tcci barometer · 2009. 11. 13. · 1.prefecture of thessaloniki: tcci barometer 2.greece : feir...

TCCI Barometer

September 2009

“Establishing a reliable tool for monitoring the

financial, business and social activity in the

Prefecture of Thessaloniki”

•Conduct every six months (March – September, 2nd fortnight)

•Monitoring five (5) populations of interest:

- Residents – Consumers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Consumer Survey)

- Retail Trade companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Retail Trade Survey)

- Industries – Manufacturers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Industry Survey)

- Services companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Services Survey)

- Construction companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Construction Survey)

• Conduct via telephone interviews (CATI system)

• Total sample of 1.500 respondents (700 consumers & 800 companies)

• Questionnaires along the lines of instructions for investigating

economic climate (DG – ECFIN)

Consumer Survey

Industry Survey

Services Survey

Retail Trade Survey4

3

2

1

Construction Survey5

Consumer Survey1

Consumer Confidence Indicator

Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -32

Greece : -39

European Union : -17

Consumer Survey1

Source:

1.Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer

2.Greece : FEIR

3.European Union : DG ECFIN

Consumer Confidence Indicator (March 2009)


Greece : -56


Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -35

GR: -40

EU: -18


GR: -50

EU: -17

March 2009

1%2%

41%

38%

18%

0%

How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?

It has…

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

don't know

1%3%

41%

34%

21%

How has the financial situation of your household changed

over the last 12 months? It has…

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive– Negative)THE: -23

GR: -39

EU: -10


GR: -22

EU: -3

March 2009

1%

12%

32%

36%

12%

7%

How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It

will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

2%

15%

39%25%

10%

9%

How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It

will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -71

EU: -67


GR: -71

EU: -58

March 2009

0%1%

12%

46%

39%

2%

How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12

months? It has…

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

don't know

0%

3%

12%

43%

40%

2%

How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12 months?

It has…

got a lot better

got a little better

stayed the same

got a little worse

got a lot worse

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -64

EU: -40


GR: -38

EU: -11

March 2009

1%

14%

27%

26%

21%

11%

How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?

It will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

1%

14%

20%

31%

28%

6%

How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?

It will…

get a lot better

get a little better

stay the same

get a little worse

get a lot worse

don't know

Consumer Survey1

Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +28

GR: +55

EU: +26


GR: +45

EU: -2

March 2009

6%

19%

20%28%

25%

2%

How do you think that consumer prices have developed over the last 12 months? They have…

fallen

stayed about the same

risen slightly

risen moderately

risen a lot

don't know

7%

16%

15%

32%

27%

3%

How do you think that consumer prices have developed over the last 12 months? They

have…

fallen

stayed about the same

risen slightly

risen moderately

risen a lot

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: +31

EU: +2


GR: +7

EU: -9

March 2009

5%

25%

16%30%

13%

11%

By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in the next

12 months? They will...

fall

stay about the same

increase at a slower rate

increse at the same rate

increase more rapidly

12%

21%

16%24%

19%

8%

By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in

the next 12 months? They will...

fall

stay about the same

increase at a slower rateincrese at the same rateincrease more rapidly

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -71

EU: -66


GR: -47

EU: -46

March 2009

1%

4%

16%

36%

38%

5%

How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the next 12 months?

The number will…

fall sharply

fall slightly

remain the same

increase slightly

increase sharply

don't know

1%3%

6%

27%

61%

2%

How do you expect the number of people unemployed in this country to change over the next 12 months? The

number will…

fall sharply

fall slightly

remain the same

increase slightly

increase sharply

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -48

EU: -24


GR: -44

EU: -15

March 2009

19%

21%

57%

3%

In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to

make major purchases such as furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.?

yes,it is the right moment now

it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment

no, it is not the right moment now

don't know

1%

22%

17%60%

In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to

make major purchases such as furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.?

don't know

yes,it is the right moment now

it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment

no, it is not the right moment now

Consumer Survey1


GR: -37

EU: -25


GR: -33

EU: -24

March 2009

8%

11%

24%

24%

32%

1%

Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases

(futniture, electrical/electronic devices,etc.) over the next 12 months? I will spend…

much more

a little more

about the same

a little less

much less

don't know

6%6%

16%

22%

49%

1%

Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases

(futniture, electrical/electronic devices,etc.) over the next 12 months? I will spend…

much more

a little more

about the same

a little less

much less

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -36

EU: +13


GR: -46

EU: +14

March 2009

8%

14%

27%

47%

4%

In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?

a very good moment to save

a fairly good moment to save

not a good moment to save

a very bad moment to save

don't know

5%

21%

27%

44%

3%

In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?

a very good moment to save

a fairly good moment to save

not a good moment to save

a very bad moment to save

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -49

EU: -11


GR: -50

EU: -8

March 2009

7%

17%

23%

51%

2%

Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

8%

13%

22%56%

1%

Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR: -1

EU: +12


GR: +2

EU: +13

March 2009

3%

20%

49%

14%

13%

1%

Which of these statements best descrides the current financial situation of your household?

we are saving a lot

we are saving a little

we are just managing to make ends meet on our incomewe are having to draw on our savings

we are running into debt

don't know

2%

18%

47%

16%

16%

1%

Which of these statements best descrides the current financial situation of your household?

we are saving a lot

we are saving a little

we are just managing to make ends meet on our incomewe are having to draw on our savings

we are running into debt

don't know

Consumer Survey1


GR*: -78

EU*: -74

*Data of January ‘09


GR*: -76

EU*: -74

*Data of July ‘09

March 2009

5%7%

7%

81%

0%

How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

4%5%

4%

87%

How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

Consumer Survey1


GR*: -87

EU*: -90



GR*: -80

EU*: -88

*Data of July ‘09

March 2009

3%6%2%

88%

1%

Are you planing to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of your family,

as a holiday home, to let etc.)?

yes, definitely

possibly

probably not

no

don't know

2%6%2%

90%

Are you planing to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of your family,

as a holiday home, to let etc.)?

yes, definitely

possibly

probably not

no

Consumer Survey1



GR*: -68

EU*: -60

*Data of July ‘09


GR*: -66

EU*: -58

March 2009

7%

11%

14%

68%

0%

How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations over the next

12 months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

don't know

5%9%

10%

76%

How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations over the next 12

months?

very likely

fairly likely

not likely

not at all likely

Industry Survey2

Industry Survey2

Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector) – March 2009


Greece : -37

European Union : -39Source:


2.Greece : FEIR

3.European Union : DG ECFIN

Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector)


Greece : -24


Industry Survey2

decreased60%

remained unchanged

31%

increased8%

don’t know1%

How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:


GR: -35

EU: -46

decreased57%

remained unchanged

26%

increased14%

don’t know3%

How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:


GR: -20

EU: -20

March 2009

Industry Survey2

not sufficient59%

sufficient37%

more than sufficient

3%

don’t know1%

Do you consider your current overall order books to be:


GR: -56

EU: -61

not sufficient56%

sufficient41%


2%

don’t know1%



GR: -54

EU: -55

March 2009

Industry Survey2

not sufficient42%

don’t know33%

sufficient23%


2%

Do you consider your current export order books to be:


GR: -53

EU: -60


3%

sufficient27%

not sufficient39%

don’t know31%

Do you consider your current export order books to be:


GR: -45

EU: -55

March 2009

Industry Survey2

adequate58%

too small18%

too large17%

don’t know7%

Do you consider your current stock of finished products o be:


GR: +34

EU: +22

adequate65%

too large16%

too small12%

don’t know7%

Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be:


GR: +20

EU: +11

March 2009

Industry Survey2

decrease43%

remain unchanged

31%

increase18%

don’t know8%

How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…


GR: -20

EU: -35

remain unchanged

43%

increase28%

decrease20%

don’t know9%

How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…


GR: +01

EU: -06

March 2009

Industry Survey2

remain unchanged

57%decrease29%

increase8%

don’t know6%

How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…


GR: -18

EU: -13

remain unchanged

65%

decrease19%

increase10%

don’t know6%

How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…


GR: -07

EU: -08

March 2009

Industry Survey2

remain unchanged

66%

decrease25%

don’t know5%

increase4%

How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…


GR: -36

EU: -41

remain unchanged

72%

decrease18%

increase8%

don’t know2%



GR: -22

EU: -30

March 2009

Industry Survey2

March 2009

1%

3%

4%

8%

8%

29%

48%

shortage of labour force

shortage of material and/or equipment

don't know

none

other factors

financial constraints

insufficient demand

What main factors are currently limiting your production?

2%

3%

3%

3%

5%

32%

53%

don't know

other factors



none


insufficient demand

What main factors are currently limiting your production?

Industry Survey2

decreased60%

remained unchanged

30%

increased7%

don’t know3%

How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…


GR: -35

EU: -46

decreased56%remained

unchanged29%

increased14%

don’t know1%

How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…


GR: -30

EU: -22

March 2009

Industry Survey2

sufficient68%

not sufficient

14%


13%

don’t know5%

Considering your current books and the expected change in demand over the coming

months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production

capacity is…


GR:* +31

EU:* +36



GR:* +41

EU:* +51

*Data of July ‘09

sufficient67%

not sufficient15%


15%

don’t know3%

Considering your current order books and the expected change in demand over the coming

months, how do you assess your current production capacity? The current production

capacity is…

March 2009

Industry Survey2

don’t know37%

remain unchanged

29%

decrease23%

increase11%

How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…


GR: -09

EU: -28

increase17%

remain unchanged

30%

decrease17%

don’t know36%

How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…


GR: -09

EU: -10

March 2009

Industry Survey2

Source:


2.*Greece : FEIR – July 2009

3.*European Union : DG ECFIN – July 2009

Thessaloniki Greece* European Union*

**How many months of production are assured by

your current overall order books? 3,8 4,2 3,1

***At what capacity is your company currently

operating (as a percentage of full capacity)? 65,2% 68,3% 70,2%

** Percentage of those who answered: 83%

*** Percentage of those who answered: 93%

Services Survey3

Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector) – March 2009


Greece : -17


Services Survey3

Source:

1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer

2. Greece : FEIR

3. European Union : DG ECFIN

Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector)


Greece : -19


Services Survey

deteriorated56%

remained unchanged

34%

improved10%

don’t know0%

How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…

3


GR: -14

EU: -39

deteriorated51%

remained unchanged

32%

improved15%

don’t know2%

How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…


GR: -14

EU: -18

March 2009

Services Survey3

decreased55%

remained unchanged

32%

increased12%

don’t know1%

How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It has…


GR: -17

EU: -30

decreased56%

remained unchanged

30%

increased13%

don’t know1%

How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It

has…


GR: -17

EU: -12

March 2009

Services Survey3

decrease35%

remain unchanged

27%

increase26%

don’t know12%

How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 6

months? It will…


GR: -20

EU: -24

remain unchanged

39%

increase30%

decrease23%

don’t know8%

How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 6

months? It will…


GR: -25

EU: -4

March 2009

Services Survey3

remained unchanged

72%

decreased18%

increased9%

don’t know1%

How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…


GR: -12

EU: -21

remained unchanged

72%

decreased19%

increased7%

don’t know2%

How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…


GR: -21

EU: -18

March 2009

Services Survey3

remain unchanged

69%

decrease17%

increase7%

don’t know7%



GR: -12

EU: -20

remain unchanged

75%

decrease11%

increase7%

don’t know7%



GR: -23

EU: -13

March 2009

Services Survey3

remain unchanged

62%

decrease22%

increase9%

don’t know7%

How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…

remain unchanged

77%

decrease14%

increase5%

don’t know4%



GR: -7

EU: -9


GR: +1

EU: -7

March 2009

Services Survey3

March 2009

39%

35%

13%

8%

2%

2%

2%

insufficient demand


other factors

none

shortage of space and/or equipment

don't know


What main factors are currently limiting your business?

40%

35%

14%

7%

2%

2%

1%

insufficient demand


other factors

none


shortage of space and/or equipment

don't know

What main factors are currently limiting your business?

Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector) – March 2009


Greece : -38



Source:


2. Greece : FEIR


Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector)


Greece : -7



deteriorated71%

remained unchanged

21%

improved8%

How has (have) your business activity (sales) developed over the past 6 months? It has…(They

have…)


GR: -49

EU: -26

deteriorated68%

remained unchanged

23%

improved6%

don’t know3%

How has (have) your business activity (sales) developed over the past 6 months? It has…(They

have…)


GR: +5

EU: -13

March 2009


adequate (normal for the

season)60%

too large (above normal)

21%

too small (below normal)

16%

don’t know3%

Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:


GR: +33

EU: +13

adequate (normal for the season)

51%

too large (above normal)

14%

too small (below normal)

17%

don’t know18%

Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:


GR: +10

EU: +9

March 2009


decrease54%remain

unchanged30%

increase11%

don’t know5%

How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months? They

will…


GR: -48

EU: -30

decrease41%

remain unchanged

30%

increase14%

don’t know15%

How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months? They

will…


GR: -19

EU: -14

March 2009


deteriorate(decrease)

43%

remain unchanged

33%

improve(increase)

18%

don’t know6%

How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It (They) will…


GR: -32

EU: -27

deteriorate(decrease)

41%

remain unchanged

32%

improve (increase)

18%

don’t know9%

How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It (They) will…


GR: -15

EU: -11

March 2009


remain unchanged

80%

decrease16%

don’t know2%

increase2%



GR: +20

EU: -16

remain unchanged

78%

decrease15%

increase4%

don’t know3%



GR: +5

EU: -8

March 2009


remain unchanged

64%

decrease27%

increase7%

don’t know2%



GR: -19

EU: +4

remain unchanged

60%

decrease22%

increase11%

don’t know7%



GR: -16

EU: -2

March 2009

Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector) – March 2009


Greece : -45



Source:


2. Greece : FEIR


Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector)


Greece : -39


Construction Survey

decreased54%

remain unchanged

39%

increased7%

How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…

5


GR: -21

EU: -29

decreased53%

remain unchanged

41%

increased6%

How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…


GR: -23

EU: -26

March 2009


March 2009

1%

2%

3%

8%

30%

56%

none


other factors

weather conditions


insufficient demand

What main factors are currently limiting your building activity?

2%

1%

1%

3%

3%

4%

34%

52%

don't know



weather conditions

none

other factors


insufficient demand

What main factors are currently limiting your building activity?


sufficient31%

not sufficient61%


2%

don’t know6%



GR: -45

EU: -44

not sufficient63%

sufficient35%

don’t know1%


1%



GR: -46

EU: -49

March 2009


remain unchanged

61%

decrease26%

increase8%

don’t know5%



GR: -46

EU: -31

remain unchanged

68%

decrease21%

don’t know6%

increase5%



GR: -32

EU: -25

March 2009


remain unchanged

62%

decrease31%

increase5%

don’t know2%



GR: -45

EU: -31

remain unchanged

68%

decrease23%

increase8%

don’t know1%



GR: -33

EU: -22

March 2009

tcci barometer · 2009. 11. 13. · 1.prefecture of thessaloniki: tcci barometer 2.greece : feir...

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