t&e workshop long-term strategies to decarbonise aviation …€¦ · · 2018-01-30long-term...

German Environment Agency

Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives

T&E workshop long-term strategies to decarbonise aviation

Dr. Harry Lehmann

General Director of Division “Environmental Planning and Sustainability Strategies”

The Paris Agreement

2

Power-to-Liquids – Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel

•  Goal: well below 2 °C / limit 1.5 °C

•  Means decarbonization of all major industries !!!

•  developed countries such as Germany: GHG reduction of up to 95 % by 2050.

source: www.un.org

T&E Workshop “Decarbonization of Aviation” 23rd January 2018

Climate Action Plan 2050

2050 Energiewende targets in 2017

2050 Energiewende targets in 2017

Climate Action Plan 2050

Million t CO2 Equivalent

all sectors have to contribute

1 ton CO2 per cap

Electricity

Industry

Waste

Transport Heating Cooling

Land Use

Agriculture

UBA-Study: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050

Source: UBA 2014

PT X

Electricity

Industry

Waste


Land Use

Agriculture

UBA-Study: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050

Source: UBA 2014

PT X

Electricity

Industry

Waste


Land Use

Agriculture

cross sectoral coupling needed

The Climate Challenge of Aviation (CO2 only)

8

Paris Pathway (CO2 only)

ICAO Pathway (CO2 only)

2010 2020 2030 2040

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Interna<

onal Avia<

on Net CO2 E

mission

s (M

T)

AircraD Technology

Opera<onal Improvements

Sustainable Alterna<ve Fuels and Market-‐Based Measures

•  ICAO: Carbon Neutral Growth from 2020 = no reduction •  Alarming gap between ICAO and Paris Agreement

source: ICAO with own modification



Climate Impact of Aviation

9

CO2

O3

CH4 NOx

total

Soot

Contrails

Cirrus

Sulphate

total

Incl. Cirrus

Water vapour

sour

ce: Lee et a

l. 2009 with

own mod

ifica<o

n



The Climate Challenge of Aviation (CO2 + Non-CO2)

10

Paris-‐Pathway

ICAO-‐Pathway

2010 2020 2030 2040

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Interna<

onal Avia<

on Net CO2 E

mission

s (M

T)

•  Non-CO2 impact at least as large as CO2 impact of aviation •  carbon neutral growth ≠ climate neutral growth

source: ICAO with own modification



Why PtL Fuels?

11

Top priorities: 1.  avoid flights 2.  shift to other modes of transport 3.  use efficiency potentials of aviation

Not sufficient for Paris goals. Aviation needs in addition sustainable

alternative fuels

Biofuels: Not sustainable if produced on a large scale (cultivated biomass)

PtL Fuels: Could supply aviation but requires research, investments and cost degression

Strategic decision



What are „Power-to-Liquids“?

source: LBST/BHL, 2016

12

Electricity generation

Hydrogen production CO2 supply Synthesis &

conditioning PtL jet fuel

Water CO2

PtL H2 e-



GHG Emissions

13

87.5 103.4 101.0

194.8

[DATENREIHENNAME]

Crude Oil Oil Sand Natural Gas to Liquid Coal to Liquid Power to Liquid

GHG Emissions [gCO2eq/MJ]

Source: adapted from LBST/BHL, 2016



Lifecycle GHG Emissions

Input Presentation: Power-to-Liquids (PtL)

UNFCCC - COP23 Side Event “Decarbonisation of Aviation” 08 Nov 2017 - German Pavilion 3

0

50

100

150

200

250

Crude Oil Oil Sand Natural Gas-to-Liquid

Coal-to-Liquid Power-to-Liquids

GH

G e

mis

sion

s in

gC

O2e

q/MJ

Source: adapted from LBST/BHL, 2016

87,5 103,4 101

194,8

11-28

Land Use

15

Source: LBST/BHL, 2016



Water Demand

16

Source: LBST/BHL, 2016



17


Kerosene 2010

Kerosene 2050

BTL PTL LH2

Upper Estimate

Lower Estimate

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00

€ 201

0/MJ

Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) - Competitive Costs


Source: UBA Texte 30/2015

Technology Readiness Level (TRL)

18

•  PtL produced from concentrated CO2 sources: TRL 8 – 9

•  PtL full system integration recently progressing due to demonstration plants in Iceland, Finland, Germany and soon in Norway

•  Improved processes for CO2 extraction from air and high-temperature electrolysis at demonstration/development level



Recent Outcomes


States are encouraged to foster development of innovative technological pathways to produce SAF from sources such as renewable electricity, while additional efforts should be made to scale up the market of these fuels.

Economies and Scalability

20

Source: adapted from LBST/BHL 2016

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Crude Oil Concentrated CO2 source Direct air capture of CO2

Jet fuel costs projected for future PtL plants in 2050 [€/t]

today

2050



LH2 for Aviation

21

•  Pro: Lower costs and higher conversion efficiency than PtL

•  Con: Requires at least 4 times compared to tank volume of kerosene

•  Crucial Disadvantage: incompatible to existing aircraft and infrastructure

•  Due to long development times and product life cycles of new aircraft: In 2050 LH2 powered aircraft could be only a niche (best case).


[DATENREIHENNAME]

[DATENREIHENNAME]

Hydrogen Liquid

0

10

20

30

40

0 50 100 150

Volu

met

ric E

nerg

y D

ensi

ty [M

J/l]

Gravimeric Energy Density [MJ/kg]

Source: CRYOPLANE Project Airbus


Strategic Thoughts

22

•  Aviation needs sustainable strategy

•  Avoid new acceptance problems

•  Early course setting for investments

•  Sustainable large-scale biofuels unrealistic

•  Focus on PtL

•  Intensify R&D

•  PtL useful for other modes, too (e.g. ships)



How to promote PtL?

23

•  Information of all stakeholders about the potentials of PtL

•  Pilot and demo facilities

•  Research funding (specific technologies e.g. high-temperature electrolysis)

•  Potential market entry facilitation

•  Monetary incentives •  CORSIA •  ETS •  Kerosene tax for fossil fuels

•  Regulatory measures



UBA Studies

24



1/30/18 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 25

A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany is possible !

0

150

300

450

600

750

0

50

100

150

200

250

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PtG

/PtL

(met

han

and

fuel

s) in

TW

h

inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty in

GW

GreenEe-Scenario - Import

/ Workshop Decarbonisation

A resource efficient pathway towards a greenhouse gas neutral Germany

generated PtG/L

1/30/18 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungs<tel in 12 Punkt 27

Thank You

Dr. Harry Lehmann

harry.lehmann @ uba.de

Studies: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/power-to-liquids-potentials-perspectives-for-the

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/377/publikationen/uba_position_powertoliquid_engl.pdf

Economies and Scalability

28



t&e workshop long-term strategies to decarbonise aviation …€¦ · · 2018-01-30long-term...

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