technix 2009 january, 11, 2009 from the paved state back to the garden state mobility without...
TRANSCRIPT
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
From the Paved State
Back to the Garden State
Mobility without Highways for
New Jersey Alain L. Kornhauser
Professor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Transportation Research Program
Princeton University
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Background• I’ve been dabbling in PRT for over 35 years• In many ways, I’m very disappointed in our lack of
progress:– A long time ago: Exec. Director of APTA said:
“Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future…And Always will be!!!”
• But we have made progress:– Morgantown has proven that it can be done– APMs are a standard of every modern airport– Automation and computer controls have become ubiquitous,
reliable and cheap– There is broad movement towards energy independence and
alternatives to the petroleum economy
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
So…
• Premise:– NJ in 2009 is very different from NJ in 1909
• A look at what might be NJ’s Mobility in 2109(or before)
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
So…1889
1973
1909 1989
2073
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/PRT_Of467F07/PRT_NJ_Orf467F07_FinalReport.pdf
PRT as the Dominant Mode.
What would it take?
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
PRT as the Dominant Mode. What would it take?
• Had my undergrad Transportation Systems Analysis class (Orf 467) looking at this for each of the past 3 years
• Def. “Dominant Mode”: Serve >90% of all intra NJ trips + access to existing mass transit serving NYC and Phila
• Def. “Serve”: Less than 5 minute walk to a station; stations all interconnected; all existing rail mass transit connected/
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Sketch Planning Process• Precisely geolocate all trip ends by purpose
• Extensive use Google Earth and Msft. Virtual Earth to provide spatial reality perspective to trip end concentrations and Physical constraints
• Manually locate all stations and interconnection
• Analytically assign the trip end demand to stations and flow the trips on the interconnected network.
• Manually iterate the location of stations and interconnection
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Basic NJ Transport StatsElement Value
Population (2006 est.) 8.725 million
Growth rate 3.7% (6.4% nw)
Population density 1,134.5 ppsm (highest in US)
190ppsm (Salem) – 12,800pps (Hudson)
Persons < 5 years old 6%
Persons 5-17 18%
Persons 18-64 63%
Persons 65 and over 13%
Total Person trips per day 29.46M
2007 $ Spent on Personal Mobility by NJ Citizens (mostly on Automobile)
$24B
Source of Electricity Generation Nuclear: 45%; Natural Gas: 41%; Renewables: < 0.2%
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Glouchester County
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Essex County
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Middlesex County
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Morris County
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Passaic County
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Sussex County
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Union County
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Warren County
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Number of Stations by County & Main Trip EndCounty Transp School Home Recre Office Industry Public Shop Religious MultiUse Other TOTAL
Atlantic -
17
-
1 18 114 8 - 3 30 - 191
Bergen
28 217 394
47 81 37 15 32 17 249 -
1,117
Burlington
1 69
24
52
188 76 40 54 2 85 6 597
Cape May
11 30 173
46 17 217 38 18 47 351 28
976
Cumberland
2 37 106
7 68 86 24 27 2 78 -
437
Essex
18 30 102
237 9 9 15 92 - 83 -
595
Gloucester
2 103 192
9 20 9 3 13 6 55 -
412
Hudson
7 37
58
154 12 15 7 113 - 64 - 467
Hunterdon
2 39 107
26 21 34 25 44 9 78 20
405
Mercer
5 85
43
18 89 22 21 28 7 89 6 413
Middlesex
11 15 224
16 15 88 - 2 - 70 3
444
Monmouth
31 25
75
27 62 6 8 10 19 66 6 335
Morris
14 125 408
55 50 12 16 16 20 127 15
858
Ocean
11 105
55
60 76 69 52 56 - 42 14 540
Passaic
38 152 285
110
104 65 38 57 71 262 3
1,185
Salem
4 26
45
5 73 27 13 24 1 67 - 285
Somerset
7 39 330
19 31 10 2 23 6 94 7
568
Sussex
3 56
74
68 51 41 16 38 4 37 21 409
Union
16 48
99
112 91 26 45 57 - 83 - 577
Warren
11 42 217
45 55 32 28 20 1 22 11
484
TOALS 222
1,297
3,011
1,114
1,131 995
414
724 215 2,032 140
11,295
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
County Stations Miles County Stations Miles
Atlantic 191 526 Middlesex 444 679
Bergen 1,117 878 Monmouth 335 565
Burlington 597 488 Morris 858 694
Camden 482 355 Ocean 540 1,166
Cape May 976 497 Passaic 1185 1,360
Cumberland 437 1,009 Salem 285 772
Essex 595 295 Somerset 568 433
Gloucester 412 435 Sussex 409 764
Hudson 467 122 Union 577 254
Hunterdon 405 483 Warren 484 437
Mercer 413 403 Total 11,295 12,261
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Bottom Line
Element Value
PRT Trips per day (90%) 26.51M
Peak hour trips (15%) 3.98M
Fleet size 530K
Fleet Cost $B $53B @ $100K/vehicle
Stations 11,295
Station Cost $28B @ $2M/Station
Guideway 12,265 miles
Guideway Cost $61B @ $5M/mile
Total Capital Cost $143B
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Conclusions• It’s a lot• It does a lot• It’s one design focused on existing land use / mobility
patterns• We should be able to do better
• Thank you
www.princeton.edu/~alaink
January, 11, 2009TECHNIX 2009
Briefly on Energy
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf