Temperature andspecies diversity:

predictive theory arising

Regis Ferriere

How do ecological and evolutionaryprocesses interact and jointly

influence population dynamics,community structure, and ecosystem

function?

Population,community,ecosystemdynamicsE

Phenotypic expression,ecological interactions

Individualadaptive traits

I

Selective pressureson heritable variation

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks

Looking mathematically at how‘microscopic’ processes operating at

the level of individuals scale up topopulations, communities,

ecosystems

How life history evolution influencespopulation dynamics

Adult / juvenilecompetition Population

dynamicsE

Adult survivaland recruitment

I

Selective pressureson genetic variation

How coevolution affects speciesassociation, coexistence and phenotypes

X YCost ofmutualism/symbiosis,

reward from partner,trait-dependentcompetitionfor rewards

CommunitydynamicsE

Individualinvestment in

mutualism

I

Selective pressureson genetic variation

Building mechanistic, testable modelsof global biodiversity patterns

Individual metabolismAmbienttemperature

Environmentalresources

Ecologicalinteractions

Nichepartitioning

Speciesdiversity

Biochemical Kinetics Hypothesis

Individual metabolismAmbienttemperature

Generationtime

Mutationrate

Speciationrate

Evolutionary extension

‘Universal’ biokineticsprediction fails to capturevariation in large-scale

diversity patterns

• Average organism size is constantacross communities

• Organism size does not evolve

Ambienttemperature

Environmentalresources

Ecologicalinteractions

Morpho-speciesdiversity

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of bodysize along temperature gradients

Geneticmutation

Body size

M

M

M

Evolving trophic networksB

ody

size

Evolutionary time

successful mutation #1 successful mutation #2…

Evolving trophic networks

Time

Trop

hic

posi

tion

Evolving species diversity

Evolutionary dynamics of temperature-diversity patterns

Mechanism: Effect of temperature ontwo-consumer coexistence

Temp.-dep.on resourceproductiononly

Temp.-dep.on consumerrates only

Temp.-dep.on resourceproduction &consumerrates

competitiveexclusion

coexistence by mutual invasibility

coexistence byfacilitation

Global projections: model inputs

• What forms basal resource(evolution not represented)

• Metabolism-mediated temperaturedependence(s): on or off

• Metabolism-mediated temperaturedependence(s): profile

• Communities’ age differential• Environmental geography• Environmental dynamics

Global projections: terrestrial diversity

Also mapping local invasibility how global patterns are affected by dispersal

Global projections: going marine…

Tittensor et al. (Nature 2010)

Stegen, Enquist, Ferriere (Ecol. Lett. 2009)

E

Body Size I Selective pressureson genetic variation

Temperature

OrganismalMetabolism

Trophic structure,size spectrum,

nutrient cycling

Intrinsic mortality,predation risk,

diet &feeding rate

Integrating Temperature- and Size-dependent organismal metabolism into

eco-evolutionary dynamics

Acknowledgments

Mathias Gauduchon, Emily Jones, James Stegen, Dom Carval,Arnaud Pocheville

Judie Bronstein, Don DeAngelis, Fabio Dercole, Brian Enquist,Margaret Evans, Marino Gatto, Richard Law, Hans Metz,David Reznick, Sergio Rinaldi, Joe Travis

Alex Flecker & Lab, Rana El-Sabaawi, Marita DavisonFunding from NSF, ANR, Institut Universitaire de France