technology foresight and knowledge creation - predicting
TRANSCRIPT
IMPROVING THE EFFICIENCY OF PRESENT TECHNOLOGY
A more efficient engine
SWITCHING TECHNOLOGY TO PERFORM THE SAME TASK An electric car
MODIFYING THE TASK Modern public transportation
MAKING WIDE REACHING CHANGES TO WHAT IS DONE
Removing the need to move
IMPROVING ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
22/11/2013 2
Target Setting
Hype Chart 1/06
Handset Sensors
NFC
Mobile Broadcast TV Ajax Mash-ups / Web 2.0
3.9 / 4G
Mobile Linux
MVNOs
”Long Tail”
Mobile music
Mobile search
WiMax
Enterprise mobile apps
Wireless email
VoIP
LBS
RSS
Technology Trigger
Peak of inflated expectations
Trough of disillusionment
Slope of enlightment
Plateau of productivity
Time to reach plateau 2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-
MATURITY
VISI
BIL
ITY
Predicting the Unpredictable
Wireless Foresight – Scenarios of the Mobile World in 2015. Karlson et al, Wiley 2003 Nokia Mobile Phones scenarios: 1. Autumn Harvest 2. Speech Goes Mobile 3. Multimedia Jungle Ten years is long time and 20 is almost infinity
Dynamics of Basic Research
1844
TelegraphMorse
1870
ElectromagnetismMaxwell
1888
ElectromagneticwavesHertz
1896
WirelesstelegraphyMarconi
1904
Electron tube Fleming
1925
RadarAppletonBarnett
1948
TransistorBardeenBrattain
Shockley
1981
Analogcellular
SystemsNMT andAMPS arelaunched
The age ofDigital
CellularSystems isstarting, firstGSM call in
Helsinki
1876
TelephoneBell
1917
1947
CellularsystemconceptAT&T
1958
IntegratedcircuitsTexas
Instruments
1971
The firstmicro
processorIntel 4004
FourierAnalysisFourier
InformationTheory
ShannonSamplingTheoryNyquist
1928
SpectralAnalysisWiener
1930
Algorithms andcomputation
Turing
1936 1948
EstimationTheoryWiener
1942
1940
First concepts forspread spectrum
systems
1822
TeletrafficTheoryErlang
Digital signalprocessor
TexasInstruments
1983 1991
CodingTheory
Hamming
1950
FastFourier
TransformCooleyTukey
1965
MarkovChain
StochasticProcessMarkov
1900
PoissonProcessPoisson
1837
1933
FMmodulationArmstrong
GaloisField
Galois
1846
Ian F. Akyildiz, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA Holland Cheng, University of California, USA Holly Jimison, Oregon Health & Science University, USA Pavel Jungwirth, Academy of Sciences, Tsekki Wei Zhang, University of Texas, USA Michael Pavel, Oregon Health & Science University, USA Stefan Kurz, ETAS GmbH, Stuttgart, Saksa Ralf Metzler, Technical University of Munich, Saksa Günter Steinmeyer, Max-Born-Institut für Nichtlineare Optik und Kurzzeitspektroskopie, Saksa Manos M. Tentzeris,Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
Research is International Current FiDiPro-professors at TUT
ASATIANI, ALEKSANDRE – Georgian, Research topic: Impact of cloud-based enterprise information systems on organization. BADHAM, MARK – Australian, Research topic: Media management, media-corporate communications symbiotic relationship. DEL CARPIO VEGA, LUIS FELIPE – Peruvian, Research topic: Wireless access design for beyond 4G systems. ELISCHKA, SYNES – Austrian, Research topic: Audience engagement and the future of cinema. ISLAM, HASAN – Bangladeshi, Research topic: Information centric networking in challenged environments. SCEPANOVIC, SANJA – Montenegrin, Research topic: Social network analysis / human social psychology, human dynamics. VENTURA, EMANUELE – Italian, Research topic: Combinatorial commutative algebra and its applications to pure and applied mathematics. VU BA TIEN, DUNG – Vietnamese, Research topic: Energy-efficiency in ICT and mobile computing. WANG, SHUCHEN – Taiwanese, Research topic: Cultural heritage in the digital age.
Bit Bang 6 Foreign Participants
Telecommunications Equipment US patents 2006: Motorola 522, Nokia 501, Cisco 453, Lucent 410,Ericsson 389, Nortel 382, Qualcomm 211 2008: Nokia 730, Alcatel-Lucent 696, Cisco 660, Motorola 631, Qualcomm 284, Ericsson 277, Nortel 274 2010: Cisco 950, Alcatel-Lucent 737, Nokia 702, Motorola 508, Qualcomm 389, Ericsson 285, Nortel 245
Source IEEE Spectrum, Patent Power 2006, 2008 and 2010
Goliaths’ Fight for IPR, Who Makes 6G?
• Google Earth • Google Maps • Google Android • Google Scholar • Gmail • Google Translate • Google Chrome • You Tube •Etc.
Internet”Monopolies” Born in 10 Years
- Search, Big Data, Skype, Social media, .. - Smart everything, - China, Korea
Founded in 1988
Wireless Traffic Beats Moore’s Law
Internet traffic is doubling in less than 3 years Mobile data is doubling annually 7.4 % of Internet traffic in 2014
• PoS terminal network • 6000 nodes • 14 million measurements/hr • Downtime < 5 min in 4 years
Mobile operator DNA 120k elements monitored in real time
Large Scale Systems
Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, says that within the next three years, his company aims to produce systems capable of safely taking the helm for 90 percent of miles driven.
Car and Smart Phone are Almost the Same!
Point-to-point connections
LIN, CAN, Flexray, MOST
central Gateway
Network Management
Comm protocols: ISO-TP, BAP, etc
High End Vector Graphics
Accelerator logic
Frame buffer
CTRL ASIP
Ext IO S
oC bus
Sensor subsystem Peripheral bus
I2C
Pre-processing Ext IO
Connectivity Peripheral bus
BT USB I2C
Ext IO
SSI Irda UART
Storage
Controller +Security
+RM Ext IO
CF Nano disk MStick OMAP
MCU
Low-end Vector graphics
subsystem
SoC bus Ext IO
M DMA
Imaging & Audio
MCU
Camera Subsystem
ASIP M
SoC bus
Ext IO
DMA
Multiradio MCU L2/3
MCU L1
WLAN WCDMA
M SoC bus
EGPRS
Ext IO RF DMA
Interconnections & Protocols
High End Game Engine
SoC bus
Ext IO
MCU M
First Nanotube IC’s on Plastic
Inverters
Ring oscillators (3, 11, 21 stages)
NOR and NAND logic gates
RS- and D- flip-flops
Sun et al,Nature Nanotechnology (2011) 6