TEMPEST WP1

Aims

Three main aims:-· WP 1.1 Systematic assessment of CMIP5

cyclones.1. Atlantic-European sector.2. Verification against re-analyses.3. Response to climate change, RCP4.5, 8.5.4. Focus on extreme storms, winds and precip.5. Identify mechanisms for change with WP2 and 3.

Aims

· WP1.2 Composite cyclone structures.1. Explore composite structures of cyclones.2. In particular moist processes.3. Any changes with climate change.

· WP1.3 Natural Variability1. ACRE 100y re-analysis.2. CMIP5, pre-industrial control, >500y .3. Millennial, e.g. ECHAM5

Methodology· Apply TRACK objective tracking.

1. Standard statistics, track, genesis, lysis densities.2. Intensity distributions for properties along

tracks, e.g. MSLP, winds, precip., vorticity.3. Monte Carlo significance testing for

verification/changes.4. Cyclone compositing for structure and lifecycles;

orientation and tilts.· Traditional analyses, e.g. Large scale.

People

TEMPEST· Giuseppe Zappa, post-doc; CMIP5 analysis.· Matt Hawcroft, PhD; diabatic processes,

compositing.Associated

· Robert Lee, PhD; Re-analyses, CMIP5 analysis.· Tom Philp, PhD; satellite observations and

cyclones – re-analyses.· Adrian Champion, PhD; downscaling; DEMON.

Previous Results

ECHAM5 (925hPa)HiGEM (850hPa)

Trac

k D

ensi

tyW

ind

Spee

d

Compositing

ERA40 HiGEM

925hPa system relative winds

Work So Far (Re-Analyses)

ERAI-NCEP (Track density) ERAI-NCEP (Genesis density)

Winds (925hPa) QS v Interim (10m)

ATHENA (Synoptic)

T159 - Interim T2047 - Interim

MSLP 925hPa Winds 850hPa Vorticity

ATHENA – Climate Change

T159, A1B-20C T1279, A1B-20C

Track Density Differences

Downscaling