texas economic forecast: 2016 update

Creative Investment Research, Inc.

Texas Economic Forecast April 2016 Update

It’s time…

Confidential. Not for reproduction or distribution.Copyright, Creative Investment Research, Inc. 2016

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The Texas Economy

Economic conditions in Texas are strong. Our research indicates that the economic recovery is finally reaching the difficult to reach populations, those hardest hit by the crisis to begin with. We forecast that:

• The Fed will not raise rates in June;• Britain will not exit the EU.

Assuming these twin conditions, the Texas economy will remain solid until the end of Obama’s term;


General Texas Trends

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Employment remains stable, adding to disposable income.

Activity in the nonfinancial service sector, the sector with the largest concentration of Black Texas firms, has increased.

Construction is also strong relative to the rest of the US.

The decline in lending activity is a drag on the forecast, as are low oil and commodity prices.

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Forecast


For Texas overall, employment in the services sector remains strong, with an uptick in manufacturing adding to the positive outlook for employment.

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Pretty good, right?

”But, what is the forecast for Black folks?”


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Black Population Growth Strong

Confidential. Not for reproduction or distribution. Copyright, Creative Investment Research, Inc. 2016

Continued migration from the East means attention should be placed on encouraging migration from poorer, harder hit neighboring regions.

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Black Household Income OK


Black income lower east of the state, where population numbers are higher. Opportunity to have significant impact, however.

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Texas Black Business Sectors

Fortunately, not many Black firms in the hardest hit sector, Natural Resources and Mining


Chart below: Change in Employment for Texas, by Industry, May 2015 to April, 2016. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Chart: right Distribution of Black Businesses in Texas, by Industry. Source: Survey of Texas Black-Owned Businesses, Bureau of Business Research at The University of Texas at Austin, June, 2014.

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For further information

Confidential.Copyright, Creative Investment Research, Inc. 2016

Creative Investment Research, Inc.William Michael Cunningham

[email protected]@creativeinvest.com

202-455-0430

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texas economic forecast: 2016 update

Economy & Finance