terna presentation wsgreenpeace armani · source: terna. data on operation of the italian power...

Impact of Renewable generation

ROME, October15th 2014

Workshop Greenpeace - Terna "Power30"

Index

- Innovative Solutions Implemented

- Main changes in the last years• From liberalization to nowadays• Investments in generation• Demand and Renewable trends• Curtailments of wind and solar plants

- Grid development in South Italy

- New challenges

2

IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION ROME, October 15th 2014

Main changes in the last yearsFrom liberalization to nowadays

Transmission Grid became the key factorfor new generation utilization

• Centralized planning of the system• Generation and Grid

• Development and Operation

• Lack of generation in respect of Demand• Big import from abroad• National generation mainly from Thermal

power plants, powered oil

• Stable growth of the Demand

• Liberalization of generation

• Investments in generation• New Thermo power plants (most in CCGT

technology): +22.000 MW• Renewable: wind and solar power plants

+26.000 MW

• Demand crisis• After the 2008 financial crisis

to 2000 2000-2014

ROME, October 15th 2014

3

IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION

Main changes in the last years

Electricity Market boosts investments in generation

• Growth of conventional generation from 2002:

• +22.000 MW most in Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

• Renewable big growth from 2005

• Wind +7.000 MW

• Solar (Photovoltaic) +18.500 MW

• Investment mainly in the South, far from big consumers

Investments in generation

Thermo from 2002

+ 21.760 MW

(circa 38% al Nord)

(circa 43% al Sud )

2.700

800

750

700

3.200

1.300

150

540

190

760

2.940

2.460

4,520

750

Renewable big growth from 2005 to 1Q 2014

Overcoming from initial generation

undercapacity to satisfy the Demand to present

overcapacity

• In 2013 the peak demand has been satisfied

with a reserve margin up to 46%

2013

46%

ReservePeak Demand Reserve Margin

GW

8555

5

Installata Disponibile

2005

60

10%

from Under to Over capacity

Energy flows mainly from the South

Energy flows from liberalization to nowadays

4

ROME, October 15th 2014IMPACT OF RENEWABLE GENERATION

2,0 2,7 2,94,4 5,10,2 0,6

3,2

5,67,0

2,23,3

6,1

10,0

12,1

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Wind Photovoltaic

Source: Terna. data on operation of the Italian power system

Renewable big growth

• In 2013: Demand significantly satisfied by

Renewable: 12,1% from Wind and Photovoltaic

% Demand

Demand crisis and Renewable growth make system operation

more complex

• More flexible dispatching resources are needed

• Less regulation resources are available

0

10000

20000

30000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MWh

h

Demand not satisfied by Renewable

Evening issue: peak

Demand and reduction

of PV generation

Main changes in the last yearsDemand and Renewable trends

Demand crisis

• In 2013: back to 10yrs ago


5

321

325

330

337

340 339

320

330

335

328

317

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-3.05%

(1)

Back to 2003 level

318


OFF-PEAK

HIGH RAMP

Peak values of Demand satisfied by RES production

hourly and daily in South Italy and Sicilia

Curtailments and demand satisfied by RES (wind and solar)

Main Changes in the last years


6


RES energy and curtailment 2009 - 2013GWh

RES Curtailment 9.7% 4.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4%

26%

37%59%

89% 81%

44%

56%

88%

138%

126%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Max giorno Max ora

Innovative Solutions Implemented

� Active power: Phase shifter

transformer (PST)

� Reactive power: Reactors/Capacitors,

synchronous compensators

� Storage devices


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Management

of energy flow

Transfer Capacity

Smart Grid

Solutions

� Prediction of RES generation

� Wide Area Monitoring Systems (WAMS)

� Automatic tripping devices and real-

time configuration changes

� New Lines

� Optimization of existing

overhead lines

� Dynamic Rating

Innovative Solutions Implemented


8


PST

CAPACITOR

STORAGE SYSTEMS

REACTOR

SYNC.COMPENSATOR

STUDY FOR NEW

PST ON CROSS

BORDER SECTION

STUDY FOR NEW PST

ON CROSS BORDER

SECTION

Grid development in South Italy

� 2.000 km of new lines

� 70 new substations

� ~ 5 Mld€ investments


9


New lines and

RES connections

Upgrade existing

overhead lines

Dynamic Thermal

Rating

� First application on 100 km of 150 kV lines in South

Italy with an increase of transmission capacity of about

250 MW

� Applications on EHV voltage level grid in progress

� 1.500 km of lines on 150 kV grid

� ~ 1 Mld€ investments

New Challenges


10Dispatching and Energy Operation


• Coordination TSO-DSOs

In order to have as much information as possible concerning MV and LV generation and to improve

systems coordination

• Advanced Dispatching of RES

Estimation/forecast at short time of the renewable generation and assessment in real time of RES by

Advance Dispatching in order to guarantee the security

EU Market – Integration in Real Time

European market integration (both Energy and Dispatching Markets), in order to:

� cope opportunities in exchange of efficient energy between Markets

� share dispatching resources, with improvement of security and efficiency

� Opportunities for producers to sell resources also abroad


11


Back-Up

Renewable prod

Demand

22116

5713

Nord

1071 1288

Sardegna

Wednesday

14/05/2014 h 12

Monday

28/04/2014 h12

Sunday

07/04/2013 h13

5126

2524

CSud

Thursday

14/03/2013 h10

Sud

2009

2739

Sicilia

(*)

3462

4701

Tuesday

14/05/2013 h12

4275

CNord

1577

Monday

24/06/2013 h13

(*)

(*) considering the Wind reduction applied in real time

Considering data up to 2014, June 30thConsidering data up to 2014, June 30th

MW

12


Demand supplied by RESPeak of renewable production (Wind and Photovoltaic)


Terna’s experience in Storage

Procurement

Authorization

Construction

Project Evolution

Energy Intensive Line

� Scope: Solve Grid congestion / bottlenecks

� Total Capacity: 35MW

� Technology: NaS Sodium Sulfur

� Number of Projects: 3

� Localization: Southern Italy

Power Intensive Line

� Scope: Safe management of the grid

� Total Capacity: 40MW1

� Technology: Lithium, Zebra, Others

� Number of Projects: 2

� Localization: Main Islands

� Site Preparation:

on going (2 Projects)

� Site Preparation:

on going

Phase1: “Storage Lab”

� Total Capacity: 75MW

� 2 different Project Lines serving different scope

�Central: Done

�Building Permit: Done�Central: Done

�Building Permit: In Progress

�Modules: Completed

� System: Completed

�Modules: Completed

� System: Under way

1. Of which 16MW in Phase 1, so called “Storage Lab”


13


Future challenges

Price Zone > Pool Price

Price Zone < Pool Price

Congestions have been gradually reduced, whilst price differential among zones has

been significantly reduced

Impact of RES generation on the Energy MarketTotal Benefits 2007-2013 in the day ahead energy market

Investments have been gradually increased from 616 M€ to 1.212 M€

(*) period: January-May

2013

Pool Price

63€/MWh

62

61

59

Minimum

Price (57)

92

61

2011

70

Minimum

Price (69)

71

71

93

80

Pool Price

72€/MWh

2007

Minimum

Price (68)

73

73

73

80

75

Pool Price

71€/MWh

Pool Price

50€/MWh

50

47

46

Minimum

Price (44)

72

2014*

47


14


Impact of RES generation on the Energy Market


15


5.100 5.000

4.500

3.8003.500

3.200

2.700

2.100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-60%

• Equivalent hours of Natural Gas Power Plants in operation (hh)

Hours reduction of CCGT* power plants in operation

* The power plants considered are CCGT and Dual fuel qualified and not to Ancillary Service Market

Impact of RES generation on the Ancillary Services Market


16


terna presentation wsgreenpeace armani · source: terna. data on operation of the italian power...

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