the 192 different election campaigns for the conservative party that almost spoilt labour’s party...

The 192 different election campaigns for the Conservative Party that almost spoilt Labour’s party

Entry to the JICREG Awards 2005

2 making media make a difference

Overview

This is the story of how we persuaded the Conservative Party to increase their spend in local press from 3% in the 2001 General Election to 43% in 2005

It is a well known fact that General Elections are won in marginal seats and determined by a few people ‘the floating voters’

However this is a very difficult strategy to implement:Hundreds of local constituencies to targetOften geographically disparate (especially for the Conservatives who have a higher rural vote)Many different messages required to sway voting intentions

For this reason political party campaigns tend to spend their money across national newspapers and outdoor: in 2001 the Conservatives and Labour both spent 30% of their budgets at a local level in any local media.

In 2005 we found a way of understanding floating voters by constituency and then used JICREG and other mapping systems to construct 192 local media campaigns with locally tailored messages to each of our 192 target seats

This increased their spend in local media to 80% in 2005


General Election 2005

BackgroundThe UK is split into 646 constituenciesIn order to gain a majority in Parliament and form the government, a party must win a minimum of 324 seats – giving it a majority of 1 seat

The ObjectiveTo turn over the Labour Party’s majority of 167 seats from the 2001 General ElectionTo protect the seats currently held by the Conservative PartyTo increase the number of seats, and share of the vote held by the Conservative Party

166

413

5228

0

100

200

300

400

500

ConsLabLibOther

40.7%

18.3%

9.3%

31.7%

Cons

Lab

Lib

Other

SeatsTotal of 659 Seats

Party share of vote

2001 General Election Result

A huge task!


Our Approach

To focus the campaign in 192 of the 646 constituencies (29.7% of the UK) with strong, sustained local activity

Fighting the battle where it will be won

Identifying 167 seats that would require the lowest swing from Labour or the Liberal Democrats, to the Conservatives

Protect 25 seats currently held by the Conservatives that are most vulnerable to other parties – i.e. where the Conservatives hold a slim majority


How our approach was different

Producing 192 individual media plans – one for each target constituency with individually tailored creative

Traditionally, political parties have predominantly used national media

The incumbent agency, recommended the use of a national approach – siting a local approach as too expensive, too complicated, and too time consuming


First ThirdSeat Swing %

We prioritised the 192 constituencies

Bottom ThirdSeat Swing %

Second ThirdSeat Swing % Seat Swing %

167 New Target Seats 25 currentMajority Increase

Source: Electoral commission/MPG profiles

Wrekin -4.32Wolverhampton South West -4.26Finchley and Golders Green -4.25Ribble South -4.11Yeovil -4.08Hemel Hempstead -4.08Putney -4.04Gloucester -4.02Bristol West -4.01Preseli Pembrokeshire -4.01Hove -3.78Scarborough & Whitby -3.77Dartford -3.69Southport -3.65Shrewsbury & Atcham -3.59Peterborough -3.58Redditch -3.35Calder Valley -3.26Eastleigh -3.21Devon North -3.03Enfield North -3.00Harwich -2.70Gillingham -2.69Rugby & Kenilworth -2.67I lford North -2.63Teignbridge -2.54Romsey -2.45Newbury -2.38Wellingborough -2.31Forest of Dean -2.30Thanet South -2.27Hammersmith & Fulham -2.25Selby -2.13Hornchurch -2.08Milton Keynes North East -1.94Ludlow -1.89Bexleyheath & Crayford -1.82Clwyd West -1.61Shipley -1.55Wyre Forest -1.54Welwyn Hatfield -1.40Hereford -1.08Devon West and Torridge -1.07Brecon & Radnorshire -1.00Northampton South -0.87Somerton & Frome -0.63Kettering -0.62Guildford -0.56Lancaster & Wyre -0.46Dorset Mid & Poole North -0.44Monmouth -0.43Norfolk North -0.43Weston-Super-Mare -0.36Braintree -0.36Dorset South -0.17Cheadle -0.04

Blackpool North & Fleetwood -6.72Bolton West -6.69Cleethorpes -6.62Enfield Southgate -6.62Harrow West -6.60Batley & Spen -6.57Worcester -6.52Harlow -6.52Norwich North -6.43Reading East -6.41Gedling -6.39Colchester -6.35Wirral South -6.34Rossendale & Darwen -6.31Cheltenham -6.28Brighton Kemptown -6.28Ynys Mon -6.25Pudsey -6.23Birmingham Edgbaston -6.22Leeds North West -6.17Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South -6.15Morecambe & Lunesdale -6.11Corby -6.04Broxtowe -5.99Watford -5.99Dover -5.78Tamworth -5.71Stafford -5.67Great Yarmouth -5.65Carshalton & Wallington -5.60Gravesham -5.57Warwick & Leamington -5.56Chatham & Aylesford -5.46Bradford West -5.43Sutton & Cheam -5.42Pendle -5.38Hastings & Rye -5.23Burton -5.22Wansdyke -5.21Vale of Glamorgan -5.20Cornwall South East -5.19Saint Albans -5.10Richmond Park -5.05Wirral West -4.98Colne Valley -4.94Medway -4.90Falmouth & Camborne -4.83Brigg & Goole -4.82Stourbridge -4.77High Peak -4.66Sittingbourne & Sheppey -4.63Keighley -4.62Stroud -4.57Wimbledon -4.55Elmet -4.54Croydon Central -4.34

Taunton 0.21Orpington 0.26Boston & Skegness 0.64Beverley & Holderness 0.84Surrey South West 0.87Bedfordshire South West 0.88Basingstoke 0.92Castle Point 1.24Dorset West 1.43Upminster 1.83Haltemprice & Howden 2.17Isle of Wight 2.23Canterbury 2.29Eastbourne 2.41Bury St Edmunds 2.49Bosworth 2.53Wells 2.72Hexham 2.98Uxbridge 3.14Chipping Barnet 3.18Westmorland & Lonsdale 3.28Gosport 3.29Altrincham & Sale West 3.38Norfolk North West 3.40Wycombe 3.52

Eltham -10.35Norwich South -10.35Coventry South -10.32Stockton South -10.28Sherwood -10.21Saint Ives -10.20Dewsbury -10.16Stevenage -10.09Birmingham Hall Green -10.05Gower -9.90Tynemouth -9.88Wakefield -9.64Plymouth Sutton -9.62Swindon North -9.57Northampton North -9.51Basildon -9.47Ceredigion -9.41Dudley South -9.38Halesowen & Rowley Regis -9.37Cornwall North -9.11Hendon -9.08Waveney -9.07Leicestershire North West -9.06Conwy -9.05Leeds North East -8.91Oxford West and Abingdon -8.91Vale of Clwyd -8.91Northavon -8.86Dudley North -8.82Chorley -8.80Nuneaton -8.70Crawley -8.56Swindon South -8.46Carlisle -8.17Winchester -8.14Warrington South -8.12Amber Valley -8.12Truro & St Austell -8.02Derby North -7.92Portsmouth South -7.77Milton Keynes South West -7.69Chester, City of -7.68Twickenham -7.66Halifax -7.59Bedford -7.59Derbyshire South -7.56Bury North -7.29Loughborough -7.21Copeland -7.14Erewash -7.13Cardiff North -7.13Torbay -7.05Portsmouth North -6.96Battersea -6.86Staffordshire Moorlands -6.84


We quantified the potential of local press on a national scale

N E Scotland

Central Scotland

Border

N East

NW

Yorkshire

Wales & West

Central

E. England

SouthSW

London

N E Scotland

Central Scotland

Border

N East

NW

Yorkshire

Wales & West

Central

E. England

SouthSW

London

Key50%+ 40-49% 30–39% 20–29% < 20%

Coverage Adults 18+

Regional Press National Press

Outside London & South East, Regional Press has much greater penetration than National Press – this is even more defined on a micro-constituency level

Source. NRS April 2003-March 2004: National press – Mail, Express, Guardian & Times


We then used JICREG to map all local papers in every 192 constituencies to work out local press’ coverage in area

Chester

A41

A49

A49

A5

A483

A534A534

A534A5156

A5156

A534

A495

A483

A483

A525A525

A534

A500

A51

A5020

A557

A5268

A5116

A5116A56

A483

A51

A54

A51

A41

A41A5117

A550

A533A56

A556A556

A55

A56

A5117

A41

A550

A556

A530

A5268

A533

A49

A49

A494

A55

A55

A54

A55

M56

M56

M6

M53

M53

M56M56

M53

Barnton

Cuddington

Frodsham

Gresford

Haslington

Haw arden

HelsbyHolyw ell

Llangollen

Llay

Middlew ich

Mold

Northop

Penycae

Rhosllanerchrugog

Ruabon

Shavington

Weaverham

Whitchurch

Willaston

Buckley

Connah's Quay

Flint

Heswall

Nantwich

Neston

Northwich

Winsford

Wrexham

Chester

Crewe

Ellesmere Port

Chester & District Standard

Chester Chronicle

Chester Mail

CHESTER


We then looked at 192 different local press vs national press comparisons: example in Chester

Local Press Option in Chester

2 titles used (in constituency readership - JICREG)

Chester Mail 40,186Daily Post (NW) 3,230Total Chester coverage43,416

Equivalent National Press Option In Chester

We used JICREG readership data to work out the readership of these titles in the Chester constituency

4 titles used:Daily Telegraph 3,074Daily Express 3,989Daily Mail 7,951The Sun 8,161Total Chester coverage 23,175

Local press deliver twice the coverage of an equivalent national press schedule


We then needed to compare the cost of local vs national across

each 192 constituencies

Local Press Option in Chester

2 titles used (in constituency readership - JICREG)

Chester Mail 40,186Daily Post (NW) 3,230Total Chester coverage 43,416

But Daily Post NW also covered the constituencies of:

Wirral 16,990Chorley 104Southport 1,144Chester 3,230Total 21,468

Therefore Chester represented 15% of the Daily Post total readership

Adult CPT for Full Page Mono = £30

Equivalent National Press Option In Chester

We used JICREG readership data to work out the readership of these titles in the Chester constituency

4 titles used:Daily Telegraph 3,074Daily Express 3,989Daily Mail 7,951The Sun 8,161Total 23,175

With then divided the total cost of this schedule by 192 to get Chester’s proportion of the national press investment

Adult CPT in Chester for Full Page Mono = £34

Local press 12% less expensive in Chester than equivalent national press schedule


We then used JICREG to filter all our individual title selections – weighted by priority

1. Coverage by Constituency

2. Overspill into other target constituencies e.g from Chester to the Wirral, Chorley & Southport

4. Advertising to editorial ratio

5. Paid for vs free

Source: JICREG


A5111

A6514

A6514

A60

A610

A610

A52

A614

A6

A52A52

A52

A52

M1

M1

M1

Borrow ash

Breaston

Codnor

Kilburn

Ockbrook

Ruddington

Beeston

EastwoodHeanor

Hucknall

Ilkeston

Long Eaton

Ripley

StaplefordWest Bridgford

Nottingham

Derby Evening Telegraph

Nottingham EvePost

Eastwood & KimberleyAdvertiser

Ilkeston & Ripley Trader

Long Eaton Advertiser

Long Eaton Trader

Nottingham Recorder

Nottingham Topper

Sunday Mercury

Paid for evening titleCirculation in the area

is 116Area Coverage 0.33%

Paid for evening titleCirculation in the area

is 9,962Area Coverage 30.34%Paid for weekly title

Circulation in the area is 2,058

Area Coverage 6.17%

Free weekly titleCirculation in the area

is 11,053Area Coverage 18.88%

Paid for weekly titleCirculation in the area








Paid for titleCirculation in the area


Nottingham Showcase

Illkeston Savoy

Nottingham Savoy

Nottingham Screen Room

Nottingham Royal Centre

Nottingham Broadway

Stapleford – 5 x 48 Sheets

Beeston – 5 x 48 sheets

Nottingham – 5 x 48 sheets

We then added all the poster sites and cinema complexes to

all our maps


Giving us an example constituency campaign

Broxtowe

7 x 48-Sheets&

3 x 6-Sheets6 x 48-Sheets

8 x 48-Sheets&

3 x 6-Sheets

11 x 48-Sheets&

4 x 6-Sheets

11 x 48-Sheets&

4 x 6-Sheets

12 x 48-Sheets&

6 x 6-Sheets

15 x 48-Sheets&

4 x 6-Sheets

F2 Feb F2 MayB2 AprF2 AprB2 MarF2 MarB2 Feb

FullPageMono

FullPageMono

FullPageMono

FullPageMono

FullPageMono

FullPageMono

Nottingham Savoy80 seconds

3 Weeks

Out

door

RegionalPress

Cinema

Derby Evening TelegraphEastwood & Kimberley AdvertiserLong Eaton TraderNottingham & Long Eaton TopperNottingham Evening PostNottingham Recorder

The same templateDifferent use of outdoor, regional press, and cinema


We understood that voters vote on local and national issues in General Elections and tailored all our copy to the local area


The result was a regional press campaign of

unprecedented Scale

The scale of this regional press campaign was unprecedented for a political party – who usually use national media

Using 270 titles in 6 weekly bursts with 1,324 individual pieces of copy

Providing individual copy for every newspaper, using localised statistics on Tax, Crime, Health, and Asylum – relevant to each individual constituency


2005 General Election Result

At the 2001 election Labour had 9% lead in the share of the vote: at the 2005 election this was reduced to 2.9%

The most accurate opinion poll, NOP, showed a shift from a 12% gap pre-election to 3% at close.

Labour’s majority of 167 seats was reduced to 67 seats

The Conservatives won 450,000 extra votes, whilst Labour lost 1.2m

The swing from Labour to Conservative was 50% higher in our 192 target seats than nationally

The supposed resurgence in the Lib Dem vote actually declined in our 192 seats with the Tory’s stealing 5 seats from the Lib Dems

the 192 different election campaigns for the conservative party that almost spoilt labour’s party...

Documents

local media campaigns

national media

local approach

conservative party seats

seats party share of

marginal seats

number of seats

new target seats