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! Futurist (Media & Communications) ! CEO The Futures Agency ! Author & Think-Tank Leader www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard TeleMedia Futures How open technologies will shape the future of business, media and communications Gerd Leonhard @ USI 2010

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Page 1: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

! Futurist (Media & Communications)

! CEO The Futures Agency

! Author & Think-Tank Leader

www.mediafuturist.comtwitter.com/gleonhard

TeleMedia FuturesHow open technologies will shape the future of

business, media and communications

Gerd Leonhard @ USI 2010

Page 2: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Welcome to the New Normal!

Source: PaidContent.org

Page 3: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Mobile Devices

Computer

Page 4: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Connecting the Crowd and the Cloud

Page 5: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Source: Slideshare.net

Page 6: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the
Page 7: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Connectivity + Mobile + Social:

a Pivot Point similar to that of

the Printing Press...?

Youtube.com/user/ScholzundFriends

Page 8: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Only a question of time...

Page 9: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Cable TV vs OTT: get ready for a fight

Page 10: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Whatever I can get *aka the past

Page 11: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Exactly what, when, how,

where I want it

Page 12: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the
Page 13: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Phone users ~ Web Users

Page 14: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Interface (R)Evolution

Page 15: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Convergence is finally real.

Carriers, Operators, ISPs and Telecoms

Internet Giants, Search & Portals

Cable & Satellite

Page 16: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Copy & Own ! Access

Print ! Digital

Web ! TV

The Cloud ! Local Storage

Selling Copies ! Providing Access

Control ! Trust

Professionals ! Users

New business models ••• New roles

Page 17: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Consequences of

@gleonhard

Page 18: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

A new social, interconnected, mobile OS

Page 19: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Yes: Telecom + Media + Advertising...

Page 20: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Mobile. Social. Content. Advertising 2.0

@gleonhard

Page 21: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

ISPs & Mobile Operators: To do nothing is not really an option

Page 22: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Increasing disembodiment of Content

Page 23: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Most Content will be just a Click

Page 24: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the
Page 25: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Defining ‘Open Economy’

• New business models based on hyper-

collaboration (rather than competition)

• Total Transparency as a default setting

• Conversations not (just) monologs (aka Social)

• Passing control to the Users

• Open interfaces to / with business partners,

vendors, users , customers etc (API Culture)

• Use of technologies and business standards

that are supported by everyone

Page 26: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Increasing amount of Meta-Content and UGC

Page 27: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Data is the new Oil

Image licensed from sevensheaven.nl

@gleonhard

Page 28: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Content

Telecom Advertis

ing

Social Media

Page 29: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Forget most of what you know about Advertising

Page 30: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

30% + of all Advertising will be digital / interactive / mobile / social within 2-3 years *depending on territory

Page 31: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

One of the Futures of Mobile Advertising

@gleonhard

Page 32: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Think ‘cars’ not faster horses

Page 33: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

The Cloud Mobile

Social Location

Open Platforms

API Culture

Data is the new Oil

Page 34: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Media 2.0: sell i.e. provide Access, bundle Content - and up-sell from there!

Page 35: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

“Social Media” & UGCLegacy Media

Your Opportunity

is here

Your Opportunity

is here

Your Opportunity

is here

Page 36: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

@gleonhard

Page 37: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

TeleMedia Futures

Page 38: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what!

Page 39: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate

Page 40: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the Future of

Content Distribution, Marketing, Selection,

Aggregation

Page 41: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Media as a Service (MaaS)@gleonhard

Page 42: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Music Bundles: the lowest hanging fruit, especially in lesser-developed countries

Page 43: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences

Focus on ControlOpportunities for Growth

Operator Paradigm Challenges

Page 44: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

@gleonhard

Page 45: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Telcos will move up the food-chain...

Social Networking

Bundled Content Services

Communication 2.0

Money 2.0

eLearning

Page 46: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Lubricate the new, mobile, social

Digital Economy

Page 47: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

Disrupt

Lubricate

Take New Roles

Hyper-Collaborate

Create Web Mobile-Native Models

@gleonhard

Page 48: TeleMedia Futures · TeleMedia Futures. Not ‘if’ but ‘how’ and when - and for what! Flat-rated & bundled content will dominate. Mobile Operators & ISPs hold the Keys to the

[email protected]

twitter.com/gleonhardFacebook: gleonhardmore presentations at

www.mediafuturist.com

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