Mega-trends in Advanced Automotive Metals …..

Mega-trends in T3 Opportunities

Doug RichmanKaiser Aluminum

Aluminum Association - Automotive Transportation Group (ATG)

ALUMINUM TRANSPORTATION GROUP (ATG)

DISCUSSION AGENDA

Trends - Automotive Metals

T3 Opportunities

Talent, Talent, Talent!Technology

Tooling

.ORG

AUTOMOTIVE ALUMINUM

50 YEARS OF GROWTH

This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from Ducker Worldwide LLC.Ducker Worldwide | 1250 Maplelawn Drive | Troy , MI 48084 | www.ducker.com | info@ducker.com

This Report Has Been Prepared Solely For :

ALUMINUM CONTENT IN NORTH AMERICAN LIGHT VEHICLES 2016 TO 2028Draft Pre-Final ReportApril 2017

1975-2025 (28): 50 YEARS OF ALUMINUM GROWTH

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Wheels

HOODS

Bumpers

Heads

Blocks

Po

un

ds

Pe

r V

eh

icle

(P

PV

)

Heat Exchangers

Sheet, Castings,Extrusions

Source: Ducker Worldwide

DOORS &BODY-IN- WHITE

394 lbs.

500-565 lbs.

AUTOMOTIVE MATERIAL DISTRIBUTION –

2015:2025 (28)

Mild Steel

12%

HSLA

7%

AHSS

11%

Other Steel

16%

Flat Rolled Al

5%Ext Al

1%Cast Str Al

2%

Cast Al

9%

Iron

8%

Copper

1%

Other Metals

3%

Non Metallics

25%

2025 (28)

Aluminum

16%

Aluminum

10%3835 lbs. 3565 lbs.

Source: Ducker

7% Mass Reduction

Mild Steel

17%

BH & HS Steel

(HSLA)

14%

AHSS

7%

All Other Steel

16%

Flat Rolled

Aluminum

2%

Aluminum

Profiles

0%

Structural

Alumium

Castings

1%

All Other

Aluminum

8%

Iron

8%

Copper

1%

Other Metals

3%

Non Metallics

23%

2015

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ALUMINUM FABRICATION

OPPORTUNITIES

IN

MICHIGAN

AUTOMOTIVE ALUMINUM WROUGHT PRODUCTS –

2012:2025 (SHEET, EXTRUSIONS)

Source: Ducker

2.65 5.62 6.93 8.73 10.3 16.3

65

130

180

249

0

50

100

150

200

250

1996 1999 2002 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2025

Po

un

ds p

er

Veh

icle

Body, Bumper and Closures

Predominantly:

C, D, E, SUV, Truck

Opportunity: 3 B Lbs.

MMV BODY-IN-WHITE CONTENT -SHEET, EXTRUSIONS, CASTINGS

Aluminum by 2025: Hoods – 90 %

Doors – 60%

Bumpers – 60%

ALUMINUM AUTO BODY CONTENT

Closures

Deck

Door Outer

Door Outer

FendersClosure inners

Hood

WHAT MICHIGAN MANUFACTURERS

“NEED TO KNOW”

• Aluminum Fabrication - Significant Growth OpportunitiesShortage Today

• Aluminum Fabrication is Different ….. Not DifficultFear of the Unknown

Underestimate Differences

• Utilize Existing Major EquipmentMinimal capital expense

• Tooling - CriticalAccommodations for Aluminum

Expertise Available in MarketTooling / Equipment vendors

Aluminum Companies

Aluminum Association Resources

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T3: TECHNOLOGY

TOOLING

TALENT

AUTO INDUSTRY – CORE COMPETITIVE DEMAND

Continuous Improvement - Critical for SurvivalTechnologyMaterialsDesignsProcesses…….

History – 120 years

Technology Advancement – Unpresented Accelerating

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T3: TALENT

TECHNOLOGY

TOOLING

TALENT (PEOPLE) - THE CRITICAL RESOURCE

Industry Progress – ConstrainedLack of human resources - all levelsAcute since the recovery - Long Term Problem

What is needed now (and always)Appropriately educated and trained people – all levels

Managers, Engineers, Scientists, Software DevelopersTechnicians, Mechanics, Model Makers, Tool and Die MakersDesigners, Technical Writers, …Maintenance Technicians, PLC Programmers, Process EngineersProduction Control and Scheduling Technicians, …QC Tech, Lab Tech, ….…….

CAAT - CENTER FOR ADVANCED AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY

CAAT - Center

Macomb Community College, Wayne State University

National Science Foundation Grant – 2010 (expires 2017)

Regional Advanced Technological Education (ATE) Center

Focus: two-year colleges, cultivating partnerships:

Across academic institutions

Between academic institutions and employers

Key role: curriculum development, dissemination

17

PURPOSE OF CAAT

CAAT Objective:

Preparation of skilled technicians for the automotive industry

Emphasis on rapidly advancing technologies:

Connected and automated vehicles

Vehicle light-weighting

Vehicle electrification: HEV, PEV, EV

Alternative Fuel Vehicles: Advanced Clean Diesel, CNG, LPG, H2 Fuel Cells

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T3: TALENT

TECHNOLOGY

TOOLING