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Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater? Climate Information contributes to better water management Ramasamy Selvaraju

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Page 1: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA

Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA

Who owns groundwater?

Climate Information contributes to better water management

Who owns groundwater?

Climate Information contributes to better water management

Ramasamy Selvaraju

Page 2: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Smallholder farming systemsSmallholder farming systems

1. Smallholder farms have undergone substantial changes in the last century increasing their exposure to climate variability

2. 78% of total operational holdings occupies 32% of total agricultural area

3. The number of shallow tube wells and deep tube wells has increased by about 100% over the last 10 years

Page 3: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients for the distributions of total farm income

(FI) and agricultural income (AI) under various irrigated

cropping systems

Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients for the distributions of total farm income

(FI) and agricultural income (AI) under various irrigated

cropping systems (d) Overall

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

FI (G = 0.42)AI (G = 0.45)Absolute equality

(a) drylands

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

FI (G = 0.0.39)AI (G = 0.32)absolute equality

(b) Irrigated uplands

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

FI (G = 0.0.37)AI (G = 0.37)absolute equality

(c) Irrigated lowlands

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

FI (G = 0.34)AI (G = 0.36)absolute equality

Cumulative fraction of farmers

Cum

ulat

ive

frac

tion

of in

com

e

Page 4: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

What needs to be done?What needs to be done?

Climate is one of the many factors influencing agriculture

Make the farmers to understand the climatic risks / opportunities

Help to manage the system through local knowledge and scientific tools

Page 5: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

To utilize the ability to predict climate variability and change on range of scales to improve decision making using climatic risk management strategies in agriculture at farm, regional and national scales for enhancing resilience and sustainability.

To utilize the ability to predict climate variability and change on range of scales to improve decision making using climatic risk management strategies in agriculture at farm, regional and national scales for enhancing resilience and sustainability.

AIM

Page 6: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Overall aim of the projectOverall aim of the project

To assess and manage the impact of climate variability on the irrigated crop production systems to improve smallholder food security in a highly vulnerable semi-arid India.

Page 7: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Specific objectivesSpecific objectives To document the information on climate and its predictability,

water resources and water need of the irrigated crop production systems.

To assess the impact of El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on water availability and on crop yield through system simulation approaches.

To develop a ENSO based resource allocation and cropping decision framework for the smallholder situations.

To demonstrate the benefit of seasonal climate forecasting to the smallholding farmers, extension and PWD workers of irrigated cropping systems to manage climatic risks.

Page 8: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Diverse Cropping SystemsDiverse Cropping Systems

Page 9: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Correlation between monthly SOI values and seasonal rainfall

Correlation between monthly SOI values and seasonal rainfall

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Cor

rela

tion

Coe

ffic

ient

SMWM

Page 10: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

The spatial pattern of correlation coefficient between JJA SST anomalies and (a) summer and (b) winter monsoon rainfall

The spatial pattern of correlation coefficient between JJA SST anomalies and (a) summer and (b) winter monsoon rainfall

Page 11: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Ju

ne

-S

ep

te

mb

er ra

in

, m

m

197019751980198519901995Year

ObservedHindcast

R = 0.512

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Sim

ula

te

d g

ro

un

dn

ut yie

ld

, kg

/h

a197019751980198519901995

Year

ObservedHindcastR = 0.554

Observed and hindcast station rainfall and simulated groundnut yields based on transformed, cross-validated

ECHAM predictions.

Page 12: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Spatial variation in ground water table (depth from surface in meters)

Spatial variation in ground water table (depth from surface in meters)

Page 13: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

The average monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) under ENSO phases

The average monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) under ENSO phases

(b) PET (mm)

70

100

130

160

190

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

w arm

cold

neutral

(a) Rainfall (mm)

0

50

100

150

200

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

w arm

cold

neutral

Page 14: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Decadal water requirement of irrigated maize (120 days duration) under various ENSO phases

Decadal water requirement of irrigated maize (120 days duration) under various ENSO phases

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Decades (10 days)

Irri

ga

tion

re

qu

ire

me

nt (

mm

)

warm

cold

neutral

Page 15: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Water balance components for irrigated maize (June-September) under ENSO composites

Water balance components for irrigated maize (June-September) under ENSO composites

Particulars Warm Cold Neutral

Effective rainfall (mm) 161 196 198

ETcrop (mm) 640 562 615

Total gross irrigation requirement (mm)

600 450 500

Irrigation efficiency (%) 77 83 82

Actual water use by crop (mm) 640 562 615

Page 16: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Irrigation water requirement (mm) of crops conditioned on ENSO phases

Irrigation water requirement (mm) of crops conditioned on ENSO phases

Particulars Warm Cold Neutral Banana 1411 1206 1346Vegetable – I 511 411 468Summer Maize 600 450 500Vegetable – II 521 451 486Winter Maize 529 455 525Total 3572 2973 3325

Page 17: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Monthly irrigation requirement of crops (banana, vegetable-1, summer maize, vegetable -2 and winter maize)

Monthly irrigation requirement of crops (banana, vegetable-1, summer maize, vegetable -2 and winter maize)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

(b) Cold

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Banana

veg-1

S-Maize

veg-2

W-Maize

Irri

ga

tion

re

qu

ire

me

nt (

m3 )

(a) Warm

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Banana

veg-1

S-Maize

veg-2

W-Maize

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Page 18: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Farm level water availability scenario under various ENSO phases

Farm level water availability scenario under various ENSO phases

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Wat

er a

vaila

bilit

y (m

3) warm

cold

neutral

Page 19: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Area under irrigation for various crops conditioned by ENSO phases and price scenarios

Area under irrigation for various crops conditioned by ENSO phases and price scenarios

(a) High price

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Banana S-veg S-Maize w-veg w-maize

Are

a (

ha

)

warmcoldneutral

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Banana S-veg S-Maize w-veg w-maize

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Banana S-veg S-Maize w-veg w-maize

(b) Medium price

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Banana S-veg S-Maize w-veg w-maize

Are

a (

ha

)

warmcoldneutral

Page 20: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Gross margin (Rs.) from irrigated area of a 3 ha farm under ENSO phases and produce price scenarios

Gross margin (Rs.) from irrigated area of a 3 ha farm under ENSO phases and produce price scenarios

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

low medium high

Price Scenario

Gro

ss M

arg

in (

Rs.

)

warmcoldneutral

Page 21: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Economic value of climate forecasts in dryland systems

Economic value of climate forecasts in dryland systems

Crop Decision Economic value (Rs./ha/year)Neg Pos Fal Ris Neu

Groundnut Stand density 2546 0 2049 0 0

N Fertiliser 17 79 115 0 0

Crop Choice 4128 0 4059 0 0

Cotton Sowing window 0 751 78 0 580N fertiliser 600 290 548 0 0

Sorghum(Rabi)

Stand density 43 0 272 83 0

Page 22: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Are simulation models useful for smallholder farmers?

• Management responses to seasonal climate forecasts (developing the options)

• Converting climate forecasts into management options to satisfy the diverse requirements of smallholder farmers

SOI Phase

Negative HD + FFS

Negative LD + TFS

Falling HD + FFS

Falling LD + TFS

Gro

ss M

arg

in (

Rs./

ha)

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

-2000

-4000

-6000

(a) Avinashi

• Impacts conditioned on forecasts

SOI Phase

Negative Positive Falling Rising Near zero All years

Gro

ss

Ma

rgin

(R

s./h

a)

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

-2000

-4000

-6000

Page 23: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Media for climate informationMedia for climate information

Climate workshops – “Farmer groups”

We learned to

• Skip the mass media (message distortion)

• Use generic methods with slight modifications for different target groups

Page 24: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Can farmers understand probabilistic climate forecasts?

Can farmers understand probabilistic climate forecasts?

Yes, but …

Tried to convert the probabilities in to deterministic forecasts (320 x 0.65 = 208 mm)

Tried to convert into subjective and convenient categoriesGood rainfall / Low rainfall

Seems to understand the probabilistic forecasts, but ignores the probability and remembers only the rainfall quantity

Frequent contacts and gambling analogies

Page 25: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

• Awareness is the first step for successful implementation of climate and agriculture programmes

• Decision capacity of the farmers can be improved through climate education programmes at different levels

Improving the knowledge and decision capacity

Page 26: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

ChallengesChallenges

Message distortion and artificial skill

Farmer ‘feel’ that a forecast is “right” in neighboring village although there is no “right” or “wrong” in probabilistic forecasting

We need to understand that climate greatly affect the performance of technology

The information provider needs to understand possible consequences of options

Wrong interpretation may lead to conflicts

Many pseudo forecasters and forecasts without understanding of the physical mechanisms are emerging

Spatial variability in rainfall needs to be better addressed

Climate knowledge is more than just providing a forecast

How can we combine and evaluate the local indigenous knowledge with the scientific technologies?

Climate communication – Capacity building at various levels

Ownership of the climate information, options and decisions by the end users

Improving the predictability

Page 27: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Participatory farmer interactionsParticipatory farmer interactionsWe engaged with local farmer groups to

understand their agricultural system and their needs

We considered their practices and rules of thumb and considered those as part of our system analysis framework

We developed options and discussed risks and opportunities as well as consequences of management alternatives through simulation modelling

We encouraged farmers to make informed decision after understanding the risk and consequences

We solicited feed back and responses from farmers and reconsidered options

Page 28: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

How demand-driven research helps for participatory co-learnig?

How demand-driven research helps for participatory co-learnig?

Focus group meetings

On-farm varietal evaluation

On-farm experiments on varietal response to

drought

New insights into system analysis

Analysing the options

Page 29: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

AWARENESS ON WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENTAWARENESS ON WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

Public Works Department Water Technology Centre Geology Department Ground Water Board Local Political presidents State Agricultural Extension Farmers organizations NGOs

Page 30: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Knowledge to ScienceKnowledge to Science

Page 31: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

CAPACITY BUILDING ACTIVITIES CAPACITY BUILDING ACTIVITIES

National level training workshop on “Systems Approach for Climatic Risk

management in Agriculture”

Page 32: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

Training CurriculumTraining Curriculum system analysis and modeling assessment of impacts of climate variability and change

on agricultural systems climate forecasting methods use of climate forecasts in farm decision making linking climate and bio-physical models to explore

management options and outcomes management of risks in agriculture associated with

drought, floods and cyclones. application of remote sensing in climate risk

management

Page 33: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

PublicationsPublications

Page 34: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, INDIA Who owns groundwater?

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements