temperatur 8 c 7 c 6 c 5 c 4 · kolets kretslopp bild: ipcc ar5 wg1 red arrows and numbers indicate...
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Bild och data: Nina Kirchner och Anders Moberg (https://bolin.su.se/data/)
8C
7C
6C
5C
4C
Temperatur
Kolsänkor och källor – Kollagring i berggrund
1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
?
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Klimatförändring - ett geologiskt problem
Miljontals år Tiotals år
Geo
logi
skA
ntro
po
gen
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Kolets kretslopp
Bild: IPCC AR5 WG1
“Red arrows and numbers indicate annual ‘anthropogenic’ fluxes averaged over the 2000–2009 time period. These fluxes are a perturbation of the carbon cycle during Industrial Era post 1750. Red numbers in the reservoirs denote cumulative changes of anthropogenic carbon over the Industrial Period 1750–2011.“
“Black numbers and arrows indicate reservoir mass and exchange fluxes estimated for the time prior to the Industrial Era, about 1750.”
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Bild: https://www.norebbo.com/
Petagram (Pg)
1 Pg = 1 000 000 000 000 000 g = 1 000 000 000 000 kg = 1 000 000 000 ton = 1 miljarder ton
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Petagram (Pg)
1 Pg = 1 000 000 000 000 000 g = 1 000 000 000 000 kg = 1 000 000 000 ton = 1 miljarder ton
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Petagram (Pg)
1 Pg = 1 000 000 000 000 000 g = 1 000 000 000 000 kg = 1 000 000 000 ton = 1 miljarder ton
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Petagram (Pg)
1 Pg = 1 000 000 000 000 000 g = 1 000 000 000 000 kg = 1 000 000 000 ton = 1 miljarder ton
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Petagram (Pg)
1 Pg = 1 000 000 000 000 000 g = 1 000 000 000 000 kg = 1 000 000 000 ton = 1 miljarder ton1 Pg = 5 000 000 jumbojetar
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Atmosfären 589 PgC
Flödet av C från oceanerna0,7 PgC/yr
Flödet av C från sjöar1,0 PgC/yr
Flödet av C till marken1,7 PgC/yr
Flödet av C från vulkaner0,1 PgC/yr
Flödet av C genom vittring0,1 PgC/yr
Atmosfäriskt kol (förindustriell)
Data: IPCC AR5 WG1
0,0 PgC/yr
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Atmosfären 589 PgC
Flödet av C från oceanerna0,7 PgC/yr
Flödet av C från sjöar1,0 PgC/yr
Flödet av C till marken1,7 PgC/yr
Flödet av C från vulkaner0,1 PgC/yr
Flödet av C genom vittring0,1 PgC/yr
0,0 PgC/yr
Atmosfäriskt kol (2000-2009)
Data: IPCC AR5 WG1
Flödet av C till marken4,3 PgC/yr
Flödet av C till oceanerna1,6 PgC/yr
Förändrad markanvändning1,1 PgC/yr
Fossila bränslen och cementproduktion7,8 PgC/yr
+4,0 PgC/yr
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Fossila bränslen och cementproduktion vs. vulkaner
Image: https://www.norebbo.com/; https://shutterstock.com/
0,1 PgC/yr
7,8 PgC/yr
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Oceanerna38 700 PgC
Kol-reservoirer (1750 [+1750-2019])
Data: IPCC AR5 WG1; NASA
Atmosfären589 PgC
Berggrund65 500 PgC
Oceanbottensediment1750 PgC
Vegetation450–650 PgC
Jordmåner inkl. permafrost3200–4100 PgC
Fossila bränslen1002–1940 PgC
+173 PgC
+272 PgC
-427 PgC
-18 PgC
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Oceanerna
Kolsänkor
Data: IPCC AR5 WG1; NASA
Atmosfären589 + 272 PgC
BerggrundOceanbottensediment
Vegetation
Jordmåner inkl. permafrost
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Oceanerna
Vegetation och jordmåner
Data: IPCC AR5 WG1; NASA
Atmosfären589 + 272 PgC
BerggrundOceanbottensediment
Vegetation
Jordmåner inkl. permafrost
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Natural climate solutions
Data: Griscom et al. (2017); https://nature4climate.org/science/n4c-pathways/
Skog
Jordbruk och gräsmarker
Våtmarker 0,7 PgC/år
1,3 PgC/år
4,4 PgC/år
< 0.1 kr. 0.1-1 kr. >1 kr./kg-CO2
272 PgC + 4 PgC/yr
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Natural Climate SolutionsÅterplantering av skog (reforestation)
Bild: BBC; Data: Griscom et al., 2017
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Natural Climate SolutionsSkogsbevarande (reforestation)
Bild: Scottish Natural Heritage; Data: Griscom et al., 2017
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Natural Climate SolutionsFörebyggande av skogsbrand
Bild: BBC; Data: Griscom et al., 2017
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Natural climate solutions
Data: Griscom et al. (2017); https://nature4climate.org/science/n4c-pathways/
Skog
Jordbruk och gräsmarker
Våtmarker 0,7 PgC/år
1,3 PgC/år
4,4 PgC/år
< 0.1 kr. 0.1-1 kr. >1 kr./kg-CO2
272 PgC + 4 PgC/yr
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Natural climate solutionsHållbart jordbruk (t ex conservation agriculture)
Sources: http://www.ecaf.org/; https://www.smhi.se/; Griscom et al., 2017
• Mellangrödor och/eller skördrester
• Plöjningsfritt jordbruk
• Grödrotation
Hållbart jordbruk, Charlottenlund, Skåne, Sweden
Bild: Per Landén
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Natural climate solutionsTrädplantering i åkermark och städer
Source: https://www.smhi.se/klimat/klimatanpassa-samhallet/klimatanpassning; Griscom et al., 2017
Trädplantering i åkermark och städer, Uppland och Odengatan, Stockholm
Bild: Björn EmbrénBild: Kjell Sjelin
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Natural climate solutionsBiokol
Source: https://www.stockholm.se/KulturFritid/Park-och-natur/Trad/Biokol/; Griscom et al., 2017
Biokol, Nybrogatan, Stockholm
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Natural climate solutions
Data: Griscom et al. (2017); https://nature4climate.org/science/n4c-pathways/
Skog
Jordbruk och gräsmarker
Våtmarker 0,7 PgC/år
1,3 PgC/år
4,4 PgC/år
< 0.1 kr. 0.1-1 kr. >1 kr./kg-CO2
272 PgC + 4 PgC/yr
![Page 24: Temperatur 8 C 7 C 6 C 5 C 4 · Kolets kretslopp Bild: IPCC AR5 WG1 Red arrows and numbers indicate annual Zanthropogenic [ fluxes averaged over the 2000– 2009 time period. These](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022050416/5f8c9468e84c17207c357355/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Natural climate solutionsBevarandet av våtmarker
Våtmark, Skottland
Data: Griscom et al., 2017
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Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
Source: IPCC Special Report 1.5C (2018)
The Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
• All analysed pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot use CDR to some extent to neutralize emissions from sources for which no mitigation measures have been identified and, in most cases, also to achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5°C following a peak (high confidence).
• CDR deployed at scale is unproven, and reliance on such technology is a major risk in the ability to limit warming to 1.5°C.
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Oceanerna
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
Data: IPCC AR5 WG1; NASA
Atmosfären589 + 272 PgC
BerggrundOceanbottensediment
Vegetation
Jordmåner inkl. permafrost
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Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)Gödsling av oceanerna
Algblomning, Skåne
Bilder: David Littschwager/National Geographic Society
Försurning av oceanerna
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Oceanerna
Data: IPCC AR5 WG1; NASA
Atmosfären589 + 272 PgC
BerggrundOceanbottensediment
Vegetation
Jordmåner inkl. permafrost
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
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Data: Bastin et al. (2019)
• Areal = 9 miljoner km2
• Kollagringskapacitet 205 PgC
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)Afforestation
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Hur lång tid tar det innan den extra koldioxiden försvinner från atmosfären?
Archer et al. (2009)
… 20–35% of the CO2 remains in the atmosphere after 200–2000 years …
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Oceanerna
Data: IPCC AR5 WG1; NASA
Atmosfären589 + 272 PgC
BerggrundOceanbottensediment
Vegetation
Jordmåner inkl. permafrost
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
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Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)
Bild: Stockholm Exergi
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Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)
Bild: Stockholm Exergi
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Flis från skogs- och sågverksindustrin
Bild: Stockholm Exergi
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CO2 lagring i sedimentär berggrund
Bild: Statoil
700 000 ton-CO2/år
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Hur mycket kostar det?
• 1 kr. / kg CO2
• 516 kr. för att kompensera för en flygresa Arlanda – London (t o r) • 43 100 000 000 000 kr. för att ta bort 43,1 miljarder ton CO2
• 8 Sveriges GDP
Data: ecopassenger.org; Bilder: World Atlas
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Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)Direct Air Carbon Capture Storage (DACCS)
Bild: Climeworks
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Hellisheidi, Iceland
Bild: Climeworks
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Bild: Climeworks
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Bild: Climeworks
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Hellisheidi, Iceland
Bild: Climeworks
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0
1
2
3
4
5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Up
plö
stC
O2
(mm
ol/
l)
Antal dagar efter att CO2 pumpades ner i berggrunden
Matter et al. (2016)
>95% av CO2 omvandlades till karbonatmineral
Hellisheidi, Iceland
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Hur mycket kostar det?
• 10 kr. / kg CO2
• 5160 kr. för att kompensera för en flygresa Arlanda – London (t o r) • 431 000 000 000 000 kr. för att ta bort 43,1 miljarder ton CO2
• 80 Sveriges GDP
Data: Climeworks; Bilder: World Atlas
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Fossilabränslenoch industri
CDR
40
20
0
-20
2020
Milj
ard
er
ton
CO
2
Markanvändning
1,5C pathways (P2): IPCC 2018; Global Carbon Project
IPCC:s färdplan för att klara 1,5 gradersmålet
2040 2060 2080 2100
Vad händer om vi väntar?
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Fossilabränslenoch industri
CDR
40
20
0
-20
2020
Milj
ard
er
ton
CO
2
Markanvändning
1,5C pathways (P4): IPCC 2018; Global Carbon Project
IPCC:s färdplan för att klara 1,5 gradersmålet
2040 2060 2080 2100
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Hållbar markanvändning Förnybar energi och hållbar industri
CDR
70%20% 10%
IPCC:s färdplan för att klara 1,5 gradersmålet
Minskad konsumtion
Vad händer om vi väntar?
![Page 47: Temperatur 8 C 7 C 6 C 5 C 4 · Kolets kretslopp Bild: IPCC AR5 WG1 Red arrows and numbers indicate annual Zanthropogenic [ fluxes averaged over the 2000– 2009 time period. These](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022050416/5f8c9468e84c17207c357355/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Hållbar markanvändning Förnybar energi och hållbar industri
CDR
50%15% 35%
IPCC:s färdplan för att klara 1,5 gradersmålet
Minskad konsumtion
![Page 48: Temperatur 8 C 7 C 6 C 5 C 4 · Kolets kretslopp Bild: IPCC AR5 WG1 Red arrows and numbers indicate annual Zanthropogenic [ fluxes averaged over the 2000– 2009 time period. These](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022050416/5f8c9468e84c17207c357355/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Bild och data: Nina Kirchner och Anders Moberg (https://bolin.su.se/data/)
8C
7C
6C
5C
4C
Temperatur
Kolsänkor och källor – Kollagring i berggrund
1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
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