Guilt by Association?How Anti-U.S. Sentiment May Undermine the Legitimacy of Intergovernmental Organizations

Tana JohnsonUniversity of Chicagotana@uchicago.edu

The Research Question

• Anti-U.S. sentiment is prevalent and possibly growing, but does it matter in international relations?

• My Answer: It can, by undermining the legitimacy of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). I call this the possibility of “guilt by association.”

“Guilt by Association” Hypothesis

• An actor holding unfavorable perceptions of the United States likely also questions the legitimacy of the IGOs largely created by the U.S. or in which the U.S. possesses substantial ability to intervene.

The Dependent Variables

Total Observations: 6,479

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Distrust a Lot Distrust a Bit Trust a Bit Trust a Lot Don’t Know/No Answer

Percent

UN

WTO

WB

IMF

“To what extent do you trust [each IGO] to operate in the best interests of society? If you don’t know what to reply or have no particular opinion, please say so.”

The Key Explanatory Variable

“Do you think the USA has a good influence or a bad influence on your country?”

Total Observations: 6,479

Rather Good28%

Rather Bad20%

Bad10%

Neither22%

Good14%

Missing6%

Probit ResultsdistrustWTO distrustUN distrustWB distrustIMF

opinUSA 0.163 ***

(0.030)

0.153 ***

(0.032)

0.166 ***

(0.034)

0.171 ***

(0.032)

opintechnoc 0.145 ***

(0.038)

0.071 ***

(0.015)

0.132 ***

(0.024)

0.075 ***

(0.026)

opingovt 0.218 ***

(0.034)

0.183 ***

(0.034)

0.196 ***

(0.027)

0.187 ***

(0.040)

globalexp -0.037

(0.031)

-0.033

(0.023)

-0.021

(0.021)

-0.043

(0.032)

pprspermo -0.001

((0.001)

-0.001

(0.003)

-0.000

(0.002)

0.002

(0.002)

worryglobzn 0.042

(0.072)

0.043

(0.104)

-0.082

(0.085)

-0.020

(0.074)

nationalism -0.052

(0.049)

-0.017

(0.035)

0.005

(0.049)

0.017

(0.048)

gendistrust 0.015

(0.038)

0.068***

(0.021)

0.084

(0.052)

0.099*

(0.053)

Observations 4582 4813 4593 4494

Estimated Probabilities that distrust[IGO] = 1

All variables at mean values EXCEPT: WTO UN WB IMF Ave. Change

from Baseline

(in % pts)

(1) opinUSA & opintechnoc & opingovt at min. 0.12 0.17 0.11 0.17 - 0.18

(2) opinUSA at min. (“good”) 0.22 0.25 0.20 0.25 - 0.10

(3) opingovt at min. (“trust a lot”) 0.23 0.27 0.21 0.27 - 0.08

(4) opintechnoc at min. (“very good”) 0.27 0.32 0.24 0.32 - 0.04

(5) Baseline: all variables at mean values 0.32 0.35 0.29 0.35 n/a

(6) opintechnoc at max. (“bad”) 0.37 0.38 0.34 0.38 + 0.04

(7) opingovt at max. (“distrust a lot”) 0.47 0.48 0.42 0.48 + 0.14

(8) opinUSA at max. (“bad”) 0.46 0.48 0.42 0.48 + 0.13

(9) opinUSA & opintechnoc & opingovt at max. 0.66 0.63 0.61 0.63 + 0.31

Note: all estimates are statistically significant at the 1% level.