tele q3 2010 final

52
THIRD QUARTER 2010 October 20 2010

Upload: valery-volonin

Post on 29-Mar-2016

218 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

DESCRIPTION

prezentation TELE2

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: TELE Q3 2010 final

THIRD QUARTER 2010

October 20 2010

Page 2: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-202 Third quarter 2010

AGENDA

About Q3 2010

Financial review

Guidance and Concluding remarks

Page 3: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-203 Third quarter 2010

• Group– Total customer base amounting to more than 30 million

customers. Net customer intake for the group of almost 1.3 million

– Net sales grew by 2 percent. Currency-adjusted net sales grew by 6 percent, driven by mobile sales

– EBITDA grew by 13 percent. Currency-adjusted EBITDA grew by 17 percent. EBITDA margin amounted to 28 (25) percent

• Nordic

• Russia

• Central Europe & Eurasia

• Western Europe

HIGHLIGHTS Q3

Page 4: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-204 Third quarter 2010

HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 SWEDEN

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Mobile net sales

Mobile YoY net sales growth

(SE

K M

illio

n)

• Increased mobile revenue growth to 10

percent

• Adding 103,000 mobile customers

• Mobile EBITDA margin 34 (34) percent

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Postpaid Prepaid EBITDA-margins

Page 5: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-205 Third quarter 2010

1 iPhone4

2Sony Ericsson X10 Mini

Pro

3 iPhone 3GS

4 Samsung Galaxy S

5 HTC Desire

6 Sony Ericsson X10 Mini

7 HTC Wildfire

8 Sony Ericsson X10

9 Sony Ericsson Elm

10 Nokia 6700 Slide

SHIFT TOWARDS SMART PHONES

• Smartphones demanded by mass market

– Shift driven by increased variety of smartphones combined with an increased awareness of the possibilities of a mobile internet access

Regular

phone

customers

:Smartphone

customers

Data usage per

month (Mb)1 : 40

MoU* 1 : 1.4

ASPU** 1 : 1.7

Proportion based scale where regular phone usage is base

* Out-going minutes

** ARPU Excluding operator revenue and installments

Top 10 phone sales (Aug-

Sep)

Page 6: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-206 Third quarter 2010

HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 RUSSIA

• Third and fourth new regions

now EBITDA break-even

• 1,170,000 (1,100,000) new

customers in Q3 2010

New regions

-150

50

250

450

650

850

1050

1250

Q2

09

Q3

09

Q4

09

Q1

10

Q2

10

Q3

10

(In

th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Net Intake - New regions

Net Intake - Old regions

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Q2

09

Q3

09

Q4

09

Q1

10

Q2

10

Q3

10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

EBITDA - New regions EBITDA - Old regions

EBITDA - Total margin

Tomsk

Orel

Kaliningrad

Tula

Page 7: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-207 Third quarter 2010

HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 BALTIC REGION

-92-82-72-62-52-42-32-22-12-28

1828384858

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

Net intakeEstonia Lithuania Latvia

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illion)

EBITDA CAPEX EBITDA - CAPEX

• Stabilizing economy leading to better

operational environment

• Strong net intake, adding 55,000

(28,000) customers in the region

(th

ou

san

ds)

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Page 8: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-208 Third quarter 2010

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

EBITDA

• Next goal is to deliver positive free cash flow within a year

• 81,000 (70,000) new customers added in Q3 10

SE

K M

illio

n

-18

-8

2

12

22

32

42

52

62

72

82

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

Net intake

HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 CROATIA

Page 9: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-209 Third quarter 2010

HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 KAZAKHSTAN

• Customer stock of 218 000 in Q3 2010. 18,000 new customers added in September

-20

-10

0

10

20

April Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep

Net intake 2010

• Preparing for re-launch under Tele2 brand 1H 2011

Page 10: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2010 Third quarter 2010

• Netherlands

- BBned acquisition completed

HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 WESTERN EUROPE

• Germany

- Record high EBITDA margin in

fixed telephony of 46 percent

• Austria

- Continued good progress in

restructuring program leading to

sequential improvement of

EBITDA contribution

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Netherlands Austria Germany

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Netherlands Austria Germany

EBITDA contribution

Page 11: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2011 Third quarter 2010

AGENDA

About Q3 2010

Financial review

Guidance and Concluding remarks

Page 12: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2012 Third quarter 2010

Q3 2010 GROUP RESULTS

SEK million Q3 10 Q3 09 Change %

Net Sales 9,998 9,829 2%

EBITDA 2,751 2,441 13%

- EBITDA margin (%) 28% 25%

Depreciation and joint venture -876 -924

- Depreciation of Net sales (%) 9% 9%

One-off items 17 116

EBIT 1,892 1,633

Normalized EBIT 1875 1517

- Normalized EBIT margin (%) 19% 15%

Financial items -16 199

Taxes 608 401

Net result, continuing operations 2,484 2,233

Net result, discontinued operations 29 -478

Net result 2,513 1,755

Page 13: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2013 Third quarter 2010

TAXES

• SEC tax dispute: Oral hearing will take place in the end of November,

thereafter the outcome will be announced in 1-2 months

• The total value of the SEC tax dispute is SEK 4,6 billion

Taxes in income statement YTD Sep 10 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010

Normal -1,128 -441 -348 -339

One-Off 976 1049 -73 -

Total -152 608 -421 -339

Taxes in cash flow YTD Sep 10 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010

Normal -580 -152 -195 -233

Page 14: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2014 Third quarter 2010

CURRENCY MOVEMENTS (VS SEK)

YTD Avarage 2010 vs 2009 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010

EUR -10% -10% -9%

RUB 0,5% +/- 0 -2%

Fix rate vs 31/12-2009 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2010

EUR -12% -8% -6%

RUB -7,5% 3% 1%

• EUR/RUB pegged currencies approximately:

– 38% of sales and

– 33% of EBITDA

Page 15: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2015 Third quarter 2010

CASH FLOW FOR Q3 2010

SEK million Q3 10 Q3 09

OPERATING ACTIVITIES

Cash flow from operations, less paid taxes

Taxes paid

2,733

-152

2,499

-98

Changes in working capital 39 186

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 2,620 2,587

INVESTING ACTIVITIES

CAPEX -923 -1,065

Cash Flow after CAPEX

Acquisition and sale of shares and participations, net

1,697

-96

1,601

1,522

-208

1,314

Page 16: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2016 Third quarter 2010

GROUP FINANCIAL PROFILE

00,20,40,60,811,21,41,6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q3 0

7

Q4 0

7

Q1 0

8

Q2 0

8

Q3 0

8

Q4 0

8

Q1 0

9

Q2 0

9

Q3 0

9

Q4 0

9

Q1 1

0

Q2 1

0

Q3 1

0

BS

EK

Net debt Net debt incl. JV

Net debt/ EBITDA 2009 Net debt incl. JV/ EBITDA 2009

Page 17: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2017 Third quarter 2010

ROCE

6,0%

7,0%

8,0%

9,0%

10,0%

11,0%

12,0%

13,0%

14,0%

15,0%

16,0%

17,0%

18,0%

19,0%

20,0%

21,0%

22,0%

23,0%

24,0%

25,0%

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 18: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2018 Third quarter 2010

GROUP EBITDA

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

-500

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Group EBITDA margin

Page 19: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2019 Third quarter 2010

GROUP MOBILE EBITDA

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Mobile EBITDA on own infrastructure Mobile EBITDA (MVNO)

Mobile EBITDA margin on own infratsructure Total mobile EBITDA margin

Page 20: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2020 Third quarter 2010

MoU AND ARPU DEVELOPMENT

180

200

220

240

30

40

50

60

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

SE

K

Russia

ARPU MoU

180

200

220

240

260

160

180

200

220

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

SE

K

Sweden

ARPU MoU

• Robust ARPU development

– Swedish and Russian ARPU grew more than 8 percent in one quarter

Page 21: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2021 Third quarter 2010

AGENDA

About Q3 2010

Financial review

Guidance and Concluding remarks

Page 22: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2022 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 GOING FORWARD

• Best Deal position

• Targeting a long-term

mobile EBITDA margin on own

infrastructure of at least 35 percent

• All operations should have the ambition of reaching ROCE of at least 20 percent

• The capability to reach a top 2 position, in terms of customer market share, in an individual country or region

Page 23: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2023 Third quarter 2010

GROUP OUTLOOK (CHANGED)

• Tele2 forecasts a corporate tax rate of approximately 22 percent

excluding one-off items in 2010. The tax payment will affect cash flow

by approximately SEK 800 million in 2010

• The oral hearing of the SEC tax dispute is expected to be conducted

the 26 of November and a verdict will be announced 1-2 month(s) later

• Tele2 forecasts that CAPEX level in 2010 will not exceed SEK 4,000

million

• Earlier SEK 4,200-4,400 million

Page 24: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2024 Third quarter 2010

SWEDEN OUTLOOK (UNCHANGED)

• Tele2 will continue to target the postpaid segment, which in the longer

term will lead to:

– Increased ARPU

– Lower churn

• In the short term, this strategy will lead to higher total acquisition costs

resulting in:

– An EBITDA margin in the range of 33-35 percent depending on customer

intake in 2010

Page 25: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2025 Third quarter 2010

RUSSIA OUTLOOK (CHANGED)

• Subscriber base should be able to reach 19-20 million by YE 2011

• Maintain ARPU growth at 5 percent by 2011

• EBITDA 2010-2011

– Old regions’ EBITDA margin should stabilize at 45 percent

– Most New regions’ EBITDA will break-even by 18 months (2 years) from

launch

– Russia’s total EBITDA margin should develop in the range of 34-37 (27-

32) percent

• Capex 2010-2011

– Accumulated Capex in Russia should be in the range of SEK 3,500-4,000

million

– Earlier SEK 4,500-5,000 million

– Selected acquisitions – when available and under right conditions

Page 26: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2026 Third quarter 2010

KAZAKHSTAN OUTLOOK (UNCHANGED)

• Subscriber base should aim to reach 400,000-450,000 by YE 2010

• Blended ARPU should be in the range of SEK 40-45

• EBITDA should approximately be:

- SEK -250 million in 2010

- SEK -400 to -450 million in 2011

• Accumulated Capex should be in the range of SEK 1,400-1,600 million

by YE 2011

• Operations in Kazakhstan should be able to reach breakeven within 2

years from the commercial re-launch, which is planned in 1H 2011

Page 27: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2027 Third quarter 2010

CROATIA OUTLOOK (NEW)

• Tele2 Croatia will reach free cash flow break-even by 2H 2011

Page 28: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2028 Third quarter 2010

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Nordic

• Accelerated mobile revenue growth

Russia

• Record high customer intake and EBITDA

Central Europe and Eurasia

• Improving economy leading to stable cash flow contribution

Western Europe

• Solid operational performance

2010 an investment year

• Russia

• Kazakhstan

• Sweden

- 4G

- Spring Mobil

• Norway

- 3G

• Netherlands

- BBned

Page 29: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2029 Third quarter 2010

Q&A

Page 30: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2030 Third quarter 2010

Appendix A

Page 31: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2031 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2 800

2 900

3 000

3 100

3 200

3 300

3 400

3 500

3 600

3 700

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(In th

ousands)

(In th

ousands)

Mobile subscribers Net intake

Page 32: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2032 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE (contd)

20%

24%

28%

32%

36%

40%

1 600

1 700

1 800

1 900

2 000

2 100

2 200

2 300

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Mobile Net sales EBITDA marg. EBIT marg.

Page 33: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2033 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 NORWAY MOBILE

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(In

th

ou

sa

nd

s)

(In

th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Mobile subscribers Net intake

Page 34: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2034 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 NORWAY MOBILE (contd)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

450

500

550

600

650

700

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Mobile net sales EBITDA marg.

Page 35: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2035 Third quarter 2010

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(In

th

ou

sa

nd

s)

(In

th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Mobile subscribers Net intake

TELE2 RUSSIA MOBILE

Page 36: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2036 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 RUSSIA MOBILE (contd)

30%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

38%

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

2 400

2 800

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Mobile net sales EBITDA marg.

Page 37: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2037 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 BALTIC MOBILE

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(In

th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Mobile subscribers Net intake

Page 38: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2038 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 BALTIC MOBILE (contd)

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Estonia Net sales Lithuania Net sales Latvia Net sales EBITDA marg.

Page 39: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2039 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 CROATIA MOBILE

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(In

th

ou

sa

nd

s)

(In

th

ou

sa

nd

s)

Mobile subscribers Net intake

Page 40: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2040 Third quarter 2010

TELE2 CROATIA MOBILE (contd)

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illion

)

Mobile Net sales EBITDA marg.

Page 41: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2041 Third quarter 2010

Appendix B

Page 42: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2042 Third quarter 2010

NET DEBT AND DIVIDEND TARGETS

• Shareholder remuneration

– “Tele2’s intention is to pay a progressive ordinary dividend to its

shareholders over the medium term”

• Long-term financial leverage

– “Tele2’s longer-term financial leverage, defined as the

net debt /EBITDA ratio, should be in line with the industry and the

markets in which it operates”

• Short-term consideration

– “The company needs to take the uncertainties in the financial

markets into consideration and act accordingly”

Page 43: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2043 Third quarter 2010

Appendix C

Page 44: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2044 Third quarter 2010

FINANCIAL ITEMS Q3 2010

SEK million Q3 10 Q3 09 Change

External

Net interest expenses -89 -111 22

Exchange rate differences, external 56 138 -82

Other financial items

Exchange rate differences, intragroup

-40

-73

57

-10

17

182

-30

-90

-125

Financial items -16 199 -215

Page 45: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2045 Third quarter 2010

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

2 400

2 800

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Cash flow after CAPEX Cash flow from operating activities

CASH FLOW DEVELOPMENT

Page 46: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2046 Third quarter 2010

GROUP NET INTAKE PER SEGMENT

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1 100

1 300

1 500

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(In thousands)

Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony

Page 47: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2047 Third quarter 2010

GROUP CUSTOMER STOCK

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(In thousa

nds)

Group Mobile Customer Stock

Mobile Internet Postpaid voice Prepaid voice

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(In thousands)

Group Customer Stock

Mobile Fixed Broadband Fixed Telephony

• Strong intake in the mobile segment

– Driven by Russia adding 1,170,000 new customers

Page 48: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2048 Third quarter 2010

GROUP FIXED BROADBAND EBITDA

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

100

200

300

400

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Fixed broadband Fixed broadband EBITDA margin

Page 49: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2049 Third quarter 2010

GROUP FIXED TELEPHONY EBITDA

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

31%

32%

33%

300

400

500

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Fixed telephony Fixed telephony EBITDA margin

Page 50: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2050 Third quarter 2010

GROUP EBIT

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-500

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Group EBIT margin

Page 51: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2051 Third quarter 2010

GROUP CAPEX

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

(SE

K m

illio

n)

Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony

Other Capex/sales

In 2010: Tele2 forecasts a CAPEX level in the range of SEK 4,600 – 4,800 million

Page 52: TELE Q3 2010 final

2010-10-2052 Third quarter 2010