© OECD/IEA 2012

Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future

Ms. Maria van der Hoeven, Executive DirectorMr. Bo Diczfalusy, DirectorPresentation to Press June 11 2012

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures

© OECD/IEA 2012

6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results

The 6°C Scenario

4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency

The 4°C Scenario

2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions

The 2°C Scenario

Sustainable future still in reach

© OECD/IEA 2012

Are we on track to reach a clean

energy future?

NO ✗

Can we get on track?

YES ✓

Is a clean energy transition urgent?

YES ✓

Recommendations to Governments

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy

2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future

3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

A smart, sustainable energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

A smart, sustainable energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

Clean energy: slow lane to fast track

© OECD/IEA 2012

Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas

Significant action is required to get back on track

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000 OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGas with CCSGasCoal with CCSCoal

Low-carbon electricity: a clean core

© OECD/IEA 2012

Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS

TW

h

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

2 500

5 000

7 500

OECD China India Other non-OECD

Po

we

r G

en

era

tion

fro

m N

atu

ral G

as

TW

hNatural Gas: a transitional fuel

© OECD/IEA 2012

Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’

The CCS infant must grow quickly

© OECD/IEA 2012

Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt C

O2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000Other industries

Chemicals and petrochemicals

Aluminium

Pulp and paper

Iron and steel

Cement

2 DS

Industry must become more efficient

© OECD/IEA 2012

Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.

GtC

O2

Electric vehicles need to come of age

© OECD/IEA 2012

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

50

100

150

200FCEV

Electricity

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Diesel hybrid

Gasoline hybrid

CNG/LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050

Pas

seng

er L

DV

sal

es (

mill

ion)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)

mill

ion

sa

les/

yea

rTranslating targets into action

© OECD/IEA 2012

Government targets need to be backed by policy action

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Manufacturers production/sales

Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)

mill

ion

sa

les/

yea

rTranslating targets into action

© OECD/IEA 2012

Government targets need to be backed by policy action

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Space heating22%

Water heating12%

Cooking15%

Cooling and ventilation5%Lighting

5%

Appliances10%

Space heating, 7%

Water heating, 2%

Cooling and ventilation, 3%

Lighting, 3%

Other15%

Total energy savings 33 EJ

Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Services

Residential

About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

Billi

on h

ouse

hold

s Building sector challenges differ

OECD

75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

Billi

on h

ouse

hold

s Building sector challenges differ

OECD Non OECD

75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050

Heating & Cooling: huge potential

© OECD/IEA 2012

Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.

Emissions must be eliminated by 2075

© OECD/IEA 2012

A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS.

10%

3%

Undiscounted

Without _x000d_price effect

With _x000d_price effect

Additional_x000d_investment

Tota

l sav

ings

Fuel

savi

ngs

- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

Power

Industry

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Fuel savings

Additional invest-ment

10%

3%

Undiscounted

Without _x000d_price effect

With _x000d_price effect

Additional_x000d_investment

Tota

l sav

ings

Fuel

savi

ngs

- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

Industry

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Total

Fuel savings

Additional invest-ment

10%

3%

Undiscounted

Without _x000d_price effect

With _x000d_price effect

Additional_x000d_investment

Tota

l sav

ings

Fuel

savi

ngs

- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

Power

Industry

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Additional invest-ment

Clean energy investment pays off

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

USD trillion

10%

3%

Undiscounted

Without _x000d_price effect

With _x000d_price effect

Additional_x000d_investment

Tota

l sav

ings

Fuel

savi

ngs

- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

Power

Industry

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Fuel savings

Additional invest-ment

Clean energy investment pays off

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

USD trillion

10%

3%

Undiscounted

Without _x000d_price effect

With _x000d_price effect

Additional_x000d_investment

Tota

l sav

ings

Fuel

savi

ngs

- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

Industry

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Total

Fuel savings

Additional invest-ment

Clean energy investment pays off

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

USD trillion

© OECD/IEA 2012

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