Target setting for the SEE 2020 Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategystrategy

Jahorina, Bosnia and HerzegovinaSeptember 11th 2012

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Agenda

• Introduction and objectives

• Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals

• Target setting for Integrated Growth

• Target setting for Smart Growth

• Target setting for Sustainable Growth

• Target setting for Inclusive Growth

• Target setting for Governance for Growth

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Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision

SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference:

i. Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages;

ii. Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs

iii. Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development;

iv. Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all

v. Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption

A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial

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The proposed process

Nov 2011

Apr2012

Jun2012

Sep2012

Nov2012

Vision adopted

First draft targetsTargets discussed

Second draft targets

Written procedure & third draft

SEE Min

SEE IC

SEE IC

Final draft targets

Targets adopted

SEE Min

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Task Force Meeting

2nd Task Force Meeting

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

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• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

6

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

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Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU

Source: World Bank

46%

8

Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU

Sources: IMF, World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010

9

Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services

Source: World Bank

600,000

250,000

10Sources: World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010

Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services

Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit

11Source: World Bank

Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit

12Sources: World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

13

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)

14

Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economiesYears: 2004 and 2009For 2004, the exchange rate used was 1.324$=1€

Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)

15

Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economiesYear: OECD data for 2009; ALB (goods only), BIH, HRV, MKD, and SRB (goods only) submitted data for 2010

Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows

16Source: World Bank

17Source: World Bank

Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows

15, 000

18Sources: World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010

Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

19

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed

20Source: World Bank

?31,000

21Sources: World Bank and SEE economiesYear: 2010

Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

22

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Sustainable Growth: Growth of Enterprise Creation

23

Source: SEE economiesYear: 2010; ALB submitted data for 2011

Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita

24Source: World Bank

25

Source: World BankYear: 2010

Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita

Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita

26Sources: World Bank (both for the export data and the population data) and SEE economiesYear: 2010

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

27

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate

EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category 20-64 year olds 70.3% to 75% in 2020

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46%

Sources: World Bank; data for Kosovo* found from statistical office

Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate

EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category 20-64 year olds 70.3% to 75% in 2020

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Sources: World Bank (National statistics office for Kosovo*) and SEE economiesYear: 2008; ALB submitted 2009; HRV, MKD, MNE, and SRB submitted 2010 data

Inclusive Growth: Increase of rate of population with tertiary education attainment

30Source: EurostatNote: SEE average contains HRV, MKD, ROU, BLG

EU2020 target

36%

Inclusive Growth: Increase of rate of population with tertiary education attainment

31

Sources: Eurostat (Proportion of the population aged 30 to 34 having tertiary educational attainment) and SEE economiesEconomies’ data (proportion of population 15+)Year: 2011; MNE submitted data for 2008; MKD and HRV gave data for 2010; SRB submitted data for 2002

EU2020 target

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

32

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness

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Source: World BankYear: 2010

Thank you for your Thank you for your attentionattention

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