technology roadmaps: driving industry...
TRANSCRIPT
Technology Roadmaps:
Driving Industry
Collaboration
September 26, 2006
SMTAI, Rosemont, Illinois
Chuck Richardson
1
Topics CoveredTopics Covered
• Overview
• Situation Analysis
• Highlights from the Product Emulator Groups
• Highlights from the Individual Roadmaps
• Identified Needs
• Paradigm Shifts and Strategic Concerns
• Key Recommendations
• Major Trends
• Innovation Challenge
• Closing Pb-free gaps
• 2007 Roadmap
2
SoftwareSolutions
Marketing Design ManufacturingOrder
Fulfillment
Supply Chain ManagementInformation Technology
LogisticsCommunications
Business Practices
Build toOrder
Materials
Components
Customer
MissionMission
Equipment
MaterialsTransformation
CollaborativeDesign Life Cycle
SolutionsSoftwareSolutions
Assure Leadership of the Global Electronics Manufacturing Supply Chainfor the benefit of members and the industry
3
Industry Leaders belong Industry Leaders belong –– OEM/EMS OEM/EMS
4
Industry Leaders belong Industry Leaders belong –– Suppliers Suppliers
5
Industry Leaders belongIndustry Leaders belong
Consultants, Government, Organizations & UniversitiesConsultants, Government, Organizations & Universities
6
OrganizationOrganization
TechnologyRoadmapping
19 IndustryTWGs
Implementation
7 iNEMITIGs
iNEMI Staff
Responsible forCommunications
Membership Development
Technical Facilitation
iNEMI Staff
Responsible forCommunications
Membership Development
Technical Facilitation
iNEMI Boardof Directors
Responsible forStrategic Objectives
Operations
iNEMI Boardof Directors
Responsible forStrategic Objectives
Operations
Board AssemblyTIG
TechnologyWorkingGroup
TechnologyWorkingGroup
TechnologyWorkingGroup
TechnologyWorkingGroup
Research Committee
Responsible forBreak-Through Technologies
Research Committee
Responsible forBreak-Through Technologies
Technical Committee
Responsible forProject StrategyRoadmapping
Technical Committee
Responsible forProject StrategyRoadmapping
Product Emulator
Group
Product Emulator
Group
•••
Product NeedRoadmapping
5 IndustryPEGs
ECETIG
Heat TransferTIG
MedicalTIG
OptoelectronicsTIG
SiPTIG
SubstratesTIG
TechnologyRoadmapping
19 IndustryTWGs
Implementation
7 iNEMITIGs
iNEMI Staff
Responsible forCommunications
Membership Development
Technical Facilitation
iNEMI Staff
Responsible forCommunications
Membership Development
Technical Facilitation
iNEMI Boardof Directors
Responsible forStrategic Objectives
Operations
iNEMI Boardof Directors
Responsible forStrategic Objectives
Operations
Board AssemblyTIG
TechnologyWorkingGroup
TechnologyWorkingGroup
TechnologyWorkingGroup
TechnologyWorkingGroup
Research Committee
Responsible forBreak-Through Technologies
Research Committee
Responsible forBreak-Through Technologies
Technical Committee
Responsible forProject StrategyRoadmapping
Technical Committee
Responsible forProject StrategyRoadmapping
Product Emulator
Group
Product Emulator
Group
•••
Product NeedRoadmapping
5 IndustryPEGs
ECETIG
Heat TransferTIG
MedicalTIG
OptoelectronicsTIG
SiPTIG
SubstratesTIG
7
Some DefinitionsSome Definitions……
• TWG - Technical Working Group
– Develops the roadmaps
– Presently 19 groups
• TIG - Technology Integration Group
– Develops tactical 5 year iNEMI internal plan
• Based on roadmap findings and gap analysis meetings
– Acts as program management / oversight for projects
• PEG – Product Emulator Group
– “Virtual Product”: future product attributes plus key cost and density drivers
– Number of PEGs or product emulator groups may vary each cycle
• Seven product sectors in 2004
• Five in 2007
8
ProductNeeds
TechnologyEvolution
GAPAnalysis
Research
Projects
MethodologyMethodology
CompetitiveSolutions
Roadmap
Industry SolutionNeeded
Academia
Government
iNEMIMembers
Collaborate
No WorkRequired
Availableto Market
Place
GlobalIndustry
ParticipationDisruptive
Technology
9
Attributes of iNEMI RoadmapsAttributes of iNEMI Roadmaps
• iNEMI Roadmap is customer need driven, nottechnology driven.
• OEM driven Product Emulator Groups (PEGs) startroadmapping process by presenting what they needto remain competitive in the world market.
• Focus of Roadmaps is on process and technologyrather than end products.
• Technology Working Groups (TWGs) respond andidentify gaps and showstoppers. They do notprovide solutions.
• iNEMI Technical Committee prioritizes gaps andforms Technology Integration Groups (TIGs) toclose them.
10
2004 Roadmap Priorities 2004 Roadmap Priorities
• Maintain strong linkages with other roadmaps.
• Strengthen and realign Product Emulators.
• Begin proactively globalizing roadmap.
• Expand emphasis on disruptive events (business &technical).
• Expand emphasis on identifying market needs andbusiness situations.
• Increase quantification of needs.
• Prioritize Research and Deployment needs.
• Increase strategic vision of the roadmap: 2011-2017
• Release at APEX 2005
11
Statistics for the 2004 RoadmapStatistics for the 2004 Roadmap
• > 470 Participants
• > 220 Companies/organizations
• 11 Countries from 3 Continents
• 19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)(added Sensors)
• 7 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
• Over 1200 Pages of Information
• Roadmaps the needs for 2005-2015
12
7 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)7 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)
Emulators Characteristics
Portable / Consumer High volume Consumer Products for which cost is the primary driver including Hand held, battery -powered products driven by size and weight reduction
System in a Package Complete function provided in a packag e to system
manufacturer
Office Systems / Large Business Systems
Products which seek maximum performance from a few thousand dollar cost limit to literally no cost limit
Network / Datacom /
Telecom Products Products that serve the networking, datacom and telecom markets and cover a wide range of cost and
performance targets
Medical Products Products which must operate within a high ly reliab le
environment
Automotive Products which must operate in an automotive environment
Defense and Aerospace Produc ts which must operate in extreme environments
Yellow = Completely new Emulator Green = Broadened focus
13
2004 Auto PEG Spreadsheet of Key2004 Auto PEG Spreadsheet of Key
AttributesAttributes
14
19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
Organic SubstratesBoard
Assembly Customer
RF Components &Subsystems
Optoelectronics
Displays
Energy Storage Systems
Modeling, Simulation,and Design
PackagingSemiconductor
Technology
Final Assembly
Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)
Passive Components
Product LifecycleInformation
Management (PLIM)
Test, Inspection &Measurement
EnvironmentallyConsciousElectronics
Ceramic Substrates
ThermalManagement
Connectors
Sensors
15
iNEMI
Optoelectronics
TWG
Optoelectronics andOptical Storage
InterconnectSubstrates—Ceramic
InterconnectSubstrates—Organic
Magnetic andOptical Storage
Supply ChainManagement
Semiconductors
iNEMI Roadmap
iNEMI
Product
Lifecycle
Information
Management
TWG
iNEMI
Mass Data
Storage TWG
iNEMI / IPC
Interconnect
TWG
iNEMI / ITRS
Packaging
TWG
iNEMIBoard Assy
TWG
Roadmap AlliancesRoadmap Alliances
16
Standards AlliancesStandards Alliances
• IPC
• IEEE
• EIA/JEDEC
• RosettaNet
Currently we have standards alliances with thefollowing organizations:
Situation Analysis:
Market
Technology
Legislation
18
The Expanding Digital Product BaseThe Expanding Digital Product Base
New products, enabled by new technologies, arecreating a pronounced market shift in theindustry:
– Blurring of the lines: computers & communications
– Cell phone market growth
– Emergence of Wireless Products (Bluetooth, 802.11)
– Digital Cameras and Personal EntertainmentSystems
– Automotive electronics (add functionality of home &office to your car plus added safety features)
– Significant presence in emerging markets is animperative (no longer a differentiator).
19
Global Market GrowthGlobal Market Growth
• Production of computers & office products is expected to reach$379Bn in 2004 with growth of 6.2% / year to $483Bn in 2008,accounting for 37% of the electronics market – the largestsegment.
• Production of netcom equipment is forecast to be $180Bn in 2004– about 18% of the electronics industry. Internet use shouldincrease at this segment about 6.3% / year to $230Bn in 2008.
• Portable / Consumer electronics production is reach $183Bn in2004 increase about 5.1% / year to reach $223Bn in 2008.
• Medical electronics production is expected to be $39.5Bn in 2004(accounting for about 4.9% of the global industry), growing at4.9% / year to 2008.
• 1.89Bn SiPs assembled in 2004. Forecast for 2008 is 3.25Bn(average growth of 12% / year).
* Market data provided by Prismark Partners, LLC
20
The End of Semiconductor ScalingThe End of Semiconductor Scaling
• The anticipated end to semiconductor scalingc. 2015 will create a major technology shift:
• Implementation of advanced, non-classical CMOSdevices with enhanced drive current
• Identification, selection, and implementation ofadvanced devices (beyond-CMOS)
• Increased need for improved cooling
• Potential need for high speed opticalcommunications at the backplane level
• Innovative Packaging for:
– Nano size devices
– Giga-function System in Package (SiP)
• Innovation must begin soon to meet the needs!
21
Technology ChangesTechnology Changes
• Growth in silicon device size is slowing
• SiP applications have become technology driver for:
– Small components
– packaging
– assembly processes
– high density substrates
• LCD & plasma displays encroaching on CRT market
• MEMS technology is making new capabilities feasiblein old and new markets
• Alternative approaches to today’s established datastorage technologies will develop over the nextdecade.
22
Global Environmental LegislationGlobal Environmental Legislation
Legislation impacting the design and recycling ofelectronic products is being enactedthroughout the world:
• Environmental legislation in various productsegments requires the electronics industry toshare detailed material content data ofproducts and components.
• To meet regional legislative requirements,manufacturers must remove environmental“Materials of Concern,” such as lead.
• The electronics industry is facing producerresponsibility (recycling) legislation.
Highlights from the
Product Emulator Groups
(PEGs)
24
Automotive PEG HighlightsAutomotive PEG Highlights
• Reliability – 100,000 miles or 10 years
• Harsh Environment becoming harsher
• HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) creating newopportunities For Automotive Electronics
• Merging of Automotive and ConsumerElectronics
• Ability to respond to environmental legislation
• Substrate, component assembly, and IC packagecosts should drop:
– 30% in the next 5 Years
– 60% in the next 10 Years
25
System in Package PEG HighlightsSystem in Package PEG Highlights
• Broadest adoption of SiP has been for stacked memory/logic devices & small modules (integrate mixed signaldevices & passives for mobile phones).
• SiP provides more integration flexibility, faster time tomarket, lower R&D cost, & lower product cost for someapplications (vs. SOC).
• Infrastructure issues facing SiP implementations include:
• Need for low cost higher density substrates
• High speed simulation tools for electrical & mechanicalanalysis
• Wafer level packaging
• Lower cost assembly equipment
• Improved materials for encapsulation
• Skill set and business models vary for EMS/SAS(Semiconductor Assembly Services)
26
Projected growth for Projected growth for SiPsSiPs
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
RF Cellu
lar
Digita
lW
LAN/Blu
etooth
Power S
upply
Autom
otive
Image/D
ispla
yOpto
electro
nics
Oth
er
SiP
Un
its
(Bill
ion
s)
2003
2007
Handsets
51%
Satellite
15%
Other
4%
Infrastructure
30%
Overall SiP Market: 2003 vs. 2007
Sources: Prismark (primary), Deutch Bank, Credit Suisse First Boston, Allied Business Intelligence.
27
Netcom PEG HighlightsNetcom PEG Highlights
• Themes for next generation development:– Common design tools– Common manufacturing / test capabilities– Common component specifications– Leverage across the communications hardware
industry
• Telecommunications equipment is facing a crisis: abilityto manage the thermal load in next-generation systems
• Need for flexible manufacturing is pervasive across entireNetcom product portfolio
• Most profound paradigm shift is change in supply chainmodel, moving from completely vertically integratedcompanies to nearly completely horizontally integratedcompanies
• Two strong growth areas will be high-speed Internetaccess and VOIP (Voice Over IP).
Highlights from the
Individual Roadmaps
29
Environmentally Conscious Electronic HighlightsEnvironmentally Conscious Electronic Highlights
To remain competitive, the electronics industrymust continue to keep pace with emerging:
– Material restrictions
– End-of life requirements
– Customer preferences for energy efficientproducts
– Holistic design requirements
– Sustainable business practices.
30
Environmentally Conscious Electronic NeedsEnvironmentally Conscious Electronic Needs
• Design:
– Qualification of replacements for hazardous substances
– Automated data management systems for materials declarations
– Product and WEEE compliance verification processes
– LCA / SLCA tools
• Materials:
– Pb-free for high reliability requirement applications
– Cd and Pb-free PVC cables
– REACH risk assessment for chemical emissions
• Energy:
– Cost effective methods to improve power supply efficiency
– Enabled power management of IT equipment
• Recycling:
– Compliance to diverse regional Recycling requirements
• Sustainability:
– Standard Sustainability Indicators and Reporting protocol for EEE
31
Board Assembly HighlightsBoard Assembly Highlights
• Board assembly incurs most of the direct-material costs forelectronics products and is critical to electronics supply chain
• Identified areas for improvement:
- Efficiency and utilization of high mix/low volume lines
- Set up times & adoption of factory information
integration with real time optimization
- Ramps to volume and line flexibility
- Qualification processes for materials & process development
- DPMO leverage to understand package performance
- DFx tools integrated with factory data systems
• Board assembly is being impacted by MEMS, optoelectronics andwireless communications packaging technology development
• Movement of board assembly to low cost areas of the world –primarily China – continues.
32
Assembly Gaps Associated With ComponentsAssembly Gaps Associated With Components
Parameter Definition 2003 2005 2007 2009 2015
Digital Terminals
Maximum number of terminals to the board. That are carrying a digital signal per package
800 2900 3200 3500 3500
RF Terminals
Maximum number of terminals to the board. That are carrying a RF signal per package
100 200 200 200 200
Maximum Body Size (L x W)- mm 40 52.5 70 70 70
Minimum Terminal
Pitch BGA Pitch of the I/O (mm) 1.27 0.80 0.80 0.65 0.50
Minimum Terminal
Pitch CSP Pitch of the I/O (mm) 0.65 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.30
Number of stack die Maximum number of stacked die in a package
4 7 8 8 8
Number of die in SiP
max
Maximum number of stacked or unstacked die in a package
8 10 12 12 12
Minimum
Component size
Minimum component size used in a package by type
0201 0201 01005 01005 01005
Embedded Passives N/A Few YES YES YES YES
MSL Level Moisture sensitivity level per IPC that packages are qualified
3 2 2 2 2
Max Reflow
Temperature
Common reflow temperature for multi die packages. – deg C
250 260 260 260 260
Thermal conductivity critical 80% 85% 90% 90% 90%
Low temperature capability <5% <5% <5% <5% <5%
Pre-applied <1% 3% 5% 20% 30% Die Attach Materials
Matched CTE capability 0% 5% 7% 15% 25%
Key
Current Capability
In Development
Research Needed
33
Interconnection Substrates HighlightsInterconnection Substrates Highlights
• Area array components driving wiring densityincreases in organic substrates
• New high speed requirements demand Z axiscontrol, signal integrity and EMI designconsiderations
• Integral passives are needed for both wiringdensity and electrical performance
• Cost expectations of iNEMI emulators may bedifficult for European & North Americanfabricators.
34
Packaging HighlightsPackaging Highlights
• Packaging costs have become a larger part of I/Ccosts
• Impact of packaging is increasing, but R&Dinvestment is not
• Packaging has become a major competitive factordue to:– rapid growth in wireless
– complex consumer products
• Emerging device technologies driving newpackaging requirements
• Major challenge: modeling/simulation of mechanical,thermal & electrical performance of the entire chip,package & heat removal structures as a system.
Identified Needs
36
Design Technology - NeedsDesign Technology - Needs
Design & simulation tools are main roadblocks to morerapid introduction of new technologies:
– Mechanical & reliability modeling
– Thermal & thermo-fluid simulation
– Co-design of mechanical, thermal & electricalperformance of the entire chip, package & associatedheat removal structures
– Simulation tools for nano devices & materials
– Improved design tools for emerging technologies likeembedded passives & optoelectronic PWBs
– Integrated design & simulation tools (circuit, EM,thermal, mechanical, manufacturing, etc.) for higherfunctionality in mixed-mode wireless chips & modules.
37
Manufacturing Technology - NeedsManufacturing Technology - Needs
• Improved stencil technology or paste dispensing
• Cost effective under fill process including rework
• Equipment to close cost gap between flip chip & SMTplacement
• Reconfigurability for final assembly
• SMT compatible optical assembly processes withaccuracies < 10 m
• Test procedures for optical components &electro/optical systems
• Analog test including scan and self-test technology.
38
Optoelectronics Technology - NeedsOptoelectronics Technology - Needs
• Development of optical polymeric materials for improvedmultimode data transmission
• Development of multi-frequency chip-to-chipinterconnections
• Combined processing of high frequency and microoptical components
• Development of optical connectors and packageinterfaces
• Wafer level packaging for optoelectronic systems
• Cost-effective packaging for long wavelength singlemode VCSELs.
39
Packaging Technology - NeedsPackaging Technology - Needs
• Improved organic substrates
• Reliable packages for Cu/low k devices
• Pb, Sb, Halogen free packaging materials
• Improved Materials for:
- High frequency performance > 2 GHz
- Smaller packages and tighter I/Opitches (exceeding today’s capabilities).
40
Component/Subsystem Technology - NeedsComponent/Subsystem Technology - Needs
• Improved performance & reduced leakage in low powerapplications
• Medium power, low-loss, high-selectivity RF filters
• Improved optoelectronic subcomponents and componentintegration
• Low cost, high volume optical connectors
• In-circuit test technologies that are incorporated into the buildprocess
• Cost & performance models:
– Evaluate trade offs between embedded passives and 01005components
– Evaluate optical versus copper interconnection
41
Supply Chain Integration - NeedsSupply Chain Integration - Needs
• Material Traceability through Product Life Cycle for:
– Environmental and Medical Regulations
– Automotive and Military Requirements.
• Further Integration of design chain/supply chain toreduce costs and improve performance throughoutthe product life cycle:
– Understanding customer needs (moving target)
– Critical information flow
– Timely decisions that optimize performance of entirechain rather than one node.
Paradigm Shifts &
Strategic Concerns
43
Paradigm ShiftsParadigm Shifts
• Convergence of broadband communications anddigital technology has increased product opportunitieswhile creating market uncertainty:
– What is the right combination of functions?
– Which companies/services will win?
– Trends are beginning to emerge
• System in Package functional modules are speedingthe design of new portable and office system productsand reducing risk to the OEM. Product examples:
– Bluetooth
– WiFi (802.11b,a,g)
– GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication )
44
Vision of the Evolution of SiPVision of the Evolution of SiP
Source: Professor Rao Tummala, Georgia Institute of Technology-Packaging Research Center.
45
• Rapid introduction of complex, multifunctional newproducts to address converging markets favorsdevelopment of functional, modular components (e.g. SiP)
– Increases flexibility & shortens product design cycle & places test burden onmodule producers
– This architecture allows for MEMS device construction with a variety of newapplications in fuel cells & life sciences (DNA/blood testing)
• Wireless applications are an important driver forsemiconductor products & technologies and may stimulatedisruptive solutions
• Nanotechnology has the potential to be a very disruptivetechnology during the period covered by the roadmap
• New energy technologies that may cause disruptiveopportunities include fuel cells and high power batteries forhybrid electric vehicles.
Potential Disruptive TechnologyPotential Disruptive Technology
46
Next Generation Packaging TechnologyNext Generation Packaging Technology
Source: Professor Dr. Reichl, Fraunhofer IZM, Berlin Germany
Innovative Miniaturized Packaging
47
Strategic ConcernsStrategic Concerns
• Given flow of technology & manufacturing betweencountries, many key component industries are looking foralternative business strategies to maintain leadership
• Innovative approaches to Enterprise IT & supply chainmanagement which increase ROI in a predictable way
• EMSs are being asked to provide R&D leadership whilekeeping overhead low – this may not be a viable businessstrategy
• The materials supply base does not have adequate demand(at high enough margins) to drive many of the needed newmaterials
• Impact of Environmental Compliance on financials,reliability, & IT infrastructure
• Reliability of less mature material systems
Key Recommendations
49
Key RecommendationsKey Recommendations
iNEMI Technical Projects
• Establish a SiP TIG to address process, materials, equipment, &reliability gaps.
• Establish a project in the interconnect arena that explores dimensionalstability of materials used in PWB manufacturing (driven by fine pitchand microvia technology).
• Establish a research project on new organic materials with improvedproperties for electronics packaging.
Design
• Develop co-design capabilities of mechanical, thermal, and electricalperformance of the entire chip, package, & heat removal structures.
• Develop improved design tools for emerging technologies likeembedded passives and optoelectronic PWBs.
Manufacturing Technology
• Develop automated printing, dispensing, placement, and reworkequipment capable of the pitch requirements for SiP packageassembly at current process speeds.
50
Key RecommendationsKey Recommendations
Materials Development
• Low cost, higher thermal conductivity, packaging materials, such asadhesives, thermal pastes, and thermal spreaders.
• New interconnect technologies deploying nano-materials to supportdecreased pitch and increased interconnect frequencies.
• Characterize & improve reliability of material systems.
Energy and the Environment
• Development & implementation of scientific methodologies to assesstrue environmental impacts of materials and potential trade-offs foralternatives.
• Develop a common, straightforward definition of sustainability that:
– Can be applied quantitatively at the business level
– Can be easily communicated to stakeholders
– Can be used to set targets
Technology Development
• Thermal Management of high power densities
• Develop reconfigurable or adaptive radio transceivers.
51
Some applications and benefits of NanotechnologySome applications and benefits of Nanotechnology
(Motorola)(Motorola)
Nano Composites: stronger, tougher, stiffer,
lighter materials (adhesives, structural,thermal,
electronic, optical functionality)
Nano antennas: Nano scale fractal
antennas for multiple spectra and
broadband
Nano displays: Large, lower cost
and brighter displays based on
embedded carbon nanotubes
Nano power: High capacity power sources
(storage, conversion, advanced fuel cells,
photonic energy), parasitic energy harvesting,
nanobiotech related functionality
Nano sensors: smaller, more sensitive Nano
scale sensors for bio, optical, chemical and
physical sensing
Major Trends
53
Major Trends Major Trends –– Current & Future Current & Future
• Environmental considerations will expand
– RoHS/WEEE is the beginning
– Significant impact to supply chain/information needs
– Design for Environment/Sustainability
– Defensive posture has reduced industry’s influence onregulations
• Mfg. migration to low cost regions continues
– Some corrections seen due to security/logistics costs
– Commodity design is following
• SiP is a major trend in portable products
– Infrastructure issues need attention
– Could find use in other sectors where mixed IC technologiesare used
• Lack of integrated design/simulation tools is:
– Delaying new technology adoption
– Impacting product time to market
54
Major Trends Major Trends –– Current & Future Current & Future
• The predicted end of semiconductor scalingcould have major implications:
– Non classical CMOS
– Beyond CMOS
– Increased thermal challenges
– Significant impact to packaging/interconnect
• Nanotechnology has the potential to dramaticallyeffect electronics:
– Materials
– Displays
– Sensors
– Power
• Innovation thrusts have become very fashionable
– Many are policy oriented
– iNEMI can add value by creating research vision.
Innovation Challenge
56
Closing Needs through Research:Closing Needs through Research:
A Challenge to be StrategicA Challenge to be Strategic
• A number of Needs have appeared since the1994 Roadmap.
• We need to be innovative and look for disruptivebusiness & technology Solutions to these Needs.
• We need to identify the research areas thatwould provide the technology Solutions to theseNeeds.
For example:
– Material Needs: Nanomaterials
– Manufacturing Processes: flexibility andreconfigurability
– Design: Rapid Modeling of Complex Systems
57
The Next Great ChallengeThe Next Great Challenge
The End of Semiconductor ScalingThe End of Semiconductor Scaling
• The anticipated end to semiconductor scaling willcreate a major technology shift in the industry:
• Implementation of advanced, non-classical CMOSdevices with enhanced drive current
• Identification, selection, and implementation ofadvanced devices (beyond-CMOS)
• Increased need for improved cooling
• Innovative Packaging for giga-function systems
• Innovation must begin today to meet these needs
• iNEMI Innovation Leadership Forum - 9/15, 9/16• Convened key industry, government, university and business
leaders
• Discussed issues and developed a Research Vision that willfocus investments on the right topics.
58
Innovation Forum ResultsInnovation Forum Results
Major Accomplishments:
1. Identification and participation of leaders inelectronics manufacturing innovation.
2. Great descriptions of all levels of innovation (i.e.identification of "next big things", some levelof supply chain technology related to electronicsmanufacturing, and innovation process/businessmodel strategies).
3. Identification of shortcomings/limitations ingovernment policy (related to innovation).
Next steps:
1. Create Innovation/Research Vision
2. Communicate to Research Stakeholders
3. Develop plan for iNEMI “next big thing”.
59
Electronic Materials
$62Bn
ActiveComponents
$197Bn
IC AssemblyServices$6.2Bn
PassiveComponents
$143Bn
EMSAssembly$110Bn
2003Finished
Equipment$950Bn
VALUE CREATION IN THE SUPPLY CHAINVALUE CREATION IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN
Typical Companies
Sumitomo Bakelite,
DuPont, Ablestik
Intel, STMicro,
LSI Logic
Amkor,
ASE, SPIL
Tyco, Molex,
AVX, Sharp
Solectron,
Sanmina-SCI,
Flextronics
Dell, HP, Cisco,
Nokia, Teradyne,
Visteon, Siemens
GrossMargin
30% 40% 12% 25% 7% 30%
OperatingMargin
10% 15% 8% 8% 2.5% 8%
R&D 7% 15% 2% 5% <1% 8%
MarginValue
$6Bn $30Bn $0.5Bn $11Bn $3Bn $76Bn
R&DValue
$4Bn $30Bn $0.1Bn $7Bn <$1Bn $76Bn
N94.034bes-chain
%TotalR&D 3% 25% 64%
Prismark
60
Wake Up Call: Vision Focus AreasWake Up Call: Vision Focus Areas
• Need 2005 Sputnik equivalent of “Wake up” or rallying call.Must have social value. Could it be:
– Energy: reduce imports by P% in N years…..
– Security/Safety: post 9/11….
– Health Care: ex. 30min of paperwork for every hourof patient care, 98K avoidable deaths/yr
– Data/Telecom: from New Orleans breakdown
• Define national goals with specific timelines.
• Rallying call with a face
• Credible spokesperson should make the call
– Credibility issue with Mars landing vision
• Must convince 5th precinct – the public
61
Guiding principles in the newGuiding principles in the new
innovation modelinnovation model
Active co-innovators
Customer experience
Passive users
Rigid
Patents
FlexibleInnovation processes
Success metrics
Role of customers
Not invented here
Top-down control
Own and protect
Best from anywhere
Share and expand
Corporate ethos
Attitude toward IP
Symbiotic partnershipsGovernance
Global Product development networks
Monolithic Product Development
Source: Forrester Research-Navi Radjou
Pb-free Assembly:
Closing Gaps
63
Closing Gaps: EnvironmentalClosing Gaps: Environmental
Projects to Eliminate Pb SolderProjects to Eliminate Pb Solder
• 1998 Roadmap identified the technology gap.
• Phase I project developed the alloy, process,components and reliability from 1999-2002.
Results:
– The iNEMI efforts accelerated theestablishment of SAC alloys as the standardand reduced the effort in each membercompany.
• Phase II projects have expanded the technologybase to include assembly and rework of largecomplex PWB assemblies.
64
Closing Gaps: EnvironmentalClosing Gaps: Environmental
Projects to Eliminate Pb SolderProjects to Eliminate Pb Solder
• 2002 Roadmap identified a number of business Issues toconvert to a Pb-free supply chain.
• Five Phase III project teams have addressed these supplychain transition issues.
• Phase IV projects have been established to close recentlyidentified technology gaps:
– Wave/selective solder
– Mixed assemblies (Pb-free BGA’s in a SnPb assemblyprocess)
– Pb-free surface finishes
– Pb-free Rework Optimization
– Pb-free DPMO
– Pb-free Nano-solder
– High Reliability RoHS Compliance
65
Lead-Free AssemblyChair: Edwin Bradley, PhD Motorola
Co-Chair: Rick Charbonneau
Environmentally ConsciousElectronics (ECE) Technology
Integration Group (TIG)
Tin Whisker Accel. Tests Chair: Valeska Schroeder, HP Co-Chairs: Jack McCullen, Intel
Mark Kwoka, Intersil
Tin Whisker Modeling Chair: George Galyon, IBM
Co-Chair: Maureen Williams, NIST
Tin Whisker Users GroupChairs: Joe Smetana, Alcatel
Richard Coyle, Lucent
Lead-Free Assembly & Rework Chairs: Jerry Gleason, HP
Charlie Reynolds, IBM
RoHS Transition Task GroupChair: Dave McCarron, Dell
Projects:Component Supply Chain Readiness
Chair: John OldendorfComponent and Board Marking
Chair: Vivek Gupta, IntelAssembly Process Specifications
Chair: Frank Grano, -SCIMaterials Declarations
Chair: Nancy Bolinger, IBM
Complet
e
Pb-free Wave Soldering
Chair: Denis Barbini, Vitronics Soltec
Co-chair Paul Wang, Microsoft
Complet
e
Complet
e
Pb-free Rework Optimization Chair: Jasbir Bath, Solectron
Halogen-free Chair: Steve Tisdale, Intel
RoHS High Rel Chair: Mike Davisson, Agilent
Co-Chair: Joe Smetana, Alcatel
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Board Assembly ProjectsBoard Assembly Projects
Board Assembly TIGChair: Tom Pearson, Intel
Pb-Free BGAs in SnPbAssemblies
Chair: Robert Kinyanjui,Sanmina-SCICo-chair: Charan Gurumurthy,Intel
Pb -Free Assembly Substrate Surface Finishes
Chair: Keith Newman, Sun Microsystems, Co-chair: Charan, Gurumurthy, Intel
SMT Reel Labeling
Chair: Patrick Figueroa, DelphiElectronics & Safety
Pb-free Nano-solder
Chair: Andrew Skipor, Motorola
Pb-free DPMO
Chair: Andrew Dugenske, GeorgiaInstitute of Technology
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• Gap analysis completed
• 5 year plans created
• Basis for future projects
• Distributed to iNEMImembers
2005 Technical Plan2005 Technical Plan
2005 Research
Priorities Document
69
Closing Gaps: Research PrioritiesClosing Gaps: Research Priorities
DocumentDocument
• 2004 Roadmap identified a number of R&D issuesthat were beyond tactical project timing
• Priorities summarized in a 2005 iNEMI ResearchDocument
• Seven product sector drivers:
– SIP
– Medical
– Office/Large Business Systems
– Automotive
– Aerospace / Defense
– Netcom
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2005 Research Priorities2005 Research Priorities
Research
Priorities
• Gap analysis completed• 10 year priorities created• Distributed to members &
others• Contents:
– Technology Research Needs byProduct Sector
– Priorities Summarized byResearch Area• Manufacturing Processes• System Integration• Materials & Reliability• Energy and the Environment• Design
– Significant Gaps and Issuesfrom Roadmap
– Options for Innovation
2007 Roadmap
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2007 Product Emulator Groups2007 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)(PEGs)
Emulators Characteristics
Portable / Consumer High volume Consumer Products for which cost is the primary driver including Hand held, battery -powered
products driven by size and weight reduction
Office Systems / Large Business /
Communication Systems
Products which seek maximum performance from a few
thousand dollar cost limit to literally no cost limit
Medical Products Products which must operate within a high ly reliab le
environment
Automotive Products which must operate in an automotive
environment
Defense and Aerospace Products which must operate in extreme environments
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2007 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)2007 Technology Working Groups (TWGs)
Organic SubstratesBoard
Assembly Customer
RF Components &Subsystems
OptoelectronicsOrganic & Printed Electronics
Energy Storage Systems
Modeling, Simulation,and Design
PackagingSemiconductor
Technology
Final Assembly
Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical)
Passive Components
Product LifecycleInformation
Management (PLIM)
Test, Inspection &Measurement
EnvironmentallyConsciousElectronics
Ceramic Substrates
ThermalManagement
Connectors
Sensors
Red=Business Green=Engineering Blue=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem
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2007 Product Emulator Groups2007 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs)(PEGs)
Product Emulator Chair(s) 2004 Chair(s) 2006
Automotive Products Jim Spall, Delphi Jim Spall *
Aerospace/Defense Products William E. Murphy, Lockheed
Martin
William E. Murphy *
Medical Products Terry Dishongh, Intel Anthony Primavera, Guidant Terry Disho ngh, Intel
Consumer / Portable Products Gerry Bird, 3M Susan Noe , 3M *
Office/Large Business System
Products
Tom Pearson, Intel
George Katopis, IBM
Erich Klink, IBM
Erich Klink, IBM Europe
Tom Pearson, Intel
Network, Data, Telecom Mike Schabel, Lucent Rolled Into Office /Large
Business Systems for 2007 Need Co -Chair*
2007 Technology Working Group (TWGs)2007 Technology Working Group (TWGs)
Business Processes / Technologies Chair(s) Co-Chair(s)
Product Lifecycle Information Mgmt. Eric Simmon, NIST Joanne Friedman, Connekted
Design Technologies
Modeling, Simulation & Design Sanjeev Sath e, ASE S.B. Park, Binghamton U. Yi -Shao Lai , ASE
Environmentally Conscious Electronics
Mark Newton, Dell Joe Johnson, Cisco
Thermal Management Cam Murray, Carl Fisher 3M
Manufacturing Technologies
Board Assembly Dongkai Shangguan, Flextronics David G eiger, Flextronics Ravi Bhatkal, Cookson
Final Assembly Steven Davidson , Delphi Reijo Tuokko, Tampere U.
Test, Inspection & Measurement Michael Reagin , Delphi Michael J. Smith, Teradyne
2007 TWG Leadership (cont.)2007 TWG Leadership (cont.)
Component / Subsystem Technologies Chair(s) Co-Chair(s)
Semiconductor Technology Paolo Gargini, Intel Alan K. Allan, Intel
Optoelectronics Rick Clayton, Consultant Laura Turbini, CMAP
Passive Components Philip Lessner, Kemet Joseph Dougherty, PSU
Packaging Joseph Adam, Skyworks Solutions
Bill Bottoms, NanoNexus
Connectors John MacWilliams, Consultant
RF Components & Subsystems Eric Strid, Cascade Microtech J. Stevenson Kenney, GIT John Barr, Agilent , V.J. Nair, Intel
Sensors Tim McBride, Sensata Technologie s
Mike Azarian, U. Maryland
Interconnect Substrates (Ceramic) Howard Imhof, Metalor Ton Schless, Midas Vision
Energy Storage & Conversion Systems Dan Doughty, Sandia Labs Ralph Brodd, Broddarp Randhir Malik, IBM
Interconnect Substrates (Organic) John T. Fi sher, Consultant Henry Utsunomiya, Consultant
Mass Data Storage Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associates
Roger F. Hoyt, Retired
Organic & Printed Electronics Dan Gamota, Motorola Jan Obrzut, NIST Jie Zhang, Motorola
77
iNEMI
Optoelectronics
TWG
Optoelectronics andOptical Storage
InterconnectSubstrates—Ceramic
InterconnectSubstrates—Organic
Magnetic andOptical Storage
Supply ChainManagement
Semiconductors
iNEMI Roadmap
iNEMI
Product
Lifecycle
Information
Management
TWG
iNEMI
Mass Data
Storage TWG
iNEMI /
IPC/JIEP
Interconnect
TWG
iNEMI / ITRS
Packaging
TWG
iNEMIBoard Assy
TWG
9 Contributing Organizations9 Contributing Organizations
78
Roadmap Cooperation with SMTARoadmap Cooperation with SMTA
• Formal 2007 iNEMI Roadmap cycle began atSMTAI, 9/30/05 .
– Product Emulator Group’s (PEG’s) started the processby reviewing emulators and suggesting changes
• SMTA is working with iNEMI to continue toimprove educational opportunities for theirmembers.
– iNEMI Roadmap Monthly Newsletter Placed on SMTAWebsite For Members Information
– iNEMI is represented by Chuck Richardson
• iNEMI Meetings and this roadmap presentationare being held in conjunction with SMTAI 2006.
79
2007 Roadmap Schedule2007 Roadmap Schedule
• 3Q2005: Select Product Sector Champions, teams and refine data charts
• 3/4Q05: Product Sector Champions Develop Emulators
– September 6, 2005 – Teleconference with P.E. Group Chairs
– September 30, 2005 Roadmap Kick-off with PEG/TWG/TC at SMTAI
– November 16, 2005 European Kick-off at Productronica
– December 2005 review meeting with TC on PEG Emulators
• 2004 chapter, format, Exec. Summary mailed to each TWG chair (Word 6.0)1/4/2006
• Organizing Teleconference with TWG Chairs 1/23/2006
• February 2006 PEG Workshop/TWG Kick-off at APEX Meeting in Anaheim:
– Product Sector Tables Nearly Complete – Chapter Draft Written
– Cross Cut Issues Addressed• April 5, 2006 - Roadmap European Workshop – Semicon Europa, Munich
• May 8, 2006 Telecon With TWG Chairs
• May 17, 2006 – Open Roadmap Presentation in Herndon, VA
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2007 Roadmap Schedule - Continued2007 Roadmap Schedule - Continued
• June 27 - Roadmap Workshop HDP ’06 Shanghai
• July 1, 2006 – TWG Drafts Due for TC Review
• August 9,10, 2006 – TC Face-to-Face Review with
TWG Chairs in Kokomo (Delphi)
• September, 2006 – Council Review of Key Issues
and Preliminary Summary @ SMTAI, Final
Roadmap Chapters Due 9/22/06
• October 31, 2006 – Edit, Prepare App. A-D, Exec.
Summary
• November 20, 2006 – Go To “Press”
• December 4, 2006 – Ship to Members
• Feb, 2007 – Industry Release at APEX
Cost-Effective Supply ChainCost-Effective Supply Chain
Technology DeploymentTechnology Deployment
• iNEMI roadmaps/gap analyses help set the agenda forelectronics industry.
• iNEMI is providing the Leadership required to workemerging technologies/opportunities.
• iNEMI is Leveraging R&D investments (academia &government) to address industry’s agenda.
• Projects lead to improved deployment (faster, better,lower cost) created across supply chain.
• Standards efforts (with IPC, EIA, IEEE, andRosettaNet) are encouraging broad utilization ofemerging technologies/solutions.
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www.inemi.orgwww.inemi.orgEmail contacts:Email contacts:
Chuck RichardsonChuck Richardson
[email protected]@inemi.org
Bob PfahlBob Pfahl
[email protected]@inemi.org