Terrestrial Scoping Workshop26 – 28 April 2004

Westmark Hotel, Fairbanks, AK

ARCN Conceptual Modeling

Good conceptual models for I&M Networks …

• Formalize current understanding of system components, processes, and dynamics

• Lead to a shared understanding

• Identify linkages, especially across disciplinary boundaries

• Clearly identify important interactions and feedbacks

• Show links between vital signs and processes

Why bother with conceptual models?• Ecosystems are complex

• Monitoring programs have many components

• Ecological understanding is limited

• Opportunities for mis-understanding are unlimited

Conceptual models enhance communication

• Between scientists and managers

• With the general public

• Among scientists and program staff

Match model structure to audience and need

What you want to communicate Model type

General system traits Generalized model – picture or box & arrow

System dynamics State & transition

Mechanistic diagram

Picture diagram

Links & feedbacks Mechanistic diagram

Picture diagram

Stressor – vital sign links EPA stressor diagram

ARCN Conceptual Modeling

• Spatial Scale?

• Temporal Scale?

• Ecological Scale (ecosystem, community, landscape, population, etc…)?

• Natural vs. Anthropogenic?

• Driver vs. Stressor vs. Ecosystem Response (feedbacks)?

• Bottom-up or Top-down?

• Level of complexity (Audience- managers, public, scientific community?)

• Simple or complex? (2 or 3 dimensions)

• Interactive?

• Predictive or just thought provoking and informative?

• Based on real time data or theoretical?

Stressor/ Driver Models

Global Drivers/ StressorsGlobal Drivers/ Stressors

• Population Increase• Tropical Forest Destruction; Peatland Loss• Increase in Greenhouse Gases (esp. CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, and CFCs)• Fossil fuel consumption• Industrial Expansion in Developing Nations• Empowerment of Indigenous People• Change in Education and Expectation• Contaminant Regulations

• Persistent Organic Pollutants (dioxin, PCB’s)• Heavy Metals• Mercury• Arctic Haze• Radioactive fallout (Chernobyl, Cesium, Nuclear testing)• Acid Rain (N, S)• Fertilization Effects (N)

Circumpolar Drivers/ Stressors

Sea Ice↓ Thickness↓ Extent

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

↑ Russian River Discharge

Desalinization of the AO

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

Increased maritime effect∆ Wind speed/ pattern∆ Cloud Cover∆ Precipitation

∆ Snowmelt dynamics∆ Permafrost/ Active Layer Warming

↑ Circumpolar Forest Fires

↑ Polar Vortex↑ Open Water↓ Albedo

in Peatland Regime

Glacier melt

SnowcoverPermafrost MeltingActive Layer WarmingThermokarst Formation HydrologyVegetation ChangesExotic SpeciesFire RegimeAlbedo EffectsNet Carbon Sink/ Source Nutrient Cycling

Changes in biogeochemical cyclingChange in marine-life

Change in Coastal/ Estuarine ZoneChange in Coastal Subsistence Activities

Destruction of Yedoma (Receding Coastline)

Change in Inland Subsistence Activities

Caribou/ Fish Range, Population, Migration

Change in Invertebrate Distribution & Biomass

Regional Drivers/ Stressors

Local Drivers/ Stressors and Possible Ecosystem Responses(Within or Adjacent to Park Boundaries)

North Slope Oil and Gas Development• Carbon (smoke, particulates, air quality)• Ice roads• Spills (land and rivers)• Habitat degradation/ fragmentation• Human development/ population increase• Gravel mining• Road construction• Increase in public access• Light pollution/ noise

Possible ecosystem responses:• Increase or Decrease in Biological Diversity• Population/ Genetic/ Demographic Changes• Change in Community Dynamics/ Foodweb Structure• Change in Ecosystem Structure/ Function/ Stability• Change in Disturbance Regime• Biogeographic Changes ( Migration Pattern) • Changes in human use (eg. subsistence patterns)• Physical shifts (hydrology, thermokarst)• Shift in Watershed Dynamics• Feedbacks (albedo effects)

Seaborne pollution• Ocean Dumping • Accidental Spills• Radioactive Wastes

Mining Activities• Current Mining (e.g. Red Dog)• Past Mining (hazmat sites)• Future Mining Activities

Villages and Inholdings • Water Quality/ /Waste• Transportation (air, water)• Harvest• Site Development

Subsistence Activities• Consumptive Use of Plants & Animals• Snow machine use• Camp sites/ Instillations• Trespass/ Illegal Harvest• Reindeer Herding

Sport and Recreation• Consumptive Use of Plants & Animals• Animal Displacement• Technical Climbing• Camp Sites/ Instillations• Establishment of Trails/ Facilities• Trespass/ Illegal Harvest• Water, Land & Air Travel

Administrative Activities• Consumptive Use of Plants & Animals• Animal Displacement• Noise• Aircraft/ airstrips• Establishment of trails/ facilities• Humans as vectors for disease/ exotics

Transportation Corridors• Air transportation• Proposed Roads (RS2477)• Ice Roads• Water transportation (marine, river)• Snow Machine/ Mushing Trails

Conceptual Ecosystem Models

• Let’s take a stab at one or several !!!

• Work in progress for ARCN

Climate

Warmer (increased seasonality)

Warmer (decreased seasonality)

Cooler (decreased seasonality)

Cooler (increased seasonality)

Thawed Active Layer/ Depth-Duration

Glacier Mass Balance

Snow Duration

Summer Winter

Sea and Lake Ice Duration

Precipitation Quantity

Precipitation As Snow

Growing Season Duration

+-

+-

+

-+

-

+-

?-+

?

+-

+-

+-

+-

+-

+-

+-

Sea IceChange Maritime

effect

Increased Seasonal Variation

Cloud Cover Change

Warmer annual temperature

Cooler summers

Climate Change

Soil temperatureSoil temperature

Active layer depth

Nutrient availability

Nutrient uptake

ShadeSnow cover

Plant Species Plant Species CompositionComposition

FireFire

Seed germination &establishment

Seed Seed germination &germination &establishmentestablishment

Pollen productionPollen production

Dispersal VectorsDispersal Vectors(Wind and Animal)(Wind and Animal)

Seed productionSeed production

Seed dispersalSeed dispersal

HerbivoryHerbivory

Vegetative Vegetative GrowthGrowth

Treeline Modification

Root Root growthgrowth

Sea IceChange Maritime

effect

Increased Seasonal Variation

Cloud Cover Change

Warmer annual temperature

Cooler summers

Climate Change

Soil temperatureSoil temperature

Active layer depth

Nutrient availability

Nutrient uptake

ShadeSnow cover

Plant Species Plant Species CompositionComposition

FireFire

Seed germination &establishment

Seed Seed germination &germination &establishmentestablishment

Pollen productionPollen production

Dispersal VectorsDispersal Vectors(Wind and Animal)(Wind and Animal)

Seed productionSeed production

Seed dispersalSeed dispersal

HerbivoryHerbivory

Vegetative Vegetative GrowthGrowth

Treeline Modification

Root Root growthgrowth

Biomechanics of Treeline Modification in Relation to Climate Change

(From Chapin et al. 2000)

Mechanisms by which species interactions affect ecosystem processes

Ecosystem Consequences

•Cumulative effects of multiple stressors•Changes in species composition and

population size•Decrease in ecosystem integrity•Replacement of sevnsitive with

more tolerant species• Extermination

of species

Consequences to Human and Subsistence Lifestyles

Long distance

Sho

rt distance

Alteration of: -Physiological integrity-Reproductive viability -Immunity to disease-Behavior

Pollutants

Consequences to humansHuman health

Point sources Non-point sources

Circulation andDeposition

WetDeposition

Geophysical Effects

Accumulation in ecosystem

Dry deposition

Alteration of: geochemicalcyles (i.e. nutrient, carbon,climatologic, hydrologic)

Health hazards

Decline in foodquality and

quantity

Poor airquality

Biological Effects

Alteredclimate

MobilizationMobilization

Pathways and Ecosystem-level Consequences of Air Toxic Pollutants

22

11

33

66

99 1010

55

44

77

Potential Vectors for Exotic Species

1 Visitation at Serpentine Hot Springs2 Transport via Red Dog Mine Port 3 Camping along Noatak and Kobuk Rivers4 Hunting and floating along length of Noatak River5 Migration of exotic plants along river corridors6 Popular landing areas around Kobuk Sand Dunes7 Potential new road corridors8 ATV trails out of Anaktuvik Pass or off Dalton Highway9 Backpacking entry points along Dalton Highway