telecom finance 01 07

8/14/2019 Telecom Finance 01 07

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Darn that internet!

James Enck

January 2007


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Who am I and why am I here?

European Telecom

Analyst/Global Telecom

Strategist (whatever that is). Author of EuroTelcoblog

and Chaotica blogs.

My avatar is considerably

thinner than me


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My own industry is being disrupted from the edge


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Were not in Kansasanymore


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Are you ready for the most disruptive andunpredictable force in telecom?


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Your customer


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Do you know who your competitors are?


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Everyone you can imagine, and some you cant


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No longer your fathers internet


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The geeks have been hard at work


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How broad does broadband have to be?

What we have

What we want/need


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Recent study from Arthur D. Little came to the followingconclusions about European broadband in 2011:

? Not more than 10% of broadband households areexpected to exceed 30Mbps (downstream);

? Upload speed of 8Mbps will be sufficient;

? FTTH will mostly be relevant at a local/regional

level, assuming it is able to offer more than superiorbandwidth.

Do you buy the slowly, slowly story?


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Not everybody is drinking the Kool-Aid

"There's an absolute risk of peopledropping basic video service forInternet video."

"Bandwidth consumption isdefinitely increasing, and theaverage consumption rate isdefinitely increasing. It's definitelya real problem; there's definitely astorm coming."

- regional cable operator

"Prepare your networks for theprimetime on-demand wave."

- Motorola executive


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Ouch, my creaking pipes!

Source: PlusNet


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Evil BitTorrent

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

Dec-04Jan

-05

Feb-0

5

Mar-05

Apr-0

5

May-05Jun-0

5Jul-0

5

Aug-05

Sep-0

5

Oct-0

5

Nov-0

5

Dec-05Jan

-06

Feb-0

6

Mar-06

Apr-0

6

May-06Jun-0

6Jul-0

6

Aug-06

Sep-0

6

Weekly total

Monthly run rate

Weekly and normalized monthly download figures, top ten global video titles

Source: Daiwa, from p2pnet.net and BigChampagne data


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Nice, cuddly BitTorrent


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BitTorrent on HD steroids


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Even Auntie likes P2P


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A bundle of pain?


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Dont look now


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Changing allegiances


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Massive online storage and virtualization


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Massive local storage, place-shifted


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Your viral badge of choice


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Persistent virtual worlds: Its no game

slfuturesalon.blogs.com

Business Week


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Second childhood?


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Its your document calling


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if we know whats really happening at street level (even ifthat street is virtual)

Much of this will be threatening to the integrated telco model but there will also be big rewards for adapting wisely.

In a world where the humble .pdf can be a platform fordisruption, I think we have to expect that virtually

anything can happen.

Id bet that current expectations for bandwidth consumption(and related elements data center space, power, cooling,processing power, storage) are too conservative.

Conclusions


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Thanks for listening!

telecom finance 01 07

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