tads telecom summit disruptive analysis dean bubley
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Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis, Telecom Summit presentation at TADS 21-22 Nov 2013 on 'WebRTC: Beyond the Phone Call'TRANSCRIPT
WebRTC: Beyond the Phone Call Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
TADS, Bangkok, November, 2013
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
New report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Oct’13
Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
In the beginning – “Proxi-phone”
Near voice
Old distant voice [Tele-phone]
>100 years ago
Pretty good for the 19th century...
“Hegemony
of the
caller”
... but really not good enough for 21st century
Intent & context....
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Why do people make
phone calls (or send
messages, share media
or use video), anyway?
The chart you’ll never see…
Phone calls by purpose
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
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Different contexts
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Living room
Board room
Airline lounge Bar
Public transport
Out walking
At work
& Multi-tasking
Concentrating
Drunk
Asleep
1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS”
SERVICES CANNOT
FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
(MORE LIKE “DUMB SERVICES” THAN
UBIQUITOUS ONES) Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone calls
Non-call comms
Embedded app/web voice & video
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Circuit IP
Good to have “lowest
common denominator”
Ubiquity no/negative
benefit
Maybe ubiquitous
in a niche
Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
SMS
Also: cloud, storage, recording, analytics…
Voice has value beyond
a single instant
Voice has value at a
single instant
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin
Geddes Consulting 2013 November 2013
Convergence
& standards
Fragmentation & differentiation
Telephony & SMS will continue to exist, but there will be
NO more ubiquitous, interoperable services (& especially not RCS or VoLTE)
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Service
e.g. SMS, Telephony Product
e.g. Lync, Uberconference
Feature
e.g. Business social
Function
WebRTC & HTML5 are game-changers
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update November 2013
“WebRTC isn’t a standard. It’s a movement”
Irony: problems making WebRTC stronger not weaker
“Hardcore” comms developers going “down to the metal”
Building around core RTCWeb protocols & media engine
Embedding WebRTC elements into desktop applications
Longer-tail developers being addressed by API/cloud players
“Packaged” WebRTC capabilities like multiparty video
Abstraction to avoid risk from changing standards
APIs for iOS, Android apps
Next tier up of service platforms emerging too
Renewed interest in “realtime everywhere”
No “religion” about WebRTC “purity” – just get on with it!
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
(Quote from Tsahi Levent-Levi @tsahil)
View Oct’13: lead WebRTC use-cases
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Early enterprise adoption
Initial consumer web apps/devices
Live &
commercial
Verticals & corporate Pilots / pre-
commercial
Trials &
demos
Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other…
WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
The future?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Sleep Apnoea (snoring + breathing) monitoring & diagnosis:
not a “phone call”!
For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
Extend on-net services & IMS / SS7
Turbocharge Telco-OTT
apps
Sell packaged WebRTC
services to subscriber
Enhance developer platform
TV, entertain- ment & digital
services
Strengthen enterprise &
verticals
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Also: invest / incubate
Improve own CRM & systems
Maybe M2M, devices etc
IMS should be <30% total
WebRTC effort &
investment. Too slow, too
call-centric
WebRTC made easier via 3rd-party APIs
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
CU-RTC-Web?
Conclusion
WebRTC is maybe most exciting thing in comms for 10 years
Already here & being used
A “movement” as well as a standard
“Democratisation” of voice & video into web & apps
Goes beyond traditional “call” model of user interaction
Realtime data will be the real surprise
Not just about browsers
A new ecosystem for developers, telcos & cloud players
Billions of devices & users!
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013
For WebRTC report & quarterly update
details email information@disruptive-
analysis.com
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 November 2013