technical session 4 – model development & calibration 4.1 calibration of the trans model for...

Technical Session 4 –

Model Development & Calibration

4.1 Calibration of the TRANS Model for the National Capital Region (Ottawa-Hull)

Don Stephens P. Eng.Don Stephens P. Eng.Manager, Data ModelingManager, Data Modeling and Forecasting and Forecasting Region of Ottawa Carleton Region of Ottawa Carleton

Mark Campbell P.Eng.Mark Campbell P.Eng.Senior Transportation Planner Senior Transportation Planner

Maxim Morrison HershfieldMaxim Morrison Hershfield

TRANS/NCR 3 min

1995 Model Calibration 12min

A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region


regions, transit authorities, provincial ministries and regions, transit authorities, provincial ministries and federal governmentfederal government

joint cooperation in areas of common interestjoint cooperation in areas of common interest modelingmodeling data collectiondata collection


National Capital Region

MRC

CUO

RMOC

Ott awa

River

PONTIAC

CHELSEA

CANTLEY

WESTCARLETON

KANATA

GOULBOURN

RIDEAU

OSGOODE

CUMBERLAND

GLOUCESTERNEPEAN

OTTAWA

ROCKCLIFFE PARKVANIER

BUCKINGHAM

MASSONGATINEAU

AYLMERHULL

VALDES

MONTS

L'ANGE-GARDIEN

LA PÊCHE

NOTRE DAMEDE LA SALETTE

REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY

OF OTTAWA-CARLETON

MUNICIPALITÉ RÉGIONALE DE

COMTÉ COLLINES-DE-L'OUTAOUAIS

COMMUNAUTÉ URBAINE

DE L'OUTAOUAIS

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

RMOC

MRC

CUO

POPULATIONPOPULATION

1,100,0001,100,000

EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT

540,000540,000


Central Area

POPULATIONPOPULATION

60,00060,000

NON AUTO MODESNON AUTO MODES

>55%>55%

EMPLOYMENTEMPLOYMENT

150,000150,000


Traffic Zones/Screenlines

HULLHULLALYMERALYMER GATINEAUGATINEAU

ORLEANSORLEANS

KANATAKANATA

OTTAWAOTTAWA

BARRHAVENBARRHAVEN

Interprovincial

GreenbeltGreenbelt

Eag

leso

n

CNR WestCNR East

Gre

en’s

Cr

Russell/417

CPRRideauCentral

RideauNorth


Trips per Day

Population

Employment

Dwelling Units0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Past Surveys

OHATS ’63

871,000

‘72 Survey

1,438,000

‘77 Survey

1,569,000

‘86 Survey

2,297,000

‘95 Survey 2,720,000


1995 NCR OD Survey Sept to Dec’95

Telephone SurveyTelephone Survey

- 21,000 interviews/households- 21,000 interviews/households

- 56,000 persons- 56,000 persons

- 145,000 trips- 145,000 trips

- 5 to 20 % sample- 5 to 20 % sample

TTRRAANNSS

Public Transit

Cycle

Auto Driver/Passenger

Walk


TRANS MODEL

1995 CALIBRATION


1995 TRANS MODEL1995 TRANS MODEL

INTER-ZONALTRIPS

MODALSPLIT

MODEL

INTRA-ZONALTRIPS

ASSIGNMENT

EXTERNALTRIP TABLE

OBSERVEDMODE SPLIT

PEAK HOURFACTORS BY

TRIP PURPOSE

TRIPGENERATION

(PM PEAKPERIOD)

TRIPDISTRIBUTION


NETWORK INNOVATIONS

• Network outside Greenbelt expanded in detailNetwork outside Greenbelt expanded in detail

• Auto volume delay functions based on posted Auto volume delay functions based on posted speed and road capacityspeed and road capacity

• Transit volume delay functions dependant on Transit volume delay functions dependant on auto speeds along shared linksauto speeds along shared links

• Macros convert ultimate network to 1995 and Macros convert ultimate network to 1995 and 2021 networks2021 networks


45

800

50

convention is fd ( capacity/2 ) ( first digit of posted speed )

fd45 = 50 *60/(length*1.3 )* (1+ .6 * ((volau + volad)/ (lanes* 800))^4)

AUTO VOLUME DELAY FUNCTIONS

Posted Nominal Capacity ....Speed 400 600 800 1000

20 22 32 42 52 ....

30 23 33 43 53 ....

40 24 34 44 54 ....

50 25 35 45 55 ....

60 26 36 46 56 ....

70 27 37 47 57 ....

.... .... .... .... .... ....


TRANSIT VOLUME DELAY FUNCTIONS

• ttf 70 = auto time on link * 1.6ttf 70 = auto time on link * 1.6 (transit route shared with private vehicles)

• ttf 73 = auto time on link * 2.5ttf 73 = auto time on link * 2.5 ( several CBD routes)

• ttf 71 = (length/15) * 60ttf 71 = (length/15) * 60 ( bus only lanes with 15 kph along the roadway)

• ttf 72 = (length/48) * 60ttf 72 = (length/48) * 60 ( transitway links with average speed of 48 kph)

• ttf 74 = (length/70) * 60ttf 74 = (length/70) * 60 ( bus-only lanes along highways, average speed 70 kph)


Trip Purpose Regression Equation R^2

Work to Home

SecondarySchoolto Home

PRODUCTION.446 * EMP(other) Ottawa and Hull central areas 0.97

.390 * EMP(other) Ontario 0.94

.433 * EMP(other) Quebec 0.91

ATTRACTION.178 * POP 25-44 + .192 * POP 45-64 Ottawa and Hull

central areas0.97

.348 * POP 25-44 + .258 * POP 45-64 Ontario 0.98

.405 * POP 25-44 + .117 * POP 45-64 Quebec 0.99

PRODUCTION

ATTRACTION

.142 * OD_SCHS 0.59

.07072 * POP 15-24 + .121 * POP 10 -14 0.77

TRIP GENERATION EQUATIONS

EMP (other): total employment minus retail employmentPop 25-44: population in age cohortOD_SCHS: secondary school enrollment


Regression Equation R^2 Trip Purpose

Post Sec_ Sch to Home

Other to Home

Non Home Based

Leave Home

PRODUCTION .117 * POST_SEC_ENROLLMENT 0.96

ATTRACTION .074 * POP15-24 + .0059 * POP25-44 0.83

PRODUCTION .052 * POP + .0711 * EMP + 1.947 * GLA 0.85

ATTRACTION .115 * POP 0.96

PRODUCTION .0542 * DWEL + .176 * EMP + .578 * GLA 0.93

ATTRACTION .0902 * EMP + .128 * DWEL + 1.69 * GLA 0.89

PRODUCTION .187 * DWEL 0.9

ATTRACTION .062 * EMP + 1.06 * GLA 0.57

TRIP GENERATION EQUATIONS

CONT...


TRIP GENERATION (1995 LAND USE)

Trip Purpose PM Peak Period Trips

PM Peak Hour Factors

PM Peak Hour Trips

Work to Home Production 163,0000.502

81,800Attraction 162,000 81,300

SSch to Home Production 16,600

0.2243,700

Attraction 16,700 3,700

Post SSch to Home Production 9,0000.347

3,100Attraction 11,000 3,800

Other to Home Production 108,000

0.43346,800


Non Home Based Production 108,0000.440

47,500Attraction 111,000 48,800

Leave Home Production 70,000

0.40028,000


Total Production 474,600 210,900Attraction 452,700 202,000


TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODELTRIP DISTRIBUTION MODEL

Work to HomeWork to Home

• GravityGravity• 2 Dimensional2 Dimensional• 4 Equations4 Equations

- Ontario to Ontario- Ontario to Ontario- Ontario to Quebec- Ontario to Quebec- Quebec to Quebec- Quebec to Quebec- Quebec to Ontario- Quebec to Ontario

Remaining Trip PurposesRemaining Trip Purposes

Gravity Model, Same Style Gravity Model, Same Style as the Work to Home Modelas the Work to Home Model


MODAL SPLIT MODELMODAL SPLIT MODEL

• 2 Modes2 Modes - Auto Persons & Auto Vehicles- Auto Persons & Auto Vehicles - Transit- Transit

• Logit ModelLogit Model - Work to Home (UTA)- Work to Home (UTA) - School to Home (UTA)- School to Home (UTA)

• Diversion CurvesDiversion Curves - All Other Trips- All Other Trips


Mode Trip Cost Total Travel Time Number of Vehicles Province Constantper Household

Auto Person -0.008641 -0.0096

Transit -0.008641 -0.0096 -1.738 -0.8367 0.9091

Auto cost -- Consists of fuel consumption and a parking cost in cents.Transit fare -- Transit fare in cents Veh/household -- Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more than 1 vehicle per household. Province -- 0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents. Travel Time -- Time in minutes to travel from trip origin to trip destination.

Changing the variables will in turn change the auto person modal split to...

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

% Change in % Change in Auto Mode Auto Mode

SplitSplit

Auto Time +10%Auto Time +10%Auto Cost +10%Auto Cost +10%

Transit Time +10%Transit Time +10%

Veh/HH from 1 to 2+Veh/HH from 1 to 2+

Transit Fare +10%Transit Fare +10%

HOME BASED WORK TRIP LOGIT MODEL


Mode Travel TimeNumber of Vehicles Province Constant

per HouseholdAuto Person

Transit

-4% -3% -2% -1% 0 % 1 % 2 % 3 %

% Change in % Change in Auto Mode Auto Mode

SplitSplit

SCHOOL TO HOME LOGIT MODEL

Out of Vehicle

-0.0926 -1.083 -0.527 2.85

Veh/household -- Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more than 1 vehicle per household. Province -- 0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents.

Out of vehicle -- 0 for auto mode, For transit, total travel time less in vehicle travel time. Changing the variables will in turn change the auto person modal split to...

Transit Out Of Vehicle Travel Time +10%

Vehicle/HH From 1 to 2+


Auto Mode Split = 1.052 - 0.26 * (1/Transit / Auto Time)

R^2= .91

Auto Person Trips 77,800

Transit Person trips 6,300

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6

Transit / Auto Time

Au

to M

od

e S

pli

t

Observed

Linear (Observed)

Auto Person Mode Choice Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time 0-15 Min)


Auto Mode Split = 1.071 - 0.249 * (1/Transit / Auto Time)

R^2= .71

Auto Person Trips 22,500

Transit Person trips 600

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

Transit / Auto Time

Au

to M

od

e S

pli

t

Observed

Linear (Observed)

Auto Person Mode Choice Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time +15 Min)

1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 23 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7


AUTO OCCUPANCY EQUATIONS

Trips being Modelled Equation R Squared

UTA*Work 1.25 - .00259 * distance 0.251Other 1.25 + .001186 * distance 0.127School 3.67 - .7481 * ln(distance) 0.84

OUTSIDE UTA**Work 1.071 + .00275 * distance 0.55Other 1.296 - .00187 * distance 0.18School 3 estimated

* UTA* UTA Trips with origin and destination in urban transit areaTrips with origin and destination in urban transit area

** Outside UTA** Outside UTA Trips with origin and/or destination outside Trips with origin and/or destination outside the urban transit areathe urban transit area


MODAL SPLIT RESULTS(INCLUDES EXTERNAL TRIPS)

Trip Total PersonsPurpose Trips

Work - OD Survey 78,800Model 81,300

School - OD Survey 7,390Model 7,430

Other - OD Survey 124,900Model 125,900

Total - OD Survey 223,900Model 227,500

Auto PersonTrips

59,60061,700

3,7303,580

116,900118,100

193,000196,200

Auto VehicleTrips

49,20049,200

1,7101,640

93,40089,300

155,200150,900

Transit Trips

19,20019,600

3,6703,850

7,9607,860

30,90031,300


1995 PEAK HOUR ASSIGNMENT(Outbound - Model Vs. Observed Counts)

Rideau River

CPR

Ottawa Central

Rideau Canal

Fallowfield

Eagleson

Green Creek

CNR West/ Acres

CNR East

Western Parkway

Leitrim/ Ramsayville

0 600040002000 8000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

• Model Overestimation• Model Underestimation

+6%

0%

+17%+1%

-1%

-7%

+15%

-4%

-17%-9%

-12%


1995 PEAK HOUR ASSIGNMENT(Outbound - Model Vs. Observed Counts)

Rideau River

CPR

Ottawa Central

Rideau Canal

Fallowfield

Eagleson

Green Creek

CNR West/ Acres

CNR East

Western Parkway

Leitrim/ Ramsayville

+31%

+13%-3%

-23%

-4%

+31%

-11%

-2%

+17%

+5%

-40%

• Transit •Auto Vehicle

0 600040002000 8000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

• Model Overestimation• Model Underestimation

+6%

0%

+17%+1%

-1%

-7%

+15%

-4%

-17%-9%

-12%


Change in Demographics 1995 to 2021

Population (5 yrs and over)

Dwelling Units

Total Employment

Gross Leasable Area (in 100 ft2)

+44%+44%

+50%+50%

+55%+55%

+40%+40%

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000


1995 and 2021 Travel DemandTotal Auto Person Trips

0 40,00020,000 60,000 180,00080,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Work

Other

+30%

+55%


1995 and 2021 Travel DemandTotal Auto Person Trips and Transit Trips

0 40,00020,000 60,000 180,00080,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

+120%

+55% • TransitTransit •Auto Persons

Work

Other

+30%

+55%

Don Stephens P. Eng.Don Stephens P. Eng.Manager, Data ModelingManager, Data Modeling and Forecasting and Forecasting Region of Ottawa Carleton Region of Ottawa Carleton

Mark Campbell P.Eng.Mark Campbell P.Eng.Senior Transportation Planner Senior Transportation Planner

Maxim Morrison HershfieldMaxim Morrison Hershfield

QUESTIONS ?




QUESTIONS ?

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