Tarje Nissen-Meyer Dept Earth Sciences,University of Oxford

OpenCon; Weston Library, Oxford

Dec 1, 2017

Reproducible research for an irreproducible planet

“The point is, you can never be too greedy.”

(says the most powerful person on the planet)

Why open up and share?

…If your interest lies in being the most powerful person rather than the planet

True!

23 core global risksGeo-datasets/-processes:

Multi-scale data and processes Interdependent Uncertainties

Communication across disciplines Informed decision making

Lack of sufficient dataLack of consistent theory

Deep uncertainties

The Black Swan

How do we decipher and maintain the pulse of the precious?

There is only One Earth (on Earth)

How to constrain it?

The task is …“simple”: … too much, too messy … too expensive … ill-posed, non-unique … poorly constrained, unverifiable

1) collect data 2) simulate 3) make model 4) interpret

Data sets are: complex, noisy, diverse unique (unrepeatable)

interconnected difficult to understand

The problem

Scientists

We need to:Value rare/unique datasets, evaluate outputs

Consider & communicate uncertainties Communicate across disciplines

Get facts and reason back!

Seismic  datasets

Promote exchange of seismic and other geophysical data and knowledge through the use of standards for network operations and data formats, and

through pursuing policies of free and unrestricted data access. www.iris.edu (since 1990s)

EPOS will bring together Earth scientists, national research infrastructures, ICT (Information & Communication Technology) experts, decision makers, and public to develop new concepts and tools for accurate, durable, and sustainable answers to societal questions concerning geo-hazards and those geodynamic phenomena (including geo-resources) relevant to the

environment and human welfare.

"At the end of the day, reproducibility is what separates science from superstition" (S. Fomel), www.reproducibility.org

epos-ip.org

Open seismology

Secretive dataMars Insight launch 2018

Earth imaging: 5 Million free waveforms

Outer space: Mars seismometerMars Insight launch 2018

There’s  another  Elephant  in  the  room….

Schaeffer and Lebedev 2013

“The variety of beings should not rashly be diminished.”(Kant’s anti-razor, 1781)

…  my  model  is  much  better  than  yours!

Communication lessons…

My statement: “a lot of our current work in seismology focuses on

improving estimates of seismic hazard by using sophisticated numerical models ”

How to communicate (deep) uncertainties?

…BBC turns this into:“"Tarje Nissen-Meyer says lots is being done to improve the science of predicting, with sophisticated numerical

models.”

Facilita;ng  open,  fair,  globally  accessible  scien;fic  communica;on

Total article views: 4,622

Putting it all together: Subjects, objects, machines

1.Facilitating information transfer (for science, society, policy) 2.Reproducibility of methods, data processing, publications 3.Inclusivity: access of (publicly funded) publications for any reader 4.Managing & mining large datasets 5.Connecting disciplines 6.Equality (across hierarchies, genders, ethnicities, social groups) 7.Multidisciplinary modern science, not monolithic ivory vanity 8.Engage the public, policy-makers, pupils

Why open up and share?What’s missing?1.Recognition for data collection & software development (doi) 2.Avoid exploitation, maintain quality control 3.Allow for weighted referencing 4.Metrics for recognising transferable & transformative research:

Across disciplines, collaborative, open

Thank you!