t3-p59 insights into future technologies for nuclear …patrick noack, luis gaya-piqué, amit jain,...
TRANSCRIPT
T3-P59
Insights into future technologies for nuclear test verification:
Technology Foresight at the CTBTO Patrick Noack, Luis Gaya-Piqué, Amit Jain, Georgios Haralabus, Matthias Auer, Patrick Grenard
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization
Disclaimer: The views expressed on this poster are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the CTBTO Preparatory Commission. SnT 2013
We are open to new ideas and suggestions for our
Foresight activities, you may also suggest new
technologies which may be relevant and which we
could include in our Knowledge Base of the
Foresight explorer.
In any case please contact our team via e-mail:
Technology Foresight
Technology Foresight is an iterative process of information gathering and vision
building in support of a strategic planning exercise, which seeks to engage with
external experts. Technology Foresight includes developing technology scenarios,
assessing a list of future technologies, develop roadmaps and work closely with the
scientific community across the world to deliver usable products for future
verification systems and methods.
Find out more on http://FORESIGHT.ctbto.org
The Figure above serves as an explanatory note of
the taxonomy that lies at the heart of the Foresight
Explorer.
• A taxonomy to assess future technologies and
technological needs in an objective and
comparable manner.
• Describe each technology and technological
need as a unique and custom-generated “card”
that displays all the relevant information.
• Reach out to experts in the field to evaluate
technologies and needs.
• View and assess in Foresight Explorer.
A Taxonomy to assess and categorize technological needs & solutions
In order to efficiently and effectively categorise potential
future CTBT verification technologies as well as
technology needs, other processes, concepts and ideas, we
have developed a dedicated taxonomy. The purpose is to
provide an objective and shared understanding of the
different categories thereby enabling experts to review and
analyse hundreds of potential technologies.
For each assessed technology, a card is generated; which
we display in Foresight Explorer and which offers
powerful visualisation of the taxonomy’s parameters for
each technology, enabling a quick overview and database
exploration.
Technology Roadmaps
Interact with Foresight Explorer
(see poster T3-P18)
Maintaining the relevance of the verification system
The performance must be consistent with the scientific and technical
state-of-the-art to continuously ensure effectiveness and maintain
trustworthiness.
Promoting cost efficiency
New technology contributes to reducing maintenance and operational costs.
Protecting investments and avoiding obsolescence
Effective stewardship of the verification system requires a technology base
that is concurrent with partner organizations and providers.
Technology Watch
The purpose of the “Technology Watch” activity is in the first place to provide
inputs for future technology scenarios as part of CTBTO’s Technology Foresight
exercise.
Among other means Bibliometric Analysis is an ongoing effort to assess literature
to identify emerging trends of research with potential future application for
improvements in nuclear explosion verification. Bibliometric Analysis is funded under the EU Council Decision IV – CFSP/2010/036/CTBTO IV
Example: Infrasound Technology Roadmap
Four key operational capabilities:
• IMS Station Performance
• IDC Station Processing
• IDC Network Processing
• Performance Monitoring and Testing
The Infrasound Technology Roadmap (ITR) builds upon
recent technical achievements to prioritize technical topics
in the context of these capabilities and guide effort and
investments within the Roadmap’s seven year timeline.
A draft version of the Roadmap is currently under
evaluation at the PTS with the intension to be brought
forward for review by the international infrasound
community who contributed at the initial phase of the
Roadmap through a Request for Contributions.
On your left hand side you can see an example of a bubble
chart in the seismic field.
This chart was generated by a co-word-analysis that is based
on the terms in the titles and abstracts of the publications found
for a topic. All terms in the titles and abstracts are extracted
and the number of occurrence for every term is being analyzed.
A relevance score is calculated. The importance of a term for
the topic or network is symbolized by the size of a bubble in
combination with the size of the font: A bigger bubble in
combination with a bigger font is a symbol for a term with a
more frequent occurrence. The diagrams do not have any axes.
Terms that often occur together in the original documents are
also arranged in closer proximity on the map.
Finally, the terms are clustered: different colors indicate
different subtopics. Terms that are in the same cluster indicate
to belong to a similar thematically context.
Objectives
Objectives
Reach consensus about a set of needs and the
technologies required to satisfy those needs
Provide a framework to plan and coordinate
technology development (7 year horizon)
Capability driven approach Foresight
Global association
Conflict resolution. Amplitude-range scaling laws for
improved decision
Seismo-acoustic data fusion at
detector or event level
Valid association improvement
Reduce analysts workload – 50% target of valid
automatic associations
Refinement of
climatology
Procedures for incorporating Met
data into operational systems
Propagation path refinement based on Met data and gravity
waves parameterization
Refine travel time and azimuth
deviation estimation
Improve phase identification and
source localization
Example: Detail view of the IDC Network Processing
Capability roadmap component