ten tornadoes from wireless convergence ————————————— opportunities for...

Ten Tornadoes from Wireless Convergence

—————————————Opportunities for Australia’s

CIO Internet InnovatorsFour Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney

February 23, 2004Presented by Alex Lightman

CEO, The University NetworkChairman, Charmed Technology

Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North AmericaFounding Director, The 4G Society

Opening Thought

We need to engineer a global industry consensus on wireless convergence to improve the quantity, quality, variety, simplicity, profitability, and security of customer communication experiences while also improving civilization for all humanity.

Per

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tag

e o

f O

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ipP

erce

nta

ge

of

Ow

ner

ship

100100

8080

6060

4040

2020

00

ElectricityElectricity(1873)(1873)

TelephoneTelephone(1876)(1876)

AutomobileAutomobile(1886)(1886)

TelevisionTelevision(1926)(1926)

RadioRadio(1905)(1905)

VCRVCR(1952)(1952)

MicrowaveMicrowave(1953)(1953)

PCPC(1982)(1982)

InternetInternet(1983)(1983)

1001008080606040402020 120120

Years Since IntroductionYears Since Introduction

Telecom IndustryTelecom Industry

main frames

desk top computing

PC-LANPC-WAN

Internet

electronicpublishing and entertainment

Computer IndustryComputer Industry

Media IndustryMedia Industry

The Converged IndustryThe Converged Industry

Wireline

mobility2G/2.5G/EDGE

PSTN

ISDN

PC/Servers

NewTelecomsIndustry

NewTelecomsIndustry

3G/Mobile Internet

Carrier class

MMM

WWW

WAP

NEW

battle ground

Telecom IndustryTelecom Industry

main frames

desk top computing

PC-LANPC-WAN

Internet

electronicpublishing and entertainment

Computer IndustryComputer Industry

Media IndustryMedia Industry

The Integrated IndustryThe Integrated Industry

Wireline

mobility2G/2.5G/EDGE

PSTN

ISDN

PC/Servers

NewTelecomsIndustry

NewTelecomsIndustry

3G/mobile Internet

Carrier class

MMM

WWW

WAP

NEXT

battle ground

Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics

White Goods IndustryWhite Goods Industry

Car - Airline IndustryCar - Airline Industry

3G/mobile Internet

Revised Technology Adoption Life Cycle

2.5 %Innovators

13.5%Early

adopters

34%Early

majority

34%Late

majority

16%Laggards

New Service Revenue from Tornadoes

Standard Best-effort IP ServicesStandard Best-effort IP Services

Operational SavingsOperational Savings

Available New ServiceRevenue


Standard Best-effort IP ServicesStandard Best-effort IP Services




Old/Existing ServicesOld/Existing Services


Future Service RevenueFuture Service Revenue

TimeNow

20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries

1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or credit transaction; dropped credit card fraud over 30%.

2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes out when someone cancels to people who are in the area and want discount)

3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world counterpart.

20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries4. New Zealand: points awarded for

watching television (TV 2, SMS)

5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to your telephone)

6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS, MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing impaired.

7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one customer to another.

8. United States: Automated calling from politicians for donations (45+ states)

20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and

average speeds for various drive routes.

10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile (already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).

11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin Blue

12. England: Shazam music identifying service

13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your team’s game on big screen

20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries

14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)

15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM via mobile at Spar Bank.

16. Canada: UPS will track package and send SMS updates on delivery.

17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the post office (about $3 Australian)

18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.

19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS

20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend; gets angry if you don’t give flowers!

Ten Tornadoes

1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)

2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)

3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)

4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)

5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)

6. AR (Augmented Reality)

7. Sensornets

8. Home Networking

9. Wearable computing

10. 4G

IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g

First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives 12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b. spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security, 802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol. MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by mid 2003.

Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?

10 TU

1 TU

100 BU

10 BU

1 BU

100 MU

10 MU

Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a network increases

exponentially with the number of nodes on the network

1/Computer

1/ConsumerAppliance

1/Object

Cell Phones Wi-Fi Bluetooth/ZigBee

RFID

1/Human

Potential

CurrentPenetration

Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003Source: Deloitte & Touche, ..

IPv6 features

3.4*1038 unique addresses availableStateless autoconfigurationSecurity: authentication and

encryptionMobility management

Prediction: New world record for growth for IPv6 2004-2009

Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!* From 500 nodes to 500 million.

* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s http://www.threedegrees.com) to one million.

* Million-fold increase in packets.

* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)

Powers of IPv6 Power of Numbering Power of Sequencing Power of Ranking Power of Naming Power of Leading Power of Granularity Power of Bounding Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to

5 digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip) Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions Power of Containerized Cargo Power of Tight Targeting Power of Better Modeling and Simulation

DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept

Test & Analysis

Initialization

CoreImplementation

Coexistence

IPv6 Native

Acquire IPv6Address Space

TransitionStrategy

FY03-04

FY05-06

~ FY07-9& Beyond

AddressingPlan

IAAssessment

DNSMod

EstablishDNSRoot

NetworkEarly Adopters

EvaluateTransitionMechanism

DoDCosting

COTS v6Network SW

Dual StackEnd-To-End

ApplicationDual Stack

Capable

DoDSoftware

Implementation

IPv6Protocol Suite

Completion

IPv6FunctionalMatching

DoD IPv6Policy

FY04-05

FY06-07

Req’tsEngineering

ApplicationConversionGuidelines

Pilot CoreNetworks

Dual Stack

IA/Firewall

Capabilities

Switch/RouterASIC

Functionality

NetworkManagement

Tool Int.

Pil

ots

Pil

ots

Pil

ots

BeginWeaning

IPv4

Core NetworkIPv4

Tunneling

EdgeNetworks

IPv6 Native

CoreNetworks

IPv6 Native

Full IPv6Integration A

ll

At a first level:

Need to define next level of details and integrate in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS, mobility, convergence …..

We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion

Personal computer

Internet

Telecommunications 4G

Access to any data

Ubiquitous

Portable processing power

Intuitive, augmented reality interfaces

Context / location aware

Simplifying and enriching people’s lives

Personal electronics

Service economy

Defining 4GDefining 4G

4G networks are networks that provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-to-peer wireless access to the Internet via IPv6.

4G services are multi-rate, informational and multimedia wireless services that provide end-user terminals/sensors with access to any other authenticated peer-to-peer node on the planetary grid.

4G radios are transceivers that provide data transmission at either 10-100 Mbps/user short-range (100 meters) transmission or >1 Mbps long-range (1-10 Km) transmission.

Many 4G basestations and end-user terminals/devices will have the added feature being programmable radios through the use of wideband (400 MHZ – 6 GHZ) software defined radios.

The Planetary Grid

Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD

4GSociety.org

IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space) P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,

sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies

UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility

Broadband Wireless Technologies OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]

Smart Antennas and spatial processing Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets

Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems] Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile

communications Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded

processors Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors

Wearable computer peripherals Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various

input devices, wearable computer clothing

The 4G Technology MenuThe 4G Technology Menu

Microsoft’s advanced R & D discoveryDan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R &

D for Microsoft: “The most valuable thing we’ve learned is that in the future everything that costs over $25 except food will be connected to the Internet.”

4G is about the convergence of everything, not just of wireless, and therefore a grand consensus of ALL industries must be sought.

MultiSphere Level ConceptMultiSphere Level ConceptSystems beyond 3G will cover different communication relationsSystems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations

Source: IST WSI Project

The PANThe PAN The Immediate The Immediate EnvironmentEnvironment

Instant PartnersInstant Partners

Radio AccessesRadio Accesses CyberWorldCyberWorld: : InterconnectivityInterconnectivity

TodaySingle-service networks

GS

MG

SM

Rad

io/T

VR

adio

/TV

Fix

ed T

elep

ho

ny

Fix

ed T

elep

ho

ny

LA

N (

Dat

a)L

AN

(D

ata)

Services

Transport, Switching & Access Networks

Servers

IP Backbone Network

AccessAccess

FutureMulti-service networks

Communcation Control

Content Content

Access

Multiservice Overlay Networks

What is a SensorNet? Sensors

Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,… Sensor Platform

Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, … Telecommunications Infrastructure

Wired, Wireless, Internet, … Sensor Arrays

Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, … Layered Software Backend Data Systems

New network operations systems must be designed for adaptability and change (new equipment, multiple vendors, new service offerings/ provisioning).

1970-19901970-1990 Minicomputer/Minicomputer/DEC eraDEC era

1:1 people/machine ratio1:1 people/machine ratio

1980-1980- Workstation/Workstation/PC eraPC era


1990-1990- Enterprise networks/Enterprise networks/Cisco eraCisco era

1:100? people/machine ratio1:100? people/machine ratio

2000-2000- Broadband packet Broadband packet networks ?networks ?

1:1000? people/machine ratio1:1000? people/machine ratio

1960-19801960-1980

TimeTime

Mainframe/Mainframe/IBM eraIBM era

Platform(s)Platform(s)


Network Operations ModelNetwork Operations Model

Source: Paul JohnsonSource: Paul Johnson

Old network management systems were single vendor solutions optimized for cost in rigid five-year preplanned networks.

The New Powers of Ten

1000’s of subscriptions/person Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you

swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop Personal Black Box.

Medical Microelectronic Machines (later nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing real-time assessment against millions of high resolution medical records, each with IP address.

Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of body.

The value of curing cancer, heart disease approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.

4G(2004 –2010)

Low

Mob

ilit

y

Hig

h-M

obil

ity

0.01 0.1 1.0 10 100

Vehicular

Pedestrian

Portable

Fixed

56K Modems xDSL/CableE1/T1 Lines

T3 Lines

DECT/CordlessPhones

Bluetooth

GSM, cdmaOne

PDC

GPRS,EDGE,CDMA2000 1X 144 kbps

802.11b802.11a

Broadband Fixed Wireless Access

802.16a FBWA)

Software Defined Radio Opportunity2G 2.5G 3G

$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes$0.30 - $20/Mbytes

Multimedia Data, Location Services,Augmented Reality, Music/Video,Voice over IP, Remote Control

Smart Antennas

802.11g

Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002

4G Wireless: >4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters40-150 Mbps Transmitters

802.11b 2-11 Mbps

760 Kbps

54 Mbps

Early 4G Systems

1.5 – 20 Mbps

W-CDMA R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)

CDMA2000 1x EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps) HPSDA

802.16e Mobility

802.15a UWB PAN

3G RAN3G RAN

3G RAN3G RAN

CableCable

3G RAN3G RAN

DSLDSL

WLANWLAN

RASRAS

RASRAS

RASRAS

IPv6IPv6all-IPall-IP

Packet CorePacket Core

GWGW PSTNPSTN

ER/FWER/FW

IPv4IPv4(public or private)(public or private)

IPv6IPv6(public or private)(public or private)

3G-3G-SGSNSGSN

3G-3G-SGSNSGSN 3G-3G-

SGSNSGSN

3G-3G-GGSNGGSN

Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks

Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted their IP switching fabric to IPv6

IP organizations:www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp, www.ipv6.org

Equipment:

Cisco, IBM, Nortel,Juniper, Fluke, Lucent, NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi, Nintendo, Telia,Compaq, Sega, 3Com ATM/FR

SDH/DWDM

IP over ATM IP over DWDMNetwork Connection

RAS

ISP ERER

IPv6IPv6betweenbetween

access systemsaccess systems

Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migrate to IPv6Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migrate to IPv6

4G Personal Communicator

1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link

Voice, fax, dataMP3 PlayerPDAStorageVoice RecorderLanguage TranslatorVideo CameraHealth MonitorAugmented Reality(AR)AR Game Player

InfoSensors

User 1

7. Wireless Broadcast Layer

6. Cellular Layer

5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA

4. Wireless Gateway Layer

3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer

2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers) Layer

1. Wireline Transport Layer (Optical Fiber, DWDM, Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)

Home or OfficeHome or Office

Telecom/Internet Service ProvidersCellular OperatorsAd-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers

Seven Layers of 4G

Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ Chip 0.30 mm2 Source: IBM Research

4G as a Seven Layer Integrator4G as a Seven Layer Integrator

Fixed Wireless Access

Wireless Local Loop

Satellite

High Altitude Platform

Broadcasting

S-UMTS

SatelliteBroadband

DVB-S

DVB-T

DAB

GSM

GPRS

Cellular

MBS 40

MBS 60

Quasi-Cellular

UMTS

EDGE

UMTS ++

xMDS

Broadband FWA

Body-LANPersonal

Area Networks

MWSIR

BroadbandW-LAN

Bluetooth

W-LAN Local Area Networks

FourthGeneration

IPv6IPv6

The European Commission on 4G

©JPER

ATLICATIONS the size of WWW

Atlas application, supports the worldVoice ($500 billion annually)Radio (add personalization, location)Television (Every show ever made)Medical MonitoringSimulations High resolution Location Based

Services, including security

DeploymentRate

Slow but Steady

IPv4 Internet IPv6 Internet

P2PAd HocVoIP

GRID

HN3G

ITS WEB/Email

10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!

Closing Thought

The future is here.

It’s just not evenly distributed. William Gibson.

Alex [email protected]

Closing Thought

[email protected] Tel. 310 717 7745.

You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18, 2004, Santa Monica, CA

www.usipv6.com

Thank you! Please stay in

touch.

Alex Lightman

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