Unexpected, high-impact events

40 years of surprises

Concepts used

Weak signals

Wild cards

Black swan events

Weak signals

Weak signals are currently existing

small and seemingly insignificant

issues that can tell us about the

changes in the future.

Means of anticipating future wild cards

Wild cards

Wild cards vs Gradual Changes

Wild card event Gradual change

Types of wild cards

Black swan events

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The event is a surprise (to the

observer).

The event has a major impact.

After its first recording, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected.

Types of black swan events

Positive: the rise of the Internet, the personal computer;

Negative: World War I, the September 11 attacks.

Can wild cards or back swans be anticipated?

  Avoiding blindness for changes is achieved by searching signals of change with the curiosity of a child.

Coping with wild cards and black swans

Future wild cards

A few of the wild card scenarios examined 12 years ago no longer appear so wild: ice cap breaks up, virtual reality moves information instead of people, terrorism swamps government defenses.

Possible future wild cards

Spiritual Paradigm Shift Sweeps the World

Science Is Wrong - It’s Rapid Cooling New Energy Discovery Comparable to

the Control of Fire Cloned Humans Threaten Everything Intelligent Alien Life Confirmed

Andreea TanasoaicaAndreea Vacaru

It is not

certain

that

everything

is

uncertain.

Blaise Pascal