target setting for the see 2020 strategy sarajevo, bosnia and herzegovina october 3 rd 2012 1

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Target setting for the Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

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Page 1: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Target setting for the SEE 2020 Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategystrategy

Sarajevo, Bosnia and HerzegovinaOctober 3rd 2012

1

Page 2: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Agenda

• Introduction and objectives

• Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals

• Target setting for Integrated Growth

• Target setting for Smart Growth

• Target setting for Sustainable Growth

• Target setting for Inclusive Growth

• Target setting for Governance for Growth

2

Page 3: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision

SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference:

i. Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages;

ii. Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs

iii. Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development;

iv. Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all

v. Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption

A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial

3

Page 4: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

The proposed process

Nov 2011

Apr2012

Jun2012

Sep2012

Nov2012

Vision adopted

First draft targets

Targets discussed

Second draft targets

Written procedure & third draft

SEE Min

SEE IC

SEE IC

Final draft targets

Targets adopted

SEE Min

4

1st Task Force Meeting

2nd Task Force Meeting

Page 5: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

5

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Page 6: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

6

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Page 7: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

7

Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU

Source: World Bank data used for 2000-2009.Data submitted by SEE economies for 2010 only. Eurostat data used for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia due to discrepancy between national and Eurostat sources.Averages weighted by population.Data labels show the average for 2010No data submitted for Kosovo* and weights were adjusted accordingly.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

Page 8: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

8

Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU

1. Increase of GDP per Capita Relative to the EU 

expressed as a percentage of EU GDP per capita

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 28.00 35.00 1.3

BiH 29.00 35-40 1.3

CRO 59.00 70.00 1.2

KOS

MKD 36.48 40-45 1.2

MNE 41.00 48-49 1.2

SER 34.00 41.00 1.2

SEE average 37.76 45.77 1.2

Weighted average based on economies' share in the total population of the region. No data was provided for Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted to reflect missing data.

Page 9: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

9

Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services

Source: SEE economies provided data for 2010 baseline. World Bank data used for 2000-2009.Data not provided by Kosovo*. Montenegro only provided baseline 2010. No data for Serbia was available for 2000 to 2006 so the economy is not included in the sum for SEE for these years.

Page 10: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

10

Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services

2. Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services

expressed in millions of USD

2010 2020 Multiplier NotesALB 10,188 22,000 2.2

BiH 14,024 31,978 2.3 Baseline figure shows high discrepancy with int'l sources

CRO 46,909 120,000 2.6

KOS

MKD 10,312 20,000 1.9

MNE 4,080

SER 32,976 78,000 2.4

SEE 118,489 279,086 2.4

The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.

Page 11: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit

11

Source: World Bank data for 2000-2009. SEE economies for 2010 baseline.Averages weighted by GDP PPP based on Eurostat 2010 dataKosovo* did not submit data for 2010 and data only available from 2000 to 2005 so the economy is not included in the average. Weights were adjusted accordingly.

Page 12: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit

12

3. Reduction of Trade Deficit / Improvement of Trade Balance

expressed as percent of GDP

2010 2020 Difference Notes

ALB -21.0 -12.0 9.0

BiH -20.8 -27.0 -6.2 Deficit forecast for 2015

CRO 0.0 0.0 0.0

KOS

MKD -19.0 -17.0 2.0

MNE -28.4 -20.0 8.4

SER -17.0 -14.8 2.2

SEE -13.0 -11.8  Weighted average based on economies' share in the total GDP of the region. No data provided for Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted to reflect 6 economies and based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.

Page 13: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

13

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Page 14: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)

14

Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economies for 2010 baseline.Years: 2004 and 2009For 2004, the exchange rate used was 1.324$=1€No data submitted for Kosovo* so the economy is not included in the SEE sum.

Page 15: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services)

15

4. Growth of Intra-regional Trade in Goods

expressed in million EUR

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 436.0 1,526 3.5 BiH 3,185.3

CRO 3,645.0 12,000 3.3 According to the target and projections of OECD for SEE

KOS MKD 1,238.0 3,500 2.8 MNE 800.5 SER 3,202 12,003 3.7

SEE 12,507 42,983 3.4

The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.

Page 16: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows

16

Source: SEE economies for 2010 baseline. World Bank data for 2000-2009. Kosovo* did not submit data.No data for Kosovo* available for 2000 to 2003 so the economy is not included in the SEE sum for these years. No data for Montenegro was available for 2000 to 2006 so the economy is not included in the SEE sum.

Page 17: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows

17

5. Growth of Overall FDI Inflows

in current USD million

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 1,049 2,966 2.8 BiH 290 763 2.6 CRO 544 1,088 2.0 KOS MKD 210 780 3.7 MNE 717 SER 1,138 2,958 2.6

SEE 3,948 9,992 2.5

The target sum was calculated by multiplying the regional SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.

Page 18: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

18

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Page 19: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed

19

Source: SEE economies provided data for the 2010 baseline in euros. Data from 2000-2010 World Bank.Averages weighted by populationNo data submitted by Kosovo*. Weights are adjusted accordingly.The 2020 target is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline number by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies.

Page 20: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed

20

6. Growth of GDP per Person Employed

in EUR

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 9,767 13,986 1.4 BiH 14,911 20,875 1.4

CRO 29,117 37,852 1.3 According to the target and projection of OECD for SEE

KOS MKD 16,708 21,700 1.3 MNE 14,823 SER 12,319 16,113 1.3

SEE 16,333 21,909 1.3

The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based on the economies' share in the population of the region. The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on data for population.

Page 21: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

21

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Page 22: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Enterprise Creation

22

7. Growth of Enterprise Creation (Net)

number of companies registered in the reporting period - number of companies de-registered

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 12,504 9,700 Net company creation in 2020: 13,500 registered – 3,800 deregistered

BiH 1,608 Baseline figure refers to 2012

CRO 4,509 9,000

KOS

MKD 1,023 1,000

MNE

SER -1,914 30,000

SEE 2,643  

Page 23: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita

23

Source: World BankNo data for Kosovo* and Montenegro were available so the economies are not included in the SEE sum. The 2020 target was computed by multiplying the 2010 baseline with the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies.

Page 24: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita

24

8. Growth of Exports of Goods and Services per Capita

expressed in EUR

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 1,113 2,966 2.7

BiH 952 2010 figure shows a large discrepancy with WB data - services export data most probably not included

CRO 4,008 8,002 2.0 In accordance with the agreed projectionKOS MKD 1,547 3,094 2.0 MNE 1,748 SER 1,381 3,648 2.6

SEE 1,827 4,389 2.4

The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based on the economies' share in the population of the region. The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE 2010 baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on IMF data for population.

Page 25: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

25

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Page 26: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate

26

Source: SEE economies provided baseline data for 2010. World Bank data used for 2001 – 2009.Averages weighted by population based on World Bank 2010 population data.The regional average includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and the FYR Macedonia for all years as well as Serbia for 2005 to 2010. Weights are adjusted accordingly. Kosovo* did not provide data.

Page 27: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate

27

9. Growth of Overall Employment Rate (15+)

employment rate in the 15+ age group

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 47.00 53.00 1.1 Indirect calculation taking in the consideration employment and population growth

BiH 32.50 33.10 1.0 Forecast for 2015CRO 46.60 55.00 1.2 KOS MKD 38.70 42-45 1.1 MNE 40.30 SER 37.90 42.30 1.1

SEE 40.20 44.78 1.1

The regional SEE 2010 baseline is a weighted average based on the economies' share in the population of the region. The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional SEE 2010 baseline by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on IMF data for population.

Page 28: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Inclusive Growth: Increase Rate of Population with Tertiary Education

28

10. Increase of Rate of Population With Tertiary Education

per cent of population 30-34 years old - census data or other sources

2010 2020 MultiplierNotes

ALB 8.85 15.00 1.7 Indirect calculation taking into consideration average student graduation increasing by 1% annually

BiH 8.20 Per cent of working age populationCRO 24.30 35.00 1.4 KOS MKD 17.10 MNE 23.60 SER 23.00 38.50 1.7 SEE 17.96

Page 29: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

• Overall Strategic Targets:a) Increase of GDP per capita expressed in

PPP relative to the EUb) Growth of total trade of goods and

servicesc) Reduction of trade deficit

• Integrated Growtha) Growth of intra-regional trade in goods

and servicesb) Growth of overall FDI inflows

• Smart Growtha) Growth of GDP per person employed

An initial set of target indicators

29

• Sustainable Growtha) Growth of enterprise creationb) Growth of export of goods and services per

capita

• Inclusive Growtha) Growth of overall employment rateb) Increase of rate of population with tertiary

education

• Governance for Growtha) Increase government effectiveness

Page 30: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness

30

Source: World BankYear: 2010The average is a simple average of the economies’ scores.

Page 31: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness

31

11. Increase Government Effectiveness

Score on the World Bank Institute index is transformed into a score between 0 to 5. Original scores are on a scale between -2.5 and 2.5.

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 2.23 2.68 1.2

BiH 1.77 2.12 1.2

CRO 3.12 3.74 1.2

KOS 1.90 2.28 1.2

MKD 2.32 2.78 1.2

MNE 2.58 3.10 1.2

SER 2.40 2.88 1.2

SEE 2.33 2.80 1.2 The SEE average is a simple average of the economies' scores (ranging between 0 and 5).

Page 32: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Thank you for your Thank you for your attentionattention

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Page 33: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

AnnexAnnex

33

Page 34: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

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Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services

2. Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Servicesexpressed in million USD

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 10,188 22,000 2.2

BiH 14,024 21,177 1.5 Baseline figure shows high discrepancy with int'l sources; Forecasted figure is for 2015

CRO 46,909 120,000 2.6 KOS MKD 10,312 20,000 1.9 MNE 4,080 SER 32,976 78,000 2.4

SEE sum 118,489 265,773 2.2

The target sum is calculated by multiplying the regional baseline for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets provided by SEE economies. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.

Page 35: Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina October 3 rd 2012 1

Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows

35

5. Growth of Overall FDI Inflows

in current USD million

2010 2020 Multiplier Notes

ALB 1,049 2,966 2.8 BiH 290 470 1.6 FDI forecast for 2015 in EURCRO 544 1,088 2.0 KOS MKD 210 780 3.7 MNE 717 SER 1,138 2,958 2.6

SEE 3,948 9,411 2.4

The target sum was calculated by multiplying the regional SEE baseline number for 2010 by the weighted multipliers of the 2020 targets. Weights are adjusted for missing data and are based on Eurostat data for GDP at purchasing power standard.