t he s cience of g lobal c limate c hange : how climate change may affect minnesota’s ecosystems...
TRANSCRIPT
THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE:
How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems
Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve
WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE?
HOW MAY CHANGES IN CLIMATE AFFECT MINNESOTA’S
ECOSYSTEMS?
WELCOME TO LAKE SUPERIOR?
Wikipedia
IT’S ALL ABOUT
THE CLIMATE
…CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time.
Wikipedia
A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type.
…AND THE
BIOMES THAT
RESULT
NORTH AMERICA’S BIOMES
MINNESOTA’S BIOMES
MN DNR
Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes.
WHERE GOES THE CLIMATE, SO GOES THE BIOMES…
TEMPERATURE
(Solar Radiation)
PRECIPITATION
(Amount & Timing)
SOIL MOISTURE
(Evapotranspiration)
Pearson Education
GLOBAL BIOMES
“SURVIVE &
THRIVE”
-14oF BOREAL FOREST 60oF
-20oF 0oF 30oF 41oF 60oF 80oF 41oF
10oF GRASSLAND 80oF
39oF DECIDUOUS 72oF
AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (U.S.) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES
J.Corney
10in. 20in. 35in. 45in. 60in.26in.
25in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 60in.
15in. BOREAL FOREST 40in.
10in. GRASSLAND 35in.
AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (U.S.) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES
J.Corney
U.S. CLIMATE RANGES
U.S.
5oC (41oF)
66cm (26in.)
CONTINENTAL U.S. BIOMES
B
Eco tone
Sub
-Tro
pica
l
Tem
pera
te
SU.S.: -12-27oC (10-80oF)
U.S.: -26-16oC (-14-60oF)
U.S.: 2-22oC (35-72oF)
TEMPERATURE
5o C
(4
1o F)
Bor
eal
S
ub-A
rctic
N
J.Corney
Semi-Mesic Mesic
Eco tone
E Arid Semi-Arid
W
25-87cm (10-35in) 40-100cm (15-40in) 65-150cm (25-60in)
PRECIPITATION
66cm
(26i
n.)
J.C
orne
y
Wikipedia
SOIL MOISTURE
Evapotranspiration67%
Surface Runoff29%
Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2%
U.S. Estimated Water Budget
USGS
EW
SOIL MOISTURE N
S
Ecotone
J.Corney
NORTH AMERICA’S PRAIRIE-FOREST BORDER
?
Major Biomes
NOAA - NWS
U.S. CLIMATE & BIOMES PROFILE
TEMPERATURE: 41oF annual avg.
PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg.
WHAT IS MINNESOTA’SCURRE
NT CLIMATE?(Averaged over the
past 100 years)
DO THESE AVERAGES
LOOK FAMILIAR?
U.S.
5oC (41oF)
66cm (26in.)
CONTINENTAL U.S. BIOMES
U.S. CLIMATE ISOLINE
S
36”
20”24”
28”
32”36”
40”16”
12”
8”
4”
<4”
28”
60”
40”
50”
8”
64oF
100” (1971-2000)
42oF
45oF
48oF
51oF
54oF
58oF
62oF
64oF 72oF
68oF
51oF
45oF
58oF
64oF
62oF
54oF
42oF
51oF 39oF 39oF
72oF
(1971-2000)
72oF 68oF
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
44oF
37oF
41oF
NWS
TEMPERATURE ISOLINES
40in
PRECIPITATION26in23in 35in
NWS
PRECIPITATION ISOLINES
5oC (41oF)
66cm (26in.)
CURRENT MN
CLIMATE OF 2010
PRECIPITATION
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
44oF
37oF
41oF
23in 35in26inNWS
ISOLINE CONVERGENCE POINT
MN SOIL MOISTURE BALANCE
USDA
- +
CONIFEROUS FOREST
DECIDUOUS FOREST
GRASSLAND
MINNESOTA BIOMES
MN DNR
HAVE THERE BEEN
CHANGES IN MN’S
CLIMATE?
IPCC
34in19in 26in 31in
36oF
40oF
43oF
41oF
Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
Tem
per
atu
re Is
ocl
ines
(oF
)
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1900-1930)
NWS adapted by C. Lehman
St. Cloud Area
22in
1930
38in23in 26in 35in
37oF
39oF
44oF
41oF
Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
Tem
per
atu
re Is
ocl
ines
(oF
)
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1930-2000)
NWS adapted by C. Lehman
2010Detroit Lakes Area
30in
CONIFEROUS FOREST
DECIDUOUS FOREST
GRASSLAND
MINNESOTA BIOMES
1930
2010
MN DNR
About a 100 mile
shift
WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S FUTURE
CLIMATE?
TEMPERATURE
3.5 – 4.0oC(6.3 – 7.2oF)INCREASE
5oC (41oF) Current Avg.becomes
9oC (48oF) Predicted Avg.
PRECIPITATION
5 – 10%(1.3 – 2.6 in.)INCREASE
26 in. Current Avg.becomes
28 in. Predicted Avg.
2100
IPCC, 2007
USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.
40in26in 37in
48oF
51oF
41oF
Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
Tem
per
atu
re Is
ocl
ines
(oF
)
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (2010-2100)
2100
NWS adapted by C. Lehman
Oh, Canada!
28in 33in
44oF
9oC (48oF)
71cm (28in.)
PREDICTED MN
CLIMATE OF 2100
GRASSLAND
DECIDUOUS FOREST
MINNESOTA BIOMES2100
SA
VA
NN
A
About a 300 mile
shift
USGRCP - National Arbor Day Foundation
Plant Hardiness Zones
2100
USDA-Forest Service
Projected (2100)
SO, MAYBE NOT THIS…
PERHAPS SOMETHING LIKE THIS…
Luka Luka
SO, HOW WILL THE TREES MIGRATE?
MN DNR
SUCCESSION, DISTURBANCE & COMPETITION
Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve2660 Fawn Lake Dr NEEast Bethel, MN 55005(763) 434-5131