tata motors fundamental analysis

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 AVG GROWT SALES 24077.74 25737.39 23937.57 31340.46 43251.52 100 6.89 -6.99 30.93 38.01 EBIDTA 3528 3654.4 2699.2 5190.6 4941 NET PROFIT 1913.39 2028.92 1016.55 2240.08 1811.82 100 6.03 -49.89 120.36 -19.11 EQUITY CAPITAL 578.07 578.43 311.61 859.05 1274.23 NO. OF SHARES 38.5374 38.5504 51.0408 57.0558 63.4614 (in crs) DPS 15 15 6 15 20 100 0 -60 150 33.33 EPS 49.65 52.63 19.48 39.26 28.55 100 6 -62.99 101.54 -27.28 MARKET PRICE OF SHARE 86.79 81.17 187.01 205.09 P/E ratio 15.5 12.3 9.6 20.5 48.9 CAPM- β=1.2 Rf=6% Rm= 18-20% so, Rm=19% Re= Rf + B( Rm-Rf) Re= 0.06 +1.2( 0.19-0.06) Re= 0.216 Ke=21.6% g=30.83% P5=257.146

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Page 1: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 AVG GROWTH RATE

SALES 24077.74 25737.39 23937.57 31340.46 43251.52 17.21%100 6.89 -6.99 30.93 38.01

EBIDTA 3528 3654.4 2699.2 5190.6 4941

NET PROFIT 1913.39 2028.92 1016.55 2240.08 1811.82 14.35%100 6.03 -49.89 120.36 -19.11

EQUITY CAPITAL 578.07 578.43 311.61 859.05 1274.23

NO. OF SHARES 38.5374 38.5504 51.0408 57.0558 63.4614 63.4614(in crs)

DPS 15 15 6 15 20 30.83%100 0 -60 150 33.33

EPS 49.65 52.63 19.48 39.26 28.55 4.32%100 6 -62.99 101.54 -27.28

MARKET PRICE OF SHARE 86.79 81.17 187.01 205.09

P/E ratio 15.5 12.3 9.6 20.5 48.9 21.36

CAPM-β=1.2Rf=6%Rm= 18-20%so, Rm=19%

Re= Rf + B( Rm-Rf)Re= 0.06 +1.2( 0.19-0.06)Re= 0.216 Ke=21.6%

g=30.83%

P5=257.146

Intrinsic value= D1+ D2+ D3+ D4 + D5 +P5Intrinsic value= 993.81

Page 2: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

50695.11 59419.73 69645.87 81631.93 95680.78

2071.82 2369.12 2709.09 3097.85 3542.39

63.4614 63.4614 63.4614 63.4614 63.4614

D1 D2 D3 D4 D526.166 34.232 44.787 58.595 76.66

29.78 31.07 32.41 33.81 3527.00%

636.1 663.66 692.28 722.18 753.37

21.36 21.36 21.36 21.36 21.36

Page 3: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

Balance sheet(in Rs crore)Mar ' 11 Mar ' 10 Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07

Sources of funds

Owner's fund

634.65 570.6 514.05 385.54 385.41

3.06 - - - -

- - - - -

19,351.40 14,208.55 11,855.15 7,428.45 6,458.39

Loan funds

7,766.05 7,742.60 5,251.65 2,461.99 2,022.04

8,132.70 8,883.31 7,913.91 3,818.53 1,987.10

Total 35,887.86 31,405.06 25,534.76 14,094.51 10,852.94

Uses of funds

Fixed assets

Gross block 21,883.32 18,416.81 13,905.17 10,830.83 8,775.80

24.19 24.63 25.07 25.51 25.95

8,466.25 7,212.92 6,259.90 5,443.52 4,894.54

Net block 13,392.88 11,179.26 7,620.20 5,361.80 3,855.31

4,058.56 5,232.15 6,954.04 5,064.96 2,513.32

Investments 22,624.21 22,336.90 12,968.13 4,910.27 2,477.00

Net current assets

14,775.61 12,329.48 10,836.58 10,781.23 10,318.42

18,963.40 19,672.73 12,846.21 12,029.80 8,321.20

-4,187.79 -7,343.25 -2,009.63 -1,248.57 1,997.22

Equity share capital

Share application money

Preference share capital

Reserves & surplus

Secured loans

Unsecured loans

Less : revaluation reserve

Less : accumulated depreciation

Capital work-in-progress

Current assets, loans & advances

Less : current liabilities & provisions

Total net current assets

Page 4: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

- - 2.02 6.05 10.09

Total 35,887.86 31,405.06 25,534.76 14,094.51 10,852.94

Notes:

22,275.15 21,991.93 12,358.84 4,145.82 2,117.86

379.16 345.53 558.32 2,530.55 1,323.08

4,798.83 3,708.33 5,433.07 5,590.83 5,196.07

6346.14 5705.58 5140.08 3855.04 3853.74

Miscellaneous expenses not written

Book value of unquoted investments

Market value of quoted investments

Contingent liabilities

Number of equity sharesoutstanding (Lacs)

Page 5: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

Profit loss account(in rs crore)Mar ' 11 Mar ' 10 Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07

Income

47,957.24 35,373.29 25,660.67 28,767.91 26,664.25

34,692.83 24,759.49 19,039.41 20,931.81 19,529.88

2,224.74 1,652.22 1,171.59 1,230.14 1,200.36

2,294.02 1,836.13 1,551.39 1,544.57 1,367.83

2,289.11 1,583.24 1,224.15 1,179.48 1,068.56

2,568.50 2,249.92 1,867.05 1,982.79 1,488.16

-817.68 -740.54 -916.02 -1,131.40 -577.05

43,251.52 31,340.46 23,937.57 25,737.39 24,077.74

4,705.72 4,032.83 1,723.10 3,030.52 2,586.51

420.69 402.27 841.54 359.42 887.23

5,126.41 4,435.10 2,564.64 3,389.94 3,473.74

1,383.79 1,246.25 704.92 471.56 455.75

1,360.77 1,033.87 874.54 652.31 586.29

106.17 144.03 51.17 64.35 85.02

2,275.68 2,010.95 934.01 2,201.72 2,346.68

384.7 589.46 12.5 547.55 660.37

1,890.98 1,421.49 921.51 1,654.17 1,686.31

-79.16 818.59 79.75 374.75 227.15

- - 15.29 - -0.07

1,811.82 2,240.08 1,016.55 2,028.92 1,913.39

3,745.95 3,926.07 2,399.62 3,042.75 2,690.15

Operating income

Expenses

Material consumed

Manufacturing expenses 

Personnel expenses

Selling expenses

Adminstrative expenses

Expenses capitalised

Cost of sales

Operating profit

Other recurring income

Adjusted PBDIT

Financial expenses

Depreciation 

Other write offs

Adjusted PBT

Tax charges 

Adjusted PAT

Non recurring items

Other non cash adjustments

Reported net profit

Earnigs before appropriation

Page 6: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

1,274.23 859.05 311.61 578.43 578.07

- - - - -

192.8 132.89 34.09 81.25 98.25

2,278.92 2,934.13 2,053.92 2,383.07 2,013.83

Equity dividend

Preference dividend

Dividend tax

Retained earnings

Page 7: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

Cash flowMar ' 11 Mar ' 10 Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07

1,811.82 2,240.08 1,001.26 2,028.92 1,913.46

1,505.56 6,586.03 1,295.02 6,174.50 2,210.13

-2,521.88 -11,848.29 -10,644.67 -5,721.86 -2,805.10

1,648.42 5,348.49 8,104.70 1,132.46 303.58

632.1 86.23 -1,244.95 1,585.10 -291.39

720.04 630.04 2,386.77 806.21 1,118.15

1,352.14 716.27 1,141.82 2,391.31 826.76

Profit before tax

Net cashflow-operating activity

Net cash used in investing activity

Netcash used in fin. activity

Net inc/dec in cash and equivlnt

Cash and equivalnt begin of year

Cash and equivalnt end of year

Page 8: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

RatiosMar ' 11 Mar ' 10 Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07

29.8 24.91 17.93 42.91 43.76

52.91 45.56 35.94 61.5 61.18

28.55 39.26 19.48 52.63 49.65

51.67 59.91 37.49 71.22 67.07

20 15 6 15 15

74.15 70.68 33.52 78.61 67.12

314.93 259.03 240.6 202.54 177.33

315.31 259.46 241.09 203.2 178

755.69 619.98 499.23 746.24 691.91

287.53 229.67 217.77 182.38 157.16

9.81 11.4 6.71 10.53 9.7

6.97 8.47 3.3 8.26 7.5

3.74 6.26 3.77 6.96 6.94

6.94 7.26 6.97 8.13 8.55

Per share ratios

Adjusted EPS (Rs)

Adjusted cash EPS (Rs)

Reported EPS (Rs)

Reported cash EPS (Rs)

Dividend per share

Operating profit per share (Rs)

Book value (excl rev res) per share (Rs)

Book value (incl rev res) per share (Rs.)

Net operating income per share (Rs)

Free reserves per share (Rs)

Profitability ratios

Operating margin (%)

Gross profit margin (%)

Net profit margin (%)

Adjusted cash margin (%)

Page 9: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

9.46 9.61 7.45 21.18 24.67

9.06 15.15 8.09 25.98 28

12.01 12.26 8.89 22.85 31.18

0.52 0.79 0.49 0.49 0.31

0.79 1.12 1.06 0.8 0.58

55.69 47.05 48.44 55.43 63.05

2.22 1.95 1.88 2.69 3.08

0.77 0.62 0.84 0.89 1.24

0.52 0.44 0.43 0.64 0.85

Quick ratio 0.53 0.43 0.58 0.66 0.91

13.86 13.5 13.47 14.44 13.26

80.96 44.28 34.52 32.51 35.34

44.74 29.02 17.94 24.02 26.16

22.42 30.22 62.49 60.13 59.9

56.32 61.84 81.29 72.18 71.32

Adjusted return on net worth (%)

Reported return on net worth (%)

Return on long term funds (%)

Leverage ratios

Long term debt / Equity

Total debt/equity

Owners fund as % of total source

Fixed assets turnover ratio

Liquidity ratios

Current ratio

Current ratio (inc. st loans)

Inventory turnover ratio

Payout ratios

Dividend payout ratio (net profit)

Dividend payout ratio (cash profit)

Earning retention ratio

Cash earnings retention ratio

Page 10: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

4.73 6.4 7.13 2.65 1.7

3.7 3.56 3.64 7.19 7.62

3.37 3.74 3.73 6.82 6.67

73.07 71.7 73.26 72.62 74.55

4.77 4.47 4.77 4.09 4

7 8.61 9.49 9.88 10.18

5.9 5.94 5.82 4.6 3.88

0.72 0.75 0.71 0.58 0.45

17.53 19.5 21.64 28.86 28.87

Dividend

Year Month

2011 May 200

2010 May 150

2009 May 60

2008 May 150

2007 May 150

2006 May 130

Coverage ratios

Adjusted cash flow time total debt

Financial charges coverage ratio

Fin. charges cov.ratio (post tax)

Component ratios

Material cost component (% earnings)

Selling cost Component

Exports as percent of total sales

Import comp. in raw mat. consumed

Long term assets / total Assets

Bonus component in equity capital (%)

Dividend (%)

Page 11: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

Years Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07

0.9 1.1 1 0.7 0.6

0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4

0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1

Fixed Assets 2.6 2.3 2.3 3.4 3.8

Inventory 15 14.6 12.1 13.4 14

Debtors 20.6 21 24.1 34.4 42.2

2.6 2.6 1.7 6.2 8

PBIDTM (%) 9.6 11.2 8 10.1 11.2

PBITM (%) 7 8.4 4.8 8.1 9.3

PBDTM (%) 6.9 7.9 5.1 8.8 10

CPM (%) 6.2 6.8 5 7.3 7.9

APATM (%) 3.5 4.1 1.9 5.3 6.1

ROCE (%) 10.6 11.2 6.9 21.3 30.5

RONW (%) 10.4 11.3 5.3 23.9 31

PE 48.9 20.5 9.6 12.3 15.5EBIDTA 4,941.00 5,109.60 2,699.20 3,654.40 3,528.00DivYield 1.6 2 3.4 2.4 2.1PBV 4 2.9 0.8 3.1 4.1EPS 25.5 36.9 18.8 50.5 47.1

Key Ratios

Debt-Equity Ratio

Long Term Debt-Equity Ratio

Current Ratio

Interest Cover Ratio

Page 12: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

Capital structure

From Year To Year

2010 2011 900 634.61 634613990 10 634.61

2009 2010 900 570.56 570557544 10 570.56

2008 2009 900 514.01 514008314 10 514.01

2007 2008 450 385.5 385503954 10 385.5

2006 2007 450 385.37 385373885 10 385.37

Class Of Share

Authorized Capital

Issued Capital

Paid Up Shares

(Nos)

Paid Up Face

ValuePaid Up Capital

Equity Share

Equity Share

Equity Share

Equity Share

Equity Share

Page 13: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

TATA MOTORS SENSEXDate Open High Low Close Volume Open Close

31-Oct-11 205.15 205.4 197.8 198.45 2,487,846 17806.21 17705.0128-Oct-11 198 207.9 197.05 206.2 2,987,412 17671.86 17804.826-Oct-11 192.1 192.1 192.1 192.1 0 17336.34 17288.8325-Oct-11 187.5 193.45 184.7 191.75 2,804,506 17012.79 17254.8624-Oct-11 183.8 187.2 183 185.85 2,263,022 17011.06 16939.2821-Oct-11 184.5 185.5 177.1 177.95 1,969,998 16975.79 16785.6420-Oct-11 182.5 184.45 180.85 183.1 1,599,487 16911.85 16936.8919-Oct-11 184 188.25 184 186.65 1,968,530 16883.36 17085.3418-Oct-11 184 184.4 178.1 181.15 2,381,870 16817.38 16748.2917-Oct-11 182.8 191.15 182.7 188 4,467,007 17176.05 17025.0914-Oct-11 174.1 181.25 173.5 179.9 2,586,265 16836.83 17082.6913-Oct-11 183.7 186.2 174.7 175.75 3,462,714 17048 16883.9212-Oct-11 176 188.4 170.8 181.35 3,677,231 16660.43 16958.3911-Oct-11 172.35 177.8 171.5 176.75 3,217,373 16668.15 16536.4710-Oct-11 159.8 172 159 170.55 3,239,575 16270.07 16557.237-Oct-11 153.35 159.9 153.05 158.8 2,667,736 16222.49 16232.545-Oct-11 147.4 147.4 147.4 147.4 0 15967.72 15792.414-Oct-11 152.5 152.7 145.4 147.25 2,681,971 16081.77 15864.863-Oct-11 154.3 157.5 152.4 153.95 1,531,568 16255.97 16151.4530-Sep-11 160 162.8 155.35 156.1 2,514,427 16599.74 16453.7629-Sep-11 153 162.8 151.1 160.95 3,279,915 16387.91 16698.0728-Sep-11 157.25 159.7 153.45 155.95 2,464,626 16663.26 16446.0227-Sep-11 151.25 157 150.75 155.7 2,117,994 16289.32 16524.0326-Sep-11 147.25 148.45 142.5 147 1,680,952 16209.19 16051.123-Sep-11 150.85 151.75 146 147.4 3,130,648 16222.37 16162.0622-Sep-11 161 161.6 154 154.85 2,158,441 16827.85 16361.1521-Sep-11 164.95 166.8 163.5 164.7 1,333,727 17128.83 17065.1520-Sep-11 161.9 167 161.45 166.1 2,000,112 16768.63 17099.2819-Sep-11 160 164.7 157.7 161.35 2,342,545 16865.93 16745.3516-Sep-11 153.4 163 153.25 161.7 4,294,489 17047.73 16933.8315-Sep-11 142.5 152.35 141.5 151.1 2,386,302 16837.76 16876.5414-Sep-11 141 143.55 140 142.5 1,801,816 16522.71 16709.613-Sep-11 147.5 148.4 137.65 139.65 2,971,046 16618.17 16467.4412-Sep-11 146 149.2 143.8 146.4 2,221,756 16668.25 16501.749-Sep-11 791 791.15 760.7 763.6 325,980 17189.75 16866.978-Sep-11 774 792.4 769 788.95 505,988 17118.08 17165.547-Sep-11 770.1 780.95 754.3 769.05 591,525 16922.31 170656-Sep-11 747.1 773.5 747.1 765.85 451,346 16663.73 16862.815-Sep-11 748.7 759.8 742 753.85 627,560 16678.34 16713.332-Sep-11 751 762.95 742 755.1 393,181 16963.67 16821.4630-Aug-11 741.7 741.7 741.7 741.7 0 16585.1 16676.75

Page 14: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

29-Aug-11 716 735.9 710.05 731.1 426,054 16080.74 16416.3326-Aug-11 717 732 695 699.2 593,149 16155.55 15848.8325-Aug-11 710.1 721.5 705 714.05 462,291 16338.14 16146.3324-Aug-11 729.8 737.5 696 700.7 665,780 16490.78 16284.9823-Aug-11 737 747 715 729.15 721,491 16446.85 16498.4722-Aug-11 717.9 741.6 700 736.7 586,678 16155.99 16341.719-Aug-11 740.1 740.1 703.25 713.4 612,716 16237.78 16141.6718-Aug-11 788.8 788.8 750.1 753.15 492,895 16910.27 16469.7917-Aug-11 801.75 801.75 771.75 779.3 360,357 16782.24 16840.816-Aug-11 813.7 819.5 796.2 801.75 327,364 17015.99 16730.9412-Aug-11 801.1 801.1 801.1 801.1 0 17246.88 16839.6311-Aug-11 833 861.4 818.6 845.6 737,142 17056.61 17059.410-Aug-11 820.15 848.8 820.15 843.9 525,242 17244.71 17130.51

Page 15: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

RETURN ON SENSEX RETURN ON STOCK X Y XY X*X Y*Y - - - -0.005636 0.039053 0.0002201 3.17674E-05 0.001525

-0.028979 -0.06838 0.0019816 0.0008397977 0.004676-0.001965 -0.001822 3.5799E-06 3.860645E-06 3.32E-06-0.018289 -0.030769 0.0005627 0.0003345 0.000947

-0.00907 -0.042507 0.0003855 8.226568E-05 0.0018070.009011 0.028941 0.0002608 8.119232E-05 0.0008380.008765 0.019388 0.0001699 7.682332E-05 0.000376

-0.019727 -0.029467 0.0005813 0.0003891718 0.0008680.016527 0.037814 0.000625 0.0002731437 0.001430.003383 -0.043085 -0.0001458 1.144633E-05 0.001856

-0.011636 -0.023068 0.0002684 0.0001353908 0.0005320.004411 0.031863 0.0001405 1.945432E-05 0.001015-0.02488 -0.025365 0.0006311 0.0006190005 0.0006430.001255 -0.035078 -4.404E-05 1.576047E-06 0.00123-0.01961 -0.068895 0.001351 0.0003845585 0.004746

-0.027114 -0.071788 0.0019465 0.000735172 0.0051540.004588 -0.001018 -4.669E-06 2.10465E-05 1.036E-060.018064 0.045501 0.0008219 0.0003263244 0.002070.018717 0.013966 0.0002614 0.0003503338 0.0001950.014848 0.03107 0.0004613 0.0002204714 0.000965

-0.015095 -0.031066 0.0004689 0.0002278457 0.0009650.004743 -0.001603 -7.604E-06 2.249981E-05 2.57E-06

-0.028621 -0.055877 0.0015992 0.0008191469 0.0031220.006913 0.002721 1.8811E-05 4.778849E-05 7.404E-060.012318 0.050543 0.0006226 0.0001517419 0.0025550.043029 0.06361 0.0027371 0.0018514742 0.004046

0.002 0.0085 1.7E-05 3.99993E-06 7.226E-05-0.020699 -0.028597 0.0005919 0.0004284292 0.0008180.011256 0.002169 2.4416E-05 0.0001266899 4.705E-06

-0.003383 -0.065553 0.0002218 1.144583E-05 0.004297-0.009892 -0.056916 0.000563 9.784846E-05 0.003239-0.014492 -0.02 0.0002898 0.0002100258 0.00040.002083 0.048335 0.0001007 4.338465E-06 0.0023360.022133 4.215847 0.0933086 0.0004898616 17.773370.017701 0.033198 0.0005877 0.0003133417 0.001102

-0.005857 -0.025223 0.0001477 3.430543E-05 0.000636-0.011848 -0.004161 4.93E-05 0.0001403805 1.731E-05-0.008864 -0.015669 0.0001389 7.857896E-05 0.000246

0.00647 0.001658 1.0728E-05 4.185684E-05 2.749E-06-0.008603 -0.017746 0.0001527 7.400647E-05 0.000315

Page 16: TATA Motors Fundamental Analysis

-0.015616 -0.014291 0.0002232 0.0002438517 0.000204-0.034569 -0.043633 0.0015084 0.0011950321 0.0019040.018771 0.021239 0.0003987 0.0003523543 0.0004510.008587 -0.018696 -0.0001605 7.373813E-05 0.00035

0.01311 0.040602 0.0005323 0.0001718623 0.001649-0.009502 0.010355 -9.839E-05 9.028978E-05 0.000107

-0.01224 -0.031628 0.0003871 0.000149829 0.0010.020328 0.055719 0.0011326 0.0004132078 0.0031050.022527 0.034721 0.0007821 0.0005074522 0.001206

-0.006523 0.028808 -0.0001879 4.255531E-05 0.000830.006496 -0.000811 -5.267E-06 4.220253E-05 6.573E-070.013051 0.055549 0.000725 0.0001703224 0.0030860.004168 -0.00201 -8.38E-06 1.737536E-05 4.042E-06

-0.026186 4.046445 0.1173504 0.0135829762 17.84232

β=1.2Rf=4%