technical analysis - amazon s3 · the premises of technical analysis 11/29/2019 introduction to...
TRANSCRIPT
Technical Analysis
Introduction to technical analysis (TA)
Agenda
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01
How does ICIS provide the best TA possible?02
Cycle analysis for European energy markets03
Deriving indicators from the ICIS buy/sell ratio04
Market outlook05
2Technical Analysis
Introduction To Technical Analysis (TA)
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The premises of technical analysis
411/29/2019 Introduction To ICIS Technical Analysis
The market discounts everything
• Everything that is known and all emotions is reflected in the price.
Prices move in trends (not
random)
• TA helps to identify trends that can be invested in. Once a trend is established it remains until it does not.
History repeats itself
• Patterns reflect human psychology and we humans rarely change.
ConductingEffectiveTechnical Analysis
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Introducing the ICIS TA report
Sent via email at 7a.m. London time to ESGM and EDEM customers
The report covers:
• TTF front month, front season
• NBP front month, front season
• German power front quarter, front year (baseload)
• Brent crude front month
• EUA front December
• Rotterdam Coal front year
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Anatomy of the ICIS TA report
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Outlook
• What is the short- and medium-term outlook?
Fundamental news brief
• What major news story could move the market in the short, medium- and long-term?
Technical Analysis
Anatomy of the ICIS TA report
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ICIS buy/sell ratio
• Absolute ratio of executed aggressor buys and sells
• Sentiment indicator
Technical Analysis
Anatomy of the ICIS TA report
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Daily candlestick chart
• Five months of data
• Two support and two resistance levels (red)
• Trendlines
• Candlestick formations
• Volume
• Indicator
Introduction To ICIS Technical Analysis
Text slide, one column
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Support and resistance
• Selection of the most important support and resistance levels from the last close
• Reference points include peaks and lows, gaps, trendlines, Fibonacci levels, EMAs and many more
Technical Analysis
Cycle Analysis
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Cycle analysis
• A price high or low that repeats in regular intervals
• Once identified, it helps anticipating future price extremes
• Cycles are measured from low to low
• As with all TA methods, cycles have to be used in conjunction with other tools
• Caution: cycles can reverse or disappear for certain periods
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Cycle analysis
Standard cycle count
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Cycle analysis
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Standard cycle count results
Cycle length (days)Total examinable
Cycles
Number of hits
(+/- 5%)Hit rate %
46 28 19 68%
23 58 31 54%
12 115 15 13%
Technical Analysis
ICIS buy/sell ratio
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Anatomy of the ICIS TA report
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ICIS buy/sell ratio
• Absolute ratio of executed aggressor buys and sells
• Sentiment indicator
Technical Analysis
ICIS buy/sell ratio indicator
Percentage plotted
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ICIS buy/sell ratio indicator
Results: Balanced B/S ratio on narrow range reflects idle market
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ICIS buy/sell ratio indicator
Results: Zero line crossovers reflect changes in market balance (trend changes impending)
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ICIS buy/sell ratio indicator
Results: Width between buy and sell percentages shows maturity of trend
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Energy Market
Outlook
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Thank you
