THE BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION: CREATING A HYBRID REGIME?

(as of – 2009)

SIX DIMENSIONS Generational turnover Phenomena that sustain the new elite Bolivarian Vision and its use Constraints of the vision Elections and Referendums The Future

I. GENERATIONAL TURNOVER

REVOLUTIONARY LEADERSHIP: NEW & OLD

QUEBEC SUMMIT (APRIL 2001): DECISIVE IN SHAPING PRESIDENT CHAVEZ’S

CONFRONTATIONAL STYLE?

A NEW GENERATION OF IMPLEMENTERS

BOLI-BURGESIA

Vehicle of Choice

Living as a socialist revolutionary

II. PHENOMENA THAT SUSTAIN THE NEW ELITE

Class conflict Hostility to western modernization

CARACAS: MODERN & WESTERN?

CARACAS: POOR & PRIMITIVE

PHENOMENA THAT SUSTAIN THE NEW ELITE: CLASS CONFLICT

OTHER PHENOMENON THAT SUSTAIN THE BOLIVARIANS Memories (some implanted) of venality and

incompetence of the defunct liberal democratic regime

Revenge against those who benefited from Punto Fijo

Anti-Americanism

III. THE BOLIVARIAN VISION AND ITS USE

ABANDON FAILED ISI POLICIES

Replace the (mistaken) vision of using Venezuelan wealth to emulate living style of the North Atlantic “Punto Fijo” democracy unraveled because it

stimulated desire for western life style that is neither feasible or desirable

ISI (between 1958 – 1990) sought to facilitate high levels of middle class consumption

OPPOSE SAVAGE NEO-LIBERALISM

Mistaken reliance on free markets to “westernize”

Not feasible in Latin America

Not desirable

MORE ON THE BOLIVARIAN VISION

Basic human needs must be made available to all Education health care Housing Culture

Petroleum income can facilitate the vision (some things never change)

STILL MORE ON THE BOLIVARIAN VISION

Disdain for the traditional middle class Suspicion of meritocracy – a cover to exclude the

disadvantaged Emphasis: equality of outcome Highest priority - making the urban slums livable

USE OF THE BOLIVARIAN VISION: DOMESTIC AFFAIRS

Discredit accomplishments of defunct liberal democracy Failure to reach stated goals Corruption

Domestic entrepreneurial sector attacked for selfishness and corruption

Urban space with middle class symbols allowed to deteriorate

USE OF THE BOLIVARIAN VISION: TAMING THE MILITARY

Among 59 top positions in the Venezuelan armed forces - Chávez changed 45 (75%) in July 2005 and 2006

National Guard – most impacted (24 of the 29 top positions)

Ties with Cuba replace training by U.S. military asymmetric warfare

to discourage opposition hope that the Marines will land

Alternative force to regular military

CHANGES MILITARY DOCTRINE/TRAINING

War College in Los Chorros closed for six months Manuals and text books being rewritten Emphasis on asymmetric warfare

USE OF THE BOLIVARIAN VISION: INTERNATIONAL ARENA

Controlled elevation of tensions with the United States (symbol of Western consumerism)

Search for allies that seek to diminish power/influence of the United States

Policies that bolster high price for petroleum OPEC China

CHÁVEZ’S HEMISPHERIC VISION: BRAZIL PLAYS A KEY

ROLE IN REDUCING U.S. INFLUENCE

IV. CONSTRAINTS ON CHÁVEZ’S BOLIVARIAN “VISION” Class conflict emphasis

complicates using expertise/talent developed between 1958-98

Talent necessary to stem deterioration of infrastructure

OTHER CONSTRAINING CONSEQUENCES Failure to define role for loyal opposition

strengthens option of political change by force

Discouragement of foreign investment from the North Atlantic – unintended consequence - increases dependence on petroleum income

“Small vision” ISI strengthens dependence on revenue from petroleum

UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT: A CONSTRAINT ON THE CHÁVEZ

VISION?

USA AS SEEN BY THE VENEZUELAN PEOPLE

Many supporters of Bolivarian revolution have brought into Chávez’s negative view of the Untied States

Positive view of the U.S. at all time low (35% in poll of public opinion – Sept. 2005)

Bolivarians see some groups in U.S. as allies in their struggle with U.S. ruling elite Poor Leftist academics