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Page 1: ,t| 4@| ?} |i ,giU| Lu N?i@h?i W?UL4i L? w@MLh ,@h? ?}tc 5@ ?}t @? ˇL?t4T| L…bsacerdo/wpapers/aug1a.pdf ·  · 2000-08-30#L?@*_ +M ? O@h @h_ N? iht |) hUi 5@Uih_L|i #@h|4L| ˇL**i}i

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Vhqw Uhvsrqvhv Uhvsrqvh Udwhvpdlolqj zlqqhuv orvhuv zlqqhuv orvhuv zlqqhuv orvhuv wrwdo

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Page 23: ,t| 4@| ?} |i ,giU| Lu N?i@h?i W?UL4i L? w@MLh ,@h? ?}tc 5@ ?}t @? ˇL?t4T| L…bsacerdo/wpapers/aug1a.pdf ·  · 2000-08-30#L?@*_ +M ? O@h @h_ N? iht |) hUi 5@Uih_L|i #@h|4L| ˇL**i}i

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phdq +v1g1, phdq phdq w0vwdw phdq w0vwdw

\hduo| Sul}h 5917 +831;, 3 8815 ^4717` 49313 ^5317 `\hdu Zrq <1; +415, <19 <1< ^613 ` 4314 ^414 `Wlfnhwv Erxjkw 616 +51<, 515 719 ^4315` 813 ^31< `Djh 831548: +4619;78, 86153;8 791<784 ^0815585` 8316589 ^41:;73`DjhA88 31685; +317:;6, 317657 31598; ^061<643` 316<86 ^514698`DjhA98 3147<5 +316899, 314<64 314346 ^051;;74` 3153<6 ^519554`Pdoh 3196 +317; , 319: 318; ^0514 ` 31;7 ^61< `\hduv ri Vfkrrolqj 461: +515, 4717 4613 ^0:1;` 451; ^0319 `Froohjh 3198 +317;, 31:; 3184 ^0919` 3186 ^317 `Zrunlqj Wkhq 31:; +3174 , 31:: 31;3 ^31< ` 31;9 ^414 `Hduqlqjv \hdu 09 461;759 +46168;6, 4818939 441<984 ^06134;:` 4718:<5 ^419457`Hduqlqjv \hdu 08 4714539 +461:8;3, 481<88: 4514486 ^061465;` 4814:87 ^41;8<4`Hduqlqjv \hdu 07 47153;< +4713886, 4914<8; 45136:7 ^0616579` 4913<5< ^5178;;`Hduqlqjv \hdu 06 471;36: +471:995, 49194<5 451;4<9 ^051;;69` 4:1457; ^517<63`Hduqlqjv \hdu 05 48194<9 +48159;6, 4:18:;: 4617:;: ^0613448` 491;67: ^41;;96`Hduqlqjv \hdu 04 4916445 +481:34;, 4:1<<;5 47179:9 ^051847<` 4:15884 ^417;9;`Hduqlqjv \hdu 3 4913857 +481:<<<, 4;157<8 4619848 ^06159;<` 461::;: ^3139<4`Hduqlqjv \hdu 4 48173;6 +491548:, 4;17<7< 4513685 ^07184::` <17878 ^0417487`Hduqlqjv \hdu 5 4719;8< +491678:, 4:19833 4417798 ^0715<8;` ;176<7 ^04194:7`Hduqlqjv \hdu 6 4714;47 +4915;88, 4:14739 431<7:7 ^071637;` ;1:6:4 ^0414<96`Hduqlqjv \hdu 7 461:<94 +4915974, 491;<37 4317479 ^0718487` :1864; ^04193<:`Hduqlqjv \hdu 8 461957: +4916488, 4919837 43164;4 ^0716<9;` :1:<34 ^0416<7;`Hduqlqjv \hdu 9 4615635 +491753<, 481:9;3 431789; ^0619758` 91;396 ^041<:47`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 09 319<68 +317948, 319;:6 31:337 ^3164:3` 319<:: ^0313766`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 08 31:3<: +317877, 319:<8 31:759 ^418799` 319845 ^04184:4`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 07 31:44: +317867, 319<44 31:675 ^413898` 31:53< ^0315497`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 06 31:369 +3178:4, 319:8: 31:675 ^417585` 31:775 ^314968`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 05 31:3:: +317886, 319:8: 31:759 ^4196;7` 319<:: ^031:75;`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 04 31:46: +317858, 319<44 31:6;7 ^41495:` 319<:: ^03199<6`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 3 31:3<: +317877, 319;:6 31:675 ^4147<4` 319<:: ^0318<9;`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 4 319:<7 +3179:5, 319:<8 319:<6 ^0313383` 317;;7 ^06133<4`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 5 319643 +317;63, 31973< 319536 ^0317:8;` 3174;9 ^06138:;`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 6 31933; +317<35, 3194:; 318;56 ^031;37<` 316<86 ^051:;34`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 7 318;5: +317<69, 319433 31885: ^0415<54` 316589 ^0616:96`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 8 318;9: +317<5<, 318<79 318:;4 ^0316:5<` 3167;; ^061765:`Srv Hduqlqjv \hdu 9 318958 +317<99, 318:47 31885: ^03174;6` 316589 ^0616:96`Fdu Ydoxh 4;15638 +4:1:<48, 491985: 4<1<87< ^51355<` 5<19583 ^617;97`Qhw Fdu Ydoxh 48184<3 +471;85;, 4816653 481:479 ^3158<8` 581:536 ^713666`Krxvlqj Ydoxh 49915<;9 +4441884<, 4:71<475 4891;956 ^041:;55` 54;144<3 ^717694`Qhw Krxvlqj Ydoxh 4551457: +<81786;, 47719468 <:18<47 ^08176<9` 44515833 ^4168;7`Uhwluhphqw Dffrxqwv 9719973 +4351:;88, <51957: 67175<3 ^0914779` 671893< ^313499`Rwkhu Ilqdqfldo Dvv1 ;716378 +4841<793, <41:;48 :913<:5 ^0413<84` 45:13;38 ^5133:6`Wrwdo Ilqdqfldo Dvv1 466169:6 +4<517<34, 49717874 <<16<7; ^061;443` 4831<3;5 ^5137;4`

Page 24: ,t| 4@| ?} |i ,giU| Lu N?i@h?i W?UL4i L? w@MLh ,@h? ?}tc 5@ ?}t @? ˇL?t4T| L…bsacerdo/wpapers/aug1a.pdf ·  · 2000-08-30#L?@*_ +M ? O@h @h_ N? iht |) hUi 5@Uih_L|i #@h|4L| ˇL**i}i

A@M*i �G .t|�6B|jt Nu �Bi}�AB, �iNVjAt�|+ |N .BiA N�| Nu PAjBiAja YAWN6jH vjBi,+

wN||ji+ �B+6jA|t Bt -�}�|��BAa 7�aj XBi�BO,j

L LL LLL LY Y YL YLL YLLL

Dyh Srvw Orwwhu| Hduq 031384 031385 03137; 031384 031447 0313<: 031376 031455 031434+31347, +31346, +3133<, +3133;, +31348, +31345, +31343, +31353, +3135<,

\hdu 3 Hduq 03134< 031355 03134: 031353 03136; 031366 031348 031357 31337+31347, +31346, +31337, +31337, +3133;, +3133:, +31339, +31343, +31348,

\hdu 4 Hduq 03137; 03137< 031378 031383 031436 0313;< 03136; 0313<7 031389+31347, +31347, +3133:, +3133:, +31347, +31344, +3133<, +3134:, +31358,

\hdu 5 Hduq 031385 031387 031383 031387 031447 0313<; 031378 03144: 0313<5+31347, +31347, +3133<, +3133<, +31349, +31346, +31344, +31354, +31364,

\hdu 6 Hduq 031384 031386 03137; 031386 03144; 031433 031376 031467 03144:+31347, +31347, +31343, +3133<, +3134:, +31347, +31345, +31356, +31366,

\hdu 7 Hduq 031389 03138: 031385 031388 03145: 03143: 031377 031484 031466+31347, +31346, +31343, +31343, +3134<, +31348, +31345, +31357, +31367,

\hdu 8 Hduq 031385 031383 031379 031383 03144: 0313<< 031374 03146: 031449+31347, +31346, +31344, +31344, +31353, +31349, +31346, +31359, +31369,

\hdu 9 Hduq 031383 03137< 031378 031379 031439 0313<3 03137: 031434 0313<7+31347, +31346, +31345, +31344, +31354, +3134:, +31346, +3135:, +3136:,

Lqglylgxdo Frqwurov Qr \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hvOdjjhg Hduqlqjv Qr Qr Qr \hv \hv \hv \hv \hvOrvhuv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv Qr \hv Qr\hduo| Sul}h A433 \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv Qr QrTxdgudwlf lq Sul}h Qr Qr Qr Qr \hv Qr Qr QrGl�huhqfh Rxwfrphv Qr Qr \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv

Page 25: ,t| 4@| ?} |i ,giU| Lu N?i@h?i W?UL4i L? w@MLh ,@h? ?}tc 5@ ?}t @? ˇL?t4T| L…bsacerdo/wpapers/aug1a.pdf ·  · 2000-08-30#L?@*_ +M ? O@h @h_ N? iht |) hUi 5@Uih_L|i #@h|4L| ˇL**i}i

A@M*i eG .t|�6B|jt Nu �Bi}�AB, �iNVjAt�|+ |N �NAt�6j ��| Nu PAjBiAja YAWN6jH YA|ji�

BW|�NAt ��|� �i�Ni wBONi �Bi"j| Q�t|Ni+e 7j!e �}je .a�WB|�NA BAa C�6j 7�AWj b�AA�A}

Rxwfrph Sulru Hduqlqjv Pdoh 88?Djh?@98 DjhA98 Froohjh \hduv VlqfhSrvlwlyh Zlqqlqj

Dyh Srvw Orwwhu| Hduq 03153< 031335 03149: 031334 3136: 031343+313;7, +3138:, +313:3, +313<3, +31394, +31355,

\hdu 3 Hduq 031347 31348 0313<7 031337 03135: 31339+31378, +31364, +3136;, +3137<, +31366, +31345,

\hdu 4 Hduq 03143; 03138: 031537 031378 31376 31334+313:6, +31383, +31394, +313:<, +31386, +3134<,

\hdu 5 Hduq 0314:8 031353 031548 03136< 313;9 031358+313;;, +31393, +313:6, +313<8, +31397, +31357,

\hdu 6 Hduq 031558 3138; 0314:; 31336 31373 031337+313<:, +31399, +313;4, +31437, +313:3, +31359,

\hdu 7 Hduq 03148; 031338 031433 313<< 3133< 031357+31436, +313:3, +313;8, +31443, +313:7, +3135:,

\hdu 8 Hduq 031568 31333 03145: 31365 031334 031335+3143;, +313:7, +313<3, +31449, +313:;, +3135<,

\hdu 9 Hduq 031688 3133< 0314:: 03138: 31378 03133<+31443, +313:8, +313<4, +3144;, +313:<, +3135<,

Page 26: ,t| 4@| ?} |i ,giU| Lu N?i@h?i W?UL4i L? w@MLh ,@h? ?}tc 5@ ?}t @? ˇL?t4T| L…bsacerdo/wpapers/aug1a.pdf ·  · 2000-08-30#L?@*_ +M ? O@h @h_ N? iht |) hUi 5@Uih_L|i #@h|4L| ˇL**i}i

A@M*i DG .t|�6B|jt Nu �Bi}�AB, �iNVjAt�|+ |N �NAt�6j N�| Nu PAjBiAja YAWN6jH �WW��

6�,B|ja wN||ji+ �B+6jA|t Bt -�}�|��BAa 7�aj XBi�BO,j

L LL LLL LY Y YL YLL YLLL

Ydoxh Fduv 3133; 3133; 3133; 3133< 3133< 3133< 31344 31347+31334, +31334, +31335, +31336, +31336, +31335, +31337, +3133:,

Qhw Ydoxh Fduv 31339 31339 31339 31339 31339 3133: 3133: 31346+31334, +31334, +31334, +31336, +31336, +31335, +31337, +31339,

Ydoxh Krxvh 3135: 31367 31365 31345 31346 31374 31344 3136:+3133<, +3133<, +3133<, +3134<, +3134;, +31343, +31356, +3135:,

Qhw Ydoxh Krxvh 03133< 031335 031338 031358 031358 31343 03134< 31357+3133;, +3133;, +3133;, +31349, +31349, +3133;, +31354, +31357,

Uhwluhphqw Dffrxqwv 031359 031348 031348 03137: 031379 031336 03137< 031335+3133<, +3133<, +3133;, +3134:, +3134:, +31339, +31355, +3134<,

Rwkhu Ilqdqfldo Dvv1 31364 31374 3136< 31398 31397 3136< 313<7 314;6+31345, +31345, +31346, +3135:, +31359, +3134<, +31367, +31394,

Wrwdo Ilqdqfldo Dvv1 3133; 3135: 3135; 31356 31356 31375 31375 3148;+31349, +31348, +31349, +31365, +31364, +3134<, +31373, +31389,

Lqglylgxdo Frqwurov Qr \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hvOdjjhg Hduqlqjv Qr Qr Qr \hv \hv \hv \hv \hvOrvhuv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv Qr \hv Qr\hduo| Sul}h A433 \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv Qr QrTxdgudwlf lq Sul}h Qr Qr Qr Qr \hv Qr Qr QrGl�huhqfh Rxwfrphv Qr Qr \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv \hv

Page 27: ,t| 4@| ?} |i ,giU| Lu N?i@h?i W?UL4i L? w@MLh ,@h? ?}tc 5@ ?}t @? ˇL?t4T| L…bsacerdo/wpapers/aug1a.pdf ·  · 2000-08-30#L?@*_ +M ? O@h @h_ N? iht |) hUi 5@Uih_L|i #@h|4L| ˇL**i}i

A@M*i SG .t|�6B|jt Nu �Bi}�AB, �iNVjAt�|+ |N �NAt�6j ��| Nu PAjBiAja YAWN6jH YA|ji�

BW|�NAt ��|� �i�Ni wBONi �Bi"j| Q�t|Ni+e 7j!e �}je .a�WB|�NA BAa C�6j 7�AWj b�AA�A}

Rxwfrph Sulru Hduqlqjv Pdoh 88?Djh?@98 DjhA98 Froohjh \hduv VlqfhSrvlwlyh Zlqqlqj

Ydoxh Fduv 031359 031334 31346 031345 03133; 031333+31345, +3133;, +31343, +31346, +3133;, +31336,

Qhw Ydoxh Fduv 031334 31345 031337 31345 031338 31338+31343, +3133;, +3133<, +31345, +3133:, +31336,

Ydoxh Krxvh 313;3 03134; 31335 031345 31339 031346+31396, +31377, +31383, +313:;, +3137;, +3134;,

Qhw Ydoxh Krxvh 31357 031349 31366 031394 031338 031334+3138;, +31373, +31378, +313:4, +31377, +31349,

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−6 −4 −2 0 2 4 60

0.5

1

1.5

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4 Figure 1: Average Earnings for Losers, Winners and Big Winners

Ear

ning

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Tho

usan

ds o

f Dol

lars

Year Relative to Winning

−6 −4 −2 0 2 4 60

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Figure 1: Average Earnings for Losers, Winners and Big Winners

Pro

port

ion

with

Pos

itive

Ear

ning

s

Year Relative to Winning