hispanic populations
- Broad growth in the (small) ldquoother non-Hispanicrdquo populationmdashmany complex reasons
- Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX FL ATL Charlotte and rural areas with few black residents
- White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of the US from 2015 to 2030
- Resulting in great diversity in the percent white non-Hispanic by 2030
- Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity
- THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS OF US CONSUMERS
- Slide Number 76
-